Weglarz vs. Jennings. Who do you take?
by beane_bag on Jun 30, 2009 11:05 PM EDT
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Hey guys, long time reader, first time poster. I've been watching both Nick Weglarz and Desmond Jennings this year, and I thought I would pose the question to the community; who would you rather have?
Weglarz is a year younger and has much more power, but strikes out a good amount, reportedly has poor defense, and has a questionable batting average so far in his minor league career.
Jennings has injury issues but has better strike zone judgement, speed, defense, and should develop decent power in the future.
Interestingly, the two have gone in entirely different directions this year as Jennings started off the year at a torrid pace but has since cooled off considerabely, while Weglarz started the year poorly but has been torrid as of late.
If you had to choose one, who would it be and why?
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Jennings
5 TOOL STUD.
Not even a debate in my opinion.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Jennings
Not even close.
Weglarz has the edge in power and patience… but Jennings has the edge everywhere else.
I also thought Jennings was far and above the better talent, but with Weglarz’ age, and his absolute destruction of AA pitching as of late (.327/.454/.628 in his last 194 trips to the plate *courtesy of baseball america) I think the gap between the two may be shrinking.
Jennings
for the speed and defense. and I think his injuries were just bad luck. he should be fine going forward.
Weglarz’ bat is A+ tho
Age
Also, Jennings got a bit of a late start developmentally, as he was a WR in football.
Jennings or Fowler?
Since I think everyone will agree on the initial question, I’m curious what people think of Fowler vs Jennings, who have similar games.
Alright, I'll take the bait.
Weglarz.
I think Weglarz is going to be a much more valuable hitter in the majors. People have said that Jennings is an elite hitter. I don’t see it. Neutralize for park and luck at Minor League Splits. You get a good, but unimpressive .288/.367/.439 line. He’s got good plate discipline, can hit for average, and with a little power. While that makes a very pleasant prospect, let’s look at Weglarz quickly.
The strength for Weglarz has always been 1.) power and 2.) plate discipline. Some of you have already cited that Weglarz is only hitting about .250 right now. Great, but look at his .286 BABIP. Neutralize for park and luck, like we did for Jennings, and we get a .279/.409/.523 line. That’s an elite line. Period. He’s got insane plate discipline… Yeah, he might strike out a lot, but he’ll put up a K/BB very close to 1, and he’s cut down on his strikeouts dramatically in recent years. As for Weglarz’s power, consider this: Great batting eyes breed great power, and Weglarz is already flashing 25-homer stuff at the age of 21. To me, his bat projects to be comparable to Jim Thome.
I think Jennings has been overrated all year. He belongs on top 100 lists, but people have been advocating for top 10, top 5… I don’t see it. He’s good, and that’s about it. I also think that Weglarz has been criminally underrated throughout his career. He belongs in the discussion for top 50, and I personally think a case could be made for top 25.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 1, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
well done
And i like the neutralization.
But on thome, he was a hit machine in the minors: .327/.432/.530. But he did strike out 20%+ in minors, so…
Agreed
He kind of scared me at the beginning of this year, but he’s definitely come around. He’s been extremely high on my list ever since the beginning of last year andI definitely see the stud potential for him. 270/400/520 stat line is amazing, and that’s what I see him getting.
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For what it's worth
Weglarz has actually been slightly above average this year in LF.
Also, minor league defensive stats are incredibly unreliable. Even if Jennings turns out to be an elite defender, I think Weglarz will be about average in LF. IMO, the difference between them on defense will not make up for the advantage that Weglarz has on offense.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 1, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't say I agree
Weglarz has actually been slightly above average this year in LF.
Not sure where youre getting that from, but as you say minor league defensive metrics arent worth crap. Jennings is a phenomenal athlete and profiles as an excellent defender. Weglarz is big, slow and clunky.
On Weglarz, Goldstein wrote this:
While Weglarz offers plenty in the way of power and patience, they also form the sum of his abilities. He’s a massive kid with below-average speed, and many believe that he’ll quickly grow out of the outfield and be forced to first base in the end.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8467
Ive never heard anyone descrive his defense as slightly above average. He’s a big slow guy who’s a sketchy fit as a corner OF. Im not sure what would make you believe he could be “about average in LF” because I see nothing that indicates he could.
IMO, the difference between them on defense will not make up for the advantage that Weglarz has on offense.
I really cant see this at all. The defensive difference is going to be HUGE, and there will probably also be a positional difference to account for. Im not sure why people around here have such a hard on for Weglarz. Looks like he’s going to be a pretty good hitter. He reminds me of Jeromy Burnitz. Great batting eye and uppercut swing that produces power but not great batting averages. Might not be able to stay in a corner OF. Pretty valuable player – but nothing to get excited about. I would MUCH rather have Jennings. KG had this about Jennings:
Even in the star-packed Arizona Fall League, one scout who saw Jennings said that his tools “stood out like a sore thumb.” He profiles as a top-of-the-order force with outstanding plate discipline, plus-plus speed, and enough power to project for 15-20 home runs annually.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8568
THAT is something to get excited about, IMHO.
Id be very excited to get Weglarz – Ive liked him for a long time… but he has his limitations.
MLEs
For Jennings: .255/.314/.366. Weglarz: .189/.292/.344. Yikes. Plus power though.
Can Dominic Brown still play any center? His mle is .235/.292/.378.
Anyway, even if Jennings can play a great outfield, he also has Endy Chavez bat. :) Just kidding around. First he is young, and second I don’t know that I completely trust that mle line. BTW, Corey brown is at .253/.314/.399, similar to jennings but more power. Just thought while i ws plugghing in names I’d throw him in there.
closer than first impressions
Jennings has the full toolbelt and his performance is living up to that. That said, Weglarz is at .400 in EL at age 21. Jennings .418 a year older. Weglarz more power, more walks. They are both nice prospects. Weglarz’s average being about .250 sticks in my old school craw, but he has been coming on. This is of course not even apples to oranges but potatoes to oranges, but a nice thougt provoking question.
re: age
Yea it’s true he is a year older, but he missed all of last season and basically skipped High A. Baseball age since he lost a season, they are really the same.
But
Weglarz lost a season of development as well. And, he’s Canadian. Which means he has the mind of a seven year old.
Advantage Weglarz.
Funny
Goldstein had this about Weglarz today in an article about disappoint prospects!
Nick Weglarz, OF, Indians (Double-A Akron): “It’s old-player skills, way too early. Even guys who look like that in the big leagues were at least athletes when they were 21 years old in the minor leagues.”
So, lets do a little exercise
If Weglarz was strictly a 1B/DH prospect, where does he rank among 1B prospects?
Jennings all the way.
i've been expecting Weglarz is a 1B all along.
that’s why I comp’d him to Votto in the other thread.
and in this thread, I said I’d take Jennings, so no argument there, but I do think Weglarz’ bat will be good enough that this is not a dumb question over who to take
That's probably fair
Im higher on Jennings bat than most, I suppose… and the injury issues don’t concern me at all. Whereas, I have serious questions about Weglarz’s contact abilities at the MLB level.
So, I agree its worth the discussion… but for me, the answer is obviously Jennings.
votto
i think he will hit for a lot more average. i love, love, love his bat. i think he will hit .300 for a long time. i get the comparison but i’m not sure it fits.
baseball rules.
Irony
Weglarz fits right in with the Cleveland model. Draft big, slow, clunky, corner types that can hit a little but don’t offer much else and have a good chance of contributing but have little chance of being an impact player. For Weglarz to turn out better than Jennings he’s going to have to hit like Jim Thome. I’ll take Jennings by a long shot.
Jennings...
would have to be pretty f***ing incredible for that to be true.
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