The importance of missing bats

by DJSlam on Jun 23, 2009 10:33 AM EDT

I was thinking about this last night, wondering if there was any direct correlation between how many swings and misses a pitcher generates per start, and the success that the pitcher has? Is there actually anywhere to go that lists these stats? On the surface, it would seem that most elite pitchers K alot of guys because after all, putting a ball in play has a chance to be a hit when a K doesn't. But also, usually pitchers who K alot of guys have the best stuff .

So if anyone could shed some light into this I would be grateful, and even provide some stats because I haven't been able to find any. Thanks.

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Yes

There is a good correlation between swinging strike rate and strikeout rate and almost no correlation between called strike rate and strikeout rate. And pitchers with higher swinging strikeout rates are almost always more successfull than those with lower ones. Of course BB% and GB% are good to look at as well.

by Fett42 on Jun 23, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions

contact %

The contact % stats at Fangraphs tell you the percentage of batter’s swings that made contact against a pitcher, which should essentially give you the data that you’re looking for.

by jibs on Jun 23, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions

fangraphs

The top 10 in lowest contact rate within the strike zone:

Max Scherzer
Cole Hamels
John Danks
Johan Santana
Javier Vazquez
Justin Verlander
Scott Baker
Roy Oswalt
Jake Peavy
C.C. Sabathia

And the 10 with the highest contact rate:

Jamie Moyer
Vicente Padilla
Bronson Arroyo
Joel Pineiro
Scott Feldman
Joe Blanton
Armando Galarraga
Andy Pettitte
Shairon Martis
Brad Bergesen

That’s quick and dirty, of course, and it only measures one number, but it certainly passes the sniff test.

by whichthat on Jun 23, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, there is a strong correlation between strikeouts and success

and further, there is a strong relation between velocity and strikeouts. I know this seems extremely logical and obvious, but trust me… it is not obvious to everyone.

Bill James has written famously on the subject on Ks and success. He was one of the first to notice that above average K rates in young pitchers have a strong correlation with longer careers.

fangraphs.com had a very interesting set of articles exploring the correlation between velocity and K’s a couple months back.

by alskor on Jun 23, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions