Who in the 2009 draft is in your top 50?

by journeymen on Jul 15, 2009 1:27 AM EDT Comment 24 comments

I'd assume Strasburg would be in everyone's top few. Where would Ackley go on the list - is he top 10 or 20? Who else from the recent 2009 amateur draft should go on a list of top 50 or so prospects?

And to get to the 75 word minimum, I'll just cut and paste what I just wrote...

I'd assume Strasburg would be in everyone's top few. Where would Ackley go on the list - is he top 10 or 20? Who else from the recent 2009 amateur draft should go on a list of top 50 or so prospects?

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I have 5 guys from the 09 Draft in my top 50

and Grant Green is close. The 5 in my top 50 are Strasburg, Ackley, Crow, Matzek & Jacob Turner. I have Ackley as about the 15th best prospect.

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by Gobroks on Jul 15, 2009 2:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think...

Z.Wheeler a possibly even Scheppers are better than Turner, IMO. Without some pro performances you can’t really put anybody else there, but I do like a handful of players potential and would prolly rather have than some that would be in the top 50.

Purke, Miller, Borchering and Grichuk…maybe even Davidson.

by Berserk on Jul 15, 2009 5:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow, 5 guys in the top 50?

I was thinking Strasburg and Ackley. Maybe Matzek.

I’m too lazy to check lists, but how often does BA/BP put 5 guys from a recent draft in the top 50?

by toonsterwu on Jul 15, 2009 8:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

let’s not christen the titanic “unsinkable” until it’s been out on the sea

by gorilla_baller on Jul 15, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA on the '09 class

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/268219.html

San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg is already the favorite to rank No. 1 on next year’s Top 100. Assuming they sign, there are two more college players (North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley, Missouri righthander Kyle Gibson), two independent league righthanders (Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers) and five high schoolers (outfielder Donavan Tate, lefthanders Tyler Matzek and Matthew Purke and righthanders Jacob Turner and Zack Wheeler) who are all but locks to make the list.

That’s 10 draftees from 2009, and I was trying to be conservative.

by jfish26101 on Jul 15, 2009 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course that is for the top 100 but some reference on how BA tends to handle the most recent draft. In the same chat it is mentioned they had 14 ‘08 draftees on their ’09 top 100 but that this past draft class isn’t as strong as the previous.

by jfish26101 on Jul 15, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why did you leave out this portion?:

North Carolina righthander Alex White, Texas high school righty Shelby Miller and Southern California shortstop Grant Green also have a good chance to make the list. There also will be a couple of lower first-rounders or sandwich picks—maybe Florida prep third baseman Bobby Borchering—who have strong debuts that will put them in position to crack the Top 100.

by jar75 on Jul 15, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guess it wasn’t important since the thread asked about the top 50 and he isn’t positive they make BA’s top 100.

by jfish26101 on Jul 18, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would have 4

Strasburg and Ackley are locks. Crow is pretty close to a lock. I also think Tate would make it due to athleticism. Matzek and Turner are really the only other possibilities for the top 50, unless another first rounder sets the world on fire in his professional debut or gets sent to the AFL and impresses.

by guru4u on Jul 15, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

HS

probably just me, but I can’t imagine having any players, but especially HS players there w.o pro experience.

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by JDSussman on Jul 15, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I can see the argument for someone like Turner, Matzek, or Purke, but i just couldn’t justify any of them in the Top 50 when there are guys with comparable upsides who have already had some success in pro ball. None of these guys are Rick Porcello; it’s not a crime if they make the back end of the Top 100, or even if they don’t make it at all.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 15, 2009 6:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

How many pitchers in the minors

have comparable upsides to Matzek/Turner/Purke?

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by OldProspects on Jul 15, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Draft Rhetoric

The quick answer is I don’t know.

But the reason we don’t know is because we don’t have scouting reports or stats for these guys against professional competition.

Sure, you have all of the draft talk. But really, it doesn’t mean all that much.

I could claim Alex White has the best combo of stuff and advanced pitchability. Therefore he could be sucessful in a MLB very soon. But really, until we know how he does against say, A+ball hitters we really don’t have any way to compare his pre-draft “upside” to anyone else in the minors.

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by JDSussman on Jul 15, 2009 9:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I would have Strasburg 1 or 2 and Ackley in the top 50, though conservatively speaking, I’m not sure his skillset projects him anymore than a back-end top 50 candidate.

I think the two others with potential for being top 50 are Mike Leake (let’s see how fast he moves out of the gate) and Aaron Crow.

I wouldn’t put any of Wheeler, Turner or Matzek in my top 50, and the rest of the HS arms shouldn’t sniff it.

Anyone know where Melville or Martin ranked last year? They come to mind as the two premium HS P from last draft.

by WrenFGun on Jul 15, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think they both were just outside the top 100 on the community list, FWIW.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jul 15, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can we do a mid-season community list? Now that the draft is over and some guys have advanced onto pro ball, I’d be curious to see the results

by LinceCainGarnerSon on Jul 15, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For as long as it takes

It is better to do a end of season list, there will be so much change in the next few months, you’ll be wanting to slot guys who were overlooked//2009 draftees who wouldn’t make the list today

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by JDSussman on Jul 15, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jul 15, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could see doing a top 10 or 20... something like that

but I usually hate these things. There are a few teams with huge fan bases on here that ruin it. My favorite team among them to some degree.

by alskor on Jul 15, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Developing a hate for it...

We are nearing the end of our draft in my Sim League, and that has caused me to hate the Community List. I’ll have a guy I am researching so I put his name in the search engine here. I end up getting page after page of results for him if he was listed on the community poll. The Community List has basically ruined the search function here.

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by Boxkutter on Jul 15, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I'm being pessimistic

But I really only see Strasburg as a Top-50 kind of guy. Ackley’s on the fringe, in the 50-55 range and, unless he signs and logs in a few innings this year, Matzek would be right behind that, in the 60-75 range.

by ThomasG on Jul 15, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

care to give a reason why?

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jul 15, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Conservative

I tend to be a bit more conservative and results-oriented when it comes to pitching prospects and ultra-athletes like Tate. Mostly because the injury and flameout rate in both groups is too high to consider them without some body of work on which to base them.

As for Ackley, I think variables did a good job addressing his concerns, but I also don’t see the kind of ceiling in him that others do. I kind of buy into the Erstad comp that I’ve seen thrown around but I really don’t know if I see him achieving much more than that. Dave Cameron once commented that he’s automatically the Mariners’ top prospect: I’d rank him third behind Saunders, in a tie with Aumont, and just slightly ahead of Halman. (Disclosure: I have a huge mancrush on Halman, warts and all…)

by ThomasG on Jul 15, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Weak draft class.

I am a Mariner fan, but still something about Ackley doesn’t sit well with me. I don’t think he will be a bust or anything, but I just don’t see him as being a great player either. Maybe a better version of Terrence Long?

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by Boxkutter on Jul 15, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs