Chris Davis revisited
by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 29, 2009 5:12 PM EDT
70 comments
Well, it's been nearly two months into 2009, and I think I can safely make some judgments here about the highly touted prospect. At the beginning of the season, as we were all debating prospects, there was a debate about where Chris Davis would rank if he was still a prospect. During the thread discussion, I, and alskor, pointed out just how alarming Chris Davis' weaknesses were. I pointed out that his strikeout rate was insanely high, that his contact rates were not impressive, and that his walk rate was non existant.
I stated that in his prime he would be a .260 / .320 / .525 ish player and hovering around a .370 wOBA max. I also said that time would tell on whether major league pitching would catch up with him, especially left handers, and that his success would hinge on making these adjustments.
Two months later, everything I predicted has come true. Davis is not making adjustments, he is not improving his contact or strike out rates, and he is being destroyed by left handed pitching. Now, when he DOES hit the ball, it is going a long way. His power was never in question. I did question his glove, but that was an argument from ignorance. I had no idea what he would do at first.
So let's analyze this:
Working season line: .203 / .259 / .456 - .715 OPS - 304 wOBA - 71 strikeouts in 170 PAs (41.7%)
vs lefties: .156 / .224 / .378 - 21 k's in 49 PAs (42.8%)
vs righties: .221 / .273 / .487 - 50 k's in 121 PAs (41.3%)
Chris Davis is, right now, a Two True Outcome guy. He's either striking out or hitting the ball out of the park.
His contact rate is an abysmal 56.9%. Amongst players with 150 PAs or more, that's dead last in the majors.
Now, I will admit that his glove has been a lot more valuable than I thought it would be. He's turned out to be a very very good defensive first baseman. His speed is above average, and he runs the bases well.
But that's it. Chris Davis has a huge hole in his swing, and unless he fixes that and fixes it soon, he's going to be less valuable than Rob Deer. That's pretty bad folks.
2 recs |
70 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Kris Kavis is more like it
Great points, you truly are the man who can say “I told you so”.
My hat is tipped to you!
by FanBall on May 29, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
w/ thanks to TIF for giving me some credit, too!
He’s not bad at all, of course. Well, obviously that’s an atrocious line for a 1B, but he’s still the same player. Tons of raw power. Bad contact hitter (This was the key people were missing). Not a very patient hitter.
by alskor on May 29, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey jules
I know you read this site. Can I have him for Hermida?
by wobatus on May 29, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep
He needs to make adjustments, but then again this wasn’t really all that surprising. He was a rather raw player promoted extremely quickly (perhaps too quickly for detailed scouting reports to circulate around his leagues?) and with a power tool advanced enough to make guys who didn’t know how to pitch to him pay. The initial numbers were generally going to look good and he moved too fast for us to have anything more than “initial numbers” at any level.
I’m doubtful he’ll end up meeting that .260 mark on a consistent basis, but everything else seems spot on. All in all, a guy who still projects as a solid regular with time. And obviously, if he REALLY figures things out at the plate he has the raw potential to be pretty awesome.
by mrkupe on May 29, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he's 23. let's not piss on his grave just yet
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on May 29, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not.
Not at all.
My initial point, way back at the beginning of the season, was that Davis was going to have to make adjustments in order to meet his max potential. So far, he hasn’t, and the results he’s posting are because of that. The onus is still on Davis to change himself. In no way do I think he can’t do that. However, as other posters have pointed out, he was promoted rapidly through the Rangers system. He has been incredibly successful and has never hit a wall. Now that he has, and has done it at the top level of competition, he has an even greater hill to climb.
The league isn’t going to make it easier on Chris Davis, and since he’s always going to be facing the “best” competition, he’s going to have a much tougher time overcoming his weaknesses. Can he do it? Yes, absolutely. But he’s going to need a lot of time and a lot of patience on the part of the Rangers and the Rangers fanbase.
In the meantime, he’s on pace to eclipse the single season strikeout mark, while slugging 40 home runs, and still posting a wOBA below league average. That’s pretty amazing ,actually.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 29, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
You definitely pegged his initial struggles. The things I would remember with Davis is that he’s only been a hitter for a few years and he didn’t get a lot of seasoning in the upper minors. Combine those things with the fact that he’s got a big swing and already had some contact problems and it’s definitely no surprise he’s struggling.
He may get sent back to the minors but I don’t think we will really know who Chris Davis is for a few years. I still think he could have some Carlos Pena in him…
by Dfarth on May 29, 2009 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He needs to learn to walk to be Carlos Pena.
Right now, he’s looking more like a different Pena: Wily Mo.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 29, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many young players adjust after being overmatched by a league for the first time in their careers?
None, that’s how many. Told you so, Chris Davis fans (idiots)!
by PissedMick on May 30, 2009 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to clarify
You are being sarcastic, right?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 31, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
I’m pretty sure that at least SOME young players make adjustments hitting adversity in the majors.
by PissedMick on May 31, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure Davis will do better than this, yes
I just always thought he looked like a .250’s hitter with good power and mediocre walk rates. That’s what he has always looked like he would be… unless you put undue importance in MiLB batting AVGs and ignore translation and components…
by alskor on May 31, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, realistically
He’s got to be better than this. Does anybody think his BABIP will stay this low (.263 with a 20% LD rate)? Eventually, you have to bet that he’ll get his strikeout rate below 40% of his plate appearances as well.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 31, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but he's got a long way to go
…to even reach “decent.” Nevermind the top 5 prospect/stud that some thought was going to happen.
These numbers are obviously excessively bad right now, but they show the same underlying problems with his hitting that you see in his minor league career (when properly translated and analyzed).
by alskor on May 31, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Inevitable Justin Smoak discussion:
The latest issue of BA says: “Smoak … already looks like his bat is too advanced for Double-A.” Any concerns over the fact that he’s been terrible against left-handed pitching so far? If nothing else, Will the Rangers keep him in Frisco for at least a good portion of the season to see if he can iron out the kinks in his right-hadned swing?
by StickRat on May 29, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lefties
He hasn’t faced very many LHP this season so he hasn’t been able to get his timing down from the right side. Also, the Rangers said they won’t promote him until the minor league ASB. He is currently on the 7 day DL.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
by RangerMad on May 31, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool. Hadn’t heard about the promtion date. Struggling against lefties as a minor-league switch hitter is fairly common. There have been questions about his right-handed bat since college, though. That the power is there is an encouraging sign though.
by StickRat on May 31, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right now
his swing looks almost 100% identical to Mike Jacobs. that’s not really a good thing.
by RollingWave on May 30, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It is for Texas
They can probably get a decent arm from Dayton Moore for him, considering the man’s fetish for guys who play the position.
by Fanon on May 30, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's actually just fine
as long as he’s got some patience at the plate.
of which jacobs has more at this point.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on May 30, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like that comp
Except he’s 23 and could very well improve
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 30, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HA
So after two months at the age of 23, your prediction that he will never improve has come true? Brilliant.
by aCone419 on May 30, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
This guy could very well turn out to be a great player for all that we know.
We (all) knew these K rate issues were coming. It’s just a matter of how, when, or if he adjusts now. I wish him the best and am looking forward to seeing his patience at the plate grow stronger each season.
2009; John Lester becomes an ace?
by bodyiq on May 30, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did we all know?
Because some people were predicting 40 HRs+.
Go back and look at the first Chris Davis thread, because the consensus was All Star this year.
by alskor on May 30, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he could hit 40 HRs
anyway. I certainly doubt it, at least this year, but on the rare occasions he does manage to make contact he’s been hitting a long way. He looks terrible right now, any pitcher could strike him out. I think we’re seeing the result of him getting to the majors so quickly. He was unconscious last year.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on May 30, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which thread are you talking about?
That was the big thread this off-season and no one in the whole thread said he was going to be an all star this year, much less was that the consensus.
by aCone419 on May 31, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read the first post?
He is almost a guarantee to hit 30+ homers a year and could even push 40 or 50+.
To which I responded:
I guess chicks do dig the longball
Davis has serious contact issues and looks like he is going to have no defensive value. .265/.315/.490 with 25 HRs is nice, but people are getting a little crazy about him.
He is almost a guarantee to hit 30+ homers a year and could even push 40 or 50+.Based on what…? Groupthink? What people see him doing in their mind’s eye??
CHONE has him at 25. He’s going to be hard pressed to beat that by much since he strikes out about once a game. As a 23 year old rookie he is not a great bet to hit 30+ HRs. Not too many guys do that. Definitely a better fantasy option than real life. I see a poor man’s Adam Dunn for now… and maybe a full Adam Dunn redux in the future.
Then:
I say he maintains a .280 – .290 BA.
Davis is a beast
Im a little tired of the whole K rate question with Davis. Its the only thing people used against him when he was a prospect, cause his numbers were unreal but he was never considered elite . Then he comes up and hits 17 homers in less then half a season and were still on the Krate. He strikes out alot, most big time power hitters do. I agree hes not Albert Pujols but if he were a prospect still how would you rank Travis Snider above em? Davis will hit 35 bombs , 100 rbis and hell k over 100 times . Id take em on my team also.
Avg
Why are people killing his ability to hit for average? If BABIP is a skill for hitters, and most people think so, then why isn’t a .280 average sustainable?
Career minor league BABIP: .354
Career major league BABIP: .353
He’s also been in the .380s for most of the last two years in the minors. Chris Davis had zero problems being an excellent hitter while striking out so much.
He was at 70 last year and posted a .285/.331/.549 line in the majors. If he goes to 69 or 68 he’s still hitting over .260, which is still certainly ‘decent’. Do you think his contact rate is going to go to below 68? Do you have any evidence of why you would expect this (studies, previous players, etc)?
Oh, and where you called me a “pure hater”:
You:
I project
That the 22 year old who hit 40 hrs at AA/AAA/MLB (!) will improve his strikeout rate as he matures.
Me:
So he could, with some luck go from "Jack Cust" to merely "awful"
You:
Hater. He is nowhere near Cust; you have no idea what you are talking about. Pure hater.
K % last year
Cust: 41% (career: 41.2)
Davis: 29.8
Davis in AA: 24%
Davis in AAA: 26%
Others of note
Ryan Howard career: 33.4%
Adam Dunn career: 32.4%
Carlos Pena career: 30.4 (07: 29)
Jim Thome career: 29.8 (his awesome 01: 35.2)
Pat Burrell career: 28 (rookie: 35)
BJ Upton career: 28 (07: 33)
Evan Longoria 08: 27 (Longoria is Cust too!)
Ahem… 2009 K Rates:
Davis: 46.7%
Cust: 26.6% (will go up some – but still hilarious given your comments… Hater.)
and oh yeah, remember this response to me?
what the hell did Chris Davis to you? F*** your girlfriend, daughter, mother and sister?
And now, the crux of it: If Davis was still a prospect would he be top 20? I would say “No.”
by alskor on May 31, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are in desperate need of reading comprehension.
I’m going to copy / paste my post above about someone else pointing out that Davis’ career isn’t over:
My initial point, way back at the beginning of the season, was that Davis was going to have to make adjustments in order to meet his max potential. So far, he hasn’t, and the results he’s posting are because of that. The onus is still on Davis to change himself. In no way do I think he can’t do that. However, as other posters have pointed out, he was promoted rapidly through the Rangers system. He has been incredibly successful and has never hit a wall. Now that he has, and has done it at the top level of competition, he has an even greater hill to climb.
The league isn’t going to make it easier on Chris Davis, and since he’s always going to be facing the "best" competition, he’s going to have a much tougher time overcoming his weaknesses. Can he do it? Yes, absolutely. But he’s going to need a lot of time and a lot of patience on the part of the Rangers and the Rangers fanbase.
In the meantime, he’s on pace to eclipse the single season strikeout mark, while slugging 40 home runs, and still posting a wOBA below league average. That’s pretty amazing ,actually.
This time, take the two minutes necessary to read it. Then take as much time as you need to understand it. But please, for the love of tacos, understand it. After that, never strawman me again.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 30, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reading just fine.
I stated that in his prime he would be a .260 / .320 / .525 ish player and hovering around a .370 wOBA max. I also said that time would tell on whether major league pitching would catch up with him, especially left handers, and that his success would hinge on making these adjustments.
Two months later, everything I predicted has come true.
I remember the debate we had this off-season. No one was claiming that Davis didn’t have weaknesses. This post is incredibly premature.
My initial point, way back at the beginning of the season, was that Davis was going to have to make adjustments in order to meet his max potential.
This was not the point at issue this off-season. There were a number of disagreements, including the potentially unsustainable nature of his 08 k-rate, whether or not he had improved as he ascended the minors, what weight to give his minor league performance vs. his major league performance, how likely he was to improve on his rookie peripherals… But at no point did anyone (well, maybe someone, but not anyone heavily involved in the discussion) say “Chris Davis does not need to make adjustments.”
by aCone419 on May 31, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, so Ill go one farther
He’s not EVER going to be the player some thought he was and they should see that now. What he’s doing now is much more consistent with his translated minor league numbers than last year ever was.
He’s not a .290 hitter and no amount of adjustments are going to be made to turn him into one. He’s not a good contact hitter and he doesnt walk enough. TIF’s projection above seems pretty good – and that is a pretty valuable player.
I dont want to put undue significance on a couple months – but these last two are correcting for everyone putting undue significance on the previous two (as well as minor league batting averages). He has massive raw power, but he’s just not that great a hitter. He’s not selective enough and its been clear in his components all along that he is not a good contact hitter and he doesnt walk enough. I dont see him ever ranking among the top half of 1B in the AL – not that it will be an issue with Smoak coming soon. He’s pretty good, but not the stud some people thought.
You also questioned whether Davis or Travis Snider had better contact skills, fyi.
Just as a refresher:
My position
His K-rate is not that worrisome. It is obviously high, but not crazy high. He showed improvement in that area in the minors. I’ve yet to see any statistical justification for worrying more about his K’s than the other top prospects mentioned above.
Also, alskor is a hater.
by aCone419 on Jan 21, 2009 9:28 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions 0 recs
Here’s my position
Chris Davis is a very good prospect/player but is being overrated by many. 30-35 HRs is his upside in 2009 with around 25 more reasonable – which is still really good – because of his issues making contact. His contact skills are being overrated a good bit. He’s most likely to hit .260-270 in MLB – though he will still be a very good player with that AVG. People who are predicting him to hit .290-300 are mistaken and overreacting to a SSS rookie year, as his components give no indication he will be able to hit for that high an AVG. Davis will still be a very good MLB player despite his contact issues.
by alskor on Jan 21, 2009 10:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions 1 recs
by alskor on May 31, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you really want to have this whole conversation again?
The context of my quotes actually matter. His k-rate prior to this year was not out of line with other top prospects, and no one ever offered any reason why his was more worrisome than theirs. That he has been awful so far this year doesn’t change those facts.
And I gave you a thumps up on your take there so…
You also questioned whether Davis or Travis Snider had better contact skills, fyi.
And…? Prior to this year, which is a HUGE regression across the board for Davis, Snider has the worse K-rate. And it isn’t like Snider has been especially lighting it up.
by aCone419 on May 31, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You still misunderstood me with the "never improve" comment.
I never said that, yet you stated I did. And, yes, everything I’ve predicted has come true so far. His contact rates and strike out rates are holding him back. They will continue to do so until he makes adjustments.
I remember the debate we had this off-season. No one was claiming that Davis didn’t have weaknesses. This post is incredibly premature.
It’s not premature. I waited for 2 months specifically so I could have a large enough sample size. Naturally, I’ll keep an eye on things as the rest of the year comes out.
This was not the point at issue this off-season.
It was mine. I’m still making it now.
There were a number of disagreements, including the potentially unsustainable nature of his 08 k-rate, whether or not he had improved as he ascended the minors, what weight to give his minor league performance vs. his major league performance, how likely he was to improve on his rookie peripherals…
Which was tied directly to the “adjustments” conversation. The opposing side was claiming that he’d been improving at every level, and I pointed out there was no reason to believe that. I was the one making the point that his major league peripherals were of greater weight than his minor league ones, which, again, tied into my initial point that he’d have to make adjustments and improve at the highest level of competition. Something that was going to be very difficult for him.
I also pointed out the concern over whether he’d develop a serious platoon split. He has.
All of my points go together into one argument: Chris Davis was only going to be a top prospect if he could fix his problems. Never once have I said he “can’t” do it. I did say that he hasn’t done it so far. And now it’s biting him in the backside. It’s time for Davis to adjust or he’s going to continue down the road of Jeff Francoeur.
But at no point did anyone (well, maybe someone, but not anyone heavily involved in the discussion) say "Chris Davis does not need to make adjustments."
Minimizing the red flags, downplaying the weaknesses…. perhaps not explicitly did anybody say that, because that would be stupid. That didn’t stop people from aiming too high on his projection.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 31, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
It was mine. I’m still making it now.
No. I argued with you for a protracted period and this was never at issue. From the original thread, I said:
And I obviously grant that if Davis maintains the exact BB and K ratios he showed in the Majors this year, he will be hindered in the long haul. That is not the point being argued.
Frankly, what has happened this year makes your orginal position (“he will stagnate or fall back as he is unlikely to improve Ks”) irrelevant because the condition of your prediction has gone in the complete opposite direction. His K numbers are way worse than they have been at any point in his career, and not even his strongest critics claimed that would happen. Saying you “called it” is not accurate.
His K-numbers prior to this year were no more worrisome than other top prospects his age, but now they are abhorrent. AND it has only been two months. You might as well start threads about how “you told us so” about Travis Snider and Jay Bruce since they have also been pretty crappy. This whole thread is just wrong-headed.
by aCone419 on May 31, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
What is going on with Davis is, to a large extent, due to the forseeable problems that already existed and could be discerned from his properly translated minor league performance.
That’s the whole point. This was forseeable. Not to the full extent it is happening – obviously some of this is luck/slump snowballing issues. Still, he has shown exactly the problems TIF and I predicted he would. His contact rates are a major issue, just as they were in the minors despite lucky high AVGs. His K rate is a huge problem, just as it was in the minors. With those two problems he can’t bring his plus plus power tool to bear.
To act like this is just some other rookie slump is BS. These are the exact problems that were predicted with Davis. This isnt just some rookie slump and that will be shown to be true over the coming years. He WILL bounce back to a large extent, of course. As I said, a lot of this is rookie adjustment and slump related. BUT these problems will persist to some extent. I still see a guy who will hit .260’s, .250’s with very good power numbers but who doesnt walk enough to be a really good 1B option. In his bad years he will be very bad because when his hits arent falling he isnt providing much other than an occasional HR… and those HR numbers will be tempered by his inability to consistently make solid contact and draw walks.
Paul Thomas had it right. He looks very similar to Mike Jacobs. When the hits are falling he will put up some good years, but he’s nothing special.
by alskor on May 31, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jacobs
Mike Jacobs never showed the power that Davis is showing until he turned 27. That Davis could hit for this much power at 22 and 23 suggests that he could become one of the best power hitters in the game. If he reduces his strike out rate to even what it was in the majors last year, there’s no reason to think that he can’t be a Ryan Howard type hitter – one of the best hitting 1B in the game.
That being said, he still has to prove he can reduce his strike out rate that far
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 31, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw then and still see little reason to believe he will drop his strikeout rate that much
He’s kind of a hacker and one who doesnt make a lot of contact. That’s the guy he’s always been, its just been disguised by lucky batting averages.
He is not like Ryan Howard. This is the difference between Chris Davis and those types of hitters he’s constantly compared to: Davis doesnt walk that much. Howard walks more than twice as often as Davis. This speaks a tremendous amount to their pitch recognition. Howard is swinging for the fences alot and so he strikes out a lot, but walks a lot and lays off pitches out of the zone. Davis is swinging for the fences alot and so he strikes out a lot, but doesnt walk that much and can’t lay off pitches out of the zone. HUGE difference.
Swing percentage at pitches out of the strike zone:
Davis: 37% (7th highest in baseball)
Howard: 26%
This is the problem. Davis is only superficially similar to the players he is constantly compared to. He is not your prototypical High K rate, High Walk rate, Lots of HRs hitter. Davis’s strike zone recognition is not and has never been that good. This would be more evident if it werent for his artificially high minor league batting averages.
by alskor on May 31, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Que?
You see little reason he will drop his k-rate to his career numbers? Really? He is obviously really struggling, but to say there is no real chance for improvement seems strange to me.
At Davis’ age, Howard spent the whole year at A+. We can review this discussion in two years or so. Two crappy months for a 23 year old in his first full season isn’t exactly the end game here.
If the problem here is that you can’t find any good comps (young players with crappy BB:K who went on to successful careers), then let me give you a few: Jose Canseco, Rickie Sexson, Sammy Sosa, Matt Williams, Juan Gonzalez, Tony Clark, Dave Parker, George Foster, Jim Rice, Frank Howard.
Now if Davis continues to K in half his at-bats, then all comps go out the window because we can all agree he will be awful.
As I said, a lot of this is rookie adjustment and slump related.
If you really think this, then you should agree this thread is premature. Even if you are correct about Davis having fatal flaws, that has not been shown by his performance this year.
by aCone419 on Jun 1, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
THIS is what I said:
I saw then and still see little reason to believe he will drop his strikeout rate that much
As I said, a lot of this is rookie adjustment and slump related. BUT these problems will persist to some extent.
by alskor on Jun 1, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OldProspects spoke of his strikeouts returning to previous levels. You said you don’t see them dropping that much. I’m apologize for any misunderstanding.
by aCone419 on Jun 1, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
His outside the zone swing percentage is poor, but it is at basically the same level as last year. It is true however that he’d need to improve on that to reach his potential.
What is more notable (to me at least) is his inside the zone contact percentage (60.4%) which is by far the worst in the league (next is Reynolds at 69.2%), an which has dropped off significantly from last year (79.1%), when it was still low but in line with a number of other sluggers.
That is to say, that he is missing a whole quarter of the strikes he hit last year. To me, that sounds more like something has gone terribly wrong with his swing mechanics, rather than a a consequence of his subpar plate discipline.
by aCone419 on Jun 1, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's because he was LUCKY lasy year!
Its a skill, making contact in the strikezone. It is not LUCK. Chris Davis is terrible at making contact! He’s always been terrible at making contact! That’s my whole point! That was my whole point last year!
He’s still swinging at everything and missing most of it. Last year he uncharacteristically got lucky a little bit and so he had a higher AVG that youd predict. He has never been good at making contact.
by alskor on Jun 1, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To explain
He was always a bad contact hitter all through the minors. He’s been a terrible contact hitter in 09.
The two months in 08 that seemed to convince you he’s a better hitter than he is – THOSE are the aberration. Everything else is a body of evidence clearly showing a guy who is not the player you seem to think he is.
by alskor on Jun 1, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are making assumptions
I’m not basing my stance on him on his major league numbers. I am doing it based on his minor league numbers and scouting reports. That he debuted well in the majors is only a plus.
His minor league K rates were bad, but not astronomical like they are this year. And they improved as he ascended (you can go back to the original thread for this discussion; no need to rehash it). I see no basis for your statement that this is a continuation of what he did in the minors.
I don’t think you understand the implication of the numbers I posted above. 60.4% is a historically awful number. They’ve only been tracking it since 2002, but there is no one even particularly close to that number for a decent sample, not even world class air conditioners like Wily Mo Pena. The worst of the worst is usually around 70-77%. If this was his true talent level, as you are saying, it would be inconceivable for him to “luck” into the kind of production he’s shown over the previous couple years.
I don’t even understand how a player is supposed to “luck” into hitting a third (!) more of the strikes they swing at. How would that even work.
by aCone419 on Jun 1, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Illustration
The difference between Davis’ Z-contact in 2008 and 2009 (60.4% v. 79.1%) is greater than the difference between the career marks of Adam Dunn and Ichiro (79.9% v 94.1%).
by aCone419 on Jun 1, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What Im saying is:
-NOT that he will continue being this bad or continue at any of those rates
-That what he has done to date illustrates the underlying problems with his bat, and is good evidence of why I thought his ceiling wasnt as high as most.
by alskor on Jun 1, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I'm saying:
The magnitude of drop off indicates that his struggles this year are caused by something new.
by aCone419 on Jun 1, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Better competition.
Better scouting reports. Not that hard to figure out.
The minors was a pretty easy ride for him seeing as how the competition is incredibly suspect and scouting reports aren’t as informative. Hitting the stuffing out of 88mph fastballs thrown by pitchers with poor command and control is pretty easy for a guy with power as insane as his. And yet, he still managed to strike out an alarming number of times with few walks.
It’s pretty easy to understand that at a level where the average fastball is around 90mph, sliders, curveballs, and changeups are all thrown with much greater skill. Tack on the superior scouting, stat, and data analysis, and there you go. They’ve found a hole in his swing, and they’re exploiting the heck out of it.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 1, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His strike rate was not alarming in the minors
Just wasn’t. Sorry. You are wrong. This is pretty much the only point we’ve been arguing and you have given no reason to change my mind. And frankly, your argument that “Minors doesn’t matter” is antithetical to any reasonable analysis of prospects.
And the strike zone data does not support the argument that nothing has changed. The variance is too severe to be a normal fluctuation.
by aCone419 on Jun 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His strikeout rates were very alarming
when combined with s***y walk rates. This is what I mean by “misinterpreting his minor league numbers.” His MiLB numbers screamed “I dont have the kind of approach that will translate well to MLB!” Youve just chosen to ignore this and keep ignoring it.
Basically, youre sticking to your guns and saying no amount of terrible play by Chris Davis could have changed your mind to this point. I admire your tenacity, but your faith in him is misplaced. The body of evidence suggesting Chris Davis is the guy TIF and I said he was continues to grow. I wonder at what point you will be convinced to adjust your expectations downward accordingly, and what it would take to do it…
by alskor on Jun 2, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a) K/BB and k-rates are different beasts, and TIF has been harping forever on the latter, thus why I am talking about them. I would agree that the former is more important.
b) While poor, there is nothing damning about a .39 BB/K rate for a 21/22 year in AA/AAA. That’s better than Jay Bruce at those levels and about the same as Travis Snider there as well, but I don’t see you shitting all over them, even though they are also struggling mightily. Adam Jones had a worse BB/K at those levels, but he seems to be doing just fine now.
It was worse at A+, but then again, my whole point was that he improved as he ascended, which is a very good sign.
You keep projecting obstinance onto me, but it seems to me that it is you two who are refusing to even consider the possibility that your original opinions were wrong. I’ve have presented plenty of evidence to support my claims, but have been shown very little by you all. No matter how many times you say “His #s meant he was doomed!!!!”, I won’t believe you if you can’t present actual evidence this is the case.
by aCone419 on Jun 3, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You keep fighting a strawman and swinging this around...
Who said there was anything “damning” about his minor league numbers? Again… I’m not arguing he’s a bust or that he sucks! I have never said his numbers mean he was doomed or anything of the sort! Maybe “doomed” to not be a .300 hitter…
All I’ve ever maintained is that his minor league rates indicate a guy who will hit closer to .250 w/30 HRs than the .290 w/40+ HRs that people in that original thread were seeing. That’s always been my entire point. I have never argued that he wont be a good MLB player! I dont know why you keep doing this.
by alskor on Jun 3, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who said there was anything "damning" about his minor league numbers?
I was merely rebutting this:
His MiLB numbers screamed "I dont have the kind of approach that will translate well to MLB!"
If not “damning” then I assume you at least mean “outrageously bad, out of the ordinary, and something that should significantly affect his future projections for the worse.” I disagree for the reasons explained above, which you have not addressed.
All I’ve ever maintained is that his minor league rates indicate a guy who will hit closer to .250 w/30 HRs than the .290 w/40+ HRs that people in that original thread were seeing.
And my point was that these same arguments could be applied to Jay Bruce, Travis Snider, Adam Jones… guys who had similar or worse K:BB in the upper minors. Maybe you agree that all these guys will be .250 hitters.
I would agree with those projections for the early part of his career, but I don’t see why you assume his K:BB will remain stagnant for the entirety of it.
You don’t seem to want to address any of the specific points I’ve made in response to your claims, instead you just keep telling me I don’t understand and speaking in generalities.
by aCone419 on Jun 4, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes they were.
Just because you didn’t find them alarming doesn’t mean they weren’t alarming.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 2, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any evidence that his minor league k-rates foretell doom would be great. You’ve offered none, though I’ve asked repeatedly.
by aCone419 on Jun 3, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Counter question
What evidence would it take to prove your beliefs wrong?
If you can’t answer that, then this argument is moot. Those who can’t be convinced of anything other than what they believe are pointless to argue with.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 4, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any?
My current belief is that Davis’ minor league k-rates were an area of concern worthy of monitoring, but as they were improvable (and did improve, though you analyzed these improvements away, but that’s a different argument we’ve already done), they did not override the good areas of his game.
To change my mind, you could point to me a reliable study that shows that players of his minor league profile rarely succeed. You could point me to some comparable players of that profile, and explain how their k-rates led to their downfall. You could show me that their have been no successful players with his profile (though that wouldn’t be as copacetic, it would at least be something).
Anything really. All you’ve buttressed your argument was “history shows….” without any supporting detail.
by aCone419 on Jun 4, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im drawing logical conclusions
I still say youre misinterpreting his minor league performance.
Looking at the totality of Chris Davis career as a baseball player, he is not as selective as you make him out to be. The K rates are bad, but obviously wont stay astronomical. We’re now arguing about how far he bounces back, not whether he bounces back. Im saying .250-.270 AVGs are the norm. I believe your position is they will be higher. I see no basis for that position given his lack of walks and poor K rates. My position is his HR numbers will never reach the numbers people projected outside of a couple career years at most, because its exceptionally hard to hit 40 HRs when youre striking out 23% of the time and only walking 6% of the time.
Let me put it this way: Ignore just how bad he has been so far. Im not saying his 2009 numbers prove he’s a bust or that he sucks. Im not saying he’s a bust or that he sucks AT ALL! Im saying if we look past that and look at his components we can see he is having HUGE contact problems and not walking much, just as I predicted. I think we can now look back at his minor league career and major league debut in this light and I say it makes my prediction of the lesser projections for Chris Davis much more likely than what you were predicting.
I don’t even understand how a player is supposed to "luck" into hitting a third (!) more of the strikes they swing at. How would that even work.
You dont understand how a player in a two month sample can make lucky contact enough extra times to raise his AVG 30 lucky points or so…?
by alskor on Jun 1, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still say youre misinterpreting his minor league performance.
Based on…? He was excellent in the minor leagues and his K/PA was better at higher levels (AA/AAA vs. A-/A+). Those are just facts.
he is not as selective as you make him out to be
How selective have I made him out to be? I’ve said his K-rate prior to this year was not crippling, but he would need to improve his K:BB from his debut to continue his success.
Im saying .250-.270 AVGs are the norm. I believe your position is they will be higher.
I’ve never said that. That’s pretty much where I expected him to be this year. I think they could go higher as he ages, but I’m not going to say they will be. He could still be a huge slugger hitting .270 a year.
My position is his HR numbers will never reach the numbers people projected outside of a couple career years at most, because its exceptionally hard to hit 40 HRs when youre striking out 23% of the time and only walking 6% of the time.
This is what I am talking about, with the premature self-congratulation. He is 23! Why are you assuming his K:BB rate will stagnate at his age 22? That makes no sense to me. K:BB rates tend to improve as players age. He probably won’t ever walk 100 times a year, but he doesn’t need to do that to reach an acceptable level of plate discipline.
You dont understand how a player in a two month sample can make lucky contact enough extra times to raise his AVG 30 lucky points or so…?
We are NOT taking about 30 points of average. Look at the numbers. There is zero chance than Dunn will “luck into” making more contact with balls in the zone than Ichiro for half a season, and that would be a SMALLER amount of change than Davis has seen. There is much more to that variance than “luck.”
by aCone419 on Jun 1, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're taking this way too seriously
In 2007, Davis’ strikeout rate was 27.8. In 2008, it was 25.1. These numbers are bad, but sufficiently low that a person with as much power as Chris Davis, can be a highly productive hitter, whether or not he draws too many walks. This year, his K rate is 43.3%. I really don’t see how you can say that his sub-par contact rate in the past predicted the horrid contact rate this year.
We should also note that beyond simply having excellent power, there was and is reason to believe that he’ll be a Jack Cust-like hitter in the sense of having unusually high BABIPs because he hits the ball so hard. (Just to clarify, at no point in that sentence did I say there was reason to believe that he’d walk as much as Cust does). His BABIP in the minors has steadily been well above .300. This year, despite hitting 20% of balls for line-drives, his BABIP has been .263. In other words, there is a chance (albeit a small one), that even if he keeps on striking out this often, his OPS will still be well in the mainstream of AL 1Bmen. I do, however, agree, that unless he can bring his Ks down dramatically, that will probably not happen. Considering he’s still only 23, and the records we have of his minor league performance, I think there’s a decent chance of him reverting to his usual weak but not horrific plate control.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jun 1, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not following your reasoning here at all
Cust doesnt hit for unusually high BABIPs at all. His career is .330 and the last two years he’s .311 and .310.
This year, his K rate is 43.3%. I really don’t see how you can say that his sub-par contact rate in the past predicted the horrid contact rate this year.
As I said many times, a lot of that is poor luck, slump issus and rookie issues… but the underlying problems are still there. It should be eminently clear at this point that he is not the contact hitter his fans in that thread thought he was. Despite what they say now, they were hanging their hat on his minor league AVGs and his good debut.
by alskor on Jun 1, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.330 is low?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jun 1, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummmm....
I was under the impression that the average BABIP in the majors is in the .290-.300. So far this year, the average BABIP in the majors is about .305. I’m pretty sure that .330 is an awfully high BABIP
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jun 2, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Davis the next Francoeur?
Their problems seem to be entirely opposite. Francoeur has actually improved his plate discipline to the point that his K rate would be excellent if he was maintaining the power that he showed when he first made the majors. Unfortunately, his power has simply disappeared. Davis, on the other hand, has no issue hitting the ball hard – his problem is hitting the ball at all.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 31, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, you are correct.
I didn’t mean their skill sets were similar, just that their careers would take similar turns. Francoeur came up with much hooplah and hype and won the Atlanta fanbase over with a stellar first season, but he had weaknesses and other team’s exploited them until Francoeur has become a “what could have been”.
By this point, I think Francoeur is a head case. His struggles have gotten to him and ruined his confidence. Davis hasn’t hit that yet, but if he keeps up like this, he could very well be mentally taxed.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 1, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be entirely honest
I dealt Davis before this year at the top of his value in a fantasy league where strikeouts are counted – and suffice it to say, I’m not asking for that deal back. In real baseball, though, I’m reasonably optimistic about Davis. He still hits for a ton of power and could be a reasonably productive hitter once more balls fall in. If he can reduce his Ks, then he’ll be a very nice hitter.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jun 1, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
