6/7 MILB Thread
by rdf8585 on Jun 7, 2009 11:50 AM EDT
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PrintHere are some starting pitchers to look for throughout the day as we close out the first week of June:
Mike Bowden, Chris Tillman, Jon Niese, Homer Bailey, Clayton Mortensen, Juinichi Tazawa, Brandon Erbe, Josh Lindblom, Michael Main, Juan "JC" Ramirez, Cole Rohrbough, Tyler Chatwood, Juan Carlos Sulbaran, Dexter Carter, Ross Seaton, Stolmy Pimentel, Manny Banuelos, Randall Delgado
Poll for today - Most of the Reds best prospects are hitters and some preseason favorites among the pitchers (i.e Lotzkar and Thompson) have either been hurt and/or ineffective. Meanwhile, Sulbaran has continued to gain steam. Is he the Reds top pitching prospect?
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Sell on Sulbaran
Love the kid. Good stuff, knows how to pitch, will go after hitters and has a lot of upside. Still, while he has risen up the prospect charts I think that Zach Stewart is the Reds best pitching prospect. He has two pitches that are as good as Sulbaran’s best pitch, has the numbers and is in AA.
What kind of stuff does he have?
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Stewart or Sulbaran?
Sulbaran throws 88-92 with his FB with more projection and tops out around 94. Above average curve that flashes plus and an above average change up at times, but average most of the time.
Stewart works 92-94, hits 95 and 96 just about every inning. Has a plus slider. Needs more work with his change up.
Interesting
Is he definitely going to be a starter now, or is that still uncertain? What’s his ceiling?
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Ceiling
Ceiling is always up to the person answering the question. What kind of ceiling does a guy who throws 92-96 with a plus slider have? To me, I would suggest thats #1 type stuff. Others may disagree. You decide.
Hanson
Looks pretty good. One thing that I wasn’t expecting is he has a delayed pause in his back motion with the ball before he throws it, similar to Franklin Morales (that is the only similarity) like he is trying to pin point the pitch or throw a dart. For the first time seeing him this will throw off timing but big league hitters will be able to figure it out. His FB is of the “straight” variety but his other offerings are very good with a lot of movement…..nasty slider.
All in all not too bad. Just wasn’t what I was expecting.
hanson pt2
I guess they timed out his FB the 3rd time seeing him. :^) you could sense a big inning with how the game started to play out with the ab’s growing in quality with each inning.
Hanson
I watched the whole game, and I thought the stuff looked great, but the pitch selection and command at times was spotty. Braun’s 2nd HR came on a fastball he left up, after he had him flailing on a slider the pitch before. That being said, I’m very optimistic about him, and I think he will do better with McCann calling his game as opposed to Ross today, who kept calling for the fastball, which Hanson was not shaking off.
slider
Hanson showed a very nasty slider today. Braun flails away a lot on pitches like that, but none the less, that pitch was awesome.
He was trying to “showcase” that fastball up and away 0-2, after starting him with breaking stuff to get the first two strikes, and he missed his location and you can’t leave a fastball up and over the plate.
I think Tommy’s thinking was, he was throwing Braun a FB up but away, to say “this is what the fastball would look like, if you ever got one to hit.” He just missed his spot entirely, and Braun made him pay.
Yesterday was not THK’s best stuff though, and any pitcher struggling to locate the FB is going to get hit hard against big leaguers.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Not sure I'd call the FB straight
I guess the 4-seamer was, but the 2-seamer had a ton of movement on it. When he was leaving it up, it was tailing in from the outside corner right across the plate. I think all of the HRs were of this variety.
It was a pretty good start, he’s just got to keep his fastball down in the zone or stuff like this is going to happen from time to time.
It just shows he has a lot of room to improve even as a big leaguer. He’s hardly a refined product yet— but watching him on the mound you wouldn’t know he was a rookie if you didn’t know better. The stuff, makeup, mound presence, are all there… With him it’s just about improving the command a bit more (which has been rapidly improving over the last couple years statistically), and getting comfortable with a catcher and learning the finer points of big league pitching. With Lowe, Vazquez and Hudson around he’s got some great mentors. And from what I’ve heard from people at Turner Field this weekend Lowe and Hudson were already right there talking to him all Saturday night, and in the pen before his start yesterday.
Additionally, he’s been throwing that slider for less than a year professionally… And it’s going to be a better pitch than it is right now. And it’s already damn good. If he eventually makes his change a plus pitch, he’s a legitimate four plus-pitch guy— and that’s pretty frightening.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Lars Anderson
2-3 with 2 2B and a BB. Seems to be heating up.
x
Carols Pimentel: 5.0IP 4H 2R 2ER 2BB 4K 1HR
Neil Ramirez: 1.1IP 5H 5R 5ER 2BB 3K 1HR, yuck.
Michael Main: 4.0IP 8H 8R 8ER 2BB 5K 3HR, sigh…..
Go Rangers...don't suck...
Yankees
A. Jackson
2 for 5 but 2k’s. His batting average at .342 but 58k’s in 53 games
Austin Romine
3 for 4, 5 rbi’s and a home run (7th of year). His batting average at .296. He’s been pretty good as a 19 year old catcher in pitcher-friendly league except that he needs to learn how to take walks and his home-away split is suspiciously apart.
Manny Banuelos
5.2IP 6H 1ER 1BB and 4K’s. 2.81 ERA
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by lard of the dance on Jun 7, 2009 7:00 PM EDT reply actions
re: Romine's splits
Considering that Tampa is a pitcher’s park, I wouldn’t be concerned about the home-away split.
As for Banuelos, he is doing pretty impressive stuff as an 18 year-old in A ball.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
Junichi Tazawa
Deserves at least a little pub:
6IP 4H 1ER 2BB 6K
Season:
67IP 53H 20ER 6HR 19BB 63K…2.67ERA/1.07WHIP/0.97GO-AO
scout I talked to said he's Boston's number 1 prospects
He wasn’t a fan of Anderson and Kelly due to makeup issues.
He might be.
Id still take Anderson, obivously, but I understand the detractors.
I think with Lars, its important to remember he’s still very young, too. He’s almost a full year younger than Justin Smoak, for instance. This is his age 21 season and he’s extremely patient and has an advanced approach… along with flashes of and a body that indicates great raw power. My biggest concern with him is mental… he seems streaky and prone to slumps.
Kelly has makeup issues? First Ive heard of that. Not saying its not true – Ive just never heard it. He definitely says all the right things in interviews at least. Was he just an old timey scout who doesnt like that he wants to play SS and the team wants him to pitch? Tennessee didn’t seem concerned with his makeup (He was going to play QB for the football team).
Tazawa is really impressive, though. Kind of surprising he’s not getting more pub. Strange that the Red Sox, who are constantly accused of having their prospects overhyped, have two of the most underrated pitchers around in Bowden and Tazawa.
For that matter
Nick Hagadone is back and looks awesome apparently. Hitting 96 again. Pitched an inning for Greenville the other day.
Bowden
was underrated? Beats me.
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by lard of the dance on Jun 7, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Was and is, apparently
He’s a big guy, former 1st round pick and only 22 yo.
This is his scouting report:
Bowden fills the strike zone with an effective three-pitch mix; a low-90s fastball that has good carry through the zone, a curveball that’s a plus offering due to his ability to locate the pitch, and a changeup that features good deception. The advanced secondary offerings make him equally effective against both lefties and righties, and he attacks hitters without fear… Bowden is credited with a mature, intellectual approach to the game that defies his youth.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8444
His career MiLB numbers:
458 IP, 393 Hits, 32 HRs, 126 BB, 423 K.
Rates = 7.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.3 K/9.
This year he has a 2.58 ERA in 10 GS at Pawtucket (AAA), allowing only 37 Hits in 52.1 IP.
When do you see him mentioned when people talk good pitching prospects? Underrated.
Fair point
But personally I’m someone who’s hesitant to buy into guys who rely on pin point control ala Ian Kennedy.
I guess it’s hard to say, we’ll see what happens to him in the long run.
Read the scouting report
Bowden has very good stuff. He’s not a control pitcher with poor stuff. For that matter, he actually has better control than the so called “control artist” Kennedy! Bowden walked 2.5/9 in his MiLB career. Kennedy 2.8/9. The big difference is in stuff, though. Read the scouting report above again.
What’s hard to say? The chances are overwhelming that he will be a successful major league pitcher. He looks like a solid 3 right now but its hard to imagine him being worse than a 4/5 type.
“When do you see him mentioned when people talk good pitching prospects? Underrated.”
like, a lot. heard about his skills since few years ago and the greatness of his transitions and his stuff (not to mention his funky delivery, which is very deceptive) was also in talks by not so few. Not a bad amt. of attention for a pitcher who throws in low-90’s. I think a lot of pitchers of that repertoire can go close to such career milb stat but MILB and MLB are two different animals. Bowden will pitch well in MLB barring any unusual circumstances but I doubt he’ll repeat the dominance he’s had in minors. 3.02 ERA total (his MILB career record so far) is pretty good but we’ll see how he transits in MLB
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by lard of the dance on Jun 8, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, he gets plenty of attention from experts and what not
Just not around here, where people wrote him off as “NOT AN ACE” two/three years ago and don’t care to revisit it.
- on the community prospect list and was widely ridiculed for going that high. Nearly every expert has him higher (Awful BA missed the boat, as usual b/c theyre tools whores, had him one behind friggin Adam Miller). Meanwhile the CPL had Hellickson at #42.
There are plenty of top pitching prospects who throw low 90’s. Is that some sort of bar to being a good pitcher now?
k rate/bb rate/babip
Bowden looks pretty good. However, his k rate in AAA is only 5.74. I know, with Porcello, we see that extreme groundballers, not a huge issue. But Bowden has a go/ao rate of .65. He has not struck out a ton, has a high flyball rate, yet given up only 3 homers. That is abnormally low. His babip gainst is only .239, which is extremely low. And his walk rate isn’t huge, but 3.24 per 9 means he is sub-2 on the k/bb.
Conversely, look at Jon Niese. ERA over 7. But, his k/bb is 8.18/2.86 per 9, so almost a 3 ratio. His go/ao ratio is 1.94, so he actually is a groundball pitcher. But his babip is .395 and he has given up twice as many homers as Bowden. Striking out more batters and inducing more groundballs suggets that is a bit of a fluke in the HR department.
If you look at their tRA* numbers, Niese is 4.55, Bowden 4.57. Even.
Now, I have argued elsewhere that i think results are important and that Niese’s results are a bit of a red flag, but Bowden’s peripherals to me are also a bit of a red flag.
I think this is why Bowden is not definitve “ace” material based on what he has done so far. He is young though.
Brandon Snyder hits 10th HR
Now hitting .343/.411/.605
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Ross Seaton
6 inn, 5 hit, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Would you rather have him or Lyles? Where do each of them rank in your top-100?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Eliezer Alfonzo
What?
Looking at Blanks’ line I see that somebody has hit their 10th HR of the season, so I gain interest, then I see that this player is hitting .341 and playing C. What is going on?
3-4, HR (10), K
Season Line:
.341, 10 HR, 7 2B, 4 BB, 35 K, .361/.635, .996 OPS
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
You do realize
That he is 30 years old, right? And that 4/35 BB/K ratio is ghastly, and also correlates directly to his 11/101 MLB career BB/K ratio, in 361 career at bats. It is an impressive season, so far, but not really anything terribly interesting.
I know
he’s not a prospect, he’s a terrible major leaguer, he wasn’t a great minor leaguer/AAAA guy, but I just thought it was slightly funny that he’s hitting .341 with 10 bombs.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Fair enough
It just kind of seemed like you were pimping him out.
Jake Arrieta
7 inn (CG), 0 ER, 3 H, 5 K, 0 BB.
What order does Arrieta, Erbe, and Patton go (you can add Tillman and Matusz)?
Where do each of them sit in the top-100.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Not sure.
Definitely like Matusz most and then Tillman right behind him. Arrieta seems overrated by some, but Ive loved him since he was drafted. Patton is forgotten but not bad and Erbe is one of the most underrated pitching prospects around these days.
This is awfully reminiscent of the young pitching Tampa assembled before they became a contender.
Tillman
- Tiny gap –
Matusz
- Pretty big gap –
Arrieta
- Moderately sized gap –
Erbe
- Tiny gap –
Patton
Tillman/Matusz and Patton/Erbe are somewhat interchangeable.
Patton was the biggest piece in the Tejada trade, and he was largely forgotten as alskor mentioned after he suffered a traditionally nasty injury in the labrum tear. That being said, almost every report during the course of last season/last winter said that Troy was recovering at a very promising rate, and he has pitched very, very well thus far in 2009.
I really could put Patton ahead of Erbe and not feel bad about it, but I won’t.
Erbe is still a hot commodity, but he has been on the DL for most of 2009, and since all of Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta and Patton have completely dominated, they’ve been more talked about. If we’re talking upside, then Erbe, but Patton is probably more projectable.
All five have been ranked in the top 100 within the past year or two by Baseball America, and could all do so again this year should they continue at their current paces.
If Zach Britton continues at his own current rate and lowers the BBs, then I would be tempted to place him right next to or above Patton.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Logan Forsythe
3-5, HR, 2 RBI, K (lowering his BB:K ratio to 48:39)
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Best MiLB righty now that Hanson’s up.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Former well regarded prospect Travis Wood
seems to be putting things together lately. He really struggled with his control earlier this year (much like most of his career). He battled some arm issues in the past, but a few years ago he was a well regarded lefty. Well, it might be time we start paying more attention. Tonight he went 9ip, 3h, 0bb and 11K. Over the last month he has put up this line in AA as a 22 year old lefty – 41.33ip, 29h, 8bb, 39K, 1.09 ERA. He has walked 1 batter in his last 26.2 innings. If his control continues along the path of his last month, the Reds have another legit arm to look forward to.
Ramon Santana
Game 1: 0-0 3BB
Game 2: 2-4 2B, R
I was at both Beloit/Wisconsin games yesterday. Cold, windy day kept the ball in the park. I was impressed with Santana. Michael Harrington’s got a nice frame for a ballplayer too, but definitely lacked discipline. Brett Lawrie looked good too, even if his numbers on the day were just decent (1-3 /1-3) he still stood out from the others.
Michael Marseco might be the smallest ballplayer I’ve ever seen in the pros. Wow. I think 5’9" was generous…
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