More Right-Handers for the 2009 Draft
More Right-handers from the 2009 Draft
Here's a look at more right-handers who should go early in the 2009 draft, sometime in the second half of the first round, supplemental, or early second round types. They are listed alphabetically.
There is still a huge amount of uncertainty right now about where things will fall. I have will have more thoughts about the draft on Sunday, and will do a mock first round for Rotowire this coming week.
Eric Arnett, Indiana: STRENGTHS: Excellent 2009 performance with velocity boosted well into the 90s, good slider, durable. WEAKNESES: Needs to improve changeup; sometimes guys who improve quickly implode quickly as well. PROJECTION: Should go in the later half of the first round; won't get past supplemental round. He is likely the fall-back option for a lot of teams if the guy they really want gets picked too soon.
Victor Black, Dallas Baptist: STRENGTHS: Can hit 95 MPH; good slider, made strides with changeup, dominating performances this spring. WEAKNESSES: Was ineffective in previous seasons due to command problems; stamina could be an issue; like Arnett, he's made a lot of progress in a short time but needs to prove he can sustain it. PROJECTION: supplemental round; could be interesting for home-state Rangers at 44.
Brody Colvin, Louisiana HS: STRENGTHS: Projectable, already throws 90-94 and should get faster; good curveball; athletic. WEAKNESSES: High school pitcher risk; secondary pitches are raw; command is inconsistent. PROJECTION: Someone who likes raw arms will take him. . .would fit well with the Angels in the supplemental round with their extra picks.
Sam Dyson, South Carolina: STRENGTHS: Can hit 96-97 MPH, one of the hardest throwers in the draft; promising curveball. WEAKNESSES: Very erratic college performance; has labrum surgery on his resume; fastball is straight; more thrower than pitcher. PROJECTION: Will be attractive to an upside-oriented team in the supplemental round, or possibly late in the first. Yankees at 29 might be a good fit.
Garret Gould, Kansas HS: STRENGTHS: 90-94 MPH fastball, excellent curveball, athletic and projectable, relatively fresh arm. WEAKNESSES: General high school pitcher risk; needs to polish his mechanics; might not be cheap to get away from Wichita State. PROJECTION: I have no direct evidence to support this, but if his bonus demands are reasonable I think he could end up going a lot higher than people currently expect, perhaps as high as the middle of the first round.
Kyle Heckathorn, Kennesaw State: STRENGTHS: Huge guy at 6-6 but has some athleticism, has hit 98-99 and works well in the mid-90s, strong slider. WEAKNESSES: Hasn't dominated college as much as you'd expect given his stuff; will need to improve changeup to remain a starter. PROJECTION: His stock has been up-and-down this spring, but he won't get past the top half of the supplemental round and could still go in the 20-25 range.
Matt Hobgood, California HS: STRENGTHS: Fastball at 90-95 MPH; good curveball, also has a slider and changeup that are better than most high schoolers. WEAKNESSES: Maxed-out physically at 6-4, 245; command is inconsistent, general high school pitcher risk. PROJECTION: This is another guy I can see the Angels, with their multiple picks, going for in the supplemental round.
Chad Jenkins, Kennesaw State: STRENGTHS: 90-94 MPH sinker; very good slider, good changeup, sharp command, outpitched teammate Heckathorn. WEAKNESSES: Soft body means he has to work hard to stay in shape; more of a very solid inning-eater type than a potential rotation ace. PROJECTION: Jenkins looks like a solid and safe choice to me for later in the first round, though some rumors have him going as high as the Top Ten.
Mike Leake, Arizona State: STRENGTHS: Outstanding college performance against tough competition; excellent control, decent 88-93 MPH fastball, good slider, good cutter, good changeup, tremendous competitive instincts, fine athlete. WEAKNESSES: Not a big guy at 6-0, 180; has a lot of mileage on his arm. PROJECTION: He is very polished and will rise quickly through the minors, making him a safe and rational choice for many clubs, especially anyone who needs rapid pitching help (Oakland? Cleveland?) as early as the middle of the first round.
Keyvius Sampson: Florida HS: STRENGTHS: Athleticism, 90-93 MPH fastball, curveball and changeup show potential. WEAKNESSES: Mechanics and command need work, general high school pitcher risk, Florida State commitment could raise price tag, velocity is inconsistent, smallish at 6-1, 180.. PROJECTION: Has been mentioned anywhere from the supplemental round into the third or fourth round, but if he falls too far college will beckon. My guess: second round.
Robert Stock, Southern Cal: STRENGTHS: 90-93 MPH sinking fastball, hard curveball, improving changeup, strong strikeout rate; good tools and athleticism overall, fresh arm. WEAKNESSES: he prefers catching to pitching, but had a bad year at the plate; needs polish and has an erratic track record; he's just 19 years old and could be expensive to sign. PROJECTION: he has as much natural talent as some of the definite first-rounders, but there is enough uncertainty about his future to knock him down a round or two.
Drew Storen, Stanford: STRENGTHS: Excellent season as Stanford's closer; good combination of stuff (92-95 MPH) and command, good slider; strong K/IP and K/BB ratios, fine overall athlete. WEAKNESSES: Stanford sophomore means he won't likely be cheap; there has been talk of making him a starter, which would slow his development but increase his future value. PROJECTION: mid-to-late first round, early supplemental at worst. Both performance-oriented and projection-oriented teams should be interested.
Alex Wilson, Texas A&M: STRENGTHS: Excellent K/IP and K/BB ratios in college; can hit 95 MPH; strong slider; strong command. WEAKNESSES: Velocity tailed off in second half of season; had Tommy John in 2007; probably more a reliever than a starter in pro ball; history of significant bonus demands. PROJECTION: he looked like a sure first-rounder at one point, but now looks more like a supplemental or early second round pick. Might fit nicely for the Padres, who look a lot at stats, at 52.
Madison Younginer, South Carolina HS: STRENGTHS: Athletic and projectable; can hit 94-96 MPH; shows promise with his slider. WEAKNESSES: Has been used as a reliever, so scouts haven't gotten to seen enough of him; normal high school pitcher risk; rough mechanics and general rawness; Clemson commitment could make him expensive if drafted too low. PROJECTION: Someone who likes raw arms should be interested in the second round; would fit well with Braves, Giants, or Dodgers based on past drafts.
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11 comments
Comments
I went to college with Victor Black
I figured he’d be a high round draft pick.
by Triple347 on May 29, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of all the right-handers, who has the best changeup?
Leake?
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
by battlekow on May 29, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Leake is 2nd for me
Strasburg gets good velo differential, fade and depth. I’d rate it the best righty change and close to plus right now. Leake is solid ML average for me and a bit behind Stras.
by Stotle on May 29, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Evaluating
Hi John,
Thanks for the write-ups. It would be helpful, I think, to know which of these players you’ve seen and how much is your take after speaking with others or researching the draft class. Personally, I think it’s useful in determining how much weight to give the info.
I prefer when I’m getting someone’s personal observations and it’s someone who’s opinion I trust. I’m least impressed with “consensus” opinions, since I think they can spring from an offhand remark and snowball (when it comes to sources bouncing amateur write-ups off each other).
Ultimately, info is info and I appreciate you as a source. I’d just appreciate a little more transparency for the sake of comparing my own personal evaluations. Apologies if you already have this listed and I missed it.
-nick
by Stotle on May 29, 2009 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
depends
It depends on the player. I haven’t seen the high schoolers except on video. The college guys…..I’ve seen most of the Big 12 guys and some others in person, others video or TV. Word of mouth. Talking with industry people who have seen guys I haven’t seen. Scouting reports from BA and/or PG. For college guys I do some statistical analysis as well.
by John Sickels on May 30, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Chad Jenkins not a potential ace?
From how you described him, he sounds a lot better now than a lot of the others, the only one with 3 good pitches. Is it because he doesnt throw 95+?
I’m not saying it’s one way or the other, just curious.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on May 30, 2009 12:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
jenkins
b/c there are so few guys that anyone would actually say have ace potential. that’s why when i talk about prospects i usually use the phrase “top of the rotation potential.” when i say that i usually mean that they have the stuff to be a #2, and if everything works out right they could be an ace.
jenkins is a rare case b/c he is a sinkerball pitcher. i think it is so hard to project a guy like that to be an ace b/c there just aren’t many that are. not many people think of sinkerball guys as aces b/c you usually think of big strike out totals when you think of an ace pitcher, but roy halladay and brandon webb have shown you can dominate with a sinker. i guess what i’m trying to say is you project him as a #3 for now with the caveat that he could be better than that but its hard to tell just how dominant the sinker will be.
by fewgoodcards on May 30, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
very good post
i hate how the term potential ace is thrown out all the time. how many true aces are in the game at one particular time? 10? 15? it’s just so hard to achieve that level of success.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on May 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not necessarily saying he has to be an "ace"...
But I dont see why he has less potential than some of the other guys that were up there, based on John’s observations.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on May 31, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ace
i don’t think he said any of those other guys would be aces either
by fewgoodcards on May 31, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
















