Mat Latos expectations

by Dudestl on Jul 19, 2009 12:13 PM EDT

now that highly regarded prospect Mat Latos has been called up and is scheduled to start today (Sunday) for the San Diego Padres, what do you think would be reasonable expectations for the rest of the year? What about expectations for next year and beyond? Wins. K's/9, era, whip, etc.

also, who would be a good comp for the type of career he can have?

thanks in advance for your thoughts. looking forward to what each of you have to say.

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Terrible move by the Padres to start his arby clock right now.

The fastball is there but how good are his secondary offerings?

by JonBBT on Jul 19, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions

+1

Especially when they have no shot of contending for the playoffs until 2011 – at the earliest. This is just a cynical move to create fan excitement and try to put more butts in the seats.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 19, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I've seen similar comments all over the place here....

And you are right, its a move to excite the fans.

Guess what? Thats the exact goal of baseball teams. Not to keep players cheap for the longest. Not to build the best farm system. No even to have the best teams every year.

Its putting butts into the seats. Thats the business these teams are in. Now, having great players and winning usually lead to better ticket sales, and are the best ways to guarantee attendance, so teams try to accomplish those goals, but if you told most owners that they could either have a 100 win team every year and average 18k a game or win 80 games and average 38k a game I guarantee you that in their heart of hearts every owner would pick the 80 wins.

If bringing up a young stud (which I don’t see him developing into, but thats besides the point) keeps fans from leaving in droves, especially with your top pitchers out and your top hitter struggling, then thats a move you have to make.

by ADLC on Jul 21, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Your point only holds water if attendance goes up a lot on the days that he pitches. I can see that happening the first few games he pitches at home, but the novelty will wear off quickly unless he pullls a Mark Fidrych for the next 2.5 months. The Pads are so bad that the only thing likely to raise their attendance measurably is for them to go on a very prolonged winning streak and/or win 60% of their remaining games. Now if Latos was an everyday player then you’d have much more of a legit case – as he could be a draw at every home game.

In the meantime, for the sake of maybe earning an extra $200-400K this year, the Pads have started Latos’s arb and FA clock ticking. This will certainly end up costing them 4 – 10 times what they earn in just arb alone – if he’s the pitcher they think he is.

One last thing. The Pads have a brand new owner that claims to want to build the team up the right way and for the long-term. Moves like this make it hard for me tot accept those claims. The Pads are a small market team and need to count every penny if they want to be competitive. They don’t have the luxury of throwing money away, or not paying close attention to controlling their best players for as long as possible before they hit he FA market, like the Angels, Dodgers, Mets, BoSox and Yanks. Their margin for error is just too slim.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jul 21, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok, just cause I like the discussion...

Here’s what I think is going on, they’re not as worried about single day ticket sales as they are about season ticket sales. Next season.

With Young and Peavy out, they are trying to build some excitement for next season by starting auditioning young players now. They’ve said as much.

With Latos, they know he doesn’t have long before they have to shut him down completely, so I can’t just let him continue to pitch in the minors or else he’d run out of innings before he can be showcased. They have to do it now to build a case to the fans for buying season tickets next year.

So they’re trying to get Latos out there, demonstrate his skills, and then they’ll hype him up as part of a strong rotaiton with Young and Peavy.

I was thinking if they were to do this, then it would be good to get some press quotes from both Young and Peavy singing Latos’ praises, which they’ve done.

So they’ll showcase the young guys, tout a 3 ace rotation, and hope people bite and buy season tickets to start next year!

Poster formerly known as artie

by beastball on Jul 21, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Thats exactly my point. This is what you use to say to the fans “We might stink now, but look, hope for the future”. Its not about single day sales so much as season ticket sales for next season (renewals) and tv/radio ratings.

by ADLC on Jul 21, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

For this year, you shouldn't touch him for fantasy

With the innings cap they’re going to have on him, there’s just no way he gets enough of the counting stats to matter, and he’ll have virtually no chance for wins. Unless they decide to move him into a setup role in the bullpen and your league values setup guys, he is not going to give you value this year.

by realitypolice on Jul 20, 2009 8:40 AM EDT reply actions

SD deserves credit

They handle their young pitchers with a lot of care. Peavy is from my area and I watched him very closely (via statistics) during his days in Ft. Wayne, Mobile and Portland. They would pull him out in the middle of a count back in those days. When he hit the pitch count, bud, that was a WRAP.

They’re doing the same with Latos. Good for them.

Best-case scenario this season … Scott Kazmir. (5 ip max)

Best-case scenario overall … Josh Beckett.

"That ain't no etch-a-sketch. This is one doodle that can't be un-did, homeskillet."

by criminal type on Jul 20, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions