Sleeper Alert Analysis, Part Two
by John Sickels on Jun 24, 2009 4:19 PM EDT
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Continuing with the Sleeper Alert prospect reviews, here are nine more, now covering 23 of the 44. I don't think I was consciously aware of this at the time, but it looks like I noticed a lot more pitching sleepers than hitting sleepers this year.
Trevor Harden, RHP, Diamondbacks
21 years old, went 5-1, 2.39 with a 31/7 K/BB in 38 innings for South Bend in the Midwest League. Promoted to Visalia in the Cal League, is 1-6 so far but with a 3.99 ERA and a 23/6 K/BB in 47 innings, 65 hits allowed. Overall he is 6-7, 3.28 with a 54/13 K/BB in 85 innings, 93 hits. His command has been excellent, but his strikeouts are way down and his hits way up since moving up to Visalia.
Jairo Heredia, RHP, Yankees
19 years old. Has missed the entire season with an injury, although what exactly this injury is hasn't been made public to my knowledge.
Chris Hicks, RHP, Astros
22 years old, 6.09 ERA with a 55/22 K/BB in 68 innings for Class A Lancaster, 97 hits allowed. I know that's a tough pitching environment, but it is hard to find a good spin here. . .his control has been OK. But other than that, not much to be happy about and no evidence that this call will pan out.
Deryk Hooker, RHP, Cardinals
20 years old. Just started pitching for Batavia in the New York-Penn League. Threw four shutout innings in his first start before coming out due to pitch count.
J.J. Hoover, RHP, Braves
21 years old. 3.06 ERA with 67/9 K/BB in 62 innings for Class A Rome, 65 hits allowed. This are higher than I'd like at slightly more than one per inning, but the K/IP and K/BB are very strong so far. I'm happy with this one.
Jeremy Horst, LHP, Reds
23 years old. 2-8, 3.52 with a 58/23 K/BB in 77 innings for Class A Sarasota, 74 hits allowed. Just promoted to Double-A this week, allowed five runs in 5.2 innings in his first start. Numbers at Sarasota were OK but not great. Still, he's been promoted; hard to complain about that.
T.J. House, LHP, Indians
19 years old, didn't pitch last year after signing late; I rated him as a sleeper based on scouting reports, video, and intuition. He's 2-7 but with a 2.74 ERA and a 58/24 K/BB in 69 innings for Class A Lake County, 55 hits allowed. Very impressive for a high school guy who skipped rookie ball. Has above average stuff for a lefty.
Dan Houston, RHP, Rockies
22 years old, 2-6, 4.39 with a 52/30 K/BB in 68 innings for Class A Asheville, 67 hits allowed, 2.11 GO/AO. He's got good stuff but will definitely have to sharpen his command at higher levels.
Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox
22 years old, has pitched at three levels already this year, promoted to Double-A late last week. Is a combined 6-5, 2.43 with an 87/17 K/BB in 74 innings, just 49 hits allowed. Excellent component ratios, which he had last year in college also despite a disappointing season overall for Old Dominion. Keep a really close eye on this one.
I'm very pleased with Hudson, House, and Hoover. Can't tell about the injured Heredia or short-season Hooker yet. Hicks looks like the big failure. He was ineffective in college, but I rated him as a sleeper due to good stuff and nice pitching in a small sample size last year after turning pro.
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Hooker was assigned to start in Quad Cities (Low A) at the beginning of the season, but was suspended for drug abuse. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back up to Quad Cities pretty soon.
Hooker
He has put up fantastic numbers ever since he was drafted in 2007. Throws strikes with a 92-95 mph fastball and gets a lot of swings and misses. But this drug suspension really took him down a notch in my book. This just screams unreliability in the future.
I’ll keep an eye on him, but I have my doubts he ever lives up to his potential. Anyone that would jeopardize a professional baseball career over a recreational drug problem, should never be relied upon to provide good results.
Jeremy Horst
wasn’t promoted, he was just needed to make a spot start in AA and has since been sent back down to Sarasota.
Trevor Harden
Big Harden fan. I think him and Jason Wojnar are going to be bigtime players in the bigs one day.
about Chris Hicks..
He did pitch away games much much better.
31.2IP 30SO/11BB 3.41ERA but he still gave up too much hits (.295 opponents BA)
Pitchers
John,
Why do you think almost all of the players you tabbed as sleepers are pitchers? Do you feel you have a better eye for them, or perhaps is it because pitchers are so volatile it’s easier to find breakouts amongst them, or perhaps some other reason.
good question
Good question. I know I enjoy analyzing pitchers more than hitters, and I have a much easier time gauging a pitcher “by eye” than I do a hitter….I can’t judge hitting mechanics very well.
by John Sickels on Jun 24, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
John,
regarding Hudson, I’ve heard that his fastball has been sitting a bit higher than the 89-93 MPH you mentioned in your book – can you confirm?
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
Carter or Hudson? Or both?
I’m a little confused.
by The Big Hurt on Jun 25, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Hoover
The hits allowed also are a reflection partially upon Rome’s poor defense. Hoover is a moderate GB pitcher and their infield defense is simply bad.
My biggest concern has been the number of HRs he’s given up, especially playing in Rome which is a big park. But overall, I’d say he’s been a helluva steal for a guy that got drafted in the 10th round.
I’m certainly biased, but does anyone draft better Day 2 than the Braves?
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Rays sure did well this year. Mayo seemed to like the Rays and Pirates day 2 more then anyone else judging off the broadcast (not sure if he later wrote something indicating another team). Dodgers/Red Sox generally seem to do well finding talent and getting them signed. As a Braves fan though, I agree they generally do very well. Hopefully they find some guys from this year’s draft but I was pretty confused when I saw it.
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