Cahill - Webb comparisons

by sully10x on Jun 7, 2009 1:10 PM EDT

I know there has been several infamous Trevor Cahill posts on this website in the past. Much controversy was stirred by the two sides -- the one that supported him and the one that called him the next "Tyler Clippard".

There was a lot of talk about Brandon Webb comparisons, but most shot those down as just "fan hype".

Cahill is now 12 starts into his major league career, so we have a pretty good grasp on the type of stuff he has.

Although he hasn't been great all season, Cahill's kept his ahead above water, and has been very solid of late.

The Orioles announcers scouting report on him last night said "Webb-like movement".

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"Although he hasn't been great all season, Cahill's kept his ahead above water, and has been very solid of late."

10 of his 12 starts hes allowed 2 ERs or less. He was however lit up twice for 7 ERs in less than 3 innings. Cahill outside of those two starts has been excellent.

"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com

by Syphon on Jun 7, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

I love Cahill, but...

He’s been very lucky thus far. His FIP is 5.20, and the 32k/26bb in 66.1 IP is not very sexy.

The way he uses his effective sinker, I dont think he will have the K rates similar to Webb.

Jake Westbrook? Aaron Cook?

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Jun 7, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

He walked way to many his first month. 15 walks in 20 Inning.

But in May/June he has a 11:25 BB:K ratio in 45 innings. So the 11 walks in 45 inning is much better. Hes 21 and learning on the job. Once he gets his curve working he will be an excellent starter.

by Syphon on Jun 7, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

And you think that will continue?

In his 238 odd minor league innings, he walked 107 people, or about 4 per 9 innings. You think his walk rate will continue to halve after going up to the majors?

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by OldProspects on Jun 7, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Well sure why not?

Hes fricking 21. Is it absurd to think that pitchers get better as they mature into their prime?

by Syphon on Jun 7, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Absurd - no

Unlikely, yes. Let’s see if this persists for more than 30 IP

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Jun 7, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

So acording to you..

he cant gain some control as he gains experience?

by Syphon on Jun 7, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Some control, yes

And of course it’s entirely possible that his control might dramatically improve over the course of his career. But the numbers that we have don’t justify the interpertation that this has already happened. His walks per plate appearance at every level of the minor fluttered around the 9% mark. So far this year, his walk rate has been precisely that. The argument that his control improved relies on looking solely at his last 40 IP, without considering the previous 26 IP this year, or the last 2 years. It’s possible that he simply learned how to throw the ball over the plate between May 2 and May 7th, and he’ll never slip again, but I’m wary.

I’m especially so considering he has a history of having single months with excellent control that doesn’t persist. Last year, for example, in April he had a walk rate that was similar to what it’s been in June of this year. Over the whole year, however, it returned to his 9% rate. In other words, let’s wait and see if that happens again.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Jun 7, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

your numbers are off

in 238.7 innings, he walked 97, or 3.66 per 9.

here’s the breakdown:
2006 – Athletics® – 7.0 (9 IP)
2007 – Athletics (A) – 3.42 (105.3)
2008 – Athletics (A+) – 3.19 (87.3)
2008 – Athletics (AA) – 4.62 (37)

but the point is, while the walks are a definite concern going forward, it not unlikely that a 21 year old can improve.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott

by scatterbrian on Jun 8, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

He's pitched much better as of late

And I definitely think he has Webb-like stuff, but Webb knows exactly how to pitch with what he has. Whether Cahill learns to do that or not – it’s too early to tell.

by NateHST on Jun 7, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

Cahill isn't throwing many breaking balls yet

It seems he isn’t able to control his curve much right now, so he’s not throwing it very often. Considering that his curve has been described as a plus (or at least potentially plus) pitch, I’d think his K rate will probably begin to rise when he begins incorporating it more frequently.

by jibs on Jun 7, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

forget cahill

its all about vin mazzaro…13+ shutout innings in his first 2 starts. throwing 92-96mph.

i know you’ll say the white sox/orioles suck, but whitesox won 10 of 13 prior to that series and baltimore looks to have a great future trio in weiter/jones/markakis and huff/scott/roberts are good veteran types

by Asfan4ever723 on Jun 7, 2009 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

I really don't have any point to make other than

to say how funny it was a couple weeks back to read a post talking about Cahill/Anderson not being ready or something like that. Both have been solid enough considering the circumstances.

by toonsterwu on Jun 8, 2009 12:46 AM EDT reply actions

Crow

Yes I’ll gladly take my share of crow for starting that post!

by DJSlam on Jun 8, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Been some good, some bad with Cahill

I think the sinker has shown to be as good as advertised so far this year. He has had some trouble locating it, but I think he is starting to improve in that regard. Part of it is just trusting in the movement and realizing he can succeed even if he is throwing 87-89 mph as long as he keeps it low in the zone. I was pretty impressed with this pitch from the first game he through, it looks almost like an 88 mph screwball with rediculous drop and armside movement.

I think the change up has been pretty impressive as well. Cahill is still pretty inconsistent with locating it, but it has the potential to be a pretty good pitch as it dips and moves just like the sinker only it’s generally about 10 mph slower coming in around 78-80 mph.

The biggest disappointment has been the breaking ball. I heard a lot about his knuckle curve and the good strikeout numbers in the minors seemed to suggest it was a pretty effective pitch. But it has looked useless so far in the majors, when I have seen him throw it seems to spin without much real bite and Cahill has no location with it. What concerns me more is that as the year has gone on breaking balls have become nonexistant for Cahill.

I’m a little worried that by trying to succeed in the majors Cahill is sacrificing developing his curve which could hurt him long term. I love the sinker, and his change-up is promising if inconsistent but I think the difference between becoming a legitimate ace rather than a good mid-rotation pitch-to-contact guy is going to depend on whether or not he can develop a workable swing and miss breaking ball.

by OkayJay81 on Jun 8, 2009 1:23 AM EDT reply actions

+1

Very much agree with this last paragraph. While Cahill has held his own as of late, I still wonder if he would have been better served staying in the minors and refining the secondary stuff/working to improve his control.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Jun 8, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jun 8, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Breaking ball

I completely disagree that his breaking ball seems to spin with no bite. His breaking ball when he’s thrown has looked real nasty with plenty bite and depth…just has not had the control so far this year.

by Berserk on Jun 8, 2009 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions