Not a Rookie: Jonathan Sanchez
by John Sickels on Jul 20, 2009 1:25 PM EDT
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PrintSanchez has drawn attention due to his no-hitter earlier this month. Let's see how he developed as a prospect.
Jonathan Sanchez was drafted by the Giants in the 27th round in 2004, out of Ohio Dominican University. From Puerto Rico, Sanchez was excellent in college, pitching for a strong NAIA program, and he could easily have gone much higher in the draft. He posted a 4.84 ERA with a 34/19 K/BB in 22 innings in the Northwest League after signing, but while his command needed improvement, scouts were impressed with his 90-94 MPH fastball and promising, if erratic, curveball. I gave him a Grade C, noting the strong strikeout rate but the need for better command.
Sanchez spent 2005 with Augusta in the Sally League, going 5-7, 4.08 but with a 166/39 K/BB in 126 innings, with 122 hits allowed. His K/IP and K/BB marks were outstanding, and scouts reported improvement with his curveball and changeup. I gave him a Grade B- in the 2006 book, writing that Sanchez was "one of the better-kept secrets in the minor leagues" and that he had a chance to emerge as a top prospect.
2006 began with Sanchez at Double-A Connecticut, where he posted a 1.15 ERA with a 46/9 K/BB in 31 innings, being used as a starter and reliever. Promoted to Triple-A Fresno, he posted a 3.80 ERA with a 26/13 K/BB in 24 innings, with just 13 hits allowed. He ended up pitching 40 innings in the majors, mostly in relief, posting a 4.95 ERA with a 33/23 K/BB. He made some adjustments to his mechanics that boosted his velocity into the 92-94 range more consistently, and his breaking ball and changeup continued to come along. I gave him a Grade B in the 2007 book. The main question going forward was role: would he start or relieve? I wrote that the could end up being a very impressive power reliever, and that his stuff was good enough that he wouldn't have to be just a LOOGY.
Sanchez spent most of 2007 in the Giants bullpen, posting a 5.88 ERA but with a 62/28 K/BB in 52 innings. He moved to the rotation fulltime in 2008, going 9-12 but with a 5.01 ERA and a 157/75 K/BB in 158 innings. This year he's 3-8, 4.69 with a 79/46 K/BB in 79 innings, including the no-hitter. He continues to post very impressive K/IP ratios, reflecting his stuff, but still struggles with his command at times.
Pitch F/X has his fastball averaging 91.3 MPH this year, peaking as high as 96 MPH. His curveball, slider, and changeup give him a complete arsenal, and again it's just a matter of developing more consistent command. From a prospect perspective, Sanchez always stood out for his excellent K/IP ratios in the minor leagues. He was rushed to some extent and didn't get much Triple-A experience, and that has probably slowed down his development a bit. On the other hand, he spent 2006 and 2007 mostly in a relief role for the Giants with just an occasional spot start, the old Earl Weaver method of easing a young pitcher into a major league job.
Going forward, PECOTA entering 2009 brought up some intriguing comps: Erik Bedard, Pete Richert, Ken Kravec, Casey Fossum, Rich Wortham, Mike Kilkenny, Mark Langston, Cliff Lee, Bob Ojeda, and Tom Underwood being the top ten comps. Most of those make sense, lefties with live arms but control problems. Can Sanchez take the route of Cliff Lee or Mark Langston, or will he fizzle out?
The other thing I find interesting is his background, a guy from Puerto Rico who went to an NAIA school. Ohio Dominican is a solid program and shouldn't have been underscouted. The fact that you can find an arm like this in the 27th round shows the uncertainty of the entire draft process.
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Still a fan
I guess I’m a sucker for power lefty starters with potential. That said, I’ll be the first to say that his inability to get the walks into a livable rate (say, in the 3’s) is quite disconcerting. I almost think he’s being undersold a bit. I understand why, but that’s a talented lefty arm with some major league success.
Slider
Isn’t Sanchez’s bread-and-butter pitch his slider? Fangraphs.com doesn’t report him as having a curve… I always remember Sanchez as a Dodgers fan for using that slider to punch out righties down and in. His no-hitter was unexpected but not surprising.
sanchez
I thought I saw a slider on fangraphs.
by John Sickels on Jul 20, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
slider/slurve
that he bounced off Kouzmanoff’s shin for strike 3.
The Giants need to sign Harry Doyle.
The giants staff just calls it a breaking ball
it’s basically a slurve
He has a curve
He doesn’t have good control of it, so he doesn’t throw it much. It’s different from his slider in that it’s much slower (almost like a changeup), and he has to start it out on a much higher plane than his slider or FB to get it over for a strike.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Great read
He seems like he is a real deal. Some of those comparisons are far from each other, Casey Fossum to Bedard and Lee? Kind of weird but I get what you said
watching his start tonight
He’s yet another one of those perennially frustrating players. All the stuff in the world, but so inconsistent.
But tonight is the Tommy Hanson coming out party. 9 strikeouts through four innings and showing how filthy he can be. It’s a battle of guys with great stuff who have yet to harness it all in the majors.
pitching well against the Giants is not a coming out party
I feel like I’m repeating this for the 100th time when somebody says “so and so” is having a coming out party on the MILB Thread because I really don’t want to go through the trouble of posting all the evidence.
In his next start he'll go back to a 1-1 K/BB
Giants hitters do not walk and they strike out a lot. Every pitcher has their break out game vs. the Giants
if you were watching, you'd get it
He’s throwing 95 at the knees, right over the corner and is pumping in breaking ball after breaking ball of pure filthiness
I'm watching the game
he’s doing a pretty good job but most teams would have taken advantage of the first two innings where he allowed 6+ base runners, with NO outs. He also throws a slider in the dirt and that’s the weakness of the Giants. That’s an easy take for most teams but not the Giants. You’ll understand what I’m trying to say when he makes his next start.
well obviously I'm not expecting this many strikeouts every game
and for the record, his success tonight had much more to do with fastball placement than it did with swings and misses on breaking pitches.
It's odd
That his control deteriorated so much in Triple-A and the bigs, when he didn’t really show any control problems on the lower rungs. Was he just relying on the fastball more lower down, then started walking a lot more guys once he had to use his breaking stuff more at higher levels?
that picture
looks remarkablly like Johan Santana, no? (being latino helps too but the delivery in general)
it's funny you say that
Q: He has more turn in his delivery now. Mechanically, what’s the thought behind that?
A: I told him, `You don’t have to be a mechanical man like everybody wants you to be. You don’t play that way anyway.’ He’s kind of a loosey-goosey kid. He’s not gawky but long-limbed. I always wanted him to flow so there’s the least pressure on his arm. The only way you can do that is you’ve got to get yourself a nice turn but you’ve got to keep your leg compact and keep your hands close to the chest to produce pitches over the strike zone. A little old-school turn.
That’s going to be fine. He’ll be able to do that again. It’s the speeding up when he gets in the stretch. And he didn’t have to do it (Friday) night. He came back from the WBC with a lot of confidence and had changed position with his hands. He was doing the Johan Santana (motion). It’s to hide your pitches from the runner on second, and it’s a smart thing to do, but you’ve got to be careful getting too far away from your body. Then you get stiff and that’s what he was doing. He wasn’t getting the turn that I wanted in order to give that arm a chance to coil. He doesn’t have that fast short arm like Johan does. He was trying to copy the right guy, he was doing the right thing, which is why we let him continue to do it. It works for a short guy the way Santana’s built. But in Jonathan’s case, it didn’t quite fit and there was a lot of pushing of the baseball. I had to get rid of it somehow, and he believed in it, too. He was just searching, you know, trying to make it. He was trying to find his niche.
He changed his motion after he was relegated to the bullpen. He uses more of a high leg turn now, almost similar to Lincecum. The change in his motion is what’s helped him locate his breaking ball.
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