Posey....finally....
The rumored trip to AAA took place. This may be news everyone has heard already, but I think it will be interesting to see how he adjusts. I am guessing they sent him here to see if he can be ready to start in the majors next year?
As a side question... what do people anticipate from him in his peak? I know power was a question when he was drafted, but he hit a HR every 22 ABs in High A. Is he a potential .300, 25 HR guy?
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Yeah in high A
Becoming a prolific HR hitter in the most hitter friendly league in the minors is not that difficult of an accomplishment. I’m thinking 15-25hrs(25 being in peek years). He’ll hit a ton of doubles tho.
by AthleticsReign on Jul 15, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions
Would you mind posting the latest park effect data?
From what I remember reading, and what I found San Jose is actually a pitchers park. I remember reading that when tracking Posey, so was a little surprised by your post.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/minor_league_park_factors_2006/
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3289
Granted this is still from a couple of years ago, but still it shows San Jose being a fairly heavy pitcher’s park. Do you have other information that shows the opposite?
Poster formerly known as artie
Posey actually hit a lot better in San Jose than away, in roughly the same number of at bats.
Home: .378/.483/.608
Away: .273/.369/.469
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by nostocksjustbonds on Jul 15, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
California League is hitter friendly
I don’t see the problem with the statement.
information above and below should make the problem clear.
Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball
"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson
The Cal League is a hitters league, but as mentioned SJ is a pretty extreme pitchers park.
FWIW, BP’s peak translations have Posey as a ~25 HR hitter based on his line so far. Also, basically a .300/.400/.500 guy, which I would take from a catcher any day.
Peak Translation: Applies a typical aging pattern to the regular translation, to try and assess how good the player will be at his peak. Peak generally means somewhere around age 27; however, since the components of offense don’t age at the same rates (speed decays earlier than power, for instance), and since players don’t have the same mix of those components, the actual peak age has some variability, as early as 25 for pure speedsters and as late as 30 for sluggers. The adjustments for pitchers are considerably more sketchy; the very idea of a typical aging curve relies on predictable, steady changes in performance, while pitchers tendencies are dominated by essentially unpredictable point impacts, most commonly either injuries or developing a new pitch. All in all, though, the peak translation is an important tool for me to assess prospect status.
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@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
One other contradictory point
The Cal League is no more of a hitter’s league than the PCL is – especially the western part of the PCL.
Check out the HR and slugging stats for the PCL they’re pretty stratospheric. Of course, for the most part, you do have a higher and deeper caliber of pitching in the PCL vs. the Cal League.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Some Posey Thoughts
Some things I’ve found interesting so far about Posey:
He has hit much better at home than on the road, as mentioned above. I’ve always heard the Cal League is very hitter friendly; however, I also remember reading that San Jose is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball…not just the minors. I’ve also been to a few games at San Jose’s stadium and it seems EXTREMELY difficult to hit a ball outta that park. So the 7 homers at home are impressive, as well as his overall numbers at home. The road woes are a little worrisome, but a .273/.369/.469 is nothing to start panicking over.
His lefty/righty splits are probably the biggest surprise:
Righties: .280/.383/.430 in 207 AB’s, 28/36 bb/k
Lefties: .440/.534/.810 in 84 AB’s, 17/9 bb/k
A little concerning that in a hitter friendly league, he’s posting a solid line but nothing special against righties. He is absolutely crushing lefties, so it does balance out, but I’m really waiting to see how he does against righties at the next level.
Posey has also gone hot and cold at times during the year.
April: .366/.447/.646, 13.8 / 11.7 k%/bb%
May: .245/.319/.382, 15.9 / 7.1
June: .385/.523/.631, 9.4 / 21.2
July: .325/.417/.550, 12.8 / 14.9 (half a month)
Posey has shown great plate discipline throughout his time with San Jose, which is great to see. And it makes sense that when he’s taking more walks and striking out less that his overall lines are better (obviously). What this information is suggesting to me is that Posey may be a very streaky hitter early in his careeer. I think consistency is often what we want from superstar players, but that doesn’t mean that streakiness is such a bad thing. It seems like when Posey gets in a groove and he’s seeing the ball well, he’s the type of guy who can be an all-star caliber player. We may see some tough slumps early in his career, but he seems to me like the type of player who can make adjustments and will find away to prevent those future slumps.
My thoughts about Posey’s future is that he will develop into one helluva a hitter. With his plate discipline and above-average pop, I think he will be a .300/.400/.500 guy if not better. I think the streakiness will continue early in his career, but eventually I think he’ll become one of the tougher outs in baseball. I think he’ll end up with 25-30 homers a year during his peak. The real question, I think, is how well he catches and handles the staff. The Giants staff is loaded, and if Posey really is going to be the guy in 2010, he’s really gonna show he knows how to catch more than he knows how to hit.
If Posey lives up to the hype, the Giants are going to be one of the better teams in the early part of the next decade.
as to streakiness....
Isn’t that fairly common among young catchers as they gorw defensively and are given a larger workload as far as calling games at the ML level?
Love this guy, but I agree, I expect him to be streaky for a couple of seasons before he puts it together at the ML level.
Great Stuff Everyone!
Thanks, and kep it coming, I’d love to see some other thoughts.
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crazytalk?
I know he is the catcher of the future (AKA next year) but has anyone (besides me) given some thought to him seeing some time at 2B this year?
If he performs well in the next 6 weeks at Fresno, given the Giants black hole at 2b this year and the fact that the guy has played ALL 9 positions in college, what are the odds?
The Giants need to sign Harry Doyle.
IMHO the chances are slim
1. It derails his defelopment time learning the C position at AAA.
2. 2B has been a severe offensive black hole for most of the season, when it was manned by Burriss, Matt Downs, and Kevin Frandsen. However, over the past 3 weeks +, they’ve turned it over to Juan Uribe and he has been a significant offensive upgrade. If you’ve noticed, the Giants offense has been increased about 25% in runs, HRs and slugging, in that time frame. It’s not all due to Uribe, Ishikawa has been much better recently and they’ve given much more PT to Schierholtz in RF, but Uribe is the main reason for their offensive surge.
3. I love Posey and think he’ll have a bright and long career, but I doubt he’s their starting C at the start of 2010. More likely he’ll spend at least the 1st half of the season in AAA, and then be called up if he’s still on track and the Giants need help for a title run.
4. I hope that the Giants do look into having Posey spend about 40 games each year playing a position other than C, in order to prolong his career and to keep him fresh. Trust me, this has already been a big, and heated, topic of discussion on the Gaint fan blogs that I frequent, so you’re not the 1st to bring up the idea. I believe that the most likely scenario would be for him to trade off with Pablo Sandoval, an above average D catcher in his own right, to keep both of their bats in the lineup together. Sandoval will most likely stay at 3B in the future, unless the Giants swing a deal for a good 3B, in which case he would slide over to 1B. I saw Posey play games at SS and OF in 2007 and 08 while at FSU, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he would be a fine defensive 3B, 1B, or LF in the Majors with very little practice needed. 2B is a bit of a harder stretch in my mind, because it is more of a specialized position than 3B and 1B, requiring more range and the ability to turn the DP. I feel Posey could play 2B, but he’d need much more training time to get up to speed.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

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