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Interesting College Pitchers for 2009 Draft, Part Two

James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky
   Paxton has an unattractive 5.40 ERA, but this is around average for his context, and his other numbers are sharp: 97/17 K/BB in 65 innings, 68 hits allowed, giving him K/IP, K/BB, and H/IP marks that are all very strong for the context in which he's pitching. His biggest weakness is a high home run rate, with 10 dingers given up. Paxton is 6-4, 215 and has been clocked as high as 95 MPH. He's from Canada and is a bit raw compared to some other college pitchers, but has a very high ceiling. He could go anywhere in the first or second round.

Brooks Raley, LHP, Texas A&M
    Raley is having a statistically dominant season, going 7-1, 1.96 with an 84/19 K/BB in 78 innings, 51 hits allowed. He's also playing great as an outfielder, hitting .318/.443/.459 with 33 walks and 21 steals in 157 at-bats, demonstrating athleticism though scouts prefer him on the mound. His fastball is average at 87-89 MPH, but his curveball, slider, and changeup are all solid, and his control is very good. His athleticism and command should help him stay healthy. His lack of a plus fastball, as well as his sophomore status and resultant leverage, make it very unclear where he will fall on draft day.

Jason Stoffel, RHP, Arizona
    Stoffel has struggled a bit with his command this year. He has a 5.59 ERA with a 41/19 K/BB in 39 innings, 36 hits allowed, collecting eight saves. His K/IP is very good for context, and even his ERA isn't bad given that the overall ERA in Arizona games is about 6.20. At his best, Stoffel buzzes hitters with a mid-90s fastball and a hard curveball, but he hasn't always been at his best this year. This reminds me of what happened to Mariners prospect Josh Fields at the University of Georgia, who had a similar slump in his junior year. Teams still like Stoffel, but where he gets drafted will likely depend on what his bonus demands are.

Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
    Storen has shown excellent command this year, posting a 42/4 K/BB in 28 innings. His K/IP is outstanding, and his 3.21 ERA and 25 hits allowed are very solid for context. He's picked up six saves, but his arsenal should be diverse enough to be a starter in pro ball: 90-94 MPH fastball, good curveball, and a changeup that needs polish but is promising when he uses it. His control is obviously excellent, and he fits well as a "safe" pick late in the first round or in the supplemental round.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
     The buildup about Strasburg is actually getting a bit ridiculous. The numbers are awesome: 10-0, 1.38, 147/18 K/BB in 78 innings, 48 hits allowed. The scouting reports are awesome: upper 90s to 100 MPH fastball, excellent secondary pitches, excellent command. But people are now throwing around Tom Seaver comparisons and calling Strasburg a once-in-40-years prospect. I don't mean to downplay him at all; he's legitimately terrific, and the Nationals are fools if they don't make every possible effort to sign him, but he's still a pitcher and as such is risky by nature. The contrarian part of my mind is starting to rebel somewhat against the hype.

Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State
    Another hard thrower, Tootle can get up to 99 MPH and this is reflected with 47 strikeouts in 40 innings, a fine ratio in the context of Jacksonville State. On the other hand, his command needs work: he's walked 26 leading to a 4.54 ERA. He's somewhat raw but could go anywhere in the second half of the first round or in the supplemental round.

Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor
     Volz's performance hasn't quite matched his potential yet. He's 3-5, 4.00 with a 71/33 K/BB in 74 innings, 73 hits allowed. His components are above average for context, but he lacks consistency. At his best, he has a 97 MPH fastball and a plus slider, but both his velocity and control will slip when his mechanics aren't right. His ceiling is impressive but he's still polishing up his game, and like several of these guys he could go later in the first round.

Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
   White has a 3.36 ERA with a 77/26 K/BB in 70 innings so far, with 56 hits allowed. His components are very good though not exceptional. He has a fine body at 6-3, 200, a fine fastball at 89-94 MPH, an a very fine slider. His curveball and changeup will need some polish in pro ball. His command is generally solid, though not terrific. All in all, White is basically, well, solid, and would be another safe pick in the second half of the round.

Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M
    His headline stats doesn't stand out at 4.48 ERA and a 5-5 record for a 30-16 team, but his 95/16 K/BB in 64 innings is excellent, and he's not been overly hittable with 59 hits allowed and a .239 batting average against, solid for context. Wilson has a 90-95 MPH fastball and a very good slider, but his curveball and changeup can be inconsistent. He is a Tommy John survivor but appears fully recovered, and could end up being a very nice pick for someone in the back end of the first round or in the supplemental round.

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Jun 2009 by John Sickels - 35 comments

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as a cubs fan

i was very disappointed when we couldn’t “steal” Alex Wilson. I think, off the top, we drafted him in the 10th last year and followed him over the summer. I was hoping we’d give him late first/early 2nd money. Considering Wilken has a tendency to follow guys he likes (repeated Cashner, I believe he repeated Marquez Smith, likes the Matulia family), I wouldn’t be surprised if we popped Alex Wilson in the late first, if he’s there. On the whole, though, I expect this draft to be more similar to 2007 than 2008.

by toonsterwu on May 3, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Storen

John – if you’re right about him having a potential starter’s arsenal, he could be a guy the Jays target in the supplemental if they don;t think he’d be available by their 2nd round pick. They have a bit of a history of draftin college closers who they think would fit well in the rotation – Cecil, Farina, I think Rzep…
That may be a smart decision as many big time college starters are killed with workload and break down in the pros.

by ofsticksandbats on May 3, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

storen is draft-eligible?

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on May 3, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’s 22 in pg crosschecker and after having a good week last week, I think he’ll be right up there.

by bigfatfan on May 4, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

White

John – I think you may be selling him short – I’ve been hearing alot of speculation that he will be a single digit pick

by ofsticksandbats on May 3, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That was the most interesting thing

I wonder if he’s not as exciting as other people have suggested

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on May 3, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

John, most poeple say that White could/should be the first pitcher taken. It seems like you disagree – by a lot. Please tell us more.

by pffriberg on May 3, 2009 4:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mike Murray

Not a college pitcher, but I still have a question about him. He’s the catcher at Wakeforest.

Is he a draft prospect? Top 10 rounds?

by supermets on May 3, 2009 7:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

According to pg crosschecker, Alex White is #5, Paxton is 16 and Storen is 22.

by bigfatfan on May 3, 2009 9:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind

Tootle got some stomach virus and lost a bunch of weight and, as a result, has had to pitch some of this spring at less than full ability.

by nms on May 3, 2009 9:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

White at 89?

I dont think I’ve seen him throw a fastball at 89 since late in a start freshman year when he was pretty worn down.

Saying White’s FB is 89-94 is like saying Hasheem Thabeet is 6’11 to 7’1

by nms on May 3, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

white

I was being conservative. I’ve only seen him on tv a couple of times, most recnelty i saw him at 92-94. I realize other reports have him higher than that.

MLB draft report had him at 89-94.

Stat-wise his numbers are very very good though not as dominant as some of the others, granted college stats are hard in interpret.

by John Sickels on May 4, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How much does the difference matter?

Assuming for the moment that it is 92-94, does that significantly change your opinion of him, or do you remain cautiously optimistic?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on May 4, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not sure yet

I’m not sure yet. I need to look at more video of him. His performance numbers are solid but aren’t quite matching up to the glowing scouting reports yet.

by John Sickels on May 4, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

didn't realize storen was draft-eligible

thought he was a true freshman last year. interesting

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on May 3, 2009 10:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep

Draft eligible true sophomore. 21 years old.
Uncommon, but you’ll eligible true sophs every now and then.
Arkansas Zach Cox will be a high-profile eligible true soph next year.

What is weirder is Clemson’s Chris Dwyer being an eligible TRUE FRESHMAN. Kid is a 21 year old freshman (if only my freshman roommate was 21). His parents kept him in prep school two extra years or something. Go figure, darn yankees.

by nms on May 4, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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