Mock Draft Discussion Thread
by John Sickels on Jun 6, 2009 3:53 PM EDT
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Use this thread to discuss the Mock Draft.
Overall I thought it went pretty well. There were a few glitches, which is to be expected, but it came out to less than an hour per round. I'll post thoughts about each draft starting tomorrow.
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Our selections
1:2 – Dustin Ackley, cf North Carolina. We want him to play center, where his value is obviously a lot higher than if he were a first baseman. We wouldn’t have taken him if we weren’t sure he could handle the job.
1:27 – Drew Storen, RHSP, Stanford. A starter, for us, until he shows us he can’t. Low-90s heat, has an arsenal that could get him to the majors this year…and remain there for a long time.
S1:33 – Mychal Givens, ss, Plant H.S., FL. We see him as a shortstop, someone who has the instincts and ability to stay there long term. The bat is a work in progress but our guys are confident he can develop into a top of the order hitter who makes contact and gets on base a lot with “doubles” power…not bad for a shortstop.
2:51 – Angelo Songco, lf, Loyola Marymount. A pure hitter. Will probably have to stick in left and the bat will play there or anywhere on the diamond. Someone we view as a middle of the order bat who isn’t all that far away from the big club. And that’s a testament to Angelo’s ability and drive and work ethic.
3:81 – Andrew Susac, c, Jesuit H.S. (Roseville), CA. Arguabley the top catcher in the state, a complete player who drives the ball long distances and will stick behind the plate with a “cannon arm.”
by AndrewZStebbins on Jun 6, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Spelling
I apologize for my spelling mistakes. Yes, I see them too.
by AndrewZStebbins on Jun 6, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I really like this draft
especially Givens and Susac
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 6, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
First 3 picks are either moving a position or beginning to play one full-time.
That’s risky, even if the first two are college players.
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Mets
Good calls by you John,
but I thought they might draft for need and depth by position (C, 1b, Ss) etc.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Great A's Draft
I would be estactic if thats how it plays out next week.
Great Job !!!
Yeah
Nice move with Tate we need upside players like that (unlikely to be able to sign him in real life)
I'd rather have shelby miller over tate
but tate’s not the end of the world or is he javier herrera’s cousin
When we played softball, I’d steal second base, feel guilty and go back.
- Woody Allen
by rhymeswithelephant on Jun 7, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Blue Jays
really impressed with the Jays draft
i’m a big fan of this draft
20. Kyle Gibson-i know he’s hurt, but its just a stress fracture and he should be a steal at this slot.
37. Tyler Skaggs-big time upside, and he will most likely be a first round pick, so this is yet another guy that dropped down lower than he probably should have
68. Jeff Malm-may be a tough sign, but he has a huge bat
99. Justin Marks-solid college lefty with good stuff that should move pretty quick
Thanks
Thanks Few, good to get a positive review from somebody so well versed in the draft. I still follow your commentary over at Cards Talk at stltoday.com very closely.
We also got Max Walla at 104 who has been compared to Jaff Decker, who I loved last year and who has killed it since turning pro.
Me too
If only JP was so smart! I like the gamble with Gibson, Skaggs was a huge steal, Malm is a good risk, adn Marks is a really safe pick after all those gambles.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Just a stress fracture?
That’s a deadly serious and possibly recurring injury.
Gibson wouldn’t necessarily be a bad pick at 20, but that’s probably the earliest you’ll see him projected as he could feasibly drop a few rounds.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Braves
I feel very confident we arent taking White, thank goodness. why would we take white and not scheppers? even if matzek and wheeler are off the board, i think we would take Shelby Miller before White
I would've gone Matzek or Wheeler had they been there
Considered Tate but figured he’d cost too much. Many boards have White over Scheppers, White has less injury risk, and he’s from the South. Seems pretty possible to me.
And frankly...
I just don’t think Miller is good enough to take at 7.
I know the pick is out of type a bit, but if the top 6 plays out this way, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened.
yeah its tricky
i was talking to a friend about what if matzek and wheeler are off the board..its obvious those are our two fav players. but then there dosent seem to be a good fit.
I think they would pony up the money for matzek IF wheeler is gone..
If both are gone, why not just take Tate? Make a go at signing him and if he goes to school take the pic next year since the value at whoever else they would take this year would not be there.
OR take someone like borchering and use the extra money to sign a few latin kids.
Cards Draft
Not that big of a fan of the overall draft for the Cards. First of all I am not a big fan of Minor. Players such as Mier, Gibson, Arnett, T. Wheeler and mayber Oliver and Paxton would be a better pick. In the first round I always take the best available player and I don’t believe Minor is that guy at #19. 2nd and 3rd rounds for them….I would like to see AJ Morris as one of those picks. Volz and LeMahieu would be good options too. I would love to see them go get Colton Cain and pay enough to pry him away from Texas but I don’t see that happening. Also I am a huge Horns fan so that would take away a very solid recruit! Grichuk is just an OK pick in Round 2 and Robbie Shields in the 3rd was a solid pick IMO…even though there is a chance he can’t stay at SS. So I am praying we see the Cards go a touch more aggressive with upside in this draft as they have kind of indicated they might do. Now that they have a much deeper farm system than any year in recent history they can afford to take very high upside HS players which has not been their forte.
14. Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)
44. Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU
62. Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Zachary HS (LA)
93. Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida
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My Astros Review
21 Mike Trout OF HS New Jersey – Was disappointed neither Brother nor Chad James reached me, but was thrilled to see Trout still around. I don’t know how likely it is that Houston takes a HS player from New Jersey, but his package of tools was too good to pass up.
69 Colton Cain LHP/1B HS Texas – I was not thrilled most of the guys I wanted were taken before I picked and I was practically left with Cain. That said, if he signs, Cain could become a very good starter and is a good consolation prize to losing out on James and Brothers.
100 Kendal Volz RHP Baylor – I actually love this pick. Volz was consisdered a first rounder and still has three solid pitches. Bobby Heck has said he likes the depth of pitching in Big 12, and I think Volz is one of the better ones.
111 – Jake Cowan RHP San Jacinto JC – Possibly my best pick, I think Cowan is a great fit for that compensation B round.
Those are just some quick thoughts, I’ll post a more in-depth look later. How’d I do?
I like it a lot.
Good upside from the first two picks and Volz is an underrated alternative to the more “elite” power arms
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 6, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Pirates
4: Tyler Matzek, LHP: Big thanks to gatling for making this selection for me. I had Crow as my first option, but I like Matzek more. Crow was the obvious choice, and once he was taken it allowed me to go with Tyler. With recent reports on his playoff performances (reaching 97-98), it made the decision between him and Turner easy. I am very high on him, and the only obstacle is getting him signed.
49: Marc Krauss, OF: With the supplemental pick I wanted to go with someone signable, out of fear of losing the pick if he isn’t signed. I like Krauss’s bat, and think he’s a solid value selection.
53: Luke Bailey, C: I knew that I wanted to grab a HS catcher somewhere in the first three rounds. With Joseph going so early, I had to take Bailey here. He’s going to be another tough signing, but I think he’s worth it.
84: Chris Dominguez, 3B: I was actually surprised that he slipped this far. He still needs to work on the strikeouts, but he’s made some strides at it this season. I think he has big time power, and that’s something that’s missing from the Pirates’ organization. I also liked Robert Stock here, but I didn’t think there was any way to sign him, Bailey and Matzek.
I don’t know how feasible any of these selections are, but I really like what I ended up with.
Indians
Shelby Miller
Aaron Miller
David Nick
I’m pretty happy with Miller at 15.
I really wanted Bailey, Kipnis, or Von Rosenberg in the 2nd. I settled for Miller.
In the 3rd I was looking at a # of guys, but Nick’s bat seems to be pretty solid and the hit tool is the most important tool.
Royals Review
12: LHP Rex Brothers, Lipscomb University
Grant Green and Mike Leake were the two names I was hoping would fall to us at #12, but both were taken in the top ten. There were some high school arms I seriously took a look at like Matt Purke, Shelby Miller and Matt Hobgood. I am still wary of Purke’s “slinging” delivery and Miller’s command. I love Hobgood but his upside is a bit limited for a prep pitcher. I ultimately went with Brothers, although I have some buyer’s remorse with the pick. Brothers throws hard but has command issues as well. He could be a fast mover though, and at the very worst I think he turns into a guy like Jeremy Affeldt. I think if I had to do it over again I may have gone wit Hobgood or Miller, but I don’t think Brothers is a terrible choice by any stretch.
91: SS Stephen Perez, Florida HS
It really stinks not having a supp or 2nd round pick! I was hoping maybe a signability concern would fall our way, but most of those guys were taken (in mocks you don’t have a budget, so its not that surprising) I couple guys I was eyeing for the third round were taken earlier than I expected – LHP Robbie Erlin, C Luke Bailey, OF Brian Goodwin and P Keyvious Sampson. I liked LHP James Marks of Louisville quite a bit, but he’s probably just a back of the rotation guy at best. Local product AJ Morris of K-State was intriguing, but I’m a bit wary of his workload in college. It came down to a trio of shortstops – Perez, Daniel Fields and Robbie Shields. Ultimately, I thought Perez had a much better chance of sticking at short than Fields and had higher upside than Shields. He’s got a great baseball IQ, good pop with a chance to build on that frame, and adequate defense.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I like 3, don't like 1
I don’t really like any of the college pitchers that were available, including Brothers. I would have had Tate, Borchering, James, and Stassi on my board.
Perez I really like in the third. A middle infielder with a ton of offensive upside is something you would kill for in the third. I probably would have been choosing between him and JR Murphy.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
Can't say I really like the Cubs mock but
from the way it looks, the Cubs scouting director didn’t make it.
Pollock – I can see this happening, but I still don’t like it.
Bushue – Not sure this is the type of arm the Cubs would go after in the 2nd.
Kehrer – Not huge on him, but this was okay.
Funny Thing
Is that all three players played in Illinois or ND. I know they’ve tightened up the budget with the upcoming ownership switch but you’d think they’d send out scouts further out. :)
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 7, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I like it quite abit
Good mix of different profiles, and I like all three players quite a bit, and none was a reach at the pick you had. Crow is definitely a better pick than Minor, the players the Padres are supposedly considering at #3.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Giants Had A GREAT draft!
-Jacob Turner is a good projectable prep pitcher.
-Kentral Davis has some power and improving skills
-Austin Maddox has some power and catching ability which is key if Posey can’t back the plate effectively (I think he has like 15 Pbs.
Love the Davis pick...
Other than the top 15 or 20 names, the only name I know is Kentrail Davis. Read scouting reports on him last year and just really liked what I read. Only reason I scanned past the first round on the overviews was to see where he went.
Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.
I'd take it
That would be ideal, love to see these guys get taken….and SIGNED!!! Great upside in this draft. Like to see Matzek or Wheeler over Turner, but since they weren’t available I like the Turner pick. Davis is a good pick if we sign him, same with Maddox
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
DBacks draft
1-16 C Wil Myers NC HS
1-17 SP Matt Purke TX HS
1-35 SS David Renfroe MS HS
1-41 OF Brett Jackson Cal
1-45 3B Tommy Mendonca Fresno St.
2-60 2B Jeff Kobernus Cal
2-64 CL Joe Kelly UC Riverside
3-95 SP Bryan Berglund CA HS
I’ve had Myers and Renfroe penciled in for weeks. Myers may have been a little high but he had been moving up as of late and I wanted him so I was forced to take him here. the second pick I expected to take a pitcher, but I didn’t expect that when it got to me none of the pitchers I was thinking of were available. So I took Purke because he was the most talented pitcher left.
I didnt’ take signability into account with anyone, having not been looking at Purke coming in, I had no idea what his demands were. I approach this as finding the best talent, thats a tough enought job by itself without figuring in supposed demands, and perceived teams willingness to sign a particular player, you just never know how that stuff works out. Some times tough signs sign, sometimes they don’t. So taking Purke got everyone a little worked up, when I followed him up with Renfroe all hell broke loose.
Myers and Renfroe were my targets all along Purke was taken kind of by default, so I unintentionally started a “signability” war in the supp round. Again I took none of that into account, I didn’t know we were supposed to stick to signability picks, I made picks the way they should be made, find the best talent, its not my fault that MLB has allowed the draft to turn into a signability clusterF. with 18 yr olds and agents running the league.
Brett Jackson, Tommy Mendonca and Jeff Kobernus are a trio of good college hitters that add some advanced bats to a hitless farm system.
After taking the college hitters and just coming out of the signability flare up I started going off my board, I looked away from talented HS guys because I didn’t know signability and didn’t want to get into that again. So what happens when you go off your board? you make a mistake, I HATE my 2nd round pick, he’s the kind of guy I would never take in my right mind, but I was trying to do things on the fly against the clock and YUK!!
I rebounded with Berglund in the third round. So if you forget about Kelly in Rd 2, I added alot of talent and I like my draft, overbudget and all! Even if I couldn’t sign Purke but signed everyone else I’d be happy with my draft. So I’d love to hear what you think of the picks aside from “signability” issues
Well
Purke and Renfroe are nice picks, obviously, assuming you can sign them. But both would have probably been off the board way before you take them if not for signability.
It’s not that we’re supposed to ignore signability picks . . .but rather, we’re supposed to handle them like a real front office would, or else the simulation just doesn’t work. Every team has a budget for the draft, and (at least until now) it’s been very rare that a team would even exceed $10M with that budget. The Diamondbacks are a team that typically sticks to slot or only slightly above (and even then it’s pretty rare), and with so many early picks this year I’m pretty certain that it’s slot or bust for most of these picks, with maybe even a few underslot guys thrown in to keep things balanced. Personally I wouldn’t have minded the Purke selection too much had you gone for some easy slot/underslot signs along the way. Instead, you actually then grabbed another of the biggest signability concerns, and this time you did it in the supplemental round. I’m not sure if you know this or not, but if you don’t sign a supplemental pick, you don’t get compensated – it’s lost. So it’s probably safe to say that if Renfroe goes at any point, it’s not going to be in a supplemental round – his signability is probably his biggest question mark at the moment. And you’re not adding any talent that doesn’t sign with your team.
So, yeah. The idea is to pay at least some attention to real life demands. And it’s really not hard to figure this out . . .the fact that Matt Purke is going to be a tough sign isn’t a closely guarded secret, especially if you’ve been doing research on draft prospects for WEEKS.
All in all though, if you can sign everybody it’s a solid draft. Your mid-round picks look a lot like what the real Dbacks might do, and Berglund is an interesting prep pitcher.
Maybe
He’s planning on dumping Dan Haren so he can afford those draft bonuses.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Orioles thoughts...
I really dislike Wheeler at 5. He has a kink in his delivery that worries me. This is a team that can take risks with high picks at this time.
Happy at 2 and 3 though.
I was happy with Wheeler....
….wanted Matzek, but with him gone Wheeler was next on my list.
Would have preferred Heathcott to Glaeseman at 2:5, by a pretty wide margin.
Reports are coming out
That the O’s will take Wheeler even if Matzek is still on the board. All speculative of course.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Yeah, we are getting closer and closer to our evaluation of the two. I think at the moment, I am still in the Matzek camp, but Nick (Stotle) has shifted to a dead heat between the two. It sounds though that he is now with the Wheeler preference. We still need to compare notes . . . he was out in the field yesterday. Supposedly everyone is holding tight.
Yeah.....
…the trouble is, I can’t really get a good understanding as to why. Everything I read says that essentially, Matzek is out of the running for being too similar to Matusz, which I don’t see and also don’t consider a good reason not to draft him.
On the other hand, they’ve actually done stuff like meet these guys and watch them pitch, so perhaps they know things I don’t.
Short of reminding them of Matt Riley...
Comps are no reason to drop someone, especially a comp to a decent player.
Something small
But in the video Ive seen of him it appears he cocks his arm/elbow as he is starting his forward momentum. There is something in that movement that worries me about his long time health.
I know his mechanics can be worked on, but that could change his entire approach .
As for Glaesmann, Im more then happy with him. His injury history is a lot less worrisome then Heathcott, and hes more likely to sign at slot
Brewers
Andrew Oliver
Rich Poythress
Sam Dyson
LeVon Washington
Chris Dwyer
David Hale
I know the Brewers are planning to go heavy on pitching and they also want players closer to MLB ready than in past drafts.
I was happy to see people think that I made nice picks while the draft was going on, but with a little time to digest, what do you think?
Marlins
As per usual, the Marlins don’t offer a lot of arb, so their drafts are never filled with supplemental picks. 3 rounds; 3 picks.
1. Bobby Borchering, 3B, FL HS (overall pick #18)
Definitely pleased with this selection. Borch has been linked as high as the 4th pick in this draft, and a lot of people think he’s one of the best all-around hitters in the class. I was a little bit scared off by the current Dominguez/Skipworth position prep star run for the Fish, but Borchering is just too good. He carries plus power, patience, and contact ability from both sides of the plate and already has an advanced approach to hitting. I was hoping for either James or him, so I was super pleased to see him still there at the 18th pick. I would think he will go higher than this on Tuesday.
2. Brad Boxberger, RHP, Southern Cal (overall pick #66)
Was looking for one of the second tier prep arms here, and I had my eye on 3 of them; Van Rosenburg, Keyvius Sampson, and possibly Gould if he were to drop. None of them made it to me, but I felt like there were still a pretty good collection of college arms left on the board so my attention turned towards them. The Fish also have a need for quick-moving high-level pitching, and I don’t draft on need in most situations, but this was an added bonus. Boxberger should go higher than #66, and while I don’t love him, I think his talent and value are worth the pick. He’s got an electric arm, and his improvements this year bode well for his immediate future. I think he has a brighter future than guys like Alex Wilson and Sam Dyson, so I’m perfectly pleased with Boxberger for the position I got him in. Also looked closely at Victor Black for this pick.
3. Chris Jenkins, RHP, NJ HS (overall pick #97)
Wanted to get a prep arm in the top couple rounds, as this draft was one of the deeper classes for prep arms I could remember. I was HIGHLY coveting Berglund. He fell out a couple picks before our pick so I went with my number 2 prep arm left on the board; Chris Jenkins. Jenkins is tall and projectable with a huge arm. Sound familiar? It should. The Marlins are in love with these type of guys (West, Volstad, Johnson… all performing well at the ML level), so the pick definitely fits. He’s still raw as his only pitch besides his FB that grades out as average is his curve, and even that is borderline. He will also have to be lured away from Stanford but with the previous two pick, the Fish should have a little money to spend on this pick.
Overall, I’m pleased. There were definitely a couple guys who I thought were going to slip to me that didn’t, which is disappointing, but I feel like all 3 guys taken could go higher than I took them.
White Sox
23- Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
Arnett was my target coming into the draft so I was obviously very happy that he was still around for me at 23. I think he’s quite underrated and perhaps that’s because people think he may be a one year wonder but I’ve watched him several times now and am sold, he’s the real deal. He’s got a good fastball which he can dial up to 96 and he holds his velocity deep into games. His slider is another strikeout pitch to go along with the FB, he also has an improving change which will be the key in determining whether he can be the #2/3 starter I project him as.
Other players considered at this spot: Tim Wheeler
38- Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College
I wanted Heckathorn with this pick coming into the draft but was thrilled when Sanchez fell and so I scooped him up at 38. Catcher is one of the Sox’ thinnest positions so bolstering that spot was a big aim of mine and I think I did that with Sanchez. He doesn’t walk enough or hit for enough power to become a star player but he still has the potential to become an above average offensive and defensive catcher
Other players considered at this spot: Kyle Heckathorn, Rich Poythress
61- Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Forest HS (Fla.)
High school pitching wasn’t in the plan but I couldn’t pass Sampson up at 61. Sampson has a quick arm producing good velocity having hit 96 this year, to go along with the fastball he has a power curve and will also throw in the occasional change up. The change shows a lot of promise but currently ranks as the worst of his three pitches. He’s shown good control and has been able to consistently repeat his delivery. Lots of upside here.
Other players considered at this spot: Victor Black
71- Brian Goodwin, OF, Rocky Mount HS, (NC)
I really wanted Victor Black at this pick and when he went at #70 it threw me off causing me to panic a bit and take Brian Goodwin. I noted in the draft thread that this wasn’t a realistic White Sox pick because he’s a Boras client but I took him anyway. Goodwin has a lot of upside and on talent alone I had him ranked in the supplemental 1st range, he hasn’t hit for the power that the Trout’s and Everett Williams’ have but even still his 5 tools all project to be at least average.
Other players considered at this spot: LeVon Washington, Chris Dwyer
102- Blake Smith, RHP/OF, California
This was easily my least liked pick of the draft, Smith has good stuff but his command is poor and he gets hit around a lot. I’m not sure if I prefer him on the mound or in the field, I’d like to see how his power develops, he could become a solid big league right fielder but he’ll need to de a lot of developing for that to happen. In hindsight I should have taken Ben Tootle but other than this pick I am very happy with how the draft went.
Other players considered at this spot: Ben Tootle
No way Texas lets Miller slid by them
It just wont happen, not under the Jon Daniels regime
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
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