I do not care what Michael Taylor did when he was 21, because he is not 21 and he is not OPSing .665. The guy has put up an OPS of well over .900 at three different stops in the last two years.

Heyward will likely be quite good, but while his rate of development has been faster thus far, it does NOT mean that his upside is that much greater (if it is in fact greater) than Taylor’s. You’re suggesting that the relationship of age-relative-to-competition is linear, which is something I do not believe to be true. If it was, then there is no possible way that Taylor could ever match Heyward’s production assuming that both develop as expected from this point forward. In reality, we’re working with calculus and not algebra here. No matter how spectacular the initial rate of development might be, the reality is that almost all players level out to a certain extent at the highest levels – individual player performance, adjusted for luck, has an approachable (if not yet clearly defined) limit. I add the qualifier “almost” only because we do have some cases of incredibly fast development to a tremendously high peak level of player (Albert Pujols being the modern example) . . .but even there, I do not see anything conclusive as to whether Pujols just represents the extreme end of the system rather than breaking it outright.

It doesn’t seem unreasonable to suggest that Heyward in his prime is, say, a perennial .950 OPS as a high-end outcome. But I see nothing that suggests that Michael Taylor is incapable of the same. After all, his tools are outstanding and he’s done just this over the last two seasons. The margin of reasonable expectations out of the two players is quite close, and certainly close enough to the point where personal preferences for various aspects of each’s game are enough to shift your opinion in one direction or the other. The one thing I will concede is that, being 4 years younger, Heyward might be expected to have a longer duration of major league success than Taylor . . .but once again, trying to predict that either of these guys at 35 is going to resemble the player that they are in their early 20s seems a bit much for me. While I do understand and appreciate the literature that suggests major league players who develop earlier have a longer career duration than those who do not, I also understand that this is a general rule with plenty of exceptions, and I don’t see why I’d believe that either player can be categorized under either heading just yet, especially when neither has received so much as a single major league AB. Hell, Heyward (despite his freakish athleticism) has even had some minor injury issues as a teenager, which makes trying to project his longevity even more difficult than your standard case. There are just some things you and I don’t know, and there is no reason other than unwarranted hype to pretend that we do or even that we can. But as for the things that we DO know, we do know that both players look like they have a high-probability at producing at a high level in the major leagues. And given that, I see no reason why you can’t or shouldn’t prefer Taylor to Heyward other than groupthink, and I think by now that we all know better than to put all of our faith in that method of evaluation, especially when comparing players as talented as these.

He might be a legitimate prospect as a 1B . . .but I think he’d have to either be an absolute crusher or really flame out as a LHP prospect (read: multiple significant arm injuries) for anybody to give that route a thought.

You said it: “I also think that he’s cocky enough to believe that he will be a #1 overall in 2-3 years if he goes to Oregon and pitches to his ability.” Nowhere there did you mention playing first base . . .it’s all about the $$$.

Like I said, he might go to Oregon, but it wouldn’t make any sense for him to do it because he wants to play first base. Thinks he could be No. 1 pick in 3 years, risky but not unreasonable given his current draft position. Thinks he wants to go the a big-market time, also risky but he could consider that route as soon as next year if he wants to go to a CC rather than Oregon. Thinks people will pay him even more as a 1B, he is nuts.