Falling Stars: What to make of Brian Dopirak

by RedSoxFaithful on Jun 21, 2009 6:05 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

Once upon a time, the Chicago Cubs drafted a powerful first baseman, with a 2nd round draft pick, who promptly went to single-A Lansing and had a crazy-good season. The first baseman was lauded from every direction for his efforts, and was named the best prospect in Chicago's system, as well as the 21st best prospect in baseball, by one of the most reputable sources around.

It was what happened next, though, that was the most surprising twist of them all: Brian Dopirak fell off a figurative cliff. He posted an OPS of .670 at high-A in 2005, and fell victim to injuries in 2006 and 2007. By the time Dopirak would post another healthy season, it would be 2008, in his second organization, at the age of 24, and yet only in high-A.

Of course, most of you probably already knew all of this, so where am I going with it? Well, Dopirak is now 25, and has finally made the all-important jump to AA (which he is mastering quickly). With a .946 OPS, and 16 home runs, he's definitely begging for a promotion to AAA. My question is this: Does it matter? At what point does age relative to league actually mean something?

Obviously, his power is slightly less impressive, because he's 25, but it's pretty clear that Dopirak does have real power, regardless of the age discrepancy. He's also walking a decent amount, in the 9-10% range (despite still striking out too much). Plus, it's not like this is him repeating the league- he only had about 300 scattered at-bats at AA before this season. I really think, if they challenged him, the Blue Jays could find themselves pleasantly surprised here. It's not like they really have much in the way at 1B, anyway (both at the MLB level and in the minors, aside from David Cooper).

What do you think? Can Dopirak still power himself into a major league lineup, or are we merely witnessing a one-time prospect's last stand?

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At what point does age relative to league actually mean something?

It ALWAYS means something. Just not always exactly what you think. I dont think it is even POSSIBLE to have that kind of season at age 20 in the MWL unless you have a lot of talent. Think about that if you can.

Also, just looking at his career numbers makes me think of injuries, which i believe has played a part in things.

I wouldnt get too excited but I think if given a shot he could hold his own as a platoon 1b/Ph. Of course there a lot of guys like him out there. Ib who can hit a little but not quite enough. You never know though. Say what you want about him but 39 dingers in the MWL and 16 in half a season in New Hampshire is POWER

by casejud on Jun 21, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well

I get annoyed when people throw this around casually, but I’ve heard from multiple trusted sources he was a very big steroid concern right out of school. Take that FWIW in the context of a power surge and subsequent injury issues.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Jun 21, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Age Relative to League

has plenty of problems with it when comparing college seniors to Latin American signings or High School draftees. Personally, I think looking at the number of years a player has been a professional is the best rule of thumb. A 16 year old international FA who has 7 years of instruction and development programs likely will learn a great deal less than a college senior who has just been drafted, but they are probably the same age. Joel Guzman, who is still only 23, will probably change less. Another example, Oswaldo Navarro, who has spent 4 seasons at AAA yet is only 24 (also has very similar numbers career wise to Jose Tabata), has improved very little later on in his career (he never had great tools but he projected as a MLB player).

by tdot mariner fan on Jun 22, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you think development is primarily learning through instruction

And not about physical development? Interesting.

by thejd44 on Jun 22, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball is very skill intensive in my belief

Athletic ability is very important too but I would say that most players fail to become an MLB player because of skill deficiencies rather than athletic ones. A good deal of players become AAAA players or busts because they lack one skill ex. proper pitch recognition, contact skills, improved change/3rd pitch etc…. That said, it is easier for position players to get by on pure athletic ability than pitchers. For professional pitchers, stuff and pitching approach are the major deciding factors in their success(both which are improved mostly through instruction and experience).

I should say instruction probably does also include proper physical training schedules which is significant for prep players and international FAs.

by tdot mariner fan on Jun 22, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On Dopirak

He fits so well into that steroid decline category but my gut tells me that either he or the Cubs messed with his swing mechanics. The easiest way to break a hitter’s production is to mess with his swing really, just ask Delmon Young(ignoring the pitch recognition problems).

by tdot mariner fan on Jun 22, 2009 1:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dopriak

This is what I think. AAAA, at best.

by rwperu34 on Jun 22, 2009 4:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the AAAA statement for now,

but he did lose two years of development time due to injury. I don’t think he’s a top prospect by any means, but if he has a chance and hits, he could be another Jack Cust kind of guy who just needed the opportunity to prove his worth. Frankly, there are several teams who could give this guy a try like the Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Giants, to name a few… It’s just a matter of finding the opportunity.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Jun 22, 2009 5:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d rank them:

Josh Phelps
Steven Pearce
Brian Dopirak

Three pretty similar players; I think Dopirak has the lower ceiling of the three.

by samjjones on Jun 22, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

really?

lower ceiling? I’d say Dopirak’s ceiling was the highest of the three, but that he also had a bigger bust factor. Keep in mind that, off of his huge low A season, the talk was that he’d be a stud … or a flameout. Much of this was expected with his all or nothing swing – in some respects, in response to another post, I’d say the Cubs probably didn’t tinker enough with his swing.

by toonsterwu on Jun 22, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ceilings

I agree Toonster. Don’t know enough to make judgment about the last sentence, do I’ll defer; but, Dopirak had a pretty high ceiling (justified by his high ranking) among the 3.

by killa on Jun 22, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Home Run Derby Champion of the 2011 Atlantic League All Star Game…..

by Grapeweasel on Jun 22, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nolan Reimold

Went through a somewhat similar situation with the injuries and ending up pretty old for the league. The big difference though is that Reimold never really fell of a cliff performancewise, actually hed been pretty consistent with his performances, just his development was slowed by injury. In AAA this year he was 25 I believe and finally got the call to the Bigs for the O’s. So far this year, even though Porcello and Andrus are the big named rookies, IMO Reimolds performance up to this point in only 100 AB’s trumps any rookies out there, yes even Porcello. Basically what I am saying is that its never too late……

by QBsIllest1 on Jun 22, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs