What's wrong with Travis Snider?

by joltinjoe on Jun 14, 2009 2:43 PM EDT Comment 30 comments

So I got swept up in the hype and jumped aboard the Travis Snider train to start this season. After a decent start, he suddenly forgot how to hit a baseball and promptly got sent down to the minors. After posting a .686 OPS in the majors, he's managed to do worse in AAA (granted it's only eight games but a .614 OPS is just stupid). Not only is he hitting in Las freaking Vegas, he's in the PCL. He isn't hitting for average or for power and has a 9-35 bb-k ratio this season between the two levels. So what's going on with him? Is he hurt? Did the Blue Jays rush him? Is he just not that good?

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he's 21. shit like this happens.

human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

by variablesdont on Jun 14, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Adjusting to the major leagues is hard. It sometimes take a year or even two (and sometimes even more!) for a guy to adjust and adapt his game. The vast majority of guys arent ready to be reliable producers right out of the minors. Its not a reflection on talent, ceiling or anything else, either.

by alskor on Jun 14, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

people are spoiled by the few guys that make names for themselves immediately.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jun 14, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't this (which I agree with completely, BTW) the exact reason why pushing a guy who is 20-22 is a really dumb move?

Why waste his pre-arby years on major league struggles that will likely be lessened by simply playing him in AAA until he’s actually ready for the majors? It just bugs me when teams do this, and then right when they start to perform well, they’re heading out the door.

Everybody loves a 21 year old phenom, but I have no problem waiting until he’s 23 and actually ready to be good at baseball in the majors.

by thejd44 on Jun 14, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Players struggle when they reach the majors more times than not, regardless of how fast the did or didn’t get there. He’s been able to demonstrate some that he could handle it. He also has a history of starting slow in his new league and being able to adjust. Way too soon to declare mis-management.

by slurve on Jun 14, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

The vast majority of guys arent ready to be reliable producers right out of the minors. Its not a reflection on talent, ceiling or anything else, either.

I agree.

by aCone419 on Jun 14, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

People who talk about phenoms in any sport, would be well served in going back and looking at the first season for many of these players. Griffey put up a .748 OPS his first season in the majors. ARod had a .672 OPS in 142 AB in ’95. Chase Utley had a .696 OPS in 150 PA in his first taste of the majors. A rough first go is hardly indicative of the future if the tools are there and the player makes adjustments.

Remember, Snider was also posting the lowest K% of his career when he was sent down. He’ll be fine.

by Ophidian on Jun 15, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well at the moment

He’s on the minor league DL, has been there for 2 weeks now. Anyone know what his injury is?

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Jun 14, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

here it is

Snider has been out of the lineup at Triple-A Las Vegas since May 31 because of a back injury, the National Post reports.
Spin:
General manager J.P. Ricciardi said that the injury is the result of a stress fracture that Snider has had since childhood. There’s no timetable for his return right now, but he wasn’t hitting for power prior to getting sent down and there’s no need to rush him back to the big leagues at age 21.
[Recent News] RotoWire.com
Wed, Jun 10

by smoooooth on Jun 14, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'll never be half as good as the hype

He’s gonna struggle to keep his OBP at 350 in the bigs and his power isn’t enough to offset that and turn him into a high-ceiling guy. He’ll be useful in the bigs, but he’s not in the same class as Lind.

by realitypolice on Jun 14, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why?

by aCone419 on Jun 15, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

he’s not in the same class as Adam Lind – he’s in a higher class as a propsect than Lind ever was and he made it to the bigs 2 years faster. When Lind was Snider’s age he was still in A ball.

by slurve on Jun 15, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

MUCH higher

by alskor on Jun 15, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, its hilarious

that Adam Lind, who finally broke out after struggling mightily when exposed to the majors so much so that he almost fell off the team’s radar, is being used as an example of a better player than one of the top prospects in the game who struggled in May of his rookie year.

by alskor on Jun 15, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course Lind was at a lower level at the same age… he came out of college.
Unless Snider remakes his swing, that rigid front leg and early commit is gonna make it almost impossible for him to ever own the inner half in the majors. And if he can’t do that, the rest of his game isn’t enough for him to be more than a useful big leaguer. (I wasn’t a fan when I was watching him tear apart the EL last year, so my evaluation has nothing to do with the numbers he put up this spring.)

by realitypolice on Jun 15, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that the point?

Lind was basically left for dead. He has been able to make adjustments/improve. Snider has more raw talent than Lind ever had. There have been plenty of players with flaws in their game that have either succeeded by correcting the flaw and/or thriving in spite of it. Gary Sheffield is one that comes to my mind immediately.

by slurve on Jun 15, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Power" and "raw talent" aren't synonyms

And Snider only has more of the first.

by realitypolice on Jun 16, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Every scouting report Ive ever read

raved about what a great natural hitter he is.

by alskor on Jun 16, 2009 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

i think the reality police have lost with it.

by slurve on Jun 16, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OMG!

How could a guy who couldn’t even dominate the majors at 21 EVER learn how to make adjustments at the plate?

Maybe if the Jays roomed him with Adam Lind, there’d be a chance.

by PissedMick on Jun 15, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Snider

I made several comments during the off-season that i thought he ws being overrated due to the limited AAA and majors lines. I looked mostly to his AA line and figured he would struggle to reach .300 oba and .400 slgging this year. That said, i think he will improve, but although i thought it might be a blind spot, i didn’t get the raves.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/10/19/638273/top-50-prospects-end-of-20#9485774

by wobatus on Jun 16, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

The comments were in that thread, towards the bottom:

Snider "There’s a great chance of him breaking camp wiith the Jays in 2009…"

Then there’s a great chance he’ll bat about .220 and struggle to get his ob and slugging to .300 and .400. I am just not sold on him yet, even if he is only 20.

by wobatus on Oct 20, 2008 1:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course, he’s batting .242 and it’s early. But I thought he might strugle out of the gate and get sent back down.

by wobatus on Jun 16, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait

John ranked Lind ahead of Snider before the 2007 season. Admittedly, Snider was very young then.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/12/9/185048/874

I think Snider will obviously get better, but Lind had a HUGE year in 2006 in the minors. He wOBA’s .397 and .472 in AA and AAA. Snider was .366 and .399 at 20. You don’t know what Lind would have done at 20. Sure, Snider may have more upside because of the age, and you certainly don’t give up on him, but i did think he would struggle this year. Thought he was getting a little too much play. he’ll pick it up.

Lind is at .929 ops in the majors. Homered today again. He is almost 25. We’ll see where Travis Snider is in 4 years. Maybe much better than this. But if he is just that he’ll be good.

by wobatus on Jun 18, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, but Snider was, going into 2009, considered a top 10 prospect

and one of the best hitting prospects in the game.

Lind never reached anywhere near that high on any list. What’s the highest he reached? 39 on BA in 07 (& Snider was 53 that year, too). The next year BA had Snider 11th.

by alskor on Jun 18, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought

Snider was a tad overrated. Yeah, he is higher ranked than Lind ever was. John had Lind as the number 14 hitter coming into 2007 season. That was just 2 years ago. he had a monster 2006, and is now stinging the ball. I don’t think outlandish to think Snider may not get to be as good as Lind. Lind has to keep it up and Snider would have to disappoint. I guess Snideer was ranked higher, maybe MUCH higher, but that to me implied Lind was like a B+ kinda guy. He was better than that.

by wobatus on Jun 18, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

if it makes you feel any better....

Look at Adam Lind. Took him a bit but he was a highly touted prospect and he’s just fine. Snider will be fine, if you have a chance to buy low in a keeper or dynasty league, i’d do so certainly. People worry too much about stuff like this. The guy started on opening day at a very young age in the big leagues. He has a lot of talent, give him some time.

by loop on Jun 15, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Should I hold onto him?

I have him in a 20 team keeper league where we keep 10 players. I also have Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Colby Rasmus. Keeping a fourth OF doesn’t seem to make much sense (no DH). Right now he’s just burning a spot on my bench and I have a fairly valuable player sitting on my DL who’s not hurt anymore. Should I drop Snider?

by joltinjoe on Jun 15, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure...

If you have no idea what you are doing thats a great move. He’s 21, was the ROY favorite coming in to the season and has a huge upside. Even if hes not a keeper for you I would hold on to him and try to flip him to a bad team for an upgrade at a week position.

by ADLC on Jun 16, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs