And so the FMART era has begun
Fernando is getting the start tonight in RF. John's stance on FMart and how the Mets have rushed him has been well documented over the past couple years, and I would have to agree with it. Personally, I think he definitely needed to stay down for a few more months, though this seems like Minaya's last stand (amidst reports of him being on the way out if the Mets don't make the post season), and given Martinez' awesome May, it makes the move easier to swallow.
Bring on the uproar
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58 comments
Comments
Wow
even though I could see it coming, I’m shocked it happened
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 26, 2009 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The sensationalized post regarding a call up?
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on May 26, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
most hyped non top 10 prospect ever?
hes already got nicknames such as fernandomania and the king! he looks like a young abreu to me. that is a very good thing.
by bravitos5122 on May 26, 2009 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
huh?
The King? Fernadomania is about Fernando Valenzuela… never heard these
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 26, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Abreu?
I really don’t understand these Abreu comps. The most notable thing about Bobby Abreu is his patience. Fernando is never going to be that patient. It’s like, “Athletic Latin lefty slugger”, and the natural comp is Abreu. They’re really not very similar.
I think my comp of an early-blooming Garret Anderson is much better.
by Fanon on May 27, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I think it comes from the fact that PECOTA had Abreu as Fernando’s top comp. I agree its not a great one, Abreu was making his Double-A debut at age 20 and had already flashed the good walk rate.
Though I Think saying Fernando is “never going to be that patient” is an overstatement. Its hard to keep your BB% up against competition that much more advanced than you are. I know Moneyball says Walking isn’t something you can learn, but a lot of their examples didn’t exactly turn out to be that strong. Besides, there’s always [insert cliche about Jose Reyes’s plate discipline improvement here]
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say he's never going to be patient
I said he’s never going to be that patient, as in, as patient as Abreu. If Fernando somehow has a career OBP over .400, it’s going to be because his career batting average is around .325, not because he walks 100 times a year.
by Fanon on May 27, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
I misinterpreted, apologies, I certainly think 100 walks a year is beyond a stretch.
The Minor League Translations at BP have Fernando’s current Peak Translation at .301 / .364 / .590, which I think is a pretty good snapshot of what his ultimate upside is.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Omar is reaching
stupid move, I can see F-Mart striking out a ton. I guess with no other reliable talent in the minors…. Omar is probably making a mistake on this one
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on May 26, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
disagree
Why not give the kid a shot - A healthy outfield right now for the Mets without F-Mart is -- Tatis Pagan Sheffield. Seriously. Oh, but the Mets need Tatis at first.
FMart probably brings more defensive value than Sheffield, but Shef has to play with Reyes, Church and Beltran (out for the time being).
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 26, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dk why the strikethrough happened
and I forgot to write Delgado is out too
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 26, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
There’s a lot of reaction to this move, but really, what’s the downside? So he doesn’t hit, he goes back to Buffalo with a sense of what big league baseball looks like firsthand. It can’t be that much worse than the .272 / .328 / .352 Church was hitting, and this is the only way you might actually get some offensive upside for the time being without sacrificing any defense, considering the other options are Pagan and Reed. And even if Fernando doesn’t do any better than Church was, at least it gives Church a chance to get healthy so he can get back to being the doubles machine mediocre hitter he’d been throughout his career.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
And it can’t hurt to have him around the great hitting minds of Sheffield, Wright, and Beltran for a couple weeks.
Also, while Murphy may not be performing, I do think his Fernando witnessing his work ethic might be a good thing.
by Fanon on May 27, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Definitely agreed on both counts. I understand the massive knee-jerk reaction to assume all this Fernando business is unwise, we’re trained for it with guys so young and so rushed, but in this case, it just seems like there’s very little to lose and plenty to gain.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Again, while Murphy may be rather bad at the moment, he seems to know a hell of a lot about hitting, helping out more seasoned guys in figuring out their swings. I’m not sure if he’s the guy I’d tell Fernando to follow around, but I’d at least consider it.
by Fanon on May 27, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely
I liked the way Ron Darling described him, a “technical” hitter. He doesn’t have much in the tools sense, he’s probably below average for a MLBer “tools wise,” but he is a cerebral hitter who’e in the process of learning what it takes to make adjustments at the highest level. Even if he doesn’t ultimately succeed, you know he’s going to work his butt off to give himself the best shot he can.
Also, I think the big name you mentioned initially was Sheffield. I’ve heard quite a number of Mets talk about how great its been having him around just to talk hitting with, and everytime the SNY camera catches him in the dugout, it always seems like he’s talking hitting with someone, usually someone younger and less experienced like Murphy.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
Given the injuries, I don’t think it is a bad move, and sending him back down will be fine too. He is in the organization and doing ok at AAA, so why not?
But Murph’s “hustle” didn’t translate to Martinez last night. Didn’t run out a dropped pop up.
Meddler was there. Way to cheer them home, dude. Meds, I don’t think the Mets HOBAR rate is sustainable. HOme Runs on BAlls Reviewed.
by wobatus on May 28, 2009 5:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
someone may as well warm up the “THEY SENT FMART BACK to AAA” thread..soon
by Rupert Pupkin on May 26, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
While I do agree he is being rushed
The Mets do need an outfielder. Honestly, watching Angel Pagan in RF is terrible.
The lineup is the worst I have seen it since 2003 (maybe be 2004) when Shane Spencer was batting cleanup. Castillo is terrible and has one of the worst approach to hitting I have seen since Joe McEwing, and the catchers/Tatis/Murphy have all been strugling. With Reyes on the DL and Ramon “I Cant hit or field” Martinez at short, this lineup is embaressing. At least Fernando makes it worth watchiing and, who knows, maybe he can provide a spark for this team.
And I guess being one of the leaders in the IL in extra base hits and having his striekouts significantly reduced the last month are pretty good reasons for a call up.
#269
by mrmetaa on May 26, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Minaya is terrible about building depth, and about rushing prospects, but the injuries are ridiculous right now, and they have to play somebody with a chance to hit.
by aap212 on May 26, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is how people need to view this.
I very much doubt Minaya wanted to call him up. But the Mets are missing almost their entire starting outfield plus their first baseman. They’ve lost a LOT of pop from the lineup. The Mets HAVE some outfield depth but not a whole lot of pop from those outfielders. I doubt Fernando stays up too long, possible just long enough for Beltran to rest up the bone bruise he has in his knee. I’d say, unless Fernando hits like gangbusters, he’ll be back in the minors in a week or so.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 26, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure how much I agree with this “Minaya is terrible at building depth” argument….
I mean, how many teams have quality depth when you get down to your 3rd string shortstop (Or any other premium defensive position)? At that point it’s inevitably going to be some career minor leaguer in probably 90% of the cases around the league.
by adropofvenom on May 27, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless
The Mets are riddled with injuries right now, but their “depth” (or lack thereof) is completely exposed. Guys who were supposed to be everyday or part time outfielders are now infielders. Before Fernando you were getting fairly regular play from fringey, borderline replacement level types in the outfield like Reed and Pagan. And now a 20 year old rookie whose still trying to figure out the concept of “ball four” is your second or third best outfielder in the organization (just because I think bringing him up is a good idea for the moment, that doesn’t mean I’m happy about the process that brought us to this point)?
The only reason the Mets have been competently able to get away with this is because Doc Gooden went to Gary Sheffield and said “give it one more shot and go with my old team, screw the Phillies”.
Also, don’t forget, they’ve got career minor leaguers at two positions right now, partly because Jerry missed his flight back from the honeymoon with Omir Santos. They’ve also got two #5 starters (Hernandez, Redding) and no real #2. And for the time being, they’re average at best at five of the everyday positions (C, 1B, 2B, SS, RF).
They do have quite a few quality bullpen arms though. What’s that? Putz’s FIP is what now? 4.03? I guess it could be worse, I mean we didn’t give up anything significant to get him right? What’s that? Mike Carp is doing what now in Triple-A? .297 / .411 / .547? Good thing we don’t need a first baseman. DOH! (disclaimer: I absolutely would have made this trade, but for the moment, it don’t look too great).
Overall though, my opinion of Omar: Solid talent evaluator, horrible problem solver. How many times can you DFA Nelson Figueroa in a season? Over/Under at this point has to be at least 4.5. And I’m sorry, getting your primary feedback from the sandwich line at Mama’s of Corona just isn’t going to cut it. He’s pretty dull when it comes to minor roster moves, and he spends more time fixing the previous year’s problems than he does worrying about the ones that are obviously upcoming.
Fact is, there is zero depth in the high minors for this team. By my count, they have (or had) five reasonably legit prospects in Double-A or Triple-A (Martinez, Niese, Gee, Thole, Tejada) and two of them aren’t even of legal drinking age yet. I guess you could throw Nick Evans’ hat into that ring, but he’s a platoon bat at best who’s pretty much limited to 1B and LF, and his approach seems to have gone from bad to non-existent this season.
The Mets are hanging together by a thread right now, but for the time being, that’s okay, so long as they can get healthy by the time they next play the Phillies, as that will mark a drastic change in the quality of opposition they’ll face over the following weeks.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OF
Pagan is only on the 25 man because of injury. Reed is the 5th outfielder. You can’t blame Omar for them getting a lot of playing time. They’re playing because Church, Delgado, and Beltran are all injured.
by Lunkwill Fook on May 27, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but
I think Omar needs to be held accountable for the team’s situation. Ollie Perez three years? For realz? Relying on a 37 year old first baseman to be your everyday cleanup hitter and one of your primary run producers with no reasonable backup plan? Again, for realz? Picking your corner outfielders from a group of Gary Sheffield, Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, and Ryan Church? I say a third time, for realz? Jose Coronado was supposed to be your Triple-A Shortstop and 19 year old Ruben Tejada his Double-A counterpart? C’mon, sing along with me: For realz?
He gets credit for picking up Sheffield, but what GM wouldn’t have done that for 400k? Maybe Steve Phillips? I don’t know if he’s even that dumb. Doc Gooden is as much the reason Sheffield is on this team as Omar is. But he did close the deal, so for that, I will give him credit.
I get that there are lots of injuries here, and the problem isn’t so much that Pagan/Reed are on the roster, its that they’ve been playing almost daily, and unless Fernando hits while Beltran comes back, they shall continue to do so. And its not like Ryan Church was anything special before landing on the DL. .352 SLG and .080 ISO for an everyday corner outfielder on a contending team? One more time: For realz?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“The Mets are riddled with injuries right now, but their "depth" (or lack thereof) is completely exposed. Guys who were supposed to be everyday or part time outfielders are now infielders. Before Fernando you were getting fairly regular play from fringey, borderline replacement level types in the outfield like Reed and Pagan. And now a 20 year old rookie whose still trying to figure out the concept of "ball four" is your second or third best outfielder in the organization (just because I think bringing him up is a good idea for the moment, that doesn’t mean I’m happy about the process that brought us to this point)?”
The Mets, right now, are missing 5 Projected Starters (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Church, and Schneider) and a key bench player (Alex Cora). Of course bench guys are going to have to take on bigger roles, and AAA players as well. It’s just the nature of the situation when you have that many injuries. What would any other team look like if you randomly subtract 5 of their starters and a key backup?
“The only reason the Mets have been competently able to get away with this is because Doc Gooden went to Gary Sheffield and said "give it one more shot and go with my old team, screw the Phillies".”
So you refuse to give Omar Minaya credit for scooping him off the scrap heap…..when oh by the way, about 27 different teams had zero level of interest in him thinking that he was finished or a problem child? And Sheffield signed with the Mets because they offered him the most playing time and David Wright put in a recruiting phone call. I’m sure the Doc factor helped some, but it doesn’t seem like as big of a motivator as you’re making it out to be.
“Also, don’t forget, they’ve got career minor leaguers at two positions right now, partly because Jerry missed his flight back from the honeymoon with Omir Santos.
Jerry might end the “Honeymoon” with Omir Santos when he stops producing. Hey, we all know he’s a career minor leaguer, but he’s been getting big hits, has been getting them in big spots, and has played a very good defense behind the plate. Ride it out while it lasts…
“They do have quite a few quality bullpen arms though. What’s that? Putz’s FIP is what now? 4.03? I guess it could be worse, I mean we didn’t give up anything significant to get him right? What’s that? Mike Carp is doing what now in Triple-A? .297 / .411 / .547? Good thing we don’t need a first baseman. DOH! (disclaimer: I absolutely would have made this trade, but for the moment, it don’t look too great).”
Putz has been dealing with nagging injuries all year….not exactly fair to chalk him up like he’s some mediocre pitcher…
Oh, and by the way, Carp still has HUGE platoon splits. To paraphrase, Dennis Green, he is who we thought he was….someone whose career upside is Mike Jacobs due to an inability to play defense nor hit Lefties at a competent level. Not exactly someone we’ll ever miss.
“Overall though, my opinion of Omar: Solid talent evaluator, horrible problem solver. How many times can you DFA Nelson Figueroa in a season? Over/Under at this point has to be at least 4.5. And I’m sorry, getting your primary feedback from the sandwich line at Mama’s of Corona just isn’t going to cut it. He’s pretty dull when it comes to minor roster moves, and he spends more time fixing the previous year’s problems than he does worrying about the ones that are obviously upcoming.”
The Mets haven’t had a “problem”, they’ve had a catastrophe of injuries. Again, 5/8 of their opening day lineup is currently not playing. How the heck do you expect a GM to overcome that?
Nelson Figueroa is a soft-tossing ROOGY, if he was any good he wouldn’t be allowed to pass through waivers so many times, yet teams keep letting him clear unclaimed.
“Fact is, there is zero depth in the high minors for this team. By my count, they have (or had) five reasonably legit prospects in Double-A or Triple-A (Martinez, Niese, Gee, Thole, Tejada) and two of them aren’t even of legal drinking age yet. I guess you could throw Nick Evans’ hat into that ring, but he’s a platoon bat at best who’s pretty much limited to 1B and LF, and his approach seems to have gone from bad to non-existent this season.”
A tradeoff of getting Johan --ing Santana, among other veterans, and being left crap to work with by the previous regime (Thank you Jim Duquette!). In some ways, I’m actually excited about this crop, because we’re finally beginning to see Omar Minaya’s prospects trickle their way through the system, guys that he and his crew signed/drafted and developed. Mike Pelfrey, Fernando Martinez, Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell all fit that mold. That’ll be the true test of him as a general manager, how his prospects do at the next level. And of course, you choose to omit that the Mets have one of the more promising A+ and A ball teams we’ve seen in quite some time.
I just don’t think much of your criticisms are quite fair. Take pretty much any team, look at their opening day lineup, randomly subtract 5 players from it and a key reserve, and do they look much better then the Mets currently do? I doubt it.
by adropofvenom on May 27, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aside from the rest of your post...
Mike Jacobs is a TERRIBLE comp for Carp.
by PissedMick on May 27, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I only meant it in the sense that they both were ex-Mets 1B farmhands with platoon-player splits who were limited defensively. Offensively, they are different players, but the ceiling is limited on that kind of player regardless if he draws walks or not.
by adropofvenom on May 27, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you said his upside is Mike Jacobs...
when Carp at 23 is probably already a better player than Mike Jacobs is. It’s also a very small sample size, but Carp has a 8:9 BB:K against lefties in 34 AB this year. You don’t write off a lefty hitter’s ability vs LHPs at 22.
by PissedMick on May 29, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know that, the reason I mentioned him was they had 3 things in common
- 1B in Mets system
- Platoon-Player splits
- Awful Defense
The 2nd and 3rd things will always keep his value to a club relatively low. The trade was still a no-brainer, even Meddler said as much below.
by adropofvenom on May 27, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I mean, some of the things I said were meant as jokes more than legitimate criticisms (The Doc and Sheff thing most notably, Omar does deserve credit for that for sure, absolute bargain of the offseason). And of course other teams are going to hurt if they lose five or six players to injury. But its not like this was entirely unexpected. There really was no viable backup plan for Delgado. Aside from the last minute Sheff signing, the team had zero corner outfielders with a track record better than Ryan Church. The two most viable/versatile middle infielders in the high minors were Jose Coronado and Ruben Tejada (I guess you could add Malo and Reyes, but that doesn’t change the point I’m making one bit). This is just not good team concept/roster construction/whatever you want to call it, and you’re putting yourself in a position to get exposed by injury, as the team is right now.
The Mets, right now, are missing 5 Projected Starters (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Church, and Schneider) and a key bench player (Alex Cora). Of course bench guys are going to have to take on bigger roles, and AAA players as well. It’s just the nature of the situation when you have that many injuries. What would any other team look like if you randomly subtract 5 of their starters and a key backup?
Delgado is 37 years old, and was expected to be a major run producer. Injury was a clear risk here, and there were plenty of cheap options to help protect yourself from that risk on the FA market from Pat Burrell to Adam Dunn to Raul Ibanez. They may not be first baseman, but that brings us to the second regular I’m actually complaining about, Ryan Church, the “underachiever” of the century. .080 ISO is just not going to cut it as a big league corner outfielder, so while forming a specific backup plan for first base might not have been realistic, Omar could have at least tried to add a run producer at a corner spot in the outfield. Brian Schneider? Sure, maybe he was a regular, in name only. He was average at best and a huge injury risk to boot.
Jerry might end the "Honeymoon" with Omir Santos when he stops producing. Hey, we all know he’s a career minor leaguer, but he’s been getting big hits, has been getting them in big spots, and has played a very good defense behind the plate. Ride it out while it lasts…
Well, seeing as how Castro has been at least as good defensively and can actually be expected to maintain his offensive level of production, a big HR at Fenway isn’t enough to persuade me that Omir should be playing more than 40% of the time. He’s playing considerably more than that. I’ll take it as long as he keeps hitting, but before his big night at Fenway, he’d spent the previous two weeks tailing off considerably.
Putz has been dealing with nagging injuries all year….not exactly fair to chalk him up like he’s some mediocre pitcher…
Oh, and by the way, Carp still has HUGE platoon splits. To paraphrase, Dennis Green, he is who we thought he was….someone whose career upside is Mike Jacobs due to an inability to play defense nor hit Lefties at a competent level. Not exactly someone we’ll ever miss.
Yeah this one I was just kind of venting, I don’t actually think there’s a problem here, though it would be nice to still have Carp right now, and I can’t help but wonder if there was just a bit more due diligence Omar and his crew could have done before completing this trade. Its not like Putz was the picture of health last year. But like I said, I’d still have absolutely done this trade assuming I found no outstanding medical issues in the offseason.
The Mets haven’t had a "problem", they’ve had a catastrophe of injuries. Again, 5/8 of their opening day lineup is currently not playing. How the heck do you expect a GM to overcome that?
My statement about Omar’s problem solving abilities was more a blanket statement than an indictment of this particular situation. He needed to get a SS who could field a bit sooner, but otherwise, I wouldn’t expect any GM to really handle what’s happened here differently. Its the lack of anticipation that bothers me, and the fact that he spent the entire offseason worrying about the bullpen and virtually nothing else until signing Sheff right before opening day. Just like last offseason, when he spent the entire winter waiting to acquire Johan Santana, and essentially got lucky that Twins either overplayed their hand or the Yankees and Sox were just never that interested. Was Johan a great pickup? Of course, but there were more issues than filling one rotation spot, and Omar neglected them for the sake of fixing the issue that was a problem in 2007, failing to anticipate any additional problems that might arise in 2008 (ahem, bullpen).
While Omar does deserve some credit for signing Sheff and picking him off the scrap heap, I see it as a comparable to what happened with Jose Valentin in 2006. A guy who was thrust into a role that no one would have dreamed he could handle, and managed to do so very admirably. So while Omar did a great job finding hidden talent, he didn’t make this move as a solution to a significant problem, he did it as a bench booster and for the sake of flexibility, a la Valentin. Both wound up being solutions to significant problems, but at the same time, neither one had even recently played the positions they wound up being asked to man full time.
Nelson Figueroa is a soft-tossing ROOGY, if he was any good he wouldn’t be allowed to pass through waivers so many times, yet teams keep letting him clear unclaimed.
Maybe, but he’s also the best sixth starter the Mets have had since before 2006. Every time Figueroa gets called up and tossed aside, I think back to this guy to remind me that handling depth isn’t something to be treated lightly.
A tradeoff of getting Johan —ing Santana, among other veterans, and being left crap to work with by the previous regime (Thank you Jim Duquette!). In some ways, I’m actually excited about this crop, because we’re finally beginning to see Omar Minaya’s prospects trickle their way through the system, guys that he and his crew signed/drafted and developed. Mike Pelfrey, Fernando Martinez, Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell all fit that mold. That’ll be the true test of him as a general manager, how his prospects do at the next level. And of course, you choose to omit that the Mets have one of the more promising A+ and A ball teams we’ve seen in quite some time.
That’s fair, and I don’t disagree with your sentiment, but my point is why can’t you have a Wilson Valdez waiting? Why did that take a week to get done? There were no prospects to block. Tejada and Havens can and probably should have been sharing the middle infield in St. Lucie anyway. If Jonathan Malo wasn’t a real answer, shouldn’t you have learned that and prepared for it after that extra long look in spring training?
And then with the other premium defensive position, Omar’s done the complete opposite and is still managing to screw himself. I understand that Castro and Schneider are brittle, but do you really need to keep Javier Valentin, Robinson Cancel, and Omir Santos stashed? This seems, yet again, like a lack of foresight. If Josh Thole learns to play defense adequately, he could be a very reasonable and very cheap big league catcher as soon as next year. He’s torn up Double-A, and there are loads of veteran pitchers (and catchers) in Buffalo for him to learn from. In this situation, where you actually have a prospect, and you have a prospect at a position of need in the near future, and you’re pushing payroll limits to begin with, you do whatever you can to give Mr. Thole a chance to earn himself a shot at the job. The longer he stays in Double-A, the higher the chance that you’re going to have to go out and (over)spend $5-15 million on an aging veteran replacement. If you put him in Triple-A, at least he’s in an ideal environment to speed up his defensive progress.
I just don’t think much of your criticisms are quite fair. Take pretty much any team, look at their opening day lineup, randomly subtract 5 players from it and a key reserve, and do they look much better then the Mets currently do? I doubt it.
Yes, I was being a bit unreasonable for the sake of style, but I’ve defended Omar for a long time now. Through the rotation mess that was 2007, culminating with Tom Glavine’s ultimate Mets performance. Through the bullpen mess that was 2008, and his lack of ability to thoroughly address the problem in the short term. Now, after watching him once again fix last year’s problems while loading himself up with new risks and while using conversations he had waiting for bagels as his primary talking point, I’m just done defending him, he’s totally fair game for many of these criticisms, even if I overstate them sometimes for the sake of humor.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“But its not like this was entirely unexpected. There really was no viable backup plan for Delgado. Aside from the last minute Sheff signing, the team had zero corner outfielders with a track record better than Ryan Church. The two most viable/versatile middle infielders in the high minors were Jose Coronado and Ruben Tejada (I guess you could add Malo and Reyes, but that doesn’t change the point I’m making one bit). This is just not good team concept/roster construction/whatever you want to call it, and you’re putting yourself in a position to get exposed by injury, as the team is right now.”
- I would say Fernando Tatis was the backup plan at 1B, who had an .853 OPS last year in 273 AB, which is excellent for a bench player. Daniel Murphy really only started to play there because of the long-term nature of Delgado’s injury, his lack of progress (And perhaps some regression) in the OF, and Sheffield’s re-emergence Offensively.
- I guess the lack of middle infield depth in the minors is fair, to the extent that Coronado and Tejada are both horribly rushed prospects and not ML ready, but that’s why they went and spent 2 million dollars on Alex Cora, who was supposed to fill that role in case something happened. Unfortunately, he got hurt after a couple games himself. The issue isn’t that Reyes got hurt, it’s that Reyes AND the insurance policy got hurt.
I just think your expectations are unrealistic man, you want a great lineup, a great bench, and great prospects ready to fill in at every position on a rainy day. Well, sure, that sounds great, but what team has that kind of luxury?
Boston’s the “model franchise” now, right? Well, their best 3rd string Shortstop was the Omir Santos of Shortstops, also known as Nick Green. Nobody has that kind of ideal setting.
“Delgado is 37 years old, and was expected to be a major run producer. Injury was a clear risk here, and there were plenty of cheap options to help protect yourself from that risk on the FA market from Pat Burrell to Adam Dunn to Raul Ibanez. They may not be first baseman, but that brings us to the second regular I’m actually complaining about, Ryan Church, the "underachiever" of the century. .080 ISO is just not going to cut it as a big league corner outfielder, so while forming a specific backup plan for first base might not have been realistic, Omar could have at least tried to add a run producer at a corner spot in the outfield. Brian Schneider? Sure, maybe he was a regular, in name only. He was average at best and a huge injury risk to boot.”
A) Gary Sheffield (Someone Omar Minaya did acquire), when he has played, has produced excellently. Maybe there was some luck involved there, In fact, I’m sure there was, but he DID get the player you were looking for, he just didn’t get WHO you were looking for.
B) Like it or not, there are some budget concerns when you are putting the team togeather. I’m sure they would have loved to run out and sign all these guys, but when you only have X amount of money to spend and more pressing needs elsewheres, you do what you can.
PS: Abreu’s ISO is in Ryan Church territory as well.
“Well, seeing as how Castro has been at least as good defensively and can actually be expected to maintain his offensive level of production, a big HR at Fenway isn’t enough to persuade me that Omir should be playing more than 40% of the time. He’s playing considerably more than that. I’ll take it as long as he keeps hitting, but before his big night at Fenway, he’d spent the previous two weeks tailing off considerably.”
I’m sorry man, but Castro isn’t on par with Santos defensively in the least. He’s lousy at moving in general, struggles at times to block pretty routine pitches, he calls a decent game, has a decent arm, great in the clubhouse, but he’s a bat first and foremost.
I also wonder if the reason Santos is playing so much has to do with Castro being so horribly out of shape to not be up to the task of physically playing the majority of the time…
“Maybe, but he’s also the best sixth starter the Mets have had since before 2006. Every time Figueroa gets called up and tossed aside, I think back to this guy to remind me that handling depth isn’t something to be treated lightly.”
Probably nitpicking, but Pelfrey was supposed to be our 6th starter last year. El Duque got hurt (Kinda predictable) and forced him into the opening day rotation. This year, I’d take Niese or Redding/Livan as superior 6th starter candidates, Figueroa got the call because it was a spot start and a great matchup for a ROOGY.
“And then with the other premium defensive position, Omar’s done the complete opposite and is still managing to screw himself. I understand that Castro and Schneider are brittle, but do you really need to keep Javier Valentin, Robinson Cancel, and Omir Santos stashed? This seems, yet again, like a lack of foresight. If Josh Thole learns to play defense adequately, he could be a very reasonable and very cheap big league catcher as soon as next year. He’s torn up Double-A, and there are loads of veteran pitchers (and catchers) in Buffalo for him to learn from. In this situation, where you actually have a prospect, and you have a prospect at a position of need in the near future, and you’re pushing payroll limits to begin with, you do whatever you can to give Mr. Thole a chance to earn himself a shot at the job. The longer he stays in Double-A, the higher the chance that you’re going to have to go out and (over)spend $5-15 million on an aging veteran replacement. If you put him in Triple-A, at least he’s in an ideal environment to speed up his defensive progress.”
I like Thole, but his concerns are more Defense related then Offensive related. If they felt he was ready to be in AAA, he would be. You really think they’re holding back his promotion because of Javier Valentin (Who is playing quite often at 1B anyways), and Robinson Cancel? Between the DH, C, and putting Valentin at 1B, there’s plenty of playing time for all 3 of them if they so chose.
by adropofvenom on May 27, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fernando Tatis
Was also you’re platoon partner in LF, a platoon partner for a completely unproven player.
I just got back from Citi, so I’m too exhausted to go through all this now, lol, but its an interesting debate, and please don’t think I mean any of this in disrespect to you. I am whole heartedly enjoying the discussion, and its refreshing to have someone actually go through this and make a respectable case.
I don’t want a “perfect” lineup, I just want you to admit that Omar could have done a significantly better job of risk management. Even if 5 players and 1 backup didn’t go down, there would still be issues here. As much as you seem to feel I’m being overly-critical, I feel like you’re being at least a bit of an apologist. And I don’t feel like you’ve actually addressed my two biggest gripes:
1. The lack of a contigency plan for 1B/LF/RF, aside from Gary Sheffield, who while he was a great pickup, essentially fell into Omar’s lap.
2. The fact that he’s just not a good problem solver, and has a track record of lacking foresight, and focusing almost entirely on the issues of the past rather than the potential issues of the future. Did the bullpen need fixin? Of course, but if the budget was such an issue, then get a little more creative. This team had needs beyond the pen, and short of Sheff’s signing, which again, was basically on opening day, those issues weren’t addressed. If the budget was an issue, then get creative instead of just throwing money at the one problem every boneheaded fan can identify.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 28, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more
You also use the term “catastrophe of injuries”. A lot of times, as sports fans, we like to think injuries are, for the most part, arbitrary. The truth is, at least as often as they are arbitrary, they are not arbitrary. They are predictable, or at least a level of risk is predictable. Though they’ve been healthy recently, even the leg problems of Reyes and Beltran were not completely out of nowhere, nor were they non-risks that were to be simply ignored. Angel Pagan might be an acceptable solution if you had someone at another position to account for some lost offense, again, such as a real corner outfielder. Delgado and Schneider’s risks were exponentially higher, and given the history of concussions and baseball players, Church was a completely wild card health wise. His injuries may not be concussion related, but when dealing with risk, you assume the best but plan for the worst. Not one of these risks was acceptably accounted for, let alone all of them.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jose Reyes has played 150 games in each of the last 4 seasons, you’re reaching back to 2004 for those leg issues, Carlos Beltran has been pretty damn reliable himself as well. Delgado’s only “Injury concern” was that he’s getting up there in Age. These guys haven’t been missing 30+ games a year that you should be acting like they are extremely injury prone players. We’re not talking about Moises Alou here, lets be real.
I mean, it’s possible that any player can get hurt on any given day, but to think it was in any sense predictable that the Mets would be down 5 starters and 1 key reserve at any given point in time seems like stretching the truth a bit.
by adropofvenom on May 27, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying that in itself as predictable
Just that there was a lack or risk assessment, both in the individual cases and overall.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 28, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
If you at all follow someone like Will Carroll, you’ll have heard plenty of noise about how despite their recent durability, there have always remained underlying concerns about Beltran and Reyes’s leg problems, specifically (moreso with Beltran in terms of probability, but moreso with Reyes in terms of the degree of risk, since his game is all about his legs). I’m not saying that there should have been a superstar waiting in the wings to fill in, just that there should have been at least another average, proven run producer type with some kind of track record, instead of just saying screw it, I’ll throw Murphy, Tatis, Sheff, and Church at the wall and see who sticks. Honestly, one of my biggest Omar defenses in the offseason was the Murphy/Tatis/Church situation, claiming that allowing three players to compete for two spots was a good way of finding someone who was ready to over-perform expectations. But when this is also your plan for depth of run production, that’s a problem.
Put another way, the Mets took a lot of flack for relying on an underachiever (Church), a fringe-prospect+small sample size breakout rookie (Murphy) and a veteran journeyman who had been out of the game for quite some time before a successful partial season last year (Tatis) to be reasonable MLB corner outfielders. If you look at the various projections for these players going into the season, none of it was all that encouraging. If you look at PECOTA’s depth chart projection, it was basically a composite of the three players’ projections. My argument was that you can’t simply arbitrarily project playing time in this situation, and that its highly unlikely all three players will play to their mean-level projection. It was more likely that one might underperform, one might overperform, etc, and that playing time would be weighted accordingly based on performance, not projection. But that strength becomes completely dismissed if one of those players also has to fill in at 1B. All of a sudden, the level of production does simply become a composite of all three players’ performance level since all three are playing everyday, instead of being weighted towards the players who perform best. So not only do you lose Delgado, but you lose the advantage of being able to reward performance with playing time and the ability to hide a weak link/links. If Murphy and Tatis hit like crazy and Church did nothing, assuming Delgado was healthy, those two would have played and Church would have eventually seen more and more pine time. But with no Delgado, even though Tatis takes over at 1B, it essentially becomes the underperforming Church who replaces him in the lineup, so not only do you drop off to your replacement at 1B, but to an underperforming player who you had hoped to hide from exposure to too much PT.
Honestly, my love affair with Omar saw the beginning of its end with the Luis Castillo signing. Since then, I’ve been much more wary of heaping praise upon him for building one dominant team in his four year tenure. And this is another part of the issue here. If you’re not automatically below average at 2B because of a bad contract, your risk at other positions can be reduced by having flexibility and/or a higher level of production there.
Omar deserves credit for exactly what he’s done. Taking a $100-150 million payroll and building one decent team (2005), two good but not great teams (2007, 2008), and one one great team (2006). With the financial flexibility he’s had, the awesome bare young core he was handed with Wright and Reyes, and the amount of money he’s sunk into blown costs and bad contracts (Perez, Castillo, Alou, El Duque, Mota, Schoeneweis, and debatably even Pedro), IMO, his grace period is over.
Anyway, I’m tired, off to bed, I’m sure we’ll continue this, and perhaps more importantly to this blog, both follow the young Martinez’s career with enthusiasm. Goodnight.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 28, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry one more lol
We’re not talking about Moises Alou here, lets be real.
This completely misses my point. My point was that there is a degree of risk in every player, and that should be accounted for. If Moises Alou’s degree of risk is 100, maybe Reyes and Beltran are 30s. They’re not 0s, they’re 30s, and when you add up all the various risk factors on the team, there just wasn’t enough depth in place to sustain the majority of negative scenarios. While most teams might not be able to fill in for five players, most could fill in for one or two adequately. IMO, the Mets could not. And that’s not to say the Mets should have been able to replace Reyes individually if he was the only one to go down, but they should have had at least one more established player so that a defensive super-sub like Pagan or Reed would be tolerable as a #8 hitter everyday, not as a #1 or #2 or #5 or #6 hitter.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 28, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish they had signed Dunn, Ibanez and/or Hudson
I really think Wilpon put the breaks on, and they did well getting KRod “cheap” but couldn’t go for, say, Hudson, with all of that money sunk in castillo. And that was an atrocious signing. Albit he has bounced back slightly this year.
The quote in the Vanity Fair madoff article is the Wilpons had hundreds of millions invested with him They were friends since the ‘60s. Even for Fred, 100s of millions ain’t chump change.
by wobatus on May 28, 2009 5:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mets Injury List
DL
Carlos Delgado
Alex Cora
Jose Reyes
Brian Schneider
Ryan Church
Missing a few games
Carlos Beltran
Needless to say, they need a couple bodies. I’m sure this is a short-term callup, regardless of how Fernando does, but I do think he’s up to the task. His Strikeout rate was greatly reduced this past month, his power numbers are finally showing up in full force, and the Mets are getting a break in the schedule right now playing the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Nationals the next dozen or so games.
by adropofvenom on May 26, 2009 7:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Fernando seems like he takes time to adjust and get comfortable at each level. As I said in the other daily thread —
I’m not sure if he’ll be up for good. I think it will have more to do with his defense than his hitting. Church has been dreadful thus far with the bat. If he seems like a plus right fielder that should be enough to have Church and Sheff platoon.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 26, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
the Mets are getting a break in the schedule right now playing the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Nationals the next dozen or so games.
I agree with everything you said, but this is a big piece that’s getting missed amongst the Mets issues right now. This is the part of the schedule they should be using to try and get healthy. The Nats and Marlins are 16th an 15th in the NL in runs allowed, respectively. Now’s the time to get the everyday guys healthy, before you have to go into a stretch that includes the Phillies twice, Yankees twice, Rays, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Orioles. Its also a good time to find out if you might actually have something useful in the short-term with Fernando. If not, oh well, Ryan Church gets a couple weeks off, gets his leg healthy and maybe finds his pop.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ugly strikeout
ugly pitch to swing at in his first at bat
by mjr20 on May 26, 2009 7:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Second AB
RBI Ground Out— smoked that ball right at Johnson
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 26, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
4th AB
Strikeout
Looks like a kid in his MLB debut, swinging at some awful pitches tonight. I guess everybody has one of those days though.
by adropofvenom on May 26, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh
it was timed well i guess. F-mart was hot, the Mets were playing the Nats, nobody else to fill in
He might do well, he might not. It isnt much of an era starter though
by METSMETSMETS on May 26, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's about time
the Mets have let this guy languish in the minors for far too long.
by smoooooth on May 26, 2009 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
guys looks just like Gomez at the plate two years ago
Great tools but doesn’t know how to work the count. He’ll be back in AAA in two weeks or in a trade for a starter. If your whiffing vs. the Nats then he’s going to have a lot of trouble.
by Bravesin07 on May 26, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not even close
Gomez had a disgusting swing.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 26, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you even looked at his stats this season?
Particularly those from May?
by Fanon on May 26, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He looks overmatched
But he’s their best healthy option at this point.
Omar needs to get off his ass and get another bat in that lineup, stat.
by samjjones on May 27, 2009 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's got a week or two
Next four opponents: Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, Nationals.
Following nine opponents: Phillies, Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Cardinals, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers
He should have some deals on the backburner in case he can’t get his regulars healthy by the time the Mets get to that trickier part of the schedule. No need to turn the twin keys just yet though. Regardless, that part of the schedule could be season defining. Its about a month long stretch of 8 out of 9 tough, tough series.
But after that, the Mets get another breather, as their next nine opponents are: Reds, Braves, Nationals, Astros, Rockies, D’Backs, Cardinals (two games), Padres, and D’Backs.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on May 27, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rushed yes, but this probably won't break him
He needs more development time (he’s just starting to show the conversion of tools to skills), but usually the big issue with rushing prospects is the psychological issue of dealing with being so overmatched. Given that FMart has been holding his own against significantly older competition his entire career, he’s probably better prepared than most for getting owned by major league pitching.
by Ophidian on May 27, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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