if they take that kind of attitude with Strasburg.

I stopped reading after the 4th sentence. David Price has made four (4) major league starts this year. He has had control issues for sure, but he also has a K/9 of 12.32. To condemn him after 4 inefficient outings is ridiculous.

Frankly, they should pay him what they want. The jersey sales and the attention the team will get strikes me as similar to paying the 50M bonus fee the Sox did to negotiate with Daisuke. I realize we’re not looking at a different country here, but a Strasburg start could legitimately put 5000-10000 more people in the stands than they are currently getting. It won’t take much of that before he’s looking like a bargain.

You keep mentioning it without defining what breaking the bank would be. As of right now, I don’t think anyone expects Strasburg to get the 50 million that’s been floated around. Around 20-25 million is probably more likely.

Is that too much? Well, I could delve into the messy side tangent of athletes are being paid too much anyways. Leaving all that aside, if it’s 25 million or less, yes, the Nationals should pay. First off, it isn’t only Boras hyping up Strasburg. Whether or not Strasburg pans out, only time will tell, but almost EVERYONE has been hyping up Strasburg.

a) Much as you propose that Strasburg would take a PR hit, so would the Nationals. This is a team that, due to the Lerner’s actions, has been viewed as cheap and dysfunctional. There is already low interest in the area – the little energy that the Strasburg pick brought is needed badly. The Storen pick was viewed as a signability pick. The team will have money clearing off the books in the next few years.

b) As lemonjello notes, this would impact the Bryce Harper negotiations. Lost amidst the idea of taking a pick next year is that it stands quite likely that Strasburg and Harper would be 1 and 2 next year. Harper would have much more leverage, pinning the Nationals in a corner for a variety of reasons but partly because the Nationals can’t keep rolling over picks.

c) A small reason, but If Strasburg is as good as anticipated, then Strasburg, Zimmerman, Detwiler gives them a very intriguing pitching trio, and they can find back of the rotation options. Short of it is, this team could turnover and be competitive much sooner than people anticipate (look, I’m not saying 2010, I’m thinking more 2012 to be competitive), and with the money freeing up, they can look to retool the lineup. For the franchise to survive, they need to get better quicker, and the Strasburg move (to pay him in the 20-25 mil range) would be very much in the same vein as the Meche move in FA for KC a few years ago, a “We’re in the game” move. Forget precedent and what not – the Nationals are teetering closer to the edge than most are probably willing to acknowledge. There is very little general interest in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, and I can easily see a scenario where things go from bad to horrible if they can’t spark some signs of life.

Make no mistake about it, but the Nationals need the Strasburg signing as much as Strasburg needs to sign this year to prevent the risk from not pitching a year. My guess? Kasten and Boras will play hardball, with Kasten perhaps starting with slot and Boras at a ridiculous number. They’ll work their way down and eventually be somewhere in that 18-25 mil.888888

If I could get more money from my job, I would. Does that make me greedy? Possibly. Would this instance of greed be looked down upon? I should hope not.

How is Strasburg any different than you or I in looking for the most money he can? This is ignoring utility from your work, since I’m assuming you’d have the same employer and situation, just a different wage.

Justification: Strasburg has a wide range of outcomes, ranging anywhere from 6 WAR (persistent Cy Young candidate) to 0 WAR (flameout due to injury or ineffectiveness). Most likely scenario appears to be that he becomes a very good pitcher, but let’s offer a range of scenarios:

Ace— 35 WAR (10%)

1. starter— 30 WAR (10%)
2. starter— 20 WAR (20%)
3. starter— 15 WAR (20%)
   Disappointment— 10 WAR (10%)
   Injury— 0 WAR (20%)
   Flameout— 0 WAR (10%)

Postulate: One WAR is worth about $4M in today’s market.

Postulate: Over the course of a player’s pre-free agent career, his expected salary is approximately the same as he would receive in two seasons as a free agent.

Justification: He makes almost no money until his arbitration years, then is paid approximately 40% of free agent wages in his first year, 60% in his second year and 80% in his third year of arbitration.

Therefore: Each of the numbers above should be adjusted down by about 30% to account for salaries he’ll receive.

Ace: 24.5 Value Added Wins (VAW)

1. Starter: 21 VAW
2. Starter: 14 VAW
3. Starter: 10.5 VAW
   Disappointment: 7 VAW
   Flameout/Injury: 0 VAW

Conclusion: Steven Strasburg has a current average value of somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 Value Added Wins, or $40,000,000. Because the draft system limits the leverage of a minor leaguer, the Nationals should expect to turn a significant profit on the transaction. A signing bonus of $20-30M is in the “reasonable” range.

Not the same thing. I’m not an expert on MLB collective bargaining, but I consider myself an informed fan.

Signing bonus is upfront money paid soon after the signing is officially recognized. If a drafted player signs a standard minor league contract—as 99% of them do—the entire bonus is payable up front. If a player signs a major league contract—Pedro Alvarez’s final one, for instance—the signing bonus can be spread (both in actual payout and for accounting purposes) out over a number of years.

Some examples:
Matt Wieters signed a minor league contract with a then-record $6m bonus. Thus he received the $6m upon signing in August 2007. He didn’t play for the Orioles farm system until the 2008 season during which he earned whatever (relatively) meager salary that Hi-A and AA players receive (probably in the neighborhood of $30,000). He continued to earn whatever minor leaguers earn during 2009 until the O’s called him up on 5/29. From that point forward he will collect the prorated portion of the major league minimum salary (~$400k). (fwiw, Buster Posey has the current record bonus of $6.2m)

Mark Prior signed a major league contract of 5 years $10.5m, a record which stands until Strasburg signs. It included a $4m signing bonus and base salaries of
$250k,
$650k,
$1.6m,
$2m,
$2m.
(with escalators and incentives based on performance)
Which means regardless of whether he was in the majors or minors he would collect those salaries. Ultimately he was called up in 2002 anyway, so it was mostly a moot point because $250k was about the major league minimum at the time. The benefit is that Prior was guaranteed to earn 3x more than the major league minimum beginning in his second year, and escalating from there. It meant that the team could not jerk him around and simply renew his contract like they do with many pre-arbitration players.
To be fair, some contracts include specific clauses for (lesser) minor league salaries—see david price. My guess is Strasburg’s won’t.

My point is simply that included in the final number of a major league contract are many millions of dollars that the player was likely to be paid anyway.

Which bring us to Strasburg. Let’s assume the Strasburg contract is in the $25m neighborhood. This will be a 5 or 6 year deal, and include a bonus somewhere around $6-10m. So the salaries will look something like:

2010: $500k
2011: $1m
2012: $3m
2013: $5m
2014: $7m
(i’ve assumed he doesn’t sign until the deadline thus begins his career in 2010)

This structure is hardly preposterous. It’s certainly unprecedented since it blows Prior’s contract out of the water, but again hardly preposterous. To me, all the team needs to do to protect itself is to include a clause that prevents Strasburg from opting out of the contract for arbitration. Since the team is taking a huge risk by giving a record contract, it should not then also be on the hook for a Ryan Howard-like arbitration award beginning in year 3. Put differently, the team should be able to reap the benefits of its risky investment in the form of relatively modest base salaries if Strasburg turns into a top-level pitcher.

At Bor-ass.