Hypothetical Bobby Jenks trade
by StickRat on Jun 28, 2009 4:25 AM EDT
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Last time I posted one of these hypothetical trade threads I got bombarded with negative comments. And since the wife was being a sweetheart all day today, I figured what better way to get my daily dose of abuse than to post another. So here goes.
If the White Sox continue to falter and find themselves a seller as the trade deadline nears, how would the Sickels community feel about a Bobby Jenks trade? Here is the hypothetical trade proposal: Jenks to Tampa Bay for 3B Willy Aybar, RHP Jeremy Hellickson, adn LHP John Satow.
Specific questions: Is this a balanced trade? If not, how to balance it? Is it plausible?
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I hope not!!
I just traded so much more for him in a fantasy league!
I think baseball GM’s have been much smarter when it comes to value over the past few years. But maybe closers are the exception.
It could take much more than that, but who really knows. Closers are certainly a wild card.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
I am sure
redsoxfaithful shall enlighten us with why you are a fool.
Here is a tip: Don’t respond. When you argue with the stupid, they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
just looking at it with the naked eye, i think its plausible, hellickson is good….if they could get brignac instead of aybar and or satow i thinkk that would fit their needs better
Disagree
I think with Beckham and Ramirez, it is doubtful that Chicago is looking for a MI prospect. What about a Wade Davis and Hellickson for Jenks swap?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 28, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
That's way too much
No team is going to trade two pitching prospects as good as Hellickson and Davis in one trade unless they’re getting back an elite starter. I think substituting Brignac for Aybar makes it too much, too. The Rays almost got Bay for Niemman and Brignac last year.
Bingo!!!!
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jun 28, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get it
I agree that the White Sox would be getting more than the Rays would be giving up, but this doesn’t seem to me like a ridiculous deal. Davis and Hellickson are both very good pitching prospects, but pitching prospects are by definition risky. In terms of strict production, there is a very real chance that Jenks will out-strip them over the rest of their careers. Particularly considering the Rays have a lot of starting pitching, both at the majors, in the upper minors, as well as even more coming up, it is not inconceivable that they might decide to trade that away for a more traditional reliever (even though starters are more valuable than relievers, it is a different skill set. Some pitchers who would get a 4.00 ERA as starters would have 2.00 as RPs, and others would still have a 4.00). Again, I’m not saying that I would do the deal, but it doesn’t seem out of this world
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This certainly isn’t abuse-worthy, and the core idea of which big-ticket guy is going where makes an awful lot of sense.
why it isn't plausible
the AL Central is winnable for the Sox pretty much every year, Jenks won’t be a free agent until after 2011, so while you can argue whether the package is fair for him, the fact is I don’t see any reason the Sox would want to trade him.
by GoldenSpikes24 on Jun 28, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions
because jenks is going to be very, very expensive in arbitration the next couple years.
which is another reason i doubt the rays would want him.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
How expensive?
You could be right, and this is the one area that could prevent such an acquisition for the Rays. Jenks is making about $5.5 million this year. Is he going to double that next year? Because I imagine if the current market holds, he won’t surpass the $7 million a year mark in 2010; and maybe not even 2011. That’s the real question though: How expensive is Jenks going to be over his final two years of arbitration?
i'd recommend looking up comparables
considering that’s what arbitration is all about. what f. rodriguez got is a pretty good start. “current market” isn’t all that relevant in the arbitration context since such things are explicitly not allowed to be considered.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
The Rays wouldn't go after a closer
they’ve said during the season that they can’t add salary, also Hellickson has a great minor league track record but he may be the type of pitcher that wouldn’t do well in the new comiskey, he is a pitch to contact pitcher without over powering stuff. Also the Rays love the flexibility Willy Aybar gives them (and the price) and with Zobrist taking over at 2nd the Rays need someone who can play around the infield, not to mention Howell has been closing games effectively for the Rays. The trade you proposed seems reasonable though for a team in the right financial position and with a need for bullpen help. Sorry to be so negative, maybe another team would give up a similar package.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jun 28, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions
How much salary would they really be adding though? Jenks is contracted for $5.5 million this year, about $1.75 million would defer to the Rays for a deadline deal. Between Troy Pervical and that, you’re talking approx $5.75 million combined for the closer position. Subtract Aybar’s deferal to the White Sox and that takes it down to about $5.25 million. Next year, Aybar is set to make about $1 million, and Percival’s $4 million will be off the books. So would the Rays really be adding THAT much salary if they acquired Jenks? (Also, see the above “How expensive?” post for the arbitration factor.)
rays need that salary space
Rays have Upton, Zobrist, Garza, and a couple of other players hitting arb next year which will easily make up for losing Percy and another couple of mil, and while no one knows if the owners are just saying they don’t have any money and are deficit spending this year or are positioning for a new stadium, we have to go with the several statements saying they can’t add any money and that they wouldn’t have been able to afford Kapler and Shouse (both for around 2.5 mil) without last years playoff run. Although I believe Jenks to be an elite player, the Rays FO, from their past deals believe you can build a bullpen from within.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jun 28, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
The Rays wouldn't deal Hellickson or Davis for Jason Bay or Adam Dunn.
There is absolutely no chance that either would be dealt for a closer of all things. And throwing in Aybar? Good heavens, maybe if Andrew Friedman suffers brain damage.
-1
ahhh, I think they’d deal Hellickson for Bay.
especially if Bay is off the Bo Sox because of it.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 29, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
They didn't last year though.
when the deal was (supposedly) on the table.
"You end up with a name like ‘Outman,’" he said last week. "What else are you going to do? You’re going to get people out, man." ~ Dallas Braden
No. The deal on the table was Niemann and Brignac.
They wanted Davis or Hellickson instead of Niemann. The Rays refused. The Pirates actually agreed to the deal, then went to the Red Sox/Dodgers and said this is the best we’ve got beat it and they did.
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Not plausible at all. Maybe Aybar straight up, Maybe?
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
Oh, and its Josh Satow.
And we do not want a closer.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
It's not that we don't want one, it's that we already have one.
And he’s better than Bobby Jenks.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Jun 28, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
RJ Andersons made some great post about this over at draysbay, Maddon is one of the best in the majors at using his bullpen in a non-traditional manner.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Jun 28, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Fer Chrissakes, some of the people here are awful.
If you disagree, just say why. There doesn’t have to be any brain damage, mental disabilities or drugs involved.
This one doesn't work
Part of it is the front office you’d be dealing with though…
- The Rays don’t have room to add payroll at the moment, and Jenks is expensive (and about to get even more expensive)
- The Rays FO isn’t concerned with saves. Frankly, it’s somewhat of a junk stat, and it’s popularization has led to closers generally getting overpaid relative to the actual value of a closer. Sure, a lights-out closer helps a good team, but a great closer generally doesn’t help the team more than a merely above average starter, and marginal value is even more important on a low-payroll team.
- Giving up one regular and another potential regular for someone who pitches 60 innings a year isn’t really their style.
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Saves ... #s vs. ability
Thanks for the response, and all the other responses by the way.
I agree with you in a sense about saves being an overrated stat. However, that doesn’t diminish the importance of being able to close games, especially down the stretch and in postseason situations. Having a dominant closer is pretty much the one common bond between most World Series winners in recent memory. The ’06 Cards got away with not having a premier closer, but that team had anamolies on so many levels, the closer situation was just one of many unlikelyhoods that team had to overcome.
if a team is serious about making a run at a World Championship, there almost has to be a dominant arm at the back of the bullpen. Not just someone who can earn saves, but someone who can face elite hitters on a national stage and be depended on to get outs. If the Phils lost Game 1 of the World Series last year, the entire complexion of the postseason could have been different. And, Brad Lidge saved that game with a one-run lead, retiring Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, and Carl Crawford in order. Executing in THAT situation is the difference between having an elite closer, as opposed to say a closer by committee.
This said, I agree with you about the Rays FO, and hadn’t really thought about it that way. I’m inclined to believe the Rays won’t be in the market for Jenks, thanks to your and the other above input.
Um
You do realize that Adam Wainwright was the Cards closer in the 2006 postseason, right? 9 IP, 0 ER and 15 K is pretty damn dominant to me. It’s just such a shame their wasting his talent as a starting pitcher instead of relegating him to being just an elite closer.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jun 30, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I do. He inherited the role when Jason Ishringhausen though. So he wasn’t a premier closer. (I guess neither were Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Jenks when they won World Championships as rookies, but neither of them missed a beat, and went on to be.) And Wainwright wasn’t nearly as dominant as that line would indicate. In Game 7 of the NLCS he loaded the bases in the ninth inning. And through the entire postseason, he every save he earned saw the Cards leading by two runs. He never had to protect a one-run lead. Don’t get me wrong, he was still fantastic. But also the Cards starting pitching afforded him some opportune situations.
What part of "dominant"
is determined by what the score is when a pitcher enters the game?
Closer dominance is determined by whether or not a closing pitcher is “dominant”. Coming in with two-run leads, then putting tying and winning runs on base … that isn’t dominant. Effective maybe. Brad Lidge in last year’s World Series was dominant.
"Dominant"
is a high strikeout rate and a low WHIP. Dominance is in the results.
I agree with most of this...
but I do think the Rays need bullpen help. If they could get a solid relief ace for the right price Im sure they wouldnt have trouble annointing the guy as “Closer,” either. I just dont think theyll find a price they like or that Bobby Jenks is the kind of guy they would target…
They have a relief ace.
His name is J.P. Howell and he’s probably the second best reliever in the American League.
Just because nobody knows about him doesn’t mean he’s not better than just about everyone.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 1, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I said "bullpen help"
though their pen isnt really that bad at all. I think theyre actually second in bullpen ERA (not the best measure, but still…). I still think they could definitely stand to shore it up a little… there are a couple deadbeats in there.
Who?
Dan Wheeler? He’s a league average reliever. The only reliever that I could legitimately see being released is Joe Nelson and he’s been pretty good lately. The Rays pen is very solid top to bottom.
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Bradford, for one. Im not shocked that Balfour couldnt repeat his 09 season either. Those guys havent been that great.
I also feel a couple guys are playing over their heads… Choate, obviously, but a lot of that is smart usage. Cormier I expect to fall off. The other guys are all exceeding expectations and I think its fair to expect some regression in the second half… though who the hell knows with relievers.
All I was saying is, If Im Friedman, and Im looking for place to upgrade the club I probably look at the end of the pen. If he could acquire another premium bullpen arm Im sure he would love to. My original point was Bobby Jenks aint that guy.
Bradford has always been good and has only thrown 2 innings this year.
No ones shocked Balfour didn’t repeat his success, but he’s still above-average. Choate is clearly not an elite reliever, but as you said, he’s being used almost perfectly. It’s my opinion that Joe Maddon manages the bullpen as well as any manager in the league. Sometimes he over manages if anything, but more often than not, he puts his players in situations that play to their strengths. And that, along with the Rays excellent defense allows their pen to “play over their heads.”
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