2009 Amateur Draft Mock #4 Round One
by Andy Seiler on May 4, 2009 5:12 PM EDT
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PrintThere's a lot of change in this week's mock, and it's not just for kicks. A lot of players are making moves, and Luke Bailey's injury does shake things up a lot in the bottom half of the round. I'm starting to get comfortable with a few of these picks, so feel free to change my mind.
1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - Former GM Jim Bowden came out and said the decision's already been made. Duh. Previously: #1.
2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina - I read an interesting comparison on PG this week of Ackley to Matt Wieters, where there was a little disappointment in the scouting community that the players didn't seem to hugely improve in college. However, they made the point that there wasn't really anywhere to go. Good point. Previously: #2.
3. San Diego - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - White's really a solid pitcher, but there's been three years now to read into his flaws. He might not have the best arm of the three available pitchers here, but his combination of stuff is probably the best. He doesn't come with the mechanical issues of Aaron Crow. Previously: #3.
4. Pittsburgh - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - Tate will be the first prep position player off the board, regardless of where he goes. Pittsburgh flashed some cash last year with Pedro Alvarez, and it will take a good amount to sign Tate. I have a feeling he's a top seven guy right now. Previously: #9.
5. Baltimore - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - The more I read about Gibson, the more I'm a little mystified as to why he isn't throwing harder. He's got the body for it, and if he was able to clean his mechanics up slightly, he'd have plus velocity with plus command. Someone will buy into that possible combo. Previously: #8.
6. San Francisco - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - I project Crow to go a spot after his former college teammate, and his spot could fluctuate a bit on his performance this month in Indy ball. He's been a lot quieter than Tanner Scheppers, but he doesn't have much to prove. Previoiusly: #5.
7. Atlanta - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - Yes, I think Wheeler stands a good chance of being the first prep pitcher taken. His pitch mix is that good, and he reminds me of a right-handed Tyler Matzek. However, he might be even more advanced with more potential than Matzek. There are multiple top ten teams reportedly very interested in him. Previously: #7.
8. Cincinnati - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Two years after a disaster of a prep pick in Devin Mesoraco, I think the Reds get back on the horse with Matzek. He's everything the Reds would want in a pitcher, and I think he's got the makeup to succeed in a hitter's park. Previously: #6.
9. Detroit - Grant Green, SS, USC - If someone's crazy enough to buy into Green's supposed top-tier talent, it's the Tigers. No offense Tiger fans. However, Green has done nothing but create question marks this year, and every scouting site has eventually admitted that he might even be as low as a second half first rounder. Ouch. Previously: #4.
10. Washington - Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU - Here's a new one for you. After three weeks of going with Rich Poythress in this spot, I think Jared Mitchell's hit enough to start meriting this placement, though he's not really a top ten guy. Athletic outfielders seemed to be well-liked by Washington, but who knows where their draft is headed past Strasburg. Previously: #23.
11. Colorado - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints - My shocker of the past week was when I saw Scheppers listed as the second best overall draft prospect by PG. Apparently, they were so impressed with his workout that they think he could be in the running to the Mariners. I haven't quite bought into that, and I don't think most teams up here have either. Previously: #15.
12. Kansas City - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX) - After going with Shelby Miller in this spot in previous mocks, I think the Royals might actually prefer Purke. After the way Danny Duffy has turned out, I'm not surprised. However, Purke still might be taken higher than this, as teams have renewed interest in him. Previously: #14.
13. Oakland - Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State - Still considered a solid middle of the first round prospect, I think Leake will be one of the more unquestioned picks no matter who takes him. For some reason I think this guy will have a long career as a #2 or 3 starter. He's better than his fastball velocity. Previously: #11.
14. Texas - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX) - If he falls this far, this is a no-brainer for the Rangers. Miller has a premium, top of the rotation arm, but his polish leaves much to be desired. In a prep pitching class with a fair amount of polish, that's the main reason he falls this far. He could really go anywhere from #7-14. Previously: #12.
15. Cleveland - Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb - While I haven't personally bought in completely to Brothers' transformation from shaky lefty to top draft prospect, I still think he's a solid first round prospect. The Indians have gone hitting in the first round lately, but with a penchant for smaller schools. Brothers fits into the latter category. Previously: #13.
16. Arizona - Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia - Amazingly enough, I went from thinking Poythress was a huge reach at #10 on my mocks to actually slotting in quite well here at #16. His power is legit, and while he's not on the level of Smoak or Alonso from a year ago, he's right up there with the next tier. Previously: #10.
17. Arizona - Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK) - James has continued his meteoric climb up the draft boards, and I feel fairly comfortable with him here. The Diamondbacks will likely mix a hitter with a pitcher, and probably a prep player with a college player in these two picks. James slots in well here overall. Previously: #42.
18. Florida - Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS (CA) - All indications have Hobgood and the former player I had slotted here, Mychal Givens, going in opposite directions quickly. Hobgood's rise has been deserved, and I think he goes somewhere in the latter half of the first round, though he's not better than Jacob Turner. He's just more affordable. Previously: #50.
19. St. Louis - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - Oliver's started to turn a little corner, and I think he's solidifying a first round spot. I still think his pedigree means he goes over fellow college lefty James Paxton. Previously: #17.
20. Toronto - James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky - This makes so much sense that I almost referred to Paxton as a Toronto Blue Jay to someone this past week. Kentucky blue to Blue Jay blue. He strikes out a lot of guys, but the walks are a concern. I hope his knee is actually healthy. Previously: #20.
21. Houston - Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA) - Skaggs has been an interesting guy to track this spring, and I honestly don't know exactly where he'll land. Being a prep lefty has its advantages, but inconsistency isn't a good thing. Someone will grab him, and Bobby Heck liked high school pitchers last year. Previously: #16.
22. Minnesota - Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL) - I've finally decided that Borchering looks like a true first round prep hitter. He's leapfrogged Matt Davidson in my estimation, as Davidson's defensive questions mean he might be limited to first base. Borchering's bat will take time, but I see the Twins giving him that time. Previously: #39.
23. Chicago (AL) - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt - Minor's up and down junior year just means his value is hard to gauge. The White Sox have taken players like this before, and I think this might be a decent fit. He's a first round prospect, but I'm not sure his performance merits that. Previously: #19.
24. Los Angeles (AL) - Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ) - Trout continues to be an intriguing prospect, and I think he's played himself firmly into the second half of the first round. While there's always concern about the polish of cold weather players, I think Trout will be just fine. Previously: #26.
25. Los Angeles (AL) - Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA) - And the new top prep catcher is Max Stassi. Luke Bailey's injury opens many doors for Stassi, but I'm not sure teams are as ready to take Stassi as they were Bailey. However, I think if he falls to the Angels here, this is a solid pick. Previously: #22.
26. Milwaukee - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC) - Younginer still strikes me as a pitcher that could turn out to be the best prep pitcher from this entire draft. His stuff is that good. However, a max effort delivery means some teams will shy away from him, thinking he'll need to be moved to the bullpen. Previously: #27.
27. Seattle - Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA) - Mier continues to establish himself as one of the few available players that project to stick at shortstop over the long-term. That kind of value is hard to find. He might not hit like a prototypical first rounder, but if he fields like the reports I've seen, he'll be a nice player in 4-5 years. Previously: #31.
28. Boston - Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State - Alright, I admit I'm stuck on this one. I'm really struggling to find anyone else that would make as much sense in this slot as Wheeler. Any suggestions? Previously: #28.
29. New York (AL) - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO) - Yeah, I think it's going to take that kind of money to buy Turner away from his UNC commitment. You don't hook up with Scott Boras for nothing. However, if anyone can pry him away, it's the Yankees. He's also a possible for Boston, St. Louis, the Angels, and Tampa Bay in my estimation. Previously: #24.
30. Tampa Bay - Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC) - I still think this one makes a lot of sense. Myers is a hit-first type of kid, but his versatility in the field reminds me of Brett Lawrie from a year ago. I assume someone will want that early on, and the Rays value athleticism. Previously: #30.
31. Chicago (NL) - Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana - I've seen enough features on Arnett recently to believe that someone will take him in the first round. His lack of a polished track-record makes me believe that enough teams will shy away from him, though. Nice regional pick here. Previously: #54.
32. Colorado - AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame - Strangely enough, with all the criticisms of Pollock I've seen, most sites conclude that he's a borderline supplemental round pick. The Rockies like college hitters, and Pollock provides them with good value for a second first round pick. Previously: #32.
That's it for this week. Enough moves for you? I've really got a feel for the pool of players in the running for first round slots, and I'm also getting a better feel for signability and slotting as we're going along. As more information comes out closer to draft day, it's easier to make those decisions. The usual disclaimer: writeups on draft status going into the draft were a mixture of BA and PG unless otherwise noted. Go to their sites for draft coverage. They're awesome.
What do you think? Got any comments? Please, help me change my mind.
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Can't say I know much about Arnett
So it’s hard to really judge the pick. I’ve got a hard time seeing us go with a high school arm, though. I believe the earliest high school arm Wilken has tabbed in 3 years with the Cubs was Chris Huseby in the 11th in 06 (although I’d have to double check that one). Certainly, that isn’t the basis for any overall assessment on options. Can you provide me some more information on Arnett? Is he a good athlete overall? We took a crapload of arms lost year, several of them good athletes that were only in the early stages of full time pitching. What’s his scouting report look like?
I don’t really follow the MLB draft closely enough to have strong thoughts one way or another this early. Gut feeling says that we’ll have a draft closer to 2007 than 2008, as we loaded up on arms early last year, whereas in 07, the Vitters year, it was heavy on positional players, particularly early. The system has some okay depth at C, 2nd, some raw pieces at short. If there’s one element that’s lacking a bit, it’s the lack of quantity and quality power prospects, both positionally and, to a lesser degree, pitching (hence my curiosity on the scouting report).
I am curious where you have Alex Wilson at, as I could definitely see Wilken drafting him again.
Arnett's a college starter.
He’s at Indiana University. The other option I weighed there was Drew Storen from Stanford.
Sickels Wrote About Him This Weekend
Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
Emerging prospect this spring, going 9-1, 2.49 with a 76/24 K/BB in 76 innings, 58 hits allowed. The contextual ERA in which he’s pitched is about 6.00, and all of his component ratios are quite strong. He’s big and physical at 6-5, 225, and scouts report his velocity has improved from 90-93 to 93-96 this spring, along with a sharper slider. He looks like a possibility in the second half of the first round, and isn’t likely to get past the supplemental round.
Sounds like a good get. Considering Wilken’s love of athleticism, I’d like to see something more in-depth on him before really buying into this pick.
Frankly, the more I think about it, the more Pollock makes the most sense.
by Outshined_One on May 4, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks O_O
Sounds like a pick I would really like – could really use a big power arm.
On a side note, man, some tough starts to the year in our ranks. Good to see McDaniel back. Mateo up in AA was what I wanted, but his control is still erratic. Flaherty’s been in a slump, Daytona bats are bleh. At least, there’s some bright spots, like Tony Thomas and Casey Coleman.
RE
The minors started less than a month ago. I’m content to sit back and see how everything goes for the time being. With a lot of the guys currently in this system, I’m just hoping for a full season without any major injuries, regardless of success (Shafer, Carpenter, Vitters, etc.).
It’s a bit of a bummer no one has broken out in a big way aside from Jake Fox. However, no one seems to have completely and totally fallen on his face. There’s a huge gray area in terms of who in the current crop of prospects could come out of this season in the Cubs’ Top 10 in the offseason. We’ll see how it plays out.
by Outshined_One on May 4, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Wilkin - Pollock
There goes that Notre Dame connection again….
by ofsticksandbats on May 5, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Eric Arnett
I had a chance to watch Arnett pitch earlier this year and got to sit behind the radar guns. He was 89-92 consistently and touched 95 once or twice. Not sure where John got 93-96. His slider is an average, maybe slightly above average pitch. He works mostly off the fastball. Great pitchers frame. I’m surprised he’s 225. Seemed like he was 190-200. He’s pretty lean.
I don’t see him as a 1st rounder. A 2nd rounder in my opinion.
I find it hard to believe that Miller would fall to 14
That seems too boner-inducing to be realistic.
Well, I see it as one of Scheppers, Purke, Leake, or Miller.
And the others have moved up a lot recently. It’s not that Miller has fallen. There’s just not room for 14 top picks in the first 13.
I just wanted to say good job Andy, and I hope you keep it up. It’s become a weekly read for me as it’s probably one of the most informative mocks out there, plus it makes the wait till June alot more bearable.
+1
Great job. What’s really nice, is that you release a round on different days over the week. So, there isn’t much wait between updates. Thanks.
I make a mock on my blog but, never before the week of the draft. Once I peg a player to a team, my mind will keep fixed on that pick each time I go to update it. So, I only release one mock.
Poythress
Andy, do you think that Poythress is on the level of Brett Wallace? Wallace went at 13 last year in a very deep draft class. If you do think that Poythress is on the same level as Wallace, wouldn’t that mean that Poythress would be drafted higher than Wallace was, due to a draft that isn’t as deep?
Why would it work like that?
It’s not like every team uses the same set of rankings, or anything remotely like that, for that matter. All it takes is one team to buy into a guy to make him their pick . . .it doesn’t necessarily say anything about how other teams perceive the player.
No, he's below Wallace from what I gather.
Mainly due to the fact that Wallace at least stood a chance to stick at third as of draft day last June. The bats are fairly similar, with the exception of the handedness. Another difference in terms of draft stock is the fact that Wallace had been a big-time prospect since high school, where Poythress was slightly less heralded and really exploded onto the scene this year. Teams were waiting years to pick Wallace, but Poythress only became the best college first baseman this year. That kind of jump up scares a few teams away usually, as some teams like to draft on track record and tools, rather than a burst of one year based on college power.
I didn’t mention Wallace in my writeup above, because I considered him a college third baseman, whereas Smoak and Alonso were pure first basemen, Poythress’ only pro spot. I would choose Poythress over David Cooper, though, and that’s no insult to Cooper. I just think Poythress will hit for more power as a pro.
I think you need to bump Scheppers up
In his debut independent league debut scouts said he throwing a free and easy mid 90s, and had a sharp slider. I think he’ll go top 5.
This is from Jason Churchill at ESPN’s draft blog:
In February, Scheppers was a late first-round pick at best, but now it seems like everyone has a tough time seeing him get past Seattle at No. 2.
Yeah, he's higher on most sites now.
But he has to prove over the next month that he can stay healthy on normal rest while maintaining his stuff. That’s more important for him than it is other college prospects, who have proven they can do that all year. Scheppers will probably creep up over time on my mocks, but he’s not quite up that far yet. He’s pitched some bullpens, and that’s about it.
Andy, let me ask you about the Astros at 21....
I understand where you’re getting a high school pitcher from, Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton last year, in Bobby Heck and Ed Wade’s first draft with Houston. However, it seems to me that Houston NEEDS impact bats. The only real impact bat they have is Jason Castro, and many have questions about how much he’ll hit… oh and they have Brian Bogusevic and Chris Johnson as well (I’ll wait as you say, “who”). Anyways, the Astros took Castro, a college hitter, early last season but, I have not seen a mock where they do the same this year. I understand there is a severe lack of hitters in this draft, especially college hitters but, I feel as though a position player may be the pick. Then Houston will take a high upside high school pitcher, a Texas high school pitcher, next, say Slade Heathcott or Chad James (I know, not from Texas)… Heathcott because they were willing to pay over slot for Seaton, why not Heathcott. Any thoughts? Chances you think they go position player in the first? If they do, who do you think it will be?
...continued...
I was thinking Houston “over-drafting” D.J. LeMahieu. Their system lacks middle infielders.
LeMahieu's got a questionable bat, isn't really a shortstop, and has signability concerns.
Not a good combo if you’re picking at #21.
I think drafting in terms of need is something that will only get that group fired.
Since they’re drafting eleven slots lower this year than last, I see the Astros going unquestionably with the best player available. Also, there’s not much reason to overdraft a hitter at that slot. I don’t see anyone that would merit that slot on need alone, as the guys available there in this scenario are the more questionable prep bats. Bobby Borchering, Mike Trout, and Max Stassi are great prospects, but taking them over a pitcher that’s better is pushing it. Castro was a decent pick, mainly because they were quite sure he was at least going to be a Major League player, even if his ceiling wasn’t that high. Picking a lower floor hitter where you can have a higher ceiling pitcher doesn’t make much sense at all, and I know that both Ed Wade and Bobby Heck know that.
As for their second pick and beyond, yeah, I see the Astros going with some higher upside arms plus more athletic position players. Heathcott would be a nice fit for either spot (he’s a two-way player), though he might need quite a bit of money to sign. James will be off the board before the Astros’ second pick. I’m 99% percent sure on that. Other players of interest might be Cal’s Brett Jackson, if he falls that far, which is a good possibility at this point, Baylor’s Aaron Miller, Florida’s Matt den Dekker, plus various prep players.
Rays Picks
Thank you for doing these mock drafts. I love them and most of the picks really fit. However, as a Tampa Bay Ray fan, I have a legitimate beef with our picks.
From what I’ve heard, Myers is a good prospect. However, I don’t know where he would fit with us. We already have a good catcher in Navarro and we already drafted a good catcher last year (Jake Jeffries). I know he can play first and third, but we don’t need him at third (obviously) and BA says he’s a better fit at third and at catcher than at first. Jeff Malms or, if he falls there, Borchering are better fits in my opinion. We could also be looking at a pitcher with our first pick. (I see you have Arnett going a pick later.)
Brooks Pounders does make sense, however the other players around him make more sense (Robert Stock and Ben Paulsen to be specific). Again, I’m not telling you those picks are stupid, but I think the Rays are looking at other options with our picks
You can never have too many catchers in your system.
Navarro is a good but not great catcher, and Jake Jeffries should not deter the Rays from taking a catcher. However, the Rays have only taken two HS batters in the first 118 picks in the last four drafts, so it is a bit of a stretch to say they’ll take one with their first pick here (not to say it won’t happen). I think D.J. LaMahieu is a good fit, and could fill a future void at second.
I am new to this site and this is my first post....
Hi, I am a big Giants fan here. Do you really see the Giants reaching for a MLB ready arm with the 6th overall pick? It seems to me that Aaron Crow has limited upside but could be a number 3 starter as early as next year. Chances are he is going to want a MLB contract which I don’t see the Giants offering.
I agree that the Giants will go with a pitcher with the sixth pick if someone like Dustin Ackley doesn’t fall to them, but I see them going with a high school arm not a MLB ready arm like Crow. With the Giants loaded with young pitching (Bumgarner, Alderson, Barnes) it seems to me they would like to sign a young kid like Purke or Wheeler who might be further away but has a much larger upside.
Any responses would be welcome. Thanks.
by saltlakecitygiant on May 5, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions
I can see them taking Tyler Matzek if he's there...
but, Aaron Crow, if there of course, is not a reach, he’s the best available prospect. Yes, the Giants have many a young pitcher but, you can never have too many, look a the Red Sox. Aaron Crow also has a higher upside than you give him credit for, he has the stuff to become a number one, assuming his questionable mechanics don’t hinder him. He clearly has two plus pitches, his mid 90s fastball and slider, and I saw reports last year that his changeup is above average. Keep in mind that even if San Fransisco fills their rotation with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Alderson, Sanchez, etc. Crow’s stuff could fit in the 8th inning or later, that of course, would be a worst case.
Yeah, Crow is much better than saltlakecitygiant thinks.
And he won’t require a Major League contract. He didn’t want one last year, and I don’t see him getting one this year. His mechanics are a concern to all involved, but if he continues to go out there and dominate with Ft. Worth this month, I see him as a top ten lock. He’s a possible #2 to me, but only a #2 because I think he’ll throw too many pitches to eat up innings. Same reason I consider Daisuke Matsuzaka or Adam Wainwright #2 pitchers. He just won’t go deep into games very often. But his stuff is on the level of a healthy Rich Harden. Great stuff.
As for Zack Wheeler, I think it’s interesting you bring him up, as Brian Sabean reportedly took in a game of his just a couple weeks ago. As most of you know, GMs only take in games of the prospects they have serious interest in. If the Giants weren’t seriously considering him for the #6 slot, the most they would have sent was a crosschecker. However, Wheeler has flown up boards more than anyone I’ve seen in a few years. No one included him in the best prep pitcher argument entering the season, but now it’s looking like there’s a 50/50 chance he’s the first prep pitcher taken. His pitch mix is as close to ML ready as you normally see with prep pitchers. I’d compare him favorably to Rick Porcello from the 2007 draft. Wheeler won’t fall like Porcello did, but will actually be right up there as a top ten pick.
I see the Giants being faced with a choice of Crow, Wheeler, Scheppers, Green, and Matzek, and while all are good options, I think there are probably a few scouts that see a bit of Tim Lincecum in Aaron Crow, who was the best college pitcher in last year’s draft class. His stuff is electric, even with questionable mechanics. I’d be a little surprised if the Giants went with a bat, as it’s a bit of a reach for almost anyone in that slot, even Grant Green. But when facing the choice of pitchers, I see Crow as the most likely outcome. That’s the only reason he’s right here for me in this mock.
Love the Mocks
I think a neat addition would be if you included the player’s agent. Might be hard to find that information, but as we know the players agent can have a large effect on ultimate draft position.
or perhaps just note Boras Corp. clients...
that’s feasible and some teams… [cough]… Astros… [cough]… won’t deal with Boras (stupid Carlos Beltran).
Yeah, I could note the Boras clients.
Sometimes I mention it in the comments of a player’s little writeup.
Yeah, it's possible.
An earlier mock of mine had him there. However, the more I’m seeing in terms of national coverage has him as a top fifteen guy at the moment. His pitchability is by far the most impressive I’ve seen in a college pitcher this year, including Strasburg. With an average fastball, Leake has developed his secondary stuff to the point where I think he’ll have a long career and will reach the Majors quite quickly. He’ll make low minors hitters look silly.
Boston
Could they take Myers at 28? They lack catching depth in their system, and it seems like there’s a pretty good C prospect waiting there. I could definitely see them taking a C over an OF, provided they’re of roughly equal skillsets.
Could you see the Nats taking Leake at #10?
Or would he be a signability concern?
I don't think he's a signability concern at all.
But I think they might want someone for underslot there. Leake wouldn’t sign for underslot..
Leake
The more I think about it the more I am starting to like the A’s taking Leake in that spot. Obviously as an A’s fan the Tim Hudson comps are very appealing but the A’s previously drafted Leake out of high school pretty high (7th round in 2006) so they must be pretty high on him. They are not afraid to draft a 6 ft righthander either.
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