Double-A Transition Monitor: Jhoulys Chacin

by John Sickels on Jul 21, 2009 2:01 PM EDT Comment 39 comments

All Systems Normal

Chacin was signed by the Rockies out of Venezuela in 2004. He made his North American debut with Casper in the Pioneer League in 2007, posting a 3.13 ERA with a 77/26 K/BB ratio in 92 innings, with 85 hits allowed, including a 2.70 GO/AO ratio. I listed him as a sleeper in the 2008 book, giving him a Grade C+. Scouts reported he had an 89-92 MPH sinker, mixing it with a solid curveball and changeup.

He began 2008 with Asheville in the Sally League, posting a 10-1, 1.86 mark in 16 starts with a 98/30 K/BB in 111 innings, 82 hits allowed and a 2.83 GO/AO. Promoted to Modesto in the Cal League at mid-season, he continued to pitch very well with a 8-2, 2.31 mark with a 62/12 K/BB in 66 innings, 61 hits, maintaining the same 2.83 GO/AO. He boosted his velocity slightly and improved his changeup, and I gave him a Grade B+ in the book this year.

Some scouts thought he might struggle at higher levels, but so far this hasn't happened, his Double-A Transition has gone quite well: 8-6, 3.17 with an 86/35 K/BB in 102 innings for Tulsa, 87 hits with a 1.92 GO/AO. Although the GO/AO isn't as extreme, it still shows a strong ground ball tendency. Looking at his other ratios, his walk rate has risen slightly, 3.1 BB/9 this year compared to 2.5 in rookie ball, 2.4 in the Sally League, and 1.6 in the Cal League. His strikeout rate is reduced slightly from last year, 7.6 compared to 7.9 in the Sally and 8.4 in the Cal. . .it was 7.5 in the Pioneer. All of this seems like normal variation/slight ratio slippage to be expected for a guy moving up a level.

Looking more specifically at the 2009 splits, he had a rough start with a 4.87 ERA and just 12 strikeouts in 20 innings in April, but his strikeout rate has been on an upward trend since then and he's pitched very well in May, June, and July. His other splits are nondescript; lefties have a slight platoon edge (.239 vs. 217 for right-handers) but it is nothing out of the ordinary.

Basically his Double-A transition is going very well, and I don't see anything to make me change my rating of him. As long as he remains healthy, Chacin projects as a solid starting pitcher. He could stand to improve his control some, and I'd like to see him get at least a half season of Triple-A under his belt before he gets to the majors sometime in 2010. At age 21, there is no need to rush him.

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Is it true that...

Chacin has been focusing on his two seam fastball this year as opposed to his curve and change up? From a recent BA article:

“Harvey said Chacin’s fastball and changeup are both above-average offerings and his curveball shows flashes of being an above-average pitch, as well. This year, more so than last year, Chacin has really been focusing on his two-seam fastball. He’s still learning how to locate the pitch, which has caused him to walk more batters and pitch in more hitter’s counts. Harvey said Chacin still needs to trust the pitch, but right now he’s still throwing it for the outside corner versus lefthanded batters and oftentimes it’s breaking away for a ball.”

If this is the case, and he is displaying 3 plus pitches by next year, could you see him as an A-/A prospect? Is he the best prospect in the Rockies system currently?

by soccerman0 on Jul 21, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

questions

1) Maybe. I might go with A- depending on what the final numbers look like.
2) Yeah.

by John Sickels on Jul 21, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really

whos the second one? I don’t think I can classify Ian Stewert in there anymore

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Friedrich....

most likely…

or Matzek…if you are an optimist.

by DenverBears on Jul 22, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so

not that much, very bad

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

very bad?

Chacin/Friedrich isn’t a horrible 1/2—there are teams much worse.

by DenverBears on Jul 23, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Esmil Rogers most likley

Friedrich 3rd….

by sg8335aa on Jul 23, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he signs, definitely Matzek

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by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the response!

Great article as always!

by soccerman0 on Jul 21, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Much appreciated

Thanks John. He’s on my dynasty team because of you and I haven’t regretted it for a second.

Just wondering what peoples takes are on why the Rockies aren’t part of the Halladay trade talks? Chacin, Fredreich, Fowler, Gomez and the forgotten Franklin Morales. Three of those guys and Hector Gomez for Halladay might be enough for the Rockies to win the wildcard. I’d say make the push now while you still have control of Helton and Hawpe.

by rutgersjpm on Jul 21, 2009 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Payroll

Ownership is often criticized for being cheap, and adding $15.75 million to the 2010 payroll may not be something they’d be willing to do, particularly since starting pitching isn’t really a pressing need.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jul 21, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rotation

Aaron Cook is not an “ace”. If you ask me he’s an OK number 2. Bringing in Halladay would give you a playoff caliber ace AND a very good #3. Ubaldo Jiminez is a good second starter, but a great third starter IMHO. Ownership needs to wake their butts up. Joe Koshansky is no Todd Helton.

by rutgersjpm on Jul 21, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Helton? Koshansky?

I don’t want to be nit-picky, but if Helton weren’t under control the Rockies could re-sign him for less money than he is being paid now—if they wanted to. Having Helton under contract for that amount of money is not really a big factor in the Rockies success given the amount of resources tied up in a 1B that now has below average power.

Second, Koshansky is no Todd Helton—he also isn’t with the Rockies.

by DenverBears on Jul 22, 2009 7:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Screwed that up, didn’t realize Koshaksy was in the Brewers system now.

All I was getting at is they don’t have replacements for Helton or Hawpe, their two best offensive players and guys that were originally drafted by the Rockies. They should be pleasantly surprised how well Helton has recovered from surgery. He might not slug .600 again, but he is 6th amongst NL first baseman in slugging percentage. Hawpe will be a discounted player through 2011 if he gets his option. If he doesn’t, he’s gone after next year. Once these 2 guys are gone, management will have their work cut out for them.

Lose Atkins, give Stewart the starting 3B job. That’s $7mil off the books, therefore Halladay only costs them $8mil more next year. Not a bad price to pay if they can win the West one out of the next 2 years.

by rutgersjpm on Jul 22, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not bad

and if the rockies were to deal Helton and atkins, and get Halladay, maybe make a throw in the Halladay deal like Kevin Millar to fill in

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but one concern about Halladay

is that he has never pitched a post season game, I bet he will be dominant as always but its just a thought

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope

you’re joking.

by richieabernathy on Jul 23, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i am

but seriously, a lot of players choke in the playoffs, I don’t think he will be one that chokes though

by The_Fan on Jul 23, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Futures Impression

John, I was wondering what your thoughts were about the movement on Chacin’s sinker during the Futures Game? He seemed to locate it really well keeping low in the strike zone and the movement at least from my perspective was a pretty nasty drop. Another pitcher I suppose who has a similar repertoire is Cahill.

by ChalupaCabrera on Jul 21, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Halladay can refuse any trade

Do you think he’d accept a trade to Colorado? What top-flight starter would?

by blackoutyears on Jul 22, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's from Colorado...

so my guess is yes.

The point is moot, however, since the chances of the Rockies trading for him is about 0%.

by DenverBears on Jul 22, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

if being from Colorado outweighs all the negatives for a pitcher in his position. Not only is it a bad pitching environment, there’s no reason to believe that the Rox are any closer to contending than the Jays, and Halladay has made it clear that winning is a huge factor in his decision to sign off on a trade destination.

by blackoutyears on Jul 22, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just a note on the Colorado/Halladay possibility....

This came out on BA today: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2009/268579.html

If Chacin and Rogers are “untouchable” then I don’t beleive a trade will come to fruition.

by soccerman0 on Jul 22, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball America

doesn’t run the Rockies.

by richieabernathy on Jul 23, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They specifically say that they are probably not untouchable if Halladay was on the table.

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by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

contending....

last I checked the Rockies are leading the wild card race.

by DenverBears on Jul 22, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

By a game and a half

Also, look at the numbers the Rockies staff have put up this year. You can pitch there now as opposed to 5 years ago.

by sg8335aa on Jul 23, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that has as much to do with the pitchers they have as the feasibility of pitching there. It would be interesting to see how much things have improved for opposing pitchers. That’s probably the true test.

by blackoutyears on Jul 23, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure

but it’s been an erratic year to say the least. I guess they probably have one more managerial firing in them to get into the playoffs. ;-)

And this is about next year as well. I like the Rockies as much as anyone outside of COL can, but they don’t have the sort of personnel that guarantees consistent contention.

by blackoutyears on Jul 23, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome writeup John

Could you compare him to Omar Poveda of the Rangers. This morning we were discussing Poveda in our prospect rankings and someone brought up Chacin and their stats are eerily similar sans the strikeouts which Poveda has seen a sharp decline in this year. Some of us Ranger fans attribute that not to declining stuff but rather a switch in philosophy on the mound and working on some stuff.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jul 22, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Stuff

I would love to have a job like this. You work for BA right?

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

facepalm

by jibs on Jul 22, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what?

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um, no

Um, no. I work here, and I work for Rotowire, and I work for myself.

by John Sickels on Jul 22, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well Chacin is out after pitching only one inning this evening....

Call-up? Injury? Trade? Let the speculation begin.

by soccerman0 on Jul 22, 2009 8:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Call-up

and major league, at least that’s the word.

by blackoutyears on Jul 23, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Well, its been mentioned before, but Roy Halladay is a Denver native.

Lets say the Rockies wanted to make this kind of deal… whats it gonna take? Chacin and Carlos Gonzalez… that would get my attention if Im JP Ricciardi. Dexter Fowler? What if they included someone like Ianetta? They could definitely make this happen if they wanted.

I could see this. Unlikely as hell and just made up blogger b/s at this point – not even a legit source… but its so strange thay Chacin would be pulled like that and a reason like that given. What organizational demands could make you pull a guy like that? What? Does AAA need an emergency starter?? Weird…

by alskor on Jul 23, 2009 3:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It'll need a big piece beyond Chacin and Carlos Gonzalez

In terms of value, Fowler might be enough except where would the Blue Jays play him and Gonzalez when they already have Rios, Lind and Snider? (presumably Lind and/or Snider move to DH, but there’s still only one slot left). Iannetta might do it, though if I were the Blue Jays

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by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs