LSU and Texas: Looking into the Future

by John Sickels on Jun 25, 2009 10:37 AM EDT Comment 22 comments

So LSU wins the College World Series, defeating the Texas Longhorns 11-4 Wednesday. I haven't watched the game yet but have the DVR recording ready to go.

Here are some fun, unsubstantiated predictions/guesses about Tiger and Longhorn players with pro futures:

**Jared Mitchell will sign fairly quickly with the White Sox. He will be assigned to the Great Falls in the Pioneer League, where he will hit .372/.401/.474 with 11 steals in 34 games. He'll be promoted to Kannapolis in the Sally League at that point, where he'll hit .200/.244/.297 with two steals in 19 games, leaving people to wonder about his bat after all. In 2010 he'll play for 87 games for Winston-Salem, hitting .297/.398/.454 with 29 steals, then will move to Double-A Birmingham where he'll hit .259/.337/.410 with 14 steals in 48 games.

**D.J. LeMahieu will sign with the Cubs in early July. He'll go to Boise in the Northwest League and win league MVP honors, hitting .355/.410/.595 and being named top prospect in the Northwest League by Baseball America, with scouts surprised by his power output. He'll begin 2010 with Daytona in the Florida State League, hit .290/.341/.462 in 100 games, then be promoted to Double-A and hit .265/.329/.402 in 29 games for Tennessee. He'll emerge as a solid defensive second baseman.

**Louis Coleman will sign with the Royals next week. They will handle him gently due to his workload this spring, putting him on a pretty strict pitch count at Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League. He'll make five starts there but pitch just 21 innings, with a 17/4 K/BB and 17 hits allowed. He'll move up to the Midwest League and make five more starts for Burlington, pitching 24 innings with a 20/4 K/BB and 23 hits allowed. He'll have a brilliant 2010 spring training and open '10 in Double-A, where he'll post a 3.89 ERA with a 91/41 K/BB in 120 innings for Northwest Arkansas, allowing 129 hits.

**Ryan Schimpf will sign with the Blue Jays quickly and hit .275/.347/.432 in 52 games for Auburn in the New York-Penn League, which will just look okay but will actually be in the Top Ten OPS for that circuit. He'll spend 2010 with Dunedin in the Florida State League, hitting .284/.352/.429, showing a lot of polish but perhaps less power than expected.

**Blake Dean will sign with the Twins in mid July, hit .333/.397/.610 in 24 games for Elizabethton, then move up to Beloit and hit just .222/.239/.363 in 21 games. Scouts will wonder if his approach will work with wood. He'll return to Beloit to begin '10, hit .279/.343/.490 through 49 games, them move to the Florida State League and hit .266/.339/.432 in 58 games.

**Anthony Ranaudo will enter 2010 as LSU's ace, but he'll hurt his shoulder in early March, be sidelined for the rest of the month and in April. He'll come back in May and pitch okay, but his velocity will be down and no one will be sure what to do with him on draft day. He'll end up being drafted in the fourth round early on the second day, will rehab his arm, look good in July '10 workouts, then sign with whoever drafted him right before the August '10 deadline.

**LSU outfielder Leon Landry will have a breakthrough '10 season and end up being drafted in the second round, the first LSU player picked.

**Austin Wood will sign with the Tigers next week. He'll look awful in the New York-Penn League for Oneonta, pitching 11 innings before being shut down, allowing 17 hits with a 9/3 K/BB. He'll rest and come back strong in '10, pitching brilliant relief innings at three levels and ending the season in Triple-A. He'll pitch for the Tigers as a LOOGY in '11 but will have an up-and-down career.

**Brandon Belt will sign with the Giants, hit .279/.332/.459 in 49 games for Salem-Keizer. He'll begin '10 with San Jose in the California League, hit a quick .333/.395/.500 in 32 games, then move up to Double-A and struggle for Connecticut, hitting .241/.301/.384 in 93 games as better pitchers exploit the holes in his swing.

**The Longhorns produce a first round pick (RHP Brandon Workman) and two second round picks (breakout OF Kevin Keyes and RHP Chance Ruffin) in 2010. Russ Moldenhauer has a terrific senior year and ends up drafted in the fifth round

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Interesting

I’ll be mildly surprised if LeMahieu starts at Daytona in 2010. The Cubs drafted a similar guy in Ryan Flaherty, and considering he hasn’t set the world afire this year, I think, barring a late surge, he’s probably headed to Daytona to start 2010 as a MI. Even if he somehow jumps to Tennessee, high upside kid Junior Lake has a shot to be at Daytona. Unless they feel comfortable about Junior Lake at short full time, he’ll see a lot of bag time at 2nd. Considering how aggressive the Cubs were this past year with some players, I could see Hak-ju Lee get pushed to Daytona if he has a strong season at Boise.

Only time will tell.

by toonsterwu on Jun 25, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Taylor?

Nothing about Jungmann, eh? :(

by BobbyMac on Jun 25, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

soph

He’s a soph next year…I don’t think he’s draft eligible.

If you want something about him, I predict he is great next year but hurt his arm in ’11.

by John Sickels on Jun 25, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps a reference...

… to the idea that Texas coaches overwork their pitchers?
This was a common complaint about Cliff Gustafson, insisted on by Peter Gammons. And now resurfacing because of the Austin Woods outing against Boston College.

Or is there something about Jungman’s mechanics that suggest future arm problems? He certainly seems to have an adequate size and frame.

by Jihan1 on Jun 28, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jungmann

His mechanics look like they have an awful lot of moving parts to me and stress his shoulder. Just from seeing him on TV…I’d need to see more video and a more technical breakdown of it to be sure, but that’s my current impression.

by John Sickels on Jun 29, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought there was talking

About making Coleman a reliever in KC, but I could misremembering.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 25, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Yeah, that has been talked about.

by John Sickels on Jun 25, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think

they’ll pitch him in relief at Burlington or Wilmington…then reevaluate this fall/next spring.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jun 25, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ochinko

He had a great final game (4-5, HR), drafted in the 11th round by Toronto. Playing alongside Schimpf, at what level do you see him topping out at?
Thanks

by ofsticksandbats on Jun 25, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ochinko

Forgot about him.

Hits .245/.321/.397 in the New York-Penn League, but then moves to low-A in ’10 hitting .275/.339/.435.

by John Sickels on Jun 25, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 big flaws in your crystal ball

Angel Villalona will be playing 1B for the Giants in AA in 2010, so no room for Belt unless Villalona is injured. Besides, the Giants won’t be playing in Conn. next year, they’ll be moving to Richmond.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jun 25, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anthony Ranaudo

I wasn’t overly impressed with Ranaudo last night. He’s got a decent 88-92 MPH sinker but also a curveball that usually either hung or was out of the zone and not much of a changeup. I’m surprised he’s done so well this year. Reminds me of a Kyle McCulloch type.

by UncleBuck44 on Jun 25, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Waittasecond

Buck, you were taking us to task at Project Prospect for judging Hochevar on his first start this year, and you’re going to do the same thing to Ranaudo based on the last start of an extremely long year against the second best team in the country? I watched all of his CWS starts and the curve was pretty good most of the time: tight, not loopy, coming out of the same slot as the FB. The FB velo was down from earlier in the year (although he threw a 93-mph four-seamer past a Texas hitter for a swinging strikeout in game 3) but he’s more about locating the FB down in the zone than in maxing out his velocity. As I said on Project Prospect, think Chris Volstad. Not lights out stuff, but good enough and the arsenal is quality. He’s a 6-5 kid with reasonably smooth, repeatable mechanics, who throws downhill.

I agree with John that there’s some injury worry. Ranaudo only threw 12 innings in his freshman season, so this was a drastic increase in workload.

by blackoutyears on Jun 26, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Big Difference

I’m commenting on Ranaudo’s stuff, not his performance. The kid was pitching in the deciding game of the CWS so I would imagine his arm was pumped up quite a bit and his fastball was still mostly 88-92.
I’m not a fan of judging a guy who has very good stuff because he had one bad outing like people on Project Prospect were with Hochevar. The guy has the stuff to succeed as at least a #3 starter in the majors. He just needs to throw it to the sides and not to the middle of the plate. I just don’t think its very wise to judge him based on one start like a lot of people did with Dan Haren in 2004.

FWIW, I also saw Ranaudo pitch in Super Regionals and wasn’t overly impressed then either. It doesn’t help that he doesn’t have much of a changeup although it may have just been a bad two games for it. I do like that he throws his sinker low in the zone quite a bit and overall has pretty good command of the pitch. But when you project the kid out and try to picture him in the majors in 4-5 years, I don’t see a top of the rotation guy. Chris Volstad is a good best case comparison.
This is all just my opinion, though.

P.S. Hochevar’s numbers in his last 4 starts:
2-1, 3.72 ERA, 26.2 INN, 19 H, 6 BB, 13 K

And most of the damage came in one game. He’s getting more comfortable in the majors.

by UncleBuck44 on Jun 26, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So it’s okay to judge a pitcher’s stuff based on one outing, but not their performance? Um hmmm. I believe you saw him in other outings, but you might have noted that.

Hochevar has certainly improved, although only his last start was truly stellar, and it came against Houston, didn’t it? My Reds made him look like a Cy Young candidate too, so I’m not exactly popping the cork on the champagne, since they just helped Brian Tallett set a career high in strikeouts this week.

I agree that Ranaudo’s stuff doesn’t scream top of the rotation. I disagree that the curve is less than a solid average pitch. Even when he’s not throwing it for strikes the rotation is tight and the arm slot is good. Every once in a while he gets under it, but rarely. And while I might call his normal FB a two-seamer, I wouldn’t call it a sinker as there’s no sink. There’s little movement on his FB period, which is probably where I’d ding him the most, not on the breaking ball which is his lone above average pitch.

And as for the velo ratings in the game you reference, according to Adam at Project Prospect Ranaudo hit 93 three times and 92 22 times, so 25 pitches at 92-93 is plenty good velo. I’m skeptical of some of the early season velo ratings, but then I also think that a kid who threw 12 innings last season probably isn’t going to maintain peak velocity in innings 100-125 this year. It seems safe to opine that command will be the determining factor in Ranaudo’s being a successful pro pitcher. I wouldn’t bet against him.

by blackoutyears on Jun 26, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

?

“So it’s okay to judge a pitcher’s stuff based on one outing, but not their performance? Um hmmm.”

I see absolutely nothing wrong with that, especially when the outing is the CWS Finals game 3. If you don’t have your good stuff in that one, at least after the 1st inning once the nerves have settled, then I don’t know when you are going to have your best stuff.
I see very little logic in judging a pitcher based on performance in one game. See Dan Haren.

I’d also say Ranaudo’s curveball hung quite a bit in the two games I saw him pitch in the postseason. I like the tightness of the pitch and its a good curve when he throws it right but he didn’t throw it well enough times to really impress me. For a guy with just average-ish velocity, it’d be nice to see him throw his curveball where he needs to a lot more. The problem usually seemed to be that he was cutting his delivery off. He wasn’t finishing the pitch all that well. That is easily correctable, though.

To go back to Hochevar, I don’t get how you can say only his last start was truly stellar. His 3 good lines in his past 4 starts are:
7 INN, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K vs. Houston
9 INN, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K vs. Cincy
6.2 INN, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K vs. Toronto

Shutting down Toronto on the road is very impressive. That team can hit. Houston is a pretty solid hitting team as well with Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. And a 1 run, 3 hit complete game effort is a stellar outing against any team in my book.

by UncleBuck44 on Jun 27, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're missing the point

Judging a pitcher on his last outing of the year when he threw minimally the year before is illogical. See Carmona, Fausto the year the Indians lost the Sox. He’d been used in relief the year before, converted to starter, pitched great all year and was completely gassed by the playoffs. If you’d judged him based on starts against NYY and CLE in the post-season you’d have thought he was terrible, when he’d actually been a poor man’s Brandon Webb. Ignoring the fact that Ranaudo threw 12 innings last year when assessing his stuff at the end of this one is silly. Period. Amen. If he was a junior who’d thrown 120 innings every year it might make sense. Under these circumstances it makes none.

Re Hochevar, 10 K’s in 22.2 IP is not stellar, and echoes his unimpressive Triple-A strikeout totals. He’s currently at an 18:17 K:BB in 45 IP, roughly half his whiff rate from Triple-A. Not exactly an indicator of future success.

by blackoutyears on Jun 30, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds great for 2010, John

I’m moving to Austin in August to go to grad school at UT, and I’m looking forward to catching a lot of baseball.

by mrkupe on Jun 25, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How do you think LeMahieu compares to the former LSU middle infielders currently with the Cubbies (Theriot and Fontenot)??

by Caernarvon on Jun 26, 2009 2:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

apples and oranges

completely different kinds of players

by nms on Jun 26, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lemahieu

Basically thats what the Cub scouting director said when asked about Lemahieu.

by Slamdog on Jun 29, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am 100% in agreement on Landry's 2010 year

as well as Moldenhauer.

Moldenhauer, lets remember, was a really high pick out of HS who had a good fresh and soph year until getting set back with injuries this year. Still, how he went entirely unpicked is a joke to me (well, I took him in my fake draft : )
He is still a very naturally talented bat.

Landry I agree even more on. The glove is Gold, the bat has power…. hes a ballplayer

by nms on Jun 26, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs