Prospect Profile: Michael Taylor
by John Sickels on Jul 23, 2009 1:50 PM EDT
23 comments
Prospect Profile: Michael Taylor
Michael Taylor was a fifth round pick in 2007 out of Stanford. Although an excellent athlete with physical strength, a strong throwing arm, and decent speed, his college performance was erratic, and he never quite lived up to expectations. He did show improved power during his junior year, hitting .335/.395/.584 with 12 homers, but a lot of scouts doubted that his swing mechanics would work with wooden bats. Indeed, he hit just .227/.300/.385 in the New York-Penn League after signing in 2007. I did put him in the 2008 book, noting his physical potential and the fact that he was very intelligent, giving him a Grade C rating.
Taylor made adjustments to his swing during '08 spring training, and the results were remarkable: he hit .361/.441/.554 in 67 games for Lakewood in the Sally League, then .329/.380/.560 in 65 games for Clearwater in the Florida State League, hitting 39 doubles, 19 homers, stealing 15 bases, and posting a 50/89 BB/K ratio in 492 at-bats last year. Scouts reported that his swing still needed some adjustments, and not everyone believed that he'd be able to repeat these numbers against advanced pitching. I wrote in the 2009 book that Taylor had long arms and might be vulnerable to inside pitches at higher levels, giving him a rather conservative Grade B rating.
The Phillies opened Taylor in Double-A this year, with outstanding results: .333/.408/.569, 15 homers, 18 steals in 22 attempts, and a 35/51 BB/K ratio in 318 at-bats. He was promoted to Triple-A last week, and so far he's 5-for-24 (.208) with two doubles, a homer, three walks, and seven strikeouts. Obviously the Triple-A sample size is too small to mean much at this point, but by the end of August we will have a better read on how he's made the adjustment. Certainly his Eastern League numbers are very much in line with what he did last year.
There are a lot of things to like about Taylor. He's always had the tools, and his skill advancement looks legitimate to me. He uses his intelligence well, studying pitchers and showing the ability to make needed adjustments with his swing and his strike zone judgment. His work ethic is highly-rated. Of course, being smart and hard-working doesn't mean you'll succeed even when you have the physical tools to go with it, but it certainly helps a lot, and right now I think Taylor deserves the benefit of the doubt. He's definitely a Grade B+ prospect at least right now, and if the end-of-season Triple-A numbers are solid he could get a Grade A-.
He turns 24 in December, so he's not a super-young prospect, giving him less future projection than a Jason Heyward or Michael Stanton. But Taylor's across-the-board tools and blossoming skills are very intriguing; he doesn't have an "old player" profile. I can see him developing into something like a cross between Hunter Pence and Mike Cameron.
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Carlos Lee?
Maybe Taylor’s best case scenario, from strictly a numbers standpoint, is El Caballo. They certainly aren’t a match physically but it seems that both are high-contact line-drive hitters (note the low K rates) who hit into alot of double plays (Taylor has 14 GDP’s already this year) but also are effective base stealers for their size? This is assuming that Taylor continues to develop his power stroke…
Boomer.
by glamboomer on Jul 23, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lee
I could see that as a statistical comp, though you are right about the fact that they aren’t similar physically.
by John Sickels on Jul 23, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you really think he'll hit for Lee's power?
I see Taylor hitting more doubles than homers in comparison to Lee. I’m more favorable toward the Cameron comp or maybe even something similar to Granderson, just a bigger version. I just don’t see him running as much as Granderson. I think Taylor gets 10-15 bases a year just based on physical aptitude.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Jul 23, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
Well it is possible as a maximal outcome. I still prefer a Pence/Cameron mutant cross.
by John Sickels on Jul 23, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
John,
Let’s say you are the Jays and the Phillies have given you a choice of Taylor or Dominic Brown. Whom do you choose and why?
You are obsessed with bodily wastes A turd being held under my nose, this team being a steaming pile, Jonny Donuts having a stinky diaper, the front office pissing themselves, the team crapping the bed…
I think you should seek counselling.
(AJM to Josey Donuts)
by Michael Cave on Jul 23, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
tough
That’s tough…i like both of them.
I’d probably go with Brown because he is younger, just as toolsy as Taylor, also has good makeup, but unleashed it at an earlier age. But Taylor will be ready sooner, so you could make a case for him too.
by John Sickels on Jul 23, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well if Drabek is untouchable
then the Jays probably won’t have to choose, they’d probably insist on both.
by ayjackson on Jul 23, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would the Jays want 2 OFs?
They already have Rios and Lind at the major league level, and Snider just below. Even assuming that Lind and Snider play DH between them, there is still only 1 OF spot (even assuming they find somebody to take Vernon Wells off their hands)
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by OldProspects on Jul 24, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Id give them Brown
Like John says, both nice players with a lot to like. Maybe Brown gives you more speed, but the production possibilities from Taylor are tough to beat.
He can be a #3 or #4 hitter for a championship level team. To top it off Taylor has a year less experience and is already 2 levels above Brown.
Brown is nice, but hes probably still 2 years away.
Taylor has bigger upside imo, and if the Jays were asking for one or the other, I would give up the guy with the lower ceiling and the longer time to mlb.
by backtocali on Jul 23, 2009 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've heard
rumor that Brown will end up in Double-A to end the year. If that’s the case then he’s still just a level behind Taylor and two years and three months younger. Taylor started Double-A at 23 and Brown could be an every day major league OF by 23. I think the age difference is far more signficant in both developmental and practical terms than people are allowing. You can’t simply say Taylor has a year less experience; he’s a college hitter. Taylor would be expected to be more advanced based on both age and experience. If anything, he’s probably not as far ahead of Brown as should be expected considering those factors.
by blackoutyears on Jul 23, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brown is in single-A
and not doing all that hot. I would trade Brown in an instant. Michael Taylor is going to be a much better player.
by FanBall on Jul 24, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brown would have to have as much value as Taylor though
And I really don’t see why anyone would want Brown more than Taylor.
by FanBall on Jul 24, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Kemp
I’m trying to get a feel for what type of player Michael Taylor will be and was curious what people think about Matt Kemp as a comp for Taylor.
Both are big guys with very good athleticism who struggled somewhat early on to translate their tools into baseball skills.
I guess the obvious difference is that Kemp was drafted out of high school, while Taylor was a Stanford guy. So, Kemp was a bit younger when he climbed the ladder.
Kemp reached triple-A at age 21 and spent time there at age 22 as well. Taylor just reached triple-A at age 23. Over his minor league career, Kemp had a slash line of .311/.359/.519/.878. While Taylor has a line of .315/.386/.519/.904. However, Kemp also spent some time in a very good environment for hitters in Las Vegas.
Kemp struck out once every 4.9 ABs in the minors, while Taylor is currently at once every 5.3 ABs. Both have good speed with Taylor swiping 43 bases at a 74% success rate, while Kemp swiped 69 bases at a 76% clip.
As of now, I’d give the edge to Kemp on defense (I don’t see Taylor in center anytime soon) and on the bases (Kemp has turned into a pretty good thief), but Taylor seems to have the better approach at the plate. He draws walks at a better clip and strikes out less frequently.
Is Kemp in the ballpark as a comp? Or, is it too optimistic? If so, how does it fall short? Taylor lacks comparable speed? Power? What kind of upside does Taylor really have?
by Lark11 on Jul 25, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kemp
he shares a lot of the same skills. If Taylor could reach that level of production, the Phillies would have one of the most versatile outfields in the league. I think Werth wouldn’t be a bad comp either, not quite the same body’s but some comparable talents.
by smoooooth on Jul 25, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Werth
Interesting. I’m a huge fan of Werth. He’s probably my favorite player going. He’s got all the tools, all the skills, and a big baseball IQ. He’s a very heady player, as evidenced by his straight steal of home. To use the old Bill James term, he’s a great “percentage player.”
I didn’t consider Werth as a comp because I find his defining characteristic to be his ability to control the strikezone. He sees a ridiculous amount of pitches per plate appearance (always 4.5+) and draws a massive amount of walks. I’d love to see Taylor develop that kind of plate discipline, but that always strikes me as more of a tool than a developed skill. Taylor’s plate discipline is solid to good, but not “Werth-ian.” :) Still, they are both tall, athletic outfielders with run producing offensive games.
I tossed Kemp out there because he seems to combine the elements of the other comps I have seen mentioned. Carlos Lee strikes me as a good comp because he has the type of quality run production that I expect out of Taylor, but he strikes me as an inappropriate comp because he doesn’t seem to have the athleticism. I like the Hunter Pence and Mike Cameron comps because they have the athleticism I expect from Taylor, but I don’t like them because they don’t quite have the run producing skill that I expect.
Ultimately, I’m not sure who would be the best comp for Taylor. I’d much prefer it to be a Werth/Kemp comp, but maybe that’s expecting too much from Taylor. Still, his production has improved at triple-A as the sample size has increased. He’s up to .290/.389/.548/.937 for the IronPigs. Maybe Werth/Kemp isn’t a reach after all.
by Lark11 on Jul 25, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's got the talent
to succeed, but like any young player, the real skill is translating it to the major league level. If he is as savvy and intelligent as mentioned above, then he’s got as good as chance as any to make that transition.
by smoooooth on Jul 25, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True
Unfortunately, the Phillies don’t have a place for him right now or in the foreseeable future. Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth aren’t going any where any time soon. So, I’m not sure what they’ll do with him. I’m anxious to see him in the majors and he’s looking like he’s just about ready. Now, if only he had an opportunity…
by Lark11 on Jul 25, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
how many years is Ibanez signed for? he’s doing incredible this year, but (without checking), isn’t he already older (mid 30s?). I would think that Victorino is the most indespensable of the trio because of his defense in CF and his offensive versatility. I guess the question would be who had greater trade value, Werth or Taylor. Whoever has the greater value they could trade and insert the other.
by ScottAZ on Jul 25, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Philly Outfield
The 37 year old Ibanez got a three year deal prior to this year. In 2009, he’s making only $6.5M, but it goes up to $11.5M in 2010 and 2011. They locked Werth into a 2-year deal this offseason and Victorino still has a year or two before free agency.
So, I’m not sure what they’re going to do. Given the type of season he is having, I don’t think they trade Jayson Werth. Ditto for Ibanez. I guess they could shift Werth to center and plug Taylor into right, but Victorino has been damn good as well.
At this point, it just seems like Taylor is the odd man out, especially since the Phils are built to win now. They should pay what it costs to get Halladay and try to repeat as WS champs this year. And, they’d have him for next year as well.
by Lark11 on Jul 25, 2009 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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