Heyward vs Strasburg
by bravitos5122 on Jul 17, 2009 2:20 AM EDT
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PrintWho is the better prospect? Ignore how much Strasburg may sign for. These two players will likely battle it out for the #1 spot on most prospect lists assuming Strasburg signs. Heyward has been dominant in his young career and since his promotion to AA has even taken it up a notch. If Strasburg is the real deal and performs like a Lincecum then it is tough to take anyone over him but Heyward would be one of the guys who would be tempting.
What about Heyward vs Weiters? Weiters put up numbers unmatched by anyone but factor in what Heyward has done thus far and the ease he has transitioned to each level and he makes an interesting debate. Heyward matches great production with enormous upside. Heyward likely has a higher upside but Weiters has position scarcity in his favor. Heyward may not be in the category of Justin Upton as freakishly talented but I dont think he is far behind.
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Which side of the fence are you on?
I know I would personally take Heyward all day and never think twice about it, but there are some that see Strasburg as a once in a generation kind of guy.
Personally, I think the hype machine on both Strasburg and Harper are out of control, but that’s just me….
Boy
You really don’t like Heyward do you?!?!
Strasburg is just that good
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
No
You have been against Heyward ever since he was drafted.
i have not
but it may seem like that because people act like he is the next god. i’m trying to keep it somewhat realistic.
baseball rules.
Why is that?
I dont think its a no brainer either way. Most may lean to Strasburg, but he is a pitcher who is far likelier to have his career derailed by injuries. I didnt know that a debate between what will likely be the 2 best prospects in the game was impossible.
Only one...
of these players gets the term ‘generational talent’ thrown around on a regular basis. Heyward’s a very nice prospect, and he’s definitely made me a believer this year (I was an early skeptic). He’s also a corner outfielder, though, and there are a lot of corner outfielders who can hit for power. I think that of all of the OFs with high upsides in the minors, Heyward’s the closest to a sure thing because of his rare combination of power and contact, but there are quite a few players around who compare favorably to Heyward on upside alone. Strasburg is a different case. Nobody else in the minors has an upside that’s even remotely comparable.
So to recap. Heyward: great prospect. High ceiling, good chance to reach it, advanced skills. However, there are several other guys with similar ceilings who are far more flawed, and chances are one or two will pan out and meet or exceed Heyward’s level of performance even if he works out perfectly well. Strasburg: otherworldly prospect. As sure a thing as a pitching prospect can ever be, with absolutely stratospheric upside that no other pitcher in the minors can even sniff.
Heyward’s a very good prospect, but I’m pretty sure if you asked 100 professional scouts who they’d prefer on their team without considering contracts, 95 or more of them would say Strasburg, and of the few who didn’t, at least one will be some dude who gets off on being contrarian.
actually, no...
there are 3 scouts that I know of (for both NL and AL teams) who have been quoted as saying that Heyward’s the best hitting prospect since Pujols.
95 would NOT put Strasburg on their team. Maybe 60…MAYBE.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jul 17, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I've...
never seen Heyward put in that kind of company, and it’s pretty close to indefensible. First of all, Pujols wasn’t even the best hitting prospect since Pujols. His breakout came at the major league level. The highest he ever ranked on a BA list was 42. He wasn’t the “best hitting prospect ever” until he was already well on his way to a 35-hr season his rookie year. That’s not an impressive spot, scouting-wise.
3 scouts have “been quoted?” or someone threw out a comment that “a scout said” somewhere on a blog? If it’s the former (or hell, even the latter), source, please?
Strasburg is going to be an average player
Poor Team-Check
Poor Mechanics-Check
Weak College competition-Check
I wouldn’t be shocked if Strasburg is out of baseball in 5 years with an injury to his shoulder a la Prior. Heyward is going to be an annual MVP canidate.
I wouldn't be shocked if any pitcher
was out of baseball in 5 years with a shoulder injury. That’s not really saying anything.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jul 17, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Average player?
Teams change, “mechanics” is an indefinite concept that no professional in the biomechanical field that doesn’t specifically derive his income promoting baseball mechanics takes seriously for any kind of predictive value, and you can talk all you want about “weak competition” in college, but nobody has EVER put up Strasburg’s strikeout numbers, and it’s not as if he didn’t face several top-25 programs over the course of the year. Combine with scouting reports of the best raw stuff in the modern scouting era, and the ide atha the’ll be an “average” player if he stays healthy is just absurd.
Health problems can hit any pitcher, and Strasburg’s certainly not immune. The team/college context is silly, though. If college stats alone drove the hype machine for draft prospects, Jared Weaver would have been anointed a future hall-of-famer.
you do realize
That Jordan Zimmermann plays for the same organization and faced FAR inferior college competition than Strasburg, and yet he’s already establishing himself as an above average pitcher within his first 100 MLB innings.
LOL
He wouldn’t Bravesin if he facts like that.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 20, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
.441/.500/.794
Heyward’s line in his first 10 games of AA. While it’s only AA, that’s fucking NASTY.
Strasburg has Todd Van Poppel written all over him.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jul 17, 2009 7:38 AM EDT reply actions
Instead of saying...
“While it’s only AA” you should have said, While it’s only 10 games.
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Heyward
all day long. Just too much risk involved with pitchers – especially when you have to spend that much money for Strasburg. I think Justin Upton and Heyward are going to be the two dominant OF’ers for the next decade.
+1
As a fantasy owner of both of those young studs I whole heartedly agree!
Alert the authorities
Apparently slurve has plans to assassinate Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson and Ryan Braun. Other OFers who start to show dominance should be put on serious alert!
Granderson?
Sizemore and Braun I’ll buy for fantasy purposes, though once you consider defense I think it’s just Sizemore.
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by OldProspects on Jul 17, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL
Read below about Sizemore vs. Granderson. Love the fools who will eat up one great career year and expect 30/30 or even 35/35 seasons to drop like clockwork.
As for taking defense into consideration, even if you just want to sit in last year’s stats, Granderson’s defense would put him on par w Braun and Sizemore.
The only plans
I have are to dominate my fantasy leagues. I think Upton and Heyward will have a better next ten years than Braun/Sizemore and definitely better than Granderson.
middle of the pack, actually
obviously in a rebuilding mode, but I do have some great young mlb talent, including Cole Hamels, Pablo Sandoval, Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, and Grady Sizemore. Great scouting to trade for Heyward (and Brett Anderson) about a year and a half ago and thanks to a bad year last year, I won the lottery (and Strasburg) for this year’s draft with the smallest chance of winning it.
by richieabernathy on Jul 17, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, be sure to give me your contact info
I am the commish for a couple of Keeper Leagues and I always need a good sucker or two to replace owners that leave. I pratically make a living off selling overhyped prospects for great MLBers. Once in awhile I get burned but most of the time I rake in talent by selling high on guys like Cam Maybin, Wlad Balentin, Jeff Clement, and Kris Davis. Do I know for sure that Heyward is going to be another Maybin? No, but I do know that Granderson will produce for a LONG time. Heyward is a question mark still. Also for the guys pumping up Sizemore and dissing Granderson, Sizemore has had a total of one better season than Granderson and that is because Granderson broke his hand. The record between which CF is better is LONG from answered.
Well said
Also, how exactly does Slurve figure that Heyward will be better than Braun? Heyward is good but Braun is ALREADY one of the top 10 hitters in baseball.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jul 18, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
Yeah, him being sure that Heyward is going to be better than Braun is just absurd. I mean the margain to be better than Braun over the next 10 years is pretty damn thin. He would have to be Albert Pujols essentially.
These prospect guys crack me up.
If Braun's back keeps acting up,
he could quickly lose that power and has made him great and turn into the Don Mattingly of the outfield. I like Heyward more than Strasburgh for the sole fact that I value the everyday player more than the SP, and that injury to pitching is more prevalent and career threatening than that of an everyday player.
Anyhow, that being said- I would take Upton/Heyward over Granderson/Braun. I believe that Upton is going to be a 30/40 guy with a few years of coming close to 40/40. I see Braun and Heyward being a wash with Braun’s back coming into play and him losing power and mobility. As much as I like Granderson, I view him as the guy with the lowest ceiling and least talent of the 4. I see Sizemore/Braun as pretty much a wash with Heyward/Upton, but I would take the latter as I believe upton is that once in a generation talent like that of Griffey or Bonds….
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Thank you...
you have restored my faith that there are actually people around here able to reason. Obviously Braun et al are worth more at this point, but a lot can change in a few years, let alone 10. Just three short years ago if someone would have said that Braun would out produce the likes of Abreu, Vlad, etc. they would have been laughed off the planet by these same know-it-alls.
I wasn’t even talking about Braun’s real life baseball value – his defense is a huge liability, where Upton and Heyward are good defenders as well.
He is?
By what standard is Braun a top 10 hitter in all of baseball? Right now Braun is 14th in VORP. Upton is 28th already and he’s 4 years younger. When Braun was Upton’s age he was still in A-ball. Last year Braun ranked 30th in VORP.
Where did I criticize Upton?
I am saying that expecting HEYWARD to be better than Braun over the next 10 years is laughable. I love Upton and think he will be an elite hitter for the next decade. Heyward has enormous potential but if you think he is going to be a better hitter than Braun, you will likely be very disappointed.
Also lets examine the definition of VORP brought to us from the people at Baseball Prospectus:
Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.
Therefore, it would appear that using VORP as a means to decide who is the ‘best hitter’ is not a great method as it is taking into account the hitter versus others at his defensive position, when we are solely trying to determine who is the best hitter regardless of defensive positioning.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jul 18, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
VORP
I know VORP doesn’t account for defense. Didn’t say it did. It is, however, a measurement of a players value as a batter. May not be the greatest method, but at least it is a method, where you just blindly threw “top 10 hitters in baseball” out there. Again I ask – by what measure are you basing that assertion?
“Heyward has enormous potential but if you think he is going to be a better hitter than Braun, you will likely be very disappointed.”
Really? So far I’m not disappointed at all as Heyward is putting up better numbers in the minors than Braun did – while being 3 years younger at the same levels. Better power AND better plate discipline.
Better Power?
Braun had a .572 slugging in the minors compared to a .498 slugging for Heyward. Braun had 42 HR in 767 AB compared to 23 HR in 741 AB for Heyward. In fact, through 199 career games for both hitters (strange that they have played the exact same amount of minor league games as of today) here are the following numbers:
Braun:
61 Doubles
6 Triples
42 HR
34 SB
12 CS
70 BB
151 SO
.313 AVG
.375 OBP
.572 SLG
.948 OPS
Heyward
51 Doubles
8 Triples
23 HR
20 SB
4 CS
81 BB
119 SO
.314 AVG
.382 OBP
.498 SLG
.880 OPS
It is important to note that I am not saying that Heyward isn’t a fantastic prospect. I am just pointing out that he has not put up better numbers in the minors than Braun did, although his production as a 19 year old is impressive. Braun has beat him impressively in power stats such as doubles, homeruns, and slugging, while Heywards advantage in plate discipline is neglible. Heyward should be a valuable MLB OF for years to come, however lets wait to see how he handles MLB pitching before you annoint him among the top hitters in baseball.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jul 18, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
What?
Go look at what Heyward did this year at high A as a 19 year old – then go look at what Braun did there as a 22 year old. No comparison – Heyward is head and shoulders above – particularly when you factor in age.
so basically
Braun can never win this discussion because he went to college?
The stuff I’ve seen said about Jason Heyward in this thread is just plain ludicrous. You could even guarantee me that he’s going to be a Hall of Famer and I’d say the exact same thing. It’s not only unwarranted, it’s just irresponsible.
No...
I never said anything like that, in fact I have no idea what that point has to do with any of this.
Heyward now has his footing this year as a pro – it’s really the first year we can look at his numbers and get a good feel for how good he is. I simply am looking at his success in high-A compared to Braun. His plate discipline and power numbers are better than Braun’s were at the same level and he’s done it at a significantly younger age – the point I was making is that it isn’t that outrageous to think he can be better than Braun. Like I said earlier – if someone would have said Braun would outperform the top OF’ers three years ago, they would have been lambasted. There is more to base that assertion on for Heyward than there was for Braun when he was in the minors.
slurveone@yahoo.com
I mop up in leagues filled with players who lack foresight. I know how to balance established players with prospects. If your crowning achievement is selling high on Balentien/Clement/Davis, I think I’d have no problem in this league.
Don’t look now, Cam Maybin may just yet make you look like a fool for dumping him.
Really?
So you think his .415 BABIP is even remotely sustainable at the major league level? Don’t look now but his GB% is still 58%. He’s still exactly the same player he’s ever been. You can have him.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 20, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't agree
I think the key to Maybin’s success or lack of it lies within his K:BB ratio. The K’s are down and he’s walking more. Trying to glean much of anything from GB% or BABIP from theat small of a sample size is pretty fruitless.
It depends
If I were ranking these guys right now (or likely in the off-season), I would rank Heyward first. I have great difficulty giving a guy who has not thrown a professional inning the top spot. Since, I doubt Strasburg will play in the minors this season, I feel that Heyward should be ranked ahead of him when the off-season lists come out.
I do suspect that Strasburg would quickly become the better prospect, but just not yet.
Likewise, when comparing Wieters to Heyward, I give the nod to Wieters. He’s holding his own in the Majors and Heyward has merely dominated for a short time at AA.
Yeah, position scarcity helps too, but Atlanta’s position scarcity is in the outfield. Heyward’s value to his organization is not diminished because he is a corner outfielder, but increased.
It's not that hard to teach someone to play COF.
No team would ever prefer having a prospect play there than at a more difficult position.
Toss Up
First, Strasburg is really unprecedented. Not that he is so great blah blah. But we don’t know how is arm will respond to throwing 100 MPH fastballs as a starter. Maybe he’ll last a month, or a year, or 15 years. He hasn’t broken down yet, and I am no expert on mechanics to say that he will. But has a human being, and as someone who TWO torn labrums (L and R) I know how easily a body and desert you.
That said, I was skeptical of Heyward to a degree coming into the year. He has taken a great leap forward in my eyes. I was expecting the power, but just maybe not this quickly. He has huge potential for sure.
That leaves the question, who would you (or in this case I) rather have more? I see Heyward as a beast. My Comp for him is… Nick Markakis. He could end up with more power, but I think that is pretty accurate (2008 Version)
That makes him a 6 win player, upper tier of OFers.
Again, Strasburg is a different beast. But looking at the last three years on fangraphs. It is easy to see that position players tend to be a safer bet to have more value. So I’m going to lean Heyward.
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Markakis is a terrific player
But do you really think that’s all the power that Heyward will develop? Markakis’ career high in homer is 23, and it took him 636 ABs to get them. Heyward already has 11 homers this year in 217 ABs – and that’s at age 19 (granted in the minors rather than majors, but still). Otherwise, I don’t think that’s a bad comp, though – I think he’ll probably be, like Markakis, one of the top-10 OFs regularly
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by OldProspects on Jul 17, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I did mention he would have more power.
Again remember I’m talking about 2008 not his career in general. I think markakis is pretty close. He’ll develop that kind of walk rate and his SO rate could increase sightly as he tries to hit for more power.
Do you see him at a 40 HR guy? I don’t think that he is that kid of hitter, to me, he seems like a line drive gap hitter, with power. I think 30 is probably where he sits around.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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I know this isn’t true analysis, but I saw Jason this spring, and you know how certain players just look like a stud, from the way they swing a bat or just even walk out to the field? That’s Heyward. Even my mother noticed this, and she’s my mom
Only problem...
Given your disclaimer, you probably know this. The problem with guys who “look like studs” is that guys like Reggie Abercrombie and Charlton Jimerson also look like studs from the way they swing the bat/walk on the field. Heyward’s a great prospect, but I really try to temper expectations about he “looks great in a uniform” guys.
Your mother noticed that I was a stud too
and I thought she looked like a great ballplayer once the game started.
Turns out neither of us are in the major leagues even though there were some great home runs that day.
All things considered
Strasburg maybe the best pitching prospect anyone has seen in a while [without throwing a single pitch as a professional as of yet] and if he becomes Roger Clemens II, he’ll be just fulfilling his potential as the next great hope.
I would even say, if he becomes a bust, how can you be at fault for saying he was the better prospect at this point over Heyward.
However, Heyward has the makings of a franchise-type hitter and a superstar – we might not see it now, but the point maybe moot in several years when Heyward is hitting 35 home runs a season, stealing 30 bags, having a .325 batting average, posting an on-base percentage near .400 or better, et al.
Heyward is seemingly the No. 1 position player prospect in baseball and I’d tend to believe in his hype more, than what is being said about Strasburg.
If Wieters was still in the discussion as a prospect, he gets the edge over Heyward, because he is expected to do the things Heyward does [maybe not run as much or at all], except do it as a catcher.
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
And Wieters
Is going to be just like Heyward, except playing catcher.
Oh sorry, I didn't mean to imply Heyward is going to be the next Albert Pujols
There is no one comparable to Pujols.
The talent is there however for Heyward to be a five-tool threat.
It may not be relevant after all these years, but maybe he is closer to Cliff Floyd.
Floyd was a super-duper prospect with all sorts of tools and ability destined to be a superstar, until he got nicked up here and there.
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
Wieters won't run at all
I am in Baltimore, and have enjoyed watching him play since he came up, but he is so slow it’s laughable. I would say if he ever has a 5 SB season it would be a miracle.
the question should be strasburg or upton
Sliced Bread Is Actually The Best Thing Since Matt Wieters.
oh, that's easy
As good as Strasburg’s arm is, Upton is only 21 and producing at an All Star level in the major leagues.
Normally I’m pretty open-minded on this stuff, but if we assume that he’ll be better than Upton, this means that not only will we have hit dead on with the evaluation of his talent, but also that he’ll be healthy enough to pitch at a level commensurate with that talent. Too many variables.
Heyward makes a much better comparable, as he has no MLB experience (and we don’t even know how he’ll be when he gets there).
Strasburg >> Weiters >>>>>>> Heyward
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