Top Right-Handers in 2009 Draft
Looking at the top right-handers in the '09 draft, we have Stephen Strasburg and everyone else. This may sound odd, but I'm not going to talk about Strasburg much. He's really excellent, but from an analystical perspective I find the next guys more interesting, since they have actual flaws you can point to.
As I see it, after Strasburg the best guys in the right-handed group are (alphabetically) Aaron Crow, Kyle Gibson, Shelby Miller, Tanner Scheppers, Jacob Turner, Zack Wheeler, and Alex White. Then I see a division in quality between that group and the next segment, guys like Mike Leake, Chad Jenkins, or Kyle Heckathorn.
Focusing on the first group, here is how I'm currently thinking about each one.
Aaron Crow, Fort Worth:: STRENGTHS: Plus sinking fastball, plus slider, great college numbers with strong command, relatively polished, should be ready soon. WEAKNESSES: Changeup? Some scouts worry about his mechanics and durability.
Kyle Gibson, Missouri: STRENGTHS: Solid fastball, good slider, good changeup, excellent control, strong college numbers, good size, high level experience. WEAKNESSES: Doesn't have consistent plus velocity on the heater. Perhaps more of a number three starter than a future ace.
Shelby Miller, Texas HS: STRENGTHS: 90-95 MPH fastball with movement, good size, good curve, good athlete. WEAKNESSES: High school pitcher with the extra risk that entails, needs better command of changeup and curveball (though this is normal for his age).
Tanner Scheppers, St. Paul: STRENGTHS: Outstanding stuff when healthy, big-time fastball, strong curve, very good athlete, pitched great at Fresno State, reportedly healthy now. WEAKNESSES: Shoudler problem from last year could easily recur; command has been an issue at times.
Jacob Turner, Missouri HS: STRENGTHS: 90-96 MPH fastball, better secondary pitches than Miller, good athlete. WEAKNESSES: Extra risk of high school pitcher, high price tag with Scott Boras/North Carolina factor, command can be erratic.
Zack Wheeler, Georgia HS: STRENGTHS: 90-95 MPH fastball, good breaking ball, athletic and projectable, pitched against good competition in high school, perhaps has lower price tag than Miller and Turner. WEAKNESSES: Extra risk of high school pitcher. Needs a changeup.
Alex White, North Carolina: STRENGTHS: Can hit 96 MPH though usually 2-4 MPH below that, good slider and splitter, athletic, intelligent, still has some projection. WEAKNESSES: Command comes and goes, hasn't dominated quite as much as expected with his kind of stuff.
My Current Ranking. Right now I have them ranked personally like this: Crow, Gibson, White, Scheppers, Turner, Wheeler, Miller. I tend to like guys with good command (the Twins fan in me) and slightly prefer Gibson's pitchability to White's longer-term potential, though I think Crow has a good amount of both and will be ready quicker. Scheppers is someone I loved in college, but the shoulder thing worries me, clean health report or not, and I might end up dropping him down a bit further. The high school guys all seem pretty close to me.
How do you like them?
NOTE: The original poll was missing Jacob Turner; I've redone the poll so you might have to vote again.
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13 comments
Comments
Scheppers
Dominant stuff ftw
Obviously there are injury concerns but the same can be said for any pitcher.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on May 26, 2009 6:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jacob Turner!
(my vote apparently doesn’t count) :-(
by pffriberg on May 26, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No James Paxton?
I was interested to hear a little about him, because Law ranked him #3 overall on ESPN’s Draft Top 100, and he’s flying under the radar despite Boras.
by RedSoxFaithful on May 26, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm surprised...
law had him so high… paxton is coughing up homerun balls in the SEC at a rate of a bomb every 7 innings… granted he’s only thrown 77 IP, but still, it’s a flag in my book….
although now that i think about it, i don’t know anything about kentucky’s home field
by gorilla_baller on May 27, 2009 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
other
Mike Leake
i really love this guy as a prospect.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on May 26, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Surprised he wasn't on there
Has been dominating this year and should be a mid-first round guy. Probably does not have big time upside, however.
churchofbaseball.com
by MJMars on May 27, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crow
He was great last year, he’s great this year and he’s fourth on my board as Tigers draft director. Honorable mention goes to Miller- his mechanics are reportedly pretty good, which is what I’m looking for in a HS pitching prospect.
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 26, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Vote
I went with Crow…Nats made a big mistake last year not signing this kid. A very close second is a local product from the STL area in Turner. This kid is a legit HS pitcher for sure. If he makes it out of the Top 10 I would be floured…and someone will pay the price tag.
by JDizzidy on May 26, 2009 9:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Where is Matzek?
Voted Crow, but Tyler Matzek could be a Top 5 pick, I think. Probably the best secondary stuff of the HS class, no?
by ArthurBryant on May 26, 2009 11:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Righthanders, gotcha
This is why Purke isn’t there either. Doh.
by ArthurBryant on May 26, 2009 11:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Have to go with Gibson
His fastball is still a plus pitch because of the sink and his very good command of it. His stuff is not as electric as White or Scheppers, but he has plus pitches and has shown to be more durable and commanding them significantly better. Good chance at being a 2 starter.
churchofbaseball.com
by MJMars on May 27, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
John
Any chance you can squeeze Ryan Berry into your next set of RHP? He started off great, then got injured, but has looked good since returning and I’m curious what you think of him.
by mymrbig on May 27, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs











