Mike Leake

by bl on Jun 19, 2009 11:20 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

Let me start by saying I am not a Cincinnati Reds fan nor am I am Texas University or an Arizona State University fan.

About a week and a half ago the Reds took Mike Leake with the 8th overall pick in the MLB rule IV draft. We all know who Leake is and how great of a season he had for ASU. He is probably the main reason why ASU is in Omaha. Which leads to this.......

On Tuesday Mike Leake started against Texas and lasted just 3.1 innings. I cannot find the pitch count, maybe 50 pitches? ASU was able to knock off UNC to get back to the bracket championship. Desparate to keep the season alive, ASU brings Leake back on two days rest to face Texas again. He lasted 6 innings and threw around 90 pitches, pitching a very nice game.

I have two problems with this-

#1 From a coaches point of view. You have to win two games, one without Leake. Why not use Leake on the extra day of rest if you need a win without him? The fact Leake pitched well is irrelevent here, I think a guy on three days rest is better than a guy on two days rest.

#2 This kid has millions of dollars waiting for him. Why risk his health? If something were to happen to him it would be a disaster and the Reds would have every right to be upset.

Maybe I am overreacting, but if my favorite team took Leake (I was really hoping he would fall but I cannot complain about Green) I would be very upset. IMO this is worse than what Texas did to Austin Wood because you know exactly what the kid has at stake with the draft complete.

I was wondering what others thought here.

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Rec-ed

This could be a very interesting discussion, one that I will probably contribute to tomorrow.

by RedSoxFaithful on Jun 20, 2009 12:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When you’re in an elimination game, the working theory is you play like there is no tomorrow. That means, if you have to burn through your best pitchers to ensure a win, you do it.. It’s the same approach Arkansas took the other night against Virginia. (Incidentally, what a weird and entertaining game that was.) It cost them today, but if they don’t leave it all on the field against a Virginia team, they don’t get to play today. As for the usage of Leake, it isn’t uncommon for college pitchers to go on two days rest. Granted, had he thrown over 100 pitches the other night, he wouldn’t have started tonight. Considering the limited pitch count from Tuesday, it’s almost a given a guy like Leake is going to pitch on two days rest. You’re right to be cautious, but once he establishes he is not grinding, he’s good to go. His mechanics were good, his stuff was crisp, and he’s a very athletic kid to begin with. Keep in mind, arms are much more durable at the college level, because of the youth of the pitchers, and they don’t exert themselves as much as a professional pitcher. I’ve seen college pitchers run pitch counts between 140-150.

by StickRat on Jun 20, 2009 2:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you on alot of this

that Leake going on 2 days once or twice isn’t too bad and that a pitcher needs to come through for his team when they need him but the elimination game part of your argument is completely bunk.

Arizona State had elimination GAMES. One win gets them nowhere. You need to give your team the best odds of winning both games.
Seth Blair (who has been great this year and is a great arm!) and Jason Frazblau are going to have to combine to cover the first 6-8 innings of ONE of those two games. Since both are 100% fresh why not throw them today and give Leake one more day of rest.

Starting Blair/Franzblau first and, had they won, starting Leake in the rematch would have given Arizona State the best odds of landing in the championship round

by nms on Jun 20, 2009 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree. If you need one win, go ahead and use Leake. ASU was in a situation where they needed two wins.

by bl on Jun 20, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Not only did they have to win 2 straight against Texas, but Leake had last pitched against Texas. Their hitters had seen him and smoked him for 6 runs in one inning. Wouldn’t it have been better to pitch somebody new against their hitters, then have Leake come back today (Saturday) if they won Friday night just to reduce the comfort level of the UT hitters?

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jun 20, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the win at all cost theory. I guess I am just being more conservative.

My question is this. Who would have gone had ASU won today? Either way ASU needed two wins. Were they better off using the game 2 starter tonight and Leake in the (if) game on an extra day of rest? IMO because Leake has millions of dollars waiting for him I think they were better off trying to win the one without him in a matter than also protects him.

by bl on Jun 20, 2009 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the usage...

I see it as a team being down 3-2 in a Best Of Seven series. You can’t worry about Game 7, you have to worry about Game 6. Without Game 6 there is no Game 7. Both UNC and ASU were in a must win game the other night, one of them was going to be eliminated. ASU did all they could to make sure it wasn’t them, and it worked.

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Jun 20, 2009 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even when you're down 3-2

You still have to win two games. Game 7 may not matter if you don’t win Game 6, but Game 6 doesn’t matter if you don’t win Game 7. Both games are equally important. By using your ace on short rest, not only are you not able to use your ace in Game 7, but you use a pitcher that may not be at his most effective.

There are other points I guess could be made, though. Maybe the team has more confidence in a game tied 3-3 than down 3-2, so it will be like a springboard thing.

In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.

"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.

"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.

"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG

by mateodh on Jun 20, 2009 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At the moment...

Game 7 doesn’t matter. It does not exist unless you win Game 6, so saving your best pitcher for Game 7 when you need to win Game 6 first is foolish. You have to keep hope alive. I would rather lose in a Game 7 and have had that hope of moving on for an extra two days than to have lost in Game 6 and never even had the chance. Anything can happen between Game 6 and 7. You stay alive as long as you can. It may be cliche, but you have to take it one game at a time. Plus, their manager has to win games like John said. He now has an extra win on his portfolio in the CWS.

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Jun 20, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I assure you

Pat Murphy cares not one cent about one extra win in Omaha. He has plenty. I assure you the Arizona State players and program care not one cent about one extra win in Omaha. They have dozens.
Maybe if you are Louisville, Southern Miss, Southwest Missouri State, Maine, ect the difference between a 1-2 and 2-2 run in Omaha is worth something. To North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Arizona State, Stanford, ect once you get to Omaha all that matters is the championship. Maybe getting to the final 2 and avoiding being 2-n-Q is worth a little but no big-time program cares about 1-2 vs. 2-2

And Game 7 matters just as much as Game 6. Two wins. THAT is all that matters.

It would be one thing if starting Leake on 2 days rest would have allowed them to bring someone else back early in todays wouldve-been game but it WOULDNT HAVE. The same 2 pitchers (Franzblau/Blair) would have had to make a start in one of those 2 games. Why not wait to deploy your big gun (Leake) til he is a lil more ready?

by nms on Jun 20, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teams who look forward to Game 7...

rarely win Game 6. When you have two games to win, they are not of equal importance at the time. The first game is more important since there is no second game without the first.

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Jun 22, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's that kind of mentality

That I’m sure motivated him to start Leake in that Game, and it worked out well. But now it’s Game 7, and you’re hoping to squeeze a win out of a lesser starting pitcher. Just like you could have last night, and if you had, you feel great about Leake on more rest possibly dominating. Keeping hope alive? How about “all we have to do is win this game, we’ve got one of the best pitchers in the country going next, we owe it to him to let him be at full strength and give it all he’s got.” That’s hope.

It’s like the argument about “win now” teams selling all their prospects. Yes, you want to win now, future seasons don’t matter, but if you had thought about the future five years ago, you might be in a much better situation right now. A good coach does whatever it takes to win a game. A better coach can step back, see the big picture, play the odds and trust his players to get the job done in situations that are more favorable to them.

"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.

"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.

"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG

by mateodh on Jun 20, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that kind of logic

lead to Ohio State getting crushed 36-7 at FSU to wrap up their regional.

They burned their minimal pitching depth to shreds putting out Georgia (their ace getting demolished in Game 1 didn’t help) but put out Georgia they did but then when it came to the only thing that mattered, winning the regional, they couldn’t even pretend to actually play that last game since they had no arms left and FSU whupped ’em like it was a BCS title game (oooh football burn!)

by nms on Jun 20, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

usage

The job of a college coach is to win games for his team. Player development is also important, but is a secondary consideration…and especially in the post-season.

It makes scouts and pro people wince in certain circumstances….but in the case of Leake I think it is understandable and not something I would criticize AZ State about.

A different question would be excessive usage over the course of a full season, or programs which have a high rate of injuries over a long period of time. Matt Torra, for example, was burned out by UMass in 2005. A.J. Morris threw an awfully large number of pitches this year. Rice pitchers have a very poor injury track record.

by John Sickels on Jun 20, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this

my problem with the move was that this move actually HURT Arizona State’s chances to win games.

by nms on Jun 20, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, it didn't

they didn’t really have anybody else available to pitch. Leake on short rest is better than the rest of their pitchers on short rest.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jun 20, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BULLCRAP

Firstly, if they have “no one” to pitch like you said that doesn’t change the fact that those “no ones” would have to pitch one of those 2 games… so why not have your best pitcher as fresh as possible for the one game he will have to pitch.

Second of all.. do you know anything at ALL about Arizona State? I don’t mean to sound like a jerk but I can not think of a single more silly, false comment. I mean, where did you get that they had “no one” beyond Spence/Leake?
Seth Blair went 7-1 with 3-ERA in over 70 IP as a sophomore this year for them while averaging over 9K per 9. And he was a top 100 or 200 draft prospect out of HS so it isn’t as if he is a junk baller. He has the stuff to get out top hitters and HAS gotten top hitters out all year. He faced just 3 batters in the June 16 game, and (other than that) had not pitched since May 31.
Pretty darn fresh.

Franzblau (2.32 ERA and 44/15 K/BB in 50 IP) faced 6 or 7 batters in the June 16 and otherwise didn’t pitch much since regionals. He was also an all-american in 2007, and he is a senior who has started a few NCAA tournament games in the past… so, again, he isn’t some flake. He is a legit pitcher who had another really good year and was pretty fresh.

You’re telling me those two very good arms couldn’t maybe combine for 6-8 innings and let Lambson and Swagerty finish things?

Lambson, maybe wearing down a little after a year of clutch long relief, of course wound up losing the game after a good Leake outing but that doesn’t mean starting Leake yesterday instead of in the would-be game today was the right call.

by nms on Jun 20, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude I went to ASU

I know plenty about them. If you know anything about college ball you know that a coach isn’t going to pitch is 3rd or 4th best pitcher when his ace is “available”

There’s no way that pitching Leake actually HURT their chances of winning. That’s just ridiculous.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jun 20, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was on 2 days of rest

During the broadcast the announcers also said he was battling some tendonitis in his elbow (and shortening his follow through because of it). He had no business starting Leake in that game, and the Reds should be pissed.

Of course, I’m sure Dusty Baker would have done the same thing.

by jar75 on Jun 21, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying it was a good thing

I’m saying it didn’t actually hurt their chances of winning. The result of the game proves that.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jun 21, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It hurt their chances of going through to the finals

That’s what NMS was saying.

If it increases your chances of winning game 6 by 10%, but hurts your chances of winning game 7 by 20%, it’s a stupid move.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Jun 22, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

Game 6 is more important than Game 7 just because if you don’t win 6 you can’t play in 7.

If you’re a coach, you have to give yourself your best shot at winning the next game. If I’m a coach I’d feel sick if I didn’t pitch my best pitcher in an elimination game (ignoring the whole short rest thing because clearly that’s not a consideration in college baseball).

Besides, your percentages are completely arbitrary.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jun 23, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth

it’s University of Texas, not Texas University. “TU” is what intrastate rival Texas A&M calls them to try to get under their skin.

Arlington, TX: home of The Blue Blur

by Brett Perryman on Jun 20, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Another name

I thought they called them DEFEATED!!!

by Slamdog on Jun 29, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Living in Omaha

I am a regular at the CWS and this thing happens alot one way or another. Either the pitcher starts on two days rest or he comes on in relief, regardless he was going to pitch with it being an elimination game.

by tj.hendricks on Jun 21, 2009 2:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs