Brett Gardner

by wobatus on Jun 27, 2009 11:20 AM EDT Comment 13 comments

Hmm, the Butler comparison doesn't seem so ridiculous now, does it. Admittedly, he'd have to have a very long career, but he is already out-OPSing Butler at the same age when Butler had his first full season in the minors and turned 26 (1983 with Braves). All I was suggesting was the skill set was similar, and the power is a bit flukey, an inside the parker and one right where te Citi field left field juts out. But he has been serviceable.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/9/24/620941/analysis-of-yankees-prospe#8977135

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Well

here’s hoping he keeps proving me wrong, but it would be quiet something if he ends up being able to nearly cut his K% by 10! from the high minors to majors.

by RollingWave on Jun 27, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Was Butler also a platoon player?

Gardner has 121 ABs vs. RHP, and only 31 vs. LHP.

He’s the same guy everyone thought he was… the Yankees are just aware of his limitations and have put him in a good position to succeed.

His defense has looked very good, too, but SSS problems there as well.

by alskor on Jun 27, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

IIRC

his platoon splits were nearly identical in the minors, i think that the disparity in the AB numbers may be more about girardi’s obsession with L/R matchups. if the trends of gardner and melky continue, id expect to see gardner get more AB’s vs lefties

by skiinginNJ on Jun 27, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Daaron? Is that you?

by RedSoxFaithful on Jun 27, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ha

I deserve that. Premature victory lap. But if you check, butler wasn’t BUTLER either the year he turned 26. Not saying he’ll be that good but butler lite comparable doesn’t seem offbase. He has a long way to go. But given that others thought he couldn’t even ops .700…but I know, way early. And frankly, I am not a Yankee fan anyway. But he has been a serviceable guy in his role.

by wobatus on Jun 27, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

btw

I doubt Brett Butler could have become Brett Butler if the folks running teams in the ’80s would have found a comparison of Gardner to Butler to be absurd.

Butler’s wOBA at 24 was .258 in 1982, at 25 (he turned 26 in June 1983) it was .328 and in ’84 it was .333. His career line was .345.

Gardner has usually improved his second go around in a league. At 22 in A+ in 2006 he wOBA’d .414. In 2007 in AA he wOBA’d .372. At AAA last year .388. In the majors this year .378. Same year, his first full year, Butler did .328.

As for his k rate coming down, note that also his walk rate has come done, kind of in tandem. His approach has been slightly different. Although his k rate is not that out of line with his AA k rate in ’07.

In the thread during the off-season I referred to, someone said zero chance he could equal Butler, but people cited Butler’s counting stats over his career. Longevity is one thing. Type of player and type of slash line he might put up diffeent things altogether. And given where they are at their respective ages, Gardner does seem capable of MAYBE doing the type of things Butler did.

And it is true, he hasn’t played a hell of a lot yet. And not all that much against lefties. But he seems to be getting more time.

He obviously has to keep it up, and no, I don’t expect him to OPS .815 the rest of the way.

There was a discussion just now on the radio of him maybe being the starting left fielder for the yankees next year. One guy suggested not enough pop for a corner, but the yankes get pop all over anyway.

by wobatus on Jun 27, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I doubt Brett Butler could have become Brett Butler if the folks running teams in the ’80s would have found a comparison of Gardner to Butler to be absurd.

Huh?

Anyway, Brett Butler had a career minor league OPS of .913, and a career minor league OBP of .461(!). Gardner did not come close to either of those numbers in the minors. They are not particularly comparable in terms of production. Minor league slash lines:

Butler: .338/.461/.452
Gardner: .291/.389/.385

Gardner may develop into a Butler type player; it is unlikely, but not impossible. They do have similar skill sets, though Butler did just about everything better. However, their careers up to age 25 are not very similar, regardless of what Gardner has done in limited time this year.

by aCone419 on Jun 29, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good points

I forgot about the minor league numbers, so you are correct. All i meant by the highlighted phrase was that Butler had a fairly weak obp and slugging his first few years in the majors, and people may have never had him as a regular in this day and age, so he may not have developed.

You are right, though, his minor league lines were quite good and much higher OPS than Gardner. Higher ISO and defiintely higher batting average and obp.

Oh well. Butler also was playing in the sally league at 23. And as I said, Gardner typically took a year to adjust to his level.

If we go back to slash lines at 25: Butler was .363/.442/.471 at AAA at 25, but about 1/3rd a season. Gardner was .296/.414/.422, the iso a little higher over a longer stretch of time. obviously the average and walks not as high. Their major league line same year was Butler .217/.291/.225, gardner .228/.283/.299. Small samples, obviously.

Gardner this year .289/.367/421, Butler .281/.344/.393. Full year though.

Yeah, i guess it’s a stretch. Like I said, maybe Butler lite.

by wobatus on Jun 30, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No chance

I wasn’t around for the no chance to be Butler conversation, but I’ll go on record saying there is NO WAY Gardner is the starting LF for the Yanks in 2010.

by GoldenSpikes24 on Jun 27, 2009 10:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

not Yankee style generally. I am a little surprised they gave him the at-bats this year.

by wobatus on Jun 28, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

152 ABs

Scott Podsednik now is up to 200+

…

Its a little early.

by alskor on Jun 27, 2009 10:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

indeed

But of course last winter he had almost zero at bats. That’s why it is a prediction. And not even that, since I can’t say how many at-bats he will get. Butler got a lot of seasons to become decent, whereas in the current environment he would perhaps not have gotten the opportunity.

And of course I am likely fixated on the name Brett. I suppose I could go try and claim Michael Bourns 300 plate appearances make him a Butler candidate. Ignoring all prior evidence to the contrary. :)

Now if only I had bet that Gardner would out-ops Snider in their first 100-150 PAs this year. SSS gambling heaven. :) And I am still waiting for Pelfrey to turn into a decent starter. Oh well, maybe he can go on a run like he did last year and get below 4.00 e.r.a., much less FIP. :)

by wobatus on Jun 28, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Noodle arm

He’s looked good so far, though I really think he’s going to regress, and don’t think he’s more than a 5th outfielder in the long run. But his arm has at times looked extraordinarily bad. There are times when I think it would be faster for him to just run the ball to the infield.

I am rooting for the guy, though. It’s hard to not root for a major leaguer who’s smaller than Travis Hafner’s post-workout lunch.

by aap212 on Jun 28, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs