Mid Season Rookie of the Year Conversation

by Metty5 on Jul 2, 2009 10:52 AM EDT Comment 28 comments

Hey all,

Since we are around the mid-season point, I figured now would be a good time to talk Rookie of the Year. While there haven't been huge performances to date, a few rookies do stand out. I'm only going to mention people with over 100 AB.

Colby Rasmus - Rasmus has more AB than any other rookie and has a triple slash line of 270/313/455. The walks really aren't there yet, but the power has been nice. According to UZR, Rasmus has been great this season being +10 in the OF.

Andrew McCutchen - Just over 100 AB at this point, but he has impressed. Only one homerun to date, but 5 triples. Obviously, we'll need a larger sample size.

Chris Coghlan - He has played 2B in the minors, but is now in the OF blocked by Uggla. His 262/360/360 line isn't great, but he has shown some pop in the minors. With the Marlins in the chase, he'll need to step it up a little.

Tommy Hanson - He has really battled this year getting to 4-0, his SO are down in the MLB and his walks are way up, but his ERA is a shiny 2.48. His LOB% is an insanely high 87.6% so his ERA should rise. If he can keep the hits down, as he has and stop walking batters he could put together a nice year.

Kenshin Kawakami - Another Braves pitcher. He was signed out of Japan and is 34. 4-6 with a 4.25 ERA, he has missed a good amount of bats, but the walks are a little high. His numbers look solid, but one has to wonder if he'll start to let up a few more HR.

Jordan Zimmermann - Zimmermann has great SO numbers, and not an awful amount of walks (8.92 K/9, 2.50 BB/9).. His ERA is high for a Rookie of the Year candidate (4.52) but that has to be a product of the Nationals league worst defense to some degree. His FIP stands more than a full run lower than his ERA at 3.38. With improved defense behind him, and some better luck, Zimmermann could pull away from this pack. That could be a nice story for the Nats (whom rarely have nice stories). He'll have to win more games, because one has to assume that Hanson will improve.

AL -

Nolan Reimold - One of two AL players with over 100 AB (his teammate Weiters is at 85 with an OPS of 685) he has crushed the ball thus far. His OPS is 883, the highest of any rookie by a large margin. His 9 HR also lead all rookies, and he has a nice K/BB ratio 24/17. His wOBA is 383. However, his defense hasn't been great UZR has him at -11 thus far in the OF.

Elvis Andrus - One can't say the same about Andrus's defense. Anchoring SS during a revival of the Ranger's defense. UZR has him at +5.3. While he hasn't shown much with the bat, he has exceeded my expectations by a large margin. 269/330/380 is his current line, but one can't over look his 15 SB with just 1 CS.

Ricky Romero - He has been pretty filthy lately. His season stats are looing great at this point, 2.85 ERA with 61 SO in 72.2 IP. However, like Hanson his strand rate is awfully high at 86.9% and his FIP shows some regression in his ERA. The 6-3 record will help him with voters though, especially if he can duplicate that record in the 2nd half.

Brad Bergesen - Kind of a dark horse here, but his ERA is a nice 3.53. I don't this he has the stuff though moving forward. His SO are extremely low, and his BABAIP is quite low as well.

Rick Porcello - The 20 year old top prospect has throwing 83 innings already this season with a 3.80 ERA. His GB rate has been great, but he really needs to miss more bats (4.77 K/9). He has been hurt by the long ball, and those numbers could regress. Though, when a pitcher is only has a 20% FB rate, I guess he'll have a few more go out. His 8 wins put him in great position though.

Andrew Bailey - Bailey has sliced his way through the AL this season dominating batters in the late innings. His SO rate is phenominal (10.84) and while his walks are high, they aren't awful (3.61 BB/9) especially when he isn't allowing many hits. Baily does have some regression coming to his stats though. His BABIP (254) LOB% (84.5%) and HR rate 5.8% per FB all could bring his ERA (2.09) down.

(AL Notables - Matt Weiters and Gordon Beckham)

Conclusion:

I'm going to take Zimmermann and Porcello with the runners up being Rasmus (followed by Hanson) and Gordon Beckham (followed by Nolan Reimold). I think the addition of Nyger Morgan will help Nationals pitchers immensly. Porcello's also a great story with pedigree. Pitching this well at his age 20 season is going to be tough to beat. He'll need those other guys to regress some though.

Sorry if you think I missed someone.

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Comments

AL

What about Scott Richmond?

85.1IP 72H 30BB 71K 3.69ERA 1.20WHIP

and all that with a 15%HR/F. He could end the year with 12-15 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA without too much trouble.

by PissedMick on Jul 2, 2009 11:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

um, Randy Wells!!!

After 10 starts, his ERA is 2.43 and WHIP is 1.08

The kid keeps the ball on the ground and is able to get the punch out with his slider.

Also, he goes deep into games.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Jul 2, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ROY

NL
Zimmermann…the wins wont show it but take away a few early bad starts and the kid has been as good as advertised…
AL
Romero has looked filthy, if he can keep it up he might be a lock

by miraclemets on Jul 2, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Romero...

and Richmond have nearly identical numbers. The only difference is that Romero gets more ground balls, and has had an insane number of runners stranded by the Jays’ bullpen.

by PissedMick on Jul 2, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1 on Zimmerman

3.36 FIP is awfully, awfully good

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by OldProspects on Jul 2, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ricky Romero

remember when people labeled him as a bust.

by LCT on Jul 2, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Andrus

It depends on exactly how you define the Rookie of the Year, but if we are looking for the rookie who has combined having an excellent year with some indication that he is likely to have a long and outstanding major league career, right now my answer is Andrus in the AL.

Sure he isn’t hitting 300 or showing much power but considering all the people who thought the Rangers were crazy for thinking he would hit at all in the majors this year he has done really well. His recent 4 4 sb game just hints at his top of the line potential. And of course the defense, despite a few errors, is more than arguable as gold glove caliber right now.

What I think distinguishes him though is that he is doing this at 20. He’s already a far better hitter than Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel at the beginning of the their careers, with similar tools. Tony Fernandez is another great comp. Maybe on the downside, a Royce Clayton type. All of these speedy, plus defender shortstops who came to the majors have in common that their careers went on pretty much forever.

Of course anything can happen to a ballplayer to make something like this not come about, but if I had to guess I would say that if my 6 year old son grows up to be a shortstop and makes the majors when he is in his early 20s, and wants to win a gold glove of his own, odds are pretty good that the guy he is going to have to take it away from is Elvis Andrus.

by Dalman on Jul 2, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Brett Gardner

deserves some recognition.
8.5 UZR
.289/.367/.421
17 SB 2 CS

Solid. And he had more home runs than David Ortiz for much of the season. :)

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by J-Gao on Jul 2, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Richmond Garnder Wells

ESPN is the only place I know that can sort by Rookies so that is what I did. Wells and Richmond weren’t on there so I missed them.

Gardner too wasn’t on there, as an NYer I should have remembered him.

Looking at them now, Wells is due for some regression. He isn’t missing enough bats, has a high LOB%, and a lowish BABIP, a high IFFB%, and a low HR rate.

Richmond is a FB machine. Tons of balls in the air (also of the IFFB variety). Though, his HR rate is high and likely to go down (I think). If he cuts the walks down, and the HRs stop biting him, he’ll be ok.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jul 2, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Porcello and Hanson

by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jul 2, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

2 Studs!!!!

by Patriotreign3 on Jul 2, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think these 2 will win

Rasmus could steal it from Hanson tho if he falters.

and Romero or Reimold could take it in the AL if they continue their current paces

by daveh33 on Jul 2, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cahill/Porcello

Their numbers were nearly identical till Cahill’s last start.

"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com

by Syphon on Jul 2, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

however...

Porcello has a much better W/L record, a lower ERA, and is on a 1st place team. As we all know, those factors go a long way in the minds of the people who vote on baseball awards.

by jibs on Jul 2, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well Cahill had a lower ERA before his last start.

No doubt voters care about W/L, but they shouldnt.

by Syphon on Jul 2, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bergesen has better numbers than Porcel.lo

His K rate is fairly low, but he is a sinkerball pitcher.

by wickedwitch on Jul 2, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bergesen might be the frontrunner right now.

by alskor on Jul 2, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tough race

Reimold has a bit of distance between himself and the other hitting rookies right now, not to say Beckham or Wieters couldn’t surpass him in the 2nd half though. Porcello/Romero/Bergeson have all put together strong cases as well. If these 3 keep pitching well they may split some votes. If Reimold keeps us the pace and finishes with 25ish HR, .280, and 80-90 rbi then I think he’ll probably take it.

NL – Hanson is 4-0 but it still adjusting, if he can pick up 8 or 9 wins from this point on and finish around 13-4 or 13-5 it’ll be tough to beat him. Rasmus would need a really good 2nd half to compete with that.

by minorsfan on Jul 2, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

as of now

I think Jordan Zimmerman should get it in the NL, with Randy Wells a close 2nd, and maybe Rasmus 3rd. A lot of time to go, though.

I gotta lean Porcello in the AL right now.

by toonsterwu on Jul 2, 2009 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would love to hear your take on Wells' success thus far

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Jul 2, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

surprised

that’s the best word I can think of. I don’t think anyone expected this. I don’t expect him to keep it up, but still. I keep looking over his minor league track record post-positional switch (former catcher) to see if there was something missed. Perhaps he was always a bit underrated (fairly solid AA campaign), but without a great scouting report (and following on the heels of the Carlos Marmol catcher-pitcher transition), I imagined many, like myself, thought this was a strike thrower that was succeeding against minor leaguers, but may taper out a bit against pros.

I mean, he didn’t really get into the consciousness until he came back from Toronto last year, and that was because he had an improved sinker, leading to the thought that he could be a rubber arm that fit a variety of roles in the pen, and maybe as a spot starter. Depending on the situation, a passable 5th starter. But this year, his stuff seems sharper, and he’s got pinpoint control. He’s not going to blow away anyone (tops out in the low 90’s), but he’ll get groundballs and enough K’s. If his breaking ball can stay sharp, I can see a few surprise years that catch people off guard. I’m more apt to believe now that he can perhaps be a decent middle of the rotation guy, but overall, I think he’s good enough to stick as a mid-end of the rotation starter, provided there isn’t a severe dropoff in some facet.

by toonsterwu on Jul 3, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AL

Porcello may win if the Tigers advance to the playoffs… otherwise it’s going to be a race between him, Wieters (face it, everyone knows who he is…) and Andrus (rookie on a contending team).

I’m convinced that to win this award, you can’t only focus on how well a player does, but on what team he plays for.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Jul 2, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He probably his

You are correct, his name didn’t come up either. Maybe the programmers leave anyone out with an IP or AB prior to the season. I don’t really know what the deal is.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jul 3, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NL

I think Randy Wells of the Cubs is the NL winner as of right now. If Hanson keeps it up in the 2nd half he will win it.

Two hitters getting little mention but are worthy are Seth Smith of the Rockies and Casey McGehee of the Brewers.

by backtocali on Jul 3, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hate to see the ROY go to 30-year old vets… But KK has been arguably the Braves’ best pitcher since April. He’s posted a shiny 3.18 ERA since April with a 1.24 WHIP, and in June batters had a mere .269 OBP against him.

If he continues to pitch like that, he’ll force his way into serious consideration.

If Hanson continues to be the Braves stopper and collect wins every time out, he’ll be in business himself. The team just plays better when he’s on the mound, and he’s handled a lot of pressure and a lot of expectations really well. He may be the guy that turns the Braves season around (though it remains to be seen if they’ll actually do so, they look like they may have turned a corner this week).

And beating the Reds at the GABP, the Yanks and BoSox in succession is pretty big. After holding the BoSox to two hits, while pitching with the flu Braves fans pretty much look at him as a front-end guy.

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Jul 3, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs