Top 100 additions/subtractions
by NYSOX on May 6, 2009 9:41 PM EDT
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PrintI am interested in who some of the players are that members of the board feel have taken themselves out of Top 100 prospect consideration with there play and some that have put themselves in contention for Top 100 slots by there play. I am well aware that its only 25 games in and some guys such as Michael Burgess have alotta time to turn it around. I have a few that have impressed me so far...such as Devaris Gordon and Jeff Locke...who are some others ??
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Todd Frazier
For me has freefallen by moving to LF and not hitting. It depends where you had him to start, but for me it was around the 80’s and I don’t think he’s a top 100 guy anymore.
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Dominic Brown and Brett Lawrie
Not sure where they were to start but should def. be in the top 100 (maybe top 50) by years end if the production continues.
If they continue to hit like this
Then top-50 might be conservative
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by OldProspects on May 7, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
A few guys with varying degrees of helium in the early going
Kyle Drabek, Chris Withrow, Thomas Neal, Casey Crosby, Tony Delmonico, Ryan Kalish, Trevor Harden, Isaac Galloway, Ross Seaton, Joe Benson, Jordan Danks, Zeke Spruill
Just an impression, but considering that the Braves push exceptionally few pitchers to full-season ball straight out of high school, they must REALLY love Spruill.
The Marlins usually have a good eye for prep players and Galloway is ultra-toolsy with very respectable performance. I expect some pretty solid scouting buzz to build around the guy as the year goes on.
Tony Delmonico, at the rate he’s going, is going to be all the rage by mid-summer.
Guys who are falling? Not out of the top 100, but early returns on Matt Dominguez outside of Greensboro are not looking too good so far. Neftali Feliz is dropping a little but he was really overrated to begin with. Yonder Alonso is doing okay but frankly I’m a bit surprised he isn’t just annihilating the FSL. Check back in a couple of months I guess. Totally out of the top 100 . . .Aumont I’d imagine. Brad Holt was on BA’s top 100 and can’t see him there now. Kyle Skipworth is having some issues and there’s plenty of hope but was rushed perhaps.
Forgot one guy in the dropping category
Michael Main on Texas. Another guy who was really overrated by some, although I’ll admit I’m biased. I’ve always seen him as a future closer type, not an ace starter.
Crosby
Still has some control issues, but his arm is electric . I could see him on the back end of a top 100 list.
I guess
I’m kind of curious to see how that develops over the year. We’re talking about such small sample sizes that it seems ridiculous to cut into them any further, but in one game Crosby walked 6 people in 3.1 IP. If you take that game out, he’s only walked 7 people in 18 IP, which isn’t a terrible ratio at all. That obviously isn’t a proof of anything, but it’s possible his control isn’t as off as it seems
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by OldProspects on May 7, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
my picks
SUBTRACTION
*Milwaukee C Angel Salome
*Cincy IF Neftali Soto….doing poorly in high-A even though some said he could start the season in AA
*New York Mets’ SP Brad Holt…have yet to see him in person though i hope to get to jupiter soon….guessing he has yet to develop any secondary stuff. the move to the ‘pen may be inevitable if all he can show is that fastball
*Florida C Kyle Skipworth…though it’s still early
ADD
*LAD SP Ethan Martin. if he wasn’t in your top 100, then he should’ve been. did anyone really think that a minor injury was gonna get in this guy’s way. this HS kid could fly through the system. grab him if you can
*Minnesota RP Anthony Slama…i usually don’t sign relievers but i salivated when i saw his K/IP ratio…and of course by the time i found room for him someone else had picked him up minutes before me…..13K/9…that’s sick
*Minnesota SP Carlos Gutierrez……some said he was an overpick….and yes, i know he’s a college guy pitching in the fsl and i shouldn’t get excited about those numbers…but he’s one of the best pitchers out there. it’s about time we started trusting the twins’ personnel decisions
*Washington C Derek Norris……..guy could hit 25-30 HRs this year
*Cleveland SP Kelvin De La Cruz…..though he’s been hurt of late
*Florida OF Isaac Galloway (putting it all together)
*Boston 1B Anthony Rizzo….absolutely raking for Greenville
*LAD SS Devaris Gordon….turning into a star….though he needs to improve his defense…i was shocked when a fellow owner cut him two weeks ago….SNAG THIS GUY
*toronto 2b brad emaus…polished college guy is raking..though he doesn’t seem to have much power
*new york mets’ c josh thole……..hitting for high BA but absolutely no power..my friend compared him to mike redmond
Holt
I think you have to give Holt a break here. He had a really bad first start where his control seemed to have abandoned him. Since then, he’s made four startss (interrupted by a minor injury) and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of them including a six inning, zero run performance in his latest start.
Currently, he’s struck out 25 batters in 24.2 innings and walked only 8, four of which came in his first start, 21 hits. I think he’s doing okay.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 7, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
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by OldProspects on May 7, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
But I’ve been a bit out of the loop and haven’t heard about his secondary stuff. Is he using it more? Is it improving?
Apparently last game he was showing good but inconsistent action with the changeup. Basically, he’s where he started the season: great fastball, good potentially plus pitches with the curve and change but he has consistent control of neither.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 7, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes and yes....
I’ve seen his two worst starts. That first one where he got bombed, he was throwing a lot of breaking balls, seemed to really be working on it, and struggled with his command some. Another start recently I saw a couple of decent change ups.
I’d say he has the potential to be a John Maine type. The secondary stuff could be average, and the fastball pretty good (90-94). I’m thinking likely more a #3 type SP than a top of rotation guy, but he’s looking pretty good. He should rank near Carlos Gutierrez, who is maybe a bit more polished now but with similar upside.
by acerimusdux on May 12, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Maine Comp
I would think that if he gets to the John Maine level he’d likely be a little more effective than Maine, simply by virtue of the fact that he tends to get more groundouts and isn’t quite the fly-ball machine Maine is.
Yeah his FB is different
He doesn’t throw the tailing FB with hop like Maine, but
.....
more late sink to it.
I’m not sure Holt’s is really better, though, as Maine’s can be very tough to hit with the late movement he gets, and Maine will get swings and misses on his up in the zone as well.
I really don’t think fly balls are a bad thing for a guy with a good fastball. The guys with the more marginal fastballs I’d worry about at higher levels if they are relying too much on fly outs.
Semi-agree
There are always mitigating factors. I mean, if the guy has a 10.00 K/9, it shouldn’t much matter how he’s getting his other outs. Even if he’s walking a million guys too, the difference between the higher BABIP for the groundball guy and the higher HR rate for the flyball guy should be negligible.
But if they’re not blowing everyone away, but have the peripherals to be fairy effective, the flyball guy is going to rely more on the size of his ballpark. The groundball guy won’t be effected much by his ballpark, but he’ll need a quality infield defense.
Maine is kind of unusual though, even for a flyball guy he keeps his BABIP extra low. Career mark around .270, so that really keeps his H/9 down. But, perhaps for similar reasons, he generates a ton of foul balls, so its hard for him to work deep into games.
The thing about groundballs, though, isn’t so much that groundball pitchers are harder to get hits off of. Its actually the contrary, groundball guys will usually give up more hits than flyball guys with similar contact rates. But its much harder to take extra bases on groundball hits, so overall, contact isn’t usually as dangerous. Plus you have double plays, and its much more infrequent to see a groundball guy have the foul ball problems Maine has, so they’re often able to work deeper into games.
I do think Holt has more upside than Maine. He has a more broad, physical frame, and assuming he doesn’t have to trash his curve at the higher levels like Maine did, seems to have more upside in his secondary repertoire. If he can do what Pelfrey didn’t and continue to miss bats at the higher levels, he’s going to be a very effective pitcher.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 12, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes....
I don’t think Holt FB is quite in Pelfrey’s class, I think he will need the secondary pitches a bit more. And on the FB/GB, I think the best guys are probably the guys that have the ability to do both, though that doesn’t always show in stats; if you can get the ground ball when you need it, you don’t need an extreme GB rate necessarily. One big advantage of the fastball having more sink though is usually less HR allowed, though that is also tough to judge from minor league stats, because you need a pretty good sample for HR rate to be meaningful. Holt for example has allowed 3 HR already, which isn’t good, but not really anything to worry about yet.
I do like including hit rates in the analysis for minor league pitchers. The guys with plus stuff at lower levels will often have a definite ability to impact BABIP vs. this level of competition.
On that note, there are currently 6 guys in the FSL with 20 IP and SO9> 8.5 and H9 <8.5:
Nick Carr
Brant Rustich
Kyle Drabek
Jenrry Mejia
Duane Below
Brad Holt
by acerimusdux on May 12, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not so sure about Holt's FB
not being in Pelf’s class. The thing about Holt was that his fastball didn’t really come around until his last year at UNC, so he never really developed the same level of hype. My unerstanding about Pelfrey was that he always had his, but once he got onto an every-fifth-day schedule, lost a bit on it. When he was first drafted, the reports were with he was touching 95+, which he lost fairly quickly in the pros.
Holt, on the other had, doesn’t seem to have been effected by the greater workload quite as much. The disadvantage he has is that Pelfrey has at least two or three inches on him, so he was able to get a much more natural downward plane.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 12, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
I don’t consider Rizzo’s line of 282/364/417 “absolutely raking”. If anything, for a 1B, you can say his power is underwhelming so far (at least on paper, not sure about scouting reports).
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Derek Norris
I’m not impressed. His line is pretty standard.
Still a project
He definitely requires some projection at this point.
Galloway.... putting what together?
A crappy season?
I’m not seeing eye to eye on some of these guys.
Huh?
.286/.325/.442 with 6/8 SBs is a damn good start for an ultra-toolsy 19 year old outfielder in full season ball.
Greensboro
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 12, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems odd to say it
But it seems like he was actually under-hyped coming into this year
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by OldProspects on May 7, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Nah
He’s in double-A, isn’t getting more than a K per inning and his GO/AO is under 1.00. I mean he’s promising to be roster filler, but not elite.
A 5.2 K/BB ratio in AA is roster filler?
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by OldProspects on May 8, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Add: Reese Havens
6 HR, 14 XBH, .927 OPS in the FSL as a SS. He’ll move to 2B eventually as he’s racking up the errors and the Mets don’t exactly need a SS, but still very impressive power output for a MI.
Also, keep an eye on the Mets other first rounder, Ike Davis. He’s not even close to Top 100 contention yet, but he’s finally started to flash some potential. Hasn’t flashed a ton of power yet, but he’s really come on finally in the last couple weeks. He didn’t draw any walks in his first couple weeks, but once he started walking, he started hitting. He’s at .300 / .391 / .441 right now with 11 XBH and he’s got a 7/9 K/BB in his last 10 games.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 7, 2009 1:54 AM EDT reply actions
Not as impressive...
when you realize he is only in HiA and is turning 23 in 5 months.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Which means he’s 22 in A+, he’ll likely be 23 in AA and, if he needs it, 24 in AAA. Those aren’t unacceptable age ranges.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 7, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
If I'm the Mets
I have my sights set on getting him into the EL around midseason, and I’m considering moving him to second base right then. Tejada shouldn’t be in the EL, but they’re not going to demote him, and once Havens gets to AA, he’s close enough where I think its time to have him start learning the position he’s more likely to end up at. And its not like Malo is a major roadblock or anything in Bingo.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 7, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't speak too soon...
Malo impressed a lot of the Mets brass with his spring training. They might not cast him aside that easily, to the detriment of Havens.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 7, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh
They already demoted Malo once. Jerry liked him in the spring, but I don’t think the organization is tied to him by any stretch.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 7, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Malo
Is the definition of an organizational player. He’s a good guy to have on the team, but his ceiling is that of a utility infielder.
Yeah, he's never hit at all
Very similar to Matt Bouchard, solid minor league bench guy, good defense, but not much hope for the bat. That’s a guy you move somewhere when an actual prospect is ready.
by acerimusdux on May 12, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
He's got a place
You do what you can to keep him in the organization, but he’s not blocking anybody. Ever.
Exactly
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 12, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions
?
turning 23 in 5 months.
What an odd thing to say. Just say 22, the age he will be for the entire season.
A seasonal age of 22 in high-A is perfectly acceptable for a college guy drafted last year. See: Yonder Alonso, Brian Matusz, Pedro Alvarez, Buster Posey, Jason Castro…
Especially
When you barely played the year before due to various small injuries.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 7, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And again
Dude’s leading the league in homers, tied for the league lead in walks, 5th in OPS, 2nd in XBH, and he’s a middle infielder. The other guys who are among the league leaders in those categories are all legitimate monster power bats at corner spots. Alonso, Montero (yeah I know he’s a catcher right now, but c’mon), Stanton, Brown, etc. He’s a first round pick and he’s producing big power in a tough league to do that in.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 7, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Mets additions/subtractions
I’ll put all my Mets comments here, just to have them in one place in the thread.
My current top 20:
B+ Fernando Martinez
B+ Jenrry Mejia
B Reese Havens
B Brad Holt
B- Wilmer Flores
B- Jon Niese
B- Brant Rustich
C+ Ike Davis
C+ Kirk Nieuwenhuis
C+ Francisco Pena
C+ Jeffry Marte
C+ Ruben Tejada
C+ Josh Thole
C+ Kyle Allen
C+ Scott Moviel
C+ Eddie Kunz
C+ Aderlin Rodriguez
C+ Dillon Gee
C+ Rob Carson
C+ Lucas Duda
Add: Jennry Mejia – his pure stuff, esp. when he has the slider working, is jaw dropping. The numbers are good as well, but he’s better than they show yet.
Add: Havens – the bat belongs, but doubts about his defense are enough to drop him to the bottom third of a top 100. The defensive tools are there, and he should get it with work, at least enough to play a solid 2B. I go back and forth on whether he’s before or after Holt right now.
No big change: Martinez – He ranked on average around 30 in the offseason, his strong start in AAA so far might even put him in the top 20.
No big change: Holt – I didn’t think he belonged in the top 100 in the off season, I thought he was too raw. His stock has definitely risen in my eyes, after seeing him. I think people are over reacting to a small sample, where his numbers are hurt by one start, the first of the season. Truth is he’s making good progress on both the slider and change up, and his numbers have been reasonably dominant since that first start. Maybe still not quite polished enough for top 100, but he belongs in the discussion.
maybe subtract: Flores – I don’t want to over react to a small sample, esp. for a young player with his tools and ceiling, but with a .583 OPS so far, I think you will get some debating whether he belongs in the top 100 at all.
Subtract: Niese – He was ranked a couple of places in the top 100, and has probably fallen since then due to a bad start. But, he hasn’t been as bad either as his 6.55 ERA in AAA, as it came with a 2.88 FIP, and only 55% LOB%. While there was some bad luck there, I think poor command of the fastball early on was also a factor, but he seems to have gotten back on track, including an impressive outing in his 4th career big league start. I’m thinking I had him maybe a bit over rated, arguing for him in the top 100, but I think he’s still close, maybe 110-130 range.
Keep an eye on: Brant Rusitch – If healthy, his combination of stuff, repertoire, command, and performance belongs in the top 100 discussion. Some doubts about his ability to stay healthy keep him out for me for now. Note the Mets seem to have handled him gingerly so far, working on a starters schedule, with 4-5 days rest between appearances, while working only 3-5 innings each time out. The results have been impressive, but I’ll wait and see how he holds up if his workload expands a bit as the season moves on.
Beyond that, I’ll comment on just a couple others. Alot of people have complained about Tejada being aggressively promoted, but he now has gotten on base for 18 straight games in AA, and has his OBP around .400. A plus defensive SS with a .400 OBP in AA at age 19 is liable to end up in the discussion if he keeps it up. But I still think his ceiling is lower than the guys I ranked ahead of him. Thole has an impressive bat, but it’s his defense which should keep him out of the top 100 discussion for now, and ultimately he’s not as good a catching prospect as Pena, who has the defense and power. Kyle Allen is an intriguing one to watch, as he had advanced secondary offerings for a HS pick. And, while he was in the high 80s in HS, some reports from Savannah have the fastball now in the low 90’s touching mid 90s, along with a plus changeup.
Can't really argue with any of that
I think my only differences:
1. Havens’ bat is awesome enough where he’s close to B+ for me.
2. Mejia has awesome stuff, but he might just be a bit too raw for me to feel comfortable giving him a B+. I tend to be conservative with young max-effort pitchers, but he’s definitely impressive.
3. I think I’d give Thole a B-. He may not have much power, and may still be a little raw defensively, but his bat and command of the zone seem super impressive to me. The fact that he’s still a recent convert makes me feel okay about giving him some benefit of the doubt defensively, especially since it doesn’t seem like his tools are below average or anything, he just needs refinement. But you gotta love the offensive potential of a catcher with a 12/14 K/BB.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 10, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
agree with most of what you both said
except with Havens:
I would go more B, I want to see what he can do in a higher level before giving him a B+/B, I think that is too generous for a 22 year old doing pretty well at A+ ball
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Yeah I can see it
But that power production is just crazy good for anyone in the FSL, regardless of age or position. He is a bit old for the level, but not ridiculously so for a guy who was drafted in 2008, and its with the caveat that he played just 23 pro games in his first year with injuries, and none in the field.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 10, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand
that, and I don’t doubt that he has B+, maybe A- potential, I just wouldn’t be willing to give him that high of a grade before he realizes his potential at AA, or AAA
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Certainly fair enough
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 10, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And really, I do agree
Hence the way I put it:
he’s close to B+ for me.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 10, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Havens, Mejia, Thole, add Coultas....
Havens – In John’s grading system B+ is pretty much a top 50 guy, I think. I think he could well end up there, but I don’t want to jump him that high yet on what is still a small sample (though having seen him play, I am a believer). He wasn’t generally considered top 100 when the season started.
On Mejia, I just want to edit my comment above, and say that the nasty breaking pitch I’m referring to is really a mid-upper 70’s curve, rather than a slider.
On Thole, I could upgrade him if I see positive reports on his defense. Actually, he’s looking pretty good so far statistically this year, having throw out 40% (8 of 20), with no errors on the season, but with 4 passed balls.
Finally, one more edit, I’d bump Duda in the 20th spot and replace him with Ryan Coultas, who has been looking good in AA. HM to Duda, Niesen, Ratliff, Familia, Lutz, Puello, Beaulac, Ramirez, Carr, Guzman, Calero.
I guess that makes sense
I wouldn’t have Havens in the Top 50, and like I said, he’s almost a B+, pretty much meaning if he moves up at midseason, as he probably should, and continues to handle himself in AA, I’d give him that grade.
I’d also like to say though, and John is less a culprit of this than Kevin Goldstein is, I don’t like locking into a grading system based on overall Top 100 lists. Crops of prospect talent vary too widely year to year, and Goldstein got himself into trouble by doing half of his Top 11s before he did his overall Top 100, and people complained that guys who got four stars before the Top 100 came out wound up in the Top 50, yet everyone else who was Top 50 wound up with five stars when KG did their team rankings. So there were a handful of guys who got Five Stars, but wound up below some Four Star guys on the overall Top 100, just because KG didn’t properly estimate where those Four Star guys would wind up overall.
I’d much prefer a sort of general performance or other evaluation criteria for what level of prospect warrants what grade, rather than a sort of curved scale based on the overall level of talent from youngsters in the minors.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on May 10, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Top 50 pitcher or hitter
So, in other words, top 100 prospect
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by OldProspects on May 10, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I stand corrected
I never remember this correctly. Yes, he typically gives out about 90 B+or better, so I’m off.
In the past my grades have tended to be too generous, it looks like I overcompensated and made these too strict. Fernando at this point should really get the A-. Upgrade Havens to B+, and Flores, Niese and Rustich should be straight Bs not B-. Then maybe 4-6 of those C+ guys should really be B-.
For the Cubs
Subtract: P Jeff Samardzija (iffy numbers in AAA, looking bad in the majors)
That’s about all I have. Everyone else either hasn’t done much to move out of consideration for the Top 100 (Vitters doing pretty well in low A, Cashner finally back on track after an oblique injury in spring training) or has not made a convincing case to move up to the Top 100 (too early to tell with Thomas, Carpenter, Flaherty, Searle and Coleman).
I figure Vitters and one other guy on that list will end the season on the Top 100 for the Cubs, with another name or two coming from the draft and/or from short season ball.
Samardzija
What bothers me is the velocity is down (94.7 to 92.3). I’m still at school so I couldn’t watch him pitch but I’m wondering if he is trying to take something off to get more movement or if he just is not throwing as hard. You have some more leeway with the secondary pitches when you are throwing 95 vs. 92. I’m glad they sent him back down to get working on the secondary stuff but the fastball velocity is what puzzles me.
RE
I have no clue what to think of the guy at this point. There have been reports from some of his outings over the past year and a half that had his FB clocked in the upper 80s. We all knew the guy was just a complete mess until he hit AAA last season when he suddenly started dominating. When he was called up, he initially looked sharp with his FB and a workable slider. Then…he just completely collapsed. This season has been nothing short of a disaster at this point.
At this point, everything is on the table for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he spends the rest of the season at AAA averaging a strikeout an inning with terrific HR and BB numbers. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he gave up baseball, tried out at WR for the Bears, and made the team.
by Outshined_One on May 7, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh...
If you look at the guy’s story… there is bound to be some ups and downs. He’s gonna go through stretches like this and he’s going to go through some other periods where he looks like he did last year. It’s not even close to realistic to think the guy is going to get to a level of performance and be that good or better going forward, especially with how fast he has progressed. I would have loved to have seen him pick up where he left off and build on last year right out of the chute, but some setbacks are not at all surprising. I think he’ll be fine.
Dominguez and Skipworth
Dominguez is starting to look pretty questionable right now. Not only is Dominguez struggling this whole season, but last season, Dominguez was significantly better in his favorable home park than on the road. I mentioned it earlier in the season, but I’d be very concerned about his offensive development to this point, though he is young and advanced defensively.
Skipworth is really struggling in A Ball, but catcher’s take awhile. If he doesn’t show improvement he should not be on a top 100 list, but I’m not sure he should have been on one at his age anyway.
I’d suggest that Christian Friedrich is likely to move up, though it’s a SSS. I think the Rizzo suggestions were a good one. I’d be interested to see how highly Crawford would make it if the season ended now. He’s been a real revelation.
dominguez not filling out???
i was on the back fields in jupiter during ST and i was talking to a HUGE marlins’ fan (yes, he was even more of a fan than i if you can believe that). he expressed to me his concerns about dominguez, mentioning that dominguez had yet to grow since being drafted. i guess the marlins were hoping that he would fill out more. i guess this seems like a plausible explanation for his failures, if you can call his struggles that. has anyone else heard this of dominguez? i’m guessing that trying to figure out whether a HS kid fills out is a difficult thing, looking at a kid and guessing what he’ll look like in five years seems, to me, nearly impossible.
I'm so confused
Are you criticizing or praising Dominguez? Did somebody say something about him filling out?
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Guessing what an HS kid will look like in 4 or 5 years....
….is called scouting. Not to say it’s always perfect, but these guys do have a lot of experience in seeing kids fill out and hence a lot of information to project how a given kid will fill out based on body type.
Medlen
Kris Medlen sure has gotten off to an impressive start, practically matching Hanson inning for inning. He’s second in the International League with 38 SO (Hanson is first with 48).
30.2 in 17 H 7 BB 4ER 38SO 1.17 ERA .167 AVG
He’s been really great since his move to the rotation.
He pitched excellently in relief in the AFL as well. And his work in last year’s Southern League playoffs was dominating too. He’s one of the more under-rated pitchers around IMO. In that span since last year’s regular season, he’s struck out 81 batters and walked only 10. I’m not sure he’s a top 100 guy, but he’s certainly extremely under-rated. After Heyward, Hanson, Freeman and Hernandez he’s the next best prospect in the Braves organization IMO.
Tommy Hanson 4 ROY
Re; Medlen
Where does his fit into Atlanta’s plans? Are they going to consider using him out of the bullpen? Also, if he remains as a starter, do you project him to be a middle of the rotation type of guy?
As long as he keeps pitching well as a starter...
He has to stay there. He became a starter about the same time that Hanson got promoted last year, and he’s performed every bit as well as Hanson (albeit with fewer Ks, but also fewer walks) across that span of time.
I honestly can’t say where he fits into the Braves plans, because there’s just so much starting pitching in the organization; at the very least though, I’d think he’s going to be a very good late-inning reliever… And barring an injury that’s his floor. His ceiling is probably a very good middle of the rotation type. The thing is, that because he was a hitter as an amateur, and a relief pitcher for most of his pro-career… He still hasn’t pitched much at all for a 23 year old. And he’s a guy that could definitely earn his paycheck with his bat too.
Tommy Hanson 4 ROY
Only 41 at bats but Corey Brown has been ridiculous.
.415/.500/.683
K rate isn’t great, but still much improved from last season thus far.
After the show he put on tonight (3-5, 2 HR, 2B, 4 RBI, 2K)
his line is now .435/.509/.826. Obviously its early in the season, especially in his season of only 46 AB’s but he’s cut down on the K’s by a nice margain with 11 so far. He’s a legit defensive CF so a breakout season offensively would have to push him into the top 100.
I’m also with those mentioning Dominic Brown. I’ve like him since the start, and you gotta like what you’ve seen thus far in the early going.
A breakout season offensively ought to push him into the major leagues...
Sure would be nice if the A’s could replace Matt Holliday after this season with a homegrown clone, wouldn’t it?
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In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Add
Anthony Swarzak he’s been unbelievable
other additions:
Nick Weglarz, Joe Thurston, Fox on the Cubbies
subtractions
Greg Halman
Lars Anderson – Ok probably too early… hehe
Angel Morales
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 7, 2009 6:58 PM EDT reply actions
Joe Thurston? Nick Weglarz?
Is Thurston a joke? Or are we talking about different dudes. Jake Fox? I know he’s tearing it up, but he’s 26 and trying to shed his quad-A label. And Weglarz? He’s doing terribly in AA right now. Frankly, I’m confused by your post.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Well, by Seth Stohs for one.
and several others as well, if not in the top overall 100 awfully close.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 7, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry for the confusion though, I wasn't thinking of the set top 100
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 7, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Top 100 overall? or just top 100 Twins prospects? What do you have to say about Joe Thurston/Nick Fox/Nick Weglarz?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
My only problem with Weglarz is...
He was a top 100(ish) guy to start the season. I had him in the second half of my top 100 list, as did others. While he was at least in the picture for no. 100 in most others’ minds.
by byronlhsdrmr on May 7, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Horrible comments…I’m sorry, but I have to say it.
by ChalupaCabrera on May 7, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
He’s been amazing. Lyles got more of the hype coming into the season but Seaton is great. Could lead this team in a few years.
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Lyles hasn't been half bad himself...
Despite a 1-3 record and 4.11 ERA, Lyles has struck out 35 batters in 30 2/3 innings, while walking only 6. He has, however, given up 3 homeruns in 6 starts.
by byronlhsdrmr on May 7, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Was He Even In The Top 100 To Begin With?
A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.
a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
add
trevor reckling, sp, angels.
michael pineda, sp, mariners
joseph dunigan, 1b/dh, sea
Dunigan
MASSIVE power potential. I wonder if the K/BB ratio will hold him back. But the man has got POP.
by ChalupaCabrera on May 7, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Casey Kelly
No mentions yet? Kid’s been tearing it up. I really hope he decides to stick with pitching, because he’s pretty good at it. He’d be in my top 100 right now.
+1
He’s been pretty darn good to start his career.
4-0 0.70 ERA 26IP 4BB 23K. And he wanted to be a SS!!
I don’t know if he has a choice about sticking with pitching; I believe that is what the Sox want because he’s a better pitcher than a SS
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Padres
…Not all new additions, but these Padres should be top 100 players:
Kyle Blanks
Mat Latos
Kellen Kulbacki
Jaff Decker
(plus whomever they draft at #3)
Desmond Jennings
Everyone had Jennings in their top 100 but John Sickels it seems and since this is blog, I assume it’s his top 100 list we are working off of.
I don’t know why John didn’t have Jennings in, I’m guessing the injury concerns but until he injures himself again, I don’t see any reason to keep him out.
I didn't include Jennings
Because he was in my top 100 going into the year.
That being said, looks like all he needs to do is stay healthy to be considered a top 10 guy. His talent is off the charts.
Brandon Crawford is going to be interesting. He needs to keep hitting at AA, but a plus defensive SS with some OBP skills and power is pretty awesome.
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Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Promoted
I believe he was JUST promoted to AA. He should definitely be an interesting one to follow. Relatively unheard of and a great set of skills. Plus, in San Fran he doesn’t have much competition. He should take advantage of his opportunity.
i’m rooting for him.
I meant he needs to keep hitting now that he’s at AA, I should have been more clear. If he can, he lines himself up well to taken over in the second half of 2010 or the start of 2011, when Renteria’s contract is up.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
Daniel Bard
I’m surprised he hasn’t gotten any mention. He was at 131 on the community prospect list so he was already close to top 100. And, he has been absolutely ridiculous in AAA with 29k ks in 16 innings as compared to only 6 hits and 5 walks and a 1.83 go/ao ratio so those he doesn’t strike out he mostly keeps on the ground. Sure, there are limits on his likely role as long as Papelbon is there but he is still looking incredibly dominant and deserving of a top 100 spot.
+1
I got ridiculed for calling him a top 50 prospect in the offeseason, but he clearly has dominating closer potential.
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by The Congo Hammer on May 11, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Henry Sosa?
He looks like he’s putting it together in AA and boasts two plus pitches (FB, curve). Could potentially crack a top-100 list by the end of the year if his change comes around.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
As far as additions to,
you might want to consider Hector Rondon, a RH starter who has been consistently excellent at AA Akron and Lonnie Chisenhall, a HiA 3B who is among the leaders in all batting categories. I noticed De La Cruz mentioned but he has an elbow injury and is not project to start throwing again until late June.
De La Cruz
I’m assuming the injury wasn’t especially serious if he’s expected to be back so soon?
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Denny Almonte
Repeating the MWL, but still only 20. High K’s are still a concern, but crushing the ball.
Just a question
Did John release a Top 100 list on the site? Or a Top 50 Hitters/Pitchers list on the site? O
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
I don't believe so
But in past years, he did later in the year
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 11, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
new top 100 candidates
Mine would be Kyle Drabek, Jaff Decker, Reese Havens, Jason Knapp, Trevor Reckling, Tony Thomas and a sleeper Mauricio Robles ..
Hector Rondon and Lonnie Chisenhall
I know someone mentioned this but wanted to reiterate….Both are dominating at their prospective levels at relatively young ages. Rondon (21 at AA) is 5-0, 1.23 ERA, .203 Avg agains, 26/5 K/BB ratio, and only 22 hits in 29 innings. Pretty impressive stuff, he’s now a legitimate top pitching prospect in my opinion.
Chisenhall (20yo) has done extremely well in the normally tough Carolina League hitting .333, 6 HRs, 32 Rbis, .383 OBP, .545 SLG, .928 OPS. His K/BB ratio, 26/9, could be better but it’s not bad for someone in his first full year of pro ball and he’s hitting righties(.337) and lefties(.325) equally hard which is a great sign. Plus reports are that he’s playing a great third base after the move over there and his work ethic, approach to the game, and focus are intangibles have impressed everyone. He’s going to be a great player.
by cursedcleveland on May 11, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions
Chisenhall and Posey are two guys who've surprised me
I was under the impression that both had simply doubles power, but they’ve each had ISOPs above .200, and are on pace to hit upwards of 20 homers. Is this simply small sample size, or something about the particular parks and leagues that they’re in, or is this genuine improvement?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 11, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
From Indians Prospect Insider...
“Most 20-year olds would have a tough time adjusting to such a pitching advanced league like the Carolina League, but not Chisenhall. His line drive swing has adapted well to the professional game, and he has shown a penchant for the big hit with three grand slams and a three-run homer already this year. His ability to consistently square up the baseball with the barrel of the bat at a high rate has impressed scouts in and outside the Indians organization. Chisenhall will probably never be a guy who hits 25+ home runs a year, but he could be more like a Dustin Pedroia type in the making who pounds the gaps for a lot of doubles, makes consistent, hard contact, and has the ability to hit 15-20 home runs at the big league level someday.”
I’m not sure this is a good comp, I think Chisenhall has shown more power earlier in his career and could project as a 25+ HR guy with good plate discipline.
by cursedcleveland on May 11, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
If he becomes Pedroia without the speed at 3B
He’d still have value, but not be a star. Even in A+ ball, his slash stats are very good, but they’re being helped by a very high BABIP. If they come down, his production would be solid, but unexceptional, and that’s with his power numbers spiking. I think he’s still a borderline top 100 guy
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 11, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
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