Trade Luke Scott/ Aubry Huff for pitching

Brandon Snyder was doing very well in AA and was promoted to AAA a few weeks ago and has since gone downhill a little. What kind of player can he turn into? He was a very high draft pick, did he turn some type of corner this year?

I don’t think there’s a lot to do at this point. The orioles are pretty far along in the rebuilding process. Now it’s more a question of waiting (and hoping) for the young guys to develop.

I would trade Baez and Huff if I can get something decent. I would only trade Scott, Sherrill, and Guthrie if I can get some really excellent prospects - there’s no point in trading them for a bunch of B guys.

Their biggest need at this point is 3B. I’d sign DeRosa to a 2 year deal if he’s not a type A. Or maybe Beltre if he seems healthy.

They could also use a good starter of course, but given the depth in the system I wouldn’t go nuts for a FA.

Assuming Snyder continues to do well, I’d pencil him in for 1b next year. Otherwise, they could probably get a 1-2 year stopgap as a FA. And if they don’t trade Huff, offer him arb. If he accepts, you get a decent 1b for another year, and if not they get the picks.

A lineup next year of

Roberts 2b
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Scott DH
Derosa 3b
Snyder/Huff 1b
Andino/Izturis SS

with a rotation of

Matusz
Tillman
Arrieta
Bergesen
Hernandez/Patton/Guthrie/FA

could easily win 85 games — 90 with some luck. And they should continue to improve as the young players get closer to their peaks.

C Wieters
1B
2B Roberts
SS Izturis
3B Wigginton
LF Reimold
CF Jones
RF Markakis
DH Scott
BN Andino
BN Pie
BN
BN

SP
SP
SP Guthrie
SP Uehara
SP Bergesen
RP Sherill
RP Johnson
RP Ray
RP Albers
RP
RP
RP

These are the guys who are signed through next year and have shown enough at the major league level to be expected to produce. These players will cost about $45MM combined.

The obvious holes to fill are corner infield and pitching.

Step one is to see if you can get anything at the deadline for the free agents-to-be (Huff, Baez, Mora). It’s doubtful these guys will fetch anything more than depth players.

Step two is to make a decision on whether to keep some of the older players who might have more trade value (Guthrie, Sherill, Scott). These players are valuable and cost-controlled, so it should take a lot of talent to move them.

Step three is to assess the internal options. There is obviously a lot of young starting pitching in the high minors and majors, so the rest of the year and next spring should be spent sorting through who is ready to contribute now. Brandon Snyder should be considered for the 1B job if he continues to rake.

Step four is to fill whatever holes are left through free agency. Depending on the Orioles assessment of their finances, they could be willing to spend anywhere from 0 to $50MM in the offseason.

Step five is to break the streak of 12 consecutive losing seasons with the revamped roster.

I would deal Jeremy Guthrie for JJ Hardy if the deal was able to get done first of all….
Huff and Baez to Mets for Brad Holt and Tejeda(Courtesy of Pappas on OH)

2009 would still be a was, but Id make sure that Matusz gets promoted to AAA to get some reps there and insure him being ready for opening day 2010 on the big club

Sign Beltre in the offseason
Bring up Snyder, Matusz, Tillman ,Arrieta for 2010

1B Snyder
2B Roberts
SS Hardy
3B Beltre
C Wieters
LF Reimold
CF Jones
RF Markakis
DH Scott
Bench Zaun
Bench Wiggington
Bench Salazaar
Bench Pie

SP Bergesen
SP Matusz
SP Tillman
SP Arrieta
SP Holt/Uehara/Patton

RP Hernandez
RP Johnson
RP Sherrill
RP Bass
RP Hill
RP Ray
RP Albers

All the relievers would be able to go multiple innings except for Sherrill which would allow me to run with a 12 man pitching staff and a 4 man bench. Both the bullpen and bench will be strengths for the O’s in this case. If anyone goes down with injury, the backups will be able to step in with similar offensive numbers…..

IMO this ball club right here would be able to win you 90 games. You will be competitive and depnding on how well the rookie starters acclimate to the bigs, the ball club has an upside of being a 100 game winner, it all lies on the pitching which has a ton of potential. The way the club is constructed here, you will not need to add anyone else to make it a perrenial contender, you just need to let the arms get used to big league hitting.

The lineup is well balanced with speed, power and hitting ability. The OF is IMO the best young OF in the majors with all 3 of the guys being 5 tool talents. The biggest question mark would be Snyder at first and how well he can continue to progress with the glove. Regardless Im pretty confident that he will hit at the big league level.

The pitching staff has probably the best upside as any other team. Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta and Holt all have TOR potential and Bergy has the ceiling of a #3 kinda guy and is very consistent and will keep the ball in the park on the ground….very well balanced ball club all around…..

How many teams had 4 TOR rookie starters come up at the very same time? You can slip Uehara in there for Holt because Holt wouldnt be ready probably, but that would give you what you need to be a 90 win team…..Matusz will come up and probably do the best of the Big 3 right off bat…..Tillman and Arrieta will probably supply ML average starts in the 1st half and in the 2nd half begin to really take off. You also have to remember that when the Orioles bring up a pitcher, or any player for that matter, they are definately ready. This year every rookie the orioles have brought up have been prepared mentally and physically. The only O’s rook this year who looks out of place IMO is Berken, everyone else hit the ground running pretty much, and you cannot expect that from all the prospects, but the O’s certainly make sure the prospect is ready for the bigs before being brought up……

unless you’re sure Huff won’t accept arbitration, he could possibly think he could get more than arb and doesn’t seem to like Baltimore. Ride out Bergesen, Guthrie and Uehara for all they’re worth, bringing in the three pitching prospects by July next year(be it through relief or otherwise). Get a lot of undervalued players to fill out the roster(it’s hard to identify these guys as a lot of it has to do with advanced scouting and luck), and then in the offseason of 2010, get one or two marquee free agents to lead the team. I’d try to get one real good relief pitcher, one starter and se if there isn’t a good all-around player. Trade prospects if you must. The infield and rotation should be the biggest needs at that point, filling out the bullpen with guys that didn’t make it as starters and bringing arms in through trade and FA.

1. Get Milwaukee on the phone immediately. See if you can turn some combination of Baez, Sherrill and Guthrie (who all immediately improve them on the cheap) for some combination of Escobar/Gamel/Lawrie. Escobar is blocked by JJH and Gamel doesnt look like he can play third (and is blocked at first). Im not sure if you can get 2 of those three but see what works if they want to make a run this year. Guthrie would be their #3 and Sherrill/Baez slot into that pen nicely.

2. Leave everyone but Tillman down this year unless someone forces their way up.

3. See if you can turn Scott into a young reliever

4. Sign Sheets when he is ready to come back with a club option for 2010.

5. Sign a couple FAs this offseason. Preferably a veteran 3B for two years with a 3rd as a club option (Crede?) and a big money starter.
Thinking Bedard/Lackey type if not don’t settle for a second tier guy and save for someone from the 2011 class (Lee/Webb/Halladay)

6. I probably pick up Mora’s option if I cant pick up Gamel or if Snyder/Costanzo don’t earn their way into the lineup. Hes a quality clubhouse guy.

7. Work on signing a Longoria style deal with Weiters and Jones this season. Its time to make that commitment and buy out the arb years along with the first couple FA years.

That leaves an order of
1 2B Roberts
2 CF Jones
3 RF Markakis
4 LF Reimold
5 C Weiters
6 1B Gamel/Snyder
7 DH Gamel/Snyder/Mora
8 3B Crede/Costanzo
9 SS Escobar/Andino/Izturis

With Zaun (or another cheap vet C), Pie/Montanez and Andino/Izturis on the bench

Rotation
SP Veteran Signee (Im saying Lackey)
SP Hill/Uehera/Sheets
SP Rookie #1 Tillman/Matusz/Arrieta/Patton/Hernandez
SP Rookie #2
SP Bergeson (whos earned it so far this season)

The bullpen will look like
RP Bass
RP Hernandez (my guess)
RP Berken
RP Albers
RP Liz/Perez
SU Ray
CL Johnson (you could switch those two)

Its time to spend the money that Angelos promised. Even if its a year early with the youngsters development, having a legit ace at the front of the rotation will take a lot of pressure off the young starters and the pen.

You wind up with most of the order and 3/5ths of the rotation under team control for a couple more years.

As weird as it is to say for a perennial bottom-dweller, I think MacPhail is doing pretty much everything right. Jones-Markakis-Wieters-Reimold-Scott is one of the best young cores in the game, and Brian Roberts is around another 3 years. They have 2 GREAT pitching prospects on the way and a couple other pretty good ones. Bergeson is looking like a revelation. Unfortunately, this all may not be enough, because of their division.

Macphail’s job is to do exactly what he’s doing and hope at the end of the day that a few things break his way. The Orioles should start to be potentially competitive as soon as next year. Probably not ACTUALLY competitive, because the 3 best teams in MLB all play in their division, but they should elevate themselves out of punching bag territory.

BULLPEN: We need to prepare the bullpen for the rising wave of arms. Everyone talks about the Big 3 but there’s a nice depth also due to arrive at about a few arms per year. For me the biggest thing to look to do is increase the managers’ options as much as possible. The primary reason why pitching prospects can struggle is when the manager stays with them too long on outings where they’re struggling. A lot of bad comes out of that, the worst of which can be injury. I wouldn’t preclude the idea of trading Sherrill but I would think long and hard about it. Losing your closer without an obvious replacement could throw the supporting cast for the pitching prospects into question. The bullpen as it’s currently comprised is actually pretty good so far. I would seriously look into making Uehara a RP. On a team with so many young arms due, you can never have too many RPs who can pitch multiple innings. Uehara has struggled but a lot of it is due to stamina, not overall effectiveness. He looks like he could actually be quite a plus in the bullpen. Baez should be absolutely traded since he won’t be back with the club.

BENCH: MacPhail has done a great job of increasing options off the bench by adding bargain good value position players who play mulitiple positions. If I ntpicked I may want more speed there. I would find more versatile speed/good bat combinations there. Not enough can be said in how much the Os have improved in this area this year. One may see the difference in their ability to cover injuries and keeping starters fresh. The Os might see it in fighting off an Aug-Sept swoon.

INFIELD: During the offseason the decision has to be made at 3B. Either Wiggington takes over and we replace the value he brought to the bench, or, we keep him there and add a 3B. Mora is gone and pretty untradable. The fact that he has quintuplets seems to factor into his willingness to waive his No Trade clause so there’s not much hope there. Itzturis is signed for another year and he has stabilized SS with a timely bat and excellent glove, both are nice additions to surround young pitchers with. I would try to find a 1B option thru trade (maybe that earlier mentioned Baez trade?). Snyder’s glove is underrated but he isn’t ready to be handed the fulltime 1B job. His bat may eventually be ready for 1B but I question if his defense makes him the longterm answer there. If we can’t find a trade then I’d be happy with a cheap good value option from the free agent market. To Salazar’s credit he’s proving his bat can hit ML pitching but he may be due to be part of a package in a trade. His age doesn’t make sense for this team.

GUTHRIE: I hear a lot about trading him but this is obviously an off year for him. What’s markedly different this season is that his fastball command has been non-existent. He’s a better pitcher than he’s shown, but his value is at a career low. If the big league club were flush with SPs I would but since it isn’t, the club should hold onto him and hope he turns things around in the second half.

to compete in 2010 and I know starving Orioles fans want them to splash big time in Free Agency. I will say this, they MUST get a very good above average pitcher to head that rotation to stabilize it. Being a Clevelander, The Indians getting Dennis Martinez and Hershiser was imperitive in the 90’s.

I don’t know who that person is, but he could be Lackey (as mentioned above). they also need to get a corner infielder and the Idea of Gamel sounds like a winner.

I say be aggressive in signing Lackey try to find a deal for Gamel (I don’t think Guthrie gets him) and go from there. Lackey, Tillman, Guthrie, Matusz and Arrieta in 2010 would be good to win some games, get the young kids the experience and then go for it. Listen, the Indians did it with A young core and look at the Rays young core…it can be done, but in that division a stabalizing force in the rotation and adding a nice corner bat would be huge!