Well, it's been nearly two months into 2009, and I think I can safely make some judgments here about the highly touted prospect. At the beginning of the season, as we were all debating prospects, there was a debate about where Chris Davis would rank if he was still a prospect. During the thread discussion, I, and alskor, pointed out just how alarming Chris Davis' weaknesses were. I pointed out that his strikeout rate was insanely high, that his contact rates were not impressive, and that his walk rate was non existant.
I stated that in his prime he would be a .260 / .320 / .525 ish player and hovering around a .370 wOBA max. I also said that time would tell on whether major league pitching would catch up with him, especially left handers, and that his success would hinge on making these adjustments.
Two months later, everything I predicted has come true. Davis is not making adjustments, he is not improving his contact or strike out rates, and he is being destroyed by left handed pitching. Now, when he DOES hit the ball, it is going a long way. His power was never in question. I did question his glove, but that was an argument from ignorance. I had no idea what he would do at first.
So let's analyze this:
Working season line: .203 / .259 / .456 - .715 OPS - 304 wOBA - 71 strikeouts in 170 PAs (41.7%)
vs lefties: .156 / .224 / .378 - 21 k's in 49 PAs (42.8%)
vs righties: .221 / .273 / .487 - 50 k's in 121 PAs (41.3%)
Chris Davis is, right now, a Two True Outcome guy. He's either striking out or hitting the ball out of the park.
His contact rate is an abysmal 56.9%. Amongst players with 150 PAs or more, that's dead last in the majors.
Now, I will admit that his glove has been a lot more valuable than I thought it would be. He's turned out to be a very very good defensive first baseman. His speed is above average, and he runs the bases well.
But that's it. Chris Davis has a huge hole in his swing, and unless he fixes that and fixes it soon, he's going to be less valuable than Rob Deer. That's pretty bad folks.