I am doodling around with a Reds Mock Draft Part 2 and a draft sleepers post and was going to mention Mike Leake so heavily I decided to give him a separate entry.

He isn't a sleeper in that he is an under-the-radar guy.  He was a high pick out of HS who is now the best pitcher for one of the country's best (and most visible) teams.  He is arguably the best amateur pitcher, as far as current ability and performance, not named Strasburg.

He is a sleeper because everyone seems to agree he is really good but no one quite want to go out on a limb with a small RHP whose velo is more good than great

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I am usually someone who likes to see big stuff out of first round pitchers.  I feel that, as often as not, the polished college arms that people feel are "safe bets" are actually less safe than the "risky" 95 MPH fastball guys who can' throw a changeup because many of these "safe bet" guys won't have the stuff to get good hitters out where as many of the "risky" first round types might never been good starting pitchers but at least are not too far from being decent relief pitchers.

All that philosophy out of the way.. I love Mike Leake.  I really feel that in a few years he is going to be the guy that we look back on and say, "How did so many teams pass on him?" and the answer is going to be "Well, everyone knew he was going to be a good pitcher but ... (insert excuse here)".

I once saw an HS scouting report on Greg Maddux that said "I feel that if this young man were just a little more physical and threw a little harder we would be talking about him as one of the first picks in this draft".  Maddux fell to the second round but is now just 5 years away from becoming a HoFer.

I am NOT one of those people who is comparing him to Maddux.  I HATE that crap.  Kind of how every changeup reliant LHP in the last decade has been "the new Tom Glavine" when most were really just Kirk Reuter (don't get me wrong, I love Kirk Reuter) or Abe Alvarez.

My whole point here is that Mike Leake is going to be underdrafted.  He is going to be one of those players who every one agrees is pretty good, but several teams are going to try to make a little more sexier pick and they are going to ignore the guy that is going to be a rotation rock.

Leake doesn't throw 96 but he DOES have good stuff, he is not a soft-tosser.  You don't get taken in the 7th round out of HS unless you have at least SOME tools and projection.  He isn't going to struggle to get the ball by good hittters.

Leake is athletic.  He has played a variety of IF positions for the Sun Devils and team USA.  If he was not a great pitcher he would be a legit prospect at SS, 2b or 3b.  He played 2b for Team USA this summer and was really, really nimble.  He hit .236 with a homer for them (decent numbers considering it was with wood).  He hit .340 in 47 ABs with a .500(!) OBP and 6 extra-base hits including 2 homers as a sophomore for ASU.  He was 10-30 (.303 avg) for ASU this spring with half of those hits going for extra bases.

Leake is accomplished.  The down side to this is he has a lot of milage on the arm, which is a legitimate concern but I am just sucker for a with a big track record.  Leake has been an ace, a guy his team relies on, since Day 1 of his freshman year.  If his career ended today he would finish with a career 39-6 record, about 375 innings and around 340 strikeouts in just three years plus a sub-1 ERA run for Team USA.  And Arizona State usually plays a good out-of-conference sced plus the Pac-10 plus they are always in the postseason (which means more good teams).

He throws strikes and has command as well as control.  He has good stuff, even if he is more low-90s than anything.  He can throw multiple pitches and throw them well, and for strikes.  He has pitched excellently against the best non-pro hitters around.  He is athletic.

Barring injury I just keep being struck with the inescapable gut feeling that he is a going to be a 200 IP stud at the MLB level, despite his size and relative lack of velo