Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young similar?

by krgrecw on May 25, 2009 10:02 PM EDT Comment 24 comments

On Bill Shanks scout site, two of the popular posters on there are calling me a hypocrite for saying that Delmon Young still has a chance says hes only 23 and at the same time I write Jeff Francoeur off. One of the posters, who post does post in here, says that they are similar hitters. I disagree with him. Delmon Young was the number 1 or 2 prospect in baseball for 2 years. He has a track record in the minors of performing. Those results have not translated at the Major league level yet but he does possess them. Francouer never possessed amazing skills in the minors. Dlemon Young showed a little improvement in 08 over 07. Delmon was a better in the 2nd half of last year vs. the first half. Yes he did lose some power but he raised his bb% and hit%. Delmon Young isn't playing everyday now and as young hitter its hard for him to get into a groove since hes not getting consistent playing time. Francouer has been given ever opportunity to succeed, years of it, but he just isn't getting any better. Now am I being a hypocrite saying that Delmon still has a shot to be a productive player and I don't think Frenchy will or are they just comparing the two so that as Braves fans they want to call attention on higher praised players that are struggling so that Francoeurs career flop doesn't look so bad?

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ehhh

I was about to agree with you , then I checked the stats. (career rate)

Jeff Francouer: 19.5% K 4.6% bb

Delmon Young: 19.6% K 4.4% bb

Delmon have some advantage. but it’s not nearly as big as I thought.

by RollingWave on May 25, 2009 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

to further explain

A. those two guys are only a year apart in age, and both reached the majors very young.

B. I had this perception that Francouer struck out more than Delmon did, but a checkup reveal that in fact they whiff at the same rate… and even walk around the same too.

C. The one advantage for Delmon is that he has continued to hit for a very high BABIP, probably due to his line drive hard swing. so he could at least maintain a OBP that is within the ulcer range. and not the stroke / heart attack range of Francouer.

D. However. Delmon’s power hasn’t developed like we thought . Frenchy have at least been able to take out one from time to time. Delmon’s career high in SLG barely crack the low .400s. He does have some potential there to go up. but at least from a stats point of view, I always feel that if a young player have a very low K rate he have a much better potential to improve dramatically power wise (Because Power tend to have a positive correlation with K rate. if a guy is already King a ton, a increasing in power would likely just put his K rate into unmanagable range. examples of these power for K type of translation is Gary Sheffield and Kerby Puckett. I don’t see Delmon having that kind of chance though. whatever power he improve. it’s not going to be dramatic.

E. Both are corner OF type. and Delmon’s a pretty bad one too. so he’s not really providing value with the glvoe either. unlike say.. Jose Reyes in his first couple of year.

Basically. If gun to a head Delmon still have a better chance of turning into something better. but the chance isn’t nearly as good as some perceive it to be. the combination of low BB rate with a somewhat above average K rate and only modest power isn’t good at all.

At least from my own observation. one of the key signs of wether a guy could suddenly break out dramatically is the K%, if a guy have big power potential but isn’t showing it. then you look at wether he’s trying to make contact over hitting it for power. if he is (doing it succesfully) then he has a good chance of busting out later on. if he isn’t. then it’s not a good sign.

by RollingWave on May 25, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

They seem to be about the same. Anything that happened, Delmon Young helped get the Rays the players they needed for the playoffs, so hes a little more “valuable” than francourer

by JackofAllTrades on May 25, 2009 10:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

French's torid month when he got called up propelled the 2005 Braves to the playoffs, too

Shame when the first month+ of your career is your “peak”.

by mraver on May 27, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Delmon still has a chance to be a star or at least a productive player, I’ve given up all hope on Failcoeur. He needs to be DFA’.

Tommy Hanson 4 ROY

by timmy3 on May 26, 2009 12:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that's nice...

what’s your reasoning?

by PissedMick on May 26, 2009 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you watched Delmon Young lately???

He will be lucky to stay on the roster. The guy has no eye, no patience, gets beat by any fastball over 90, and has a weak over front-loaded wristy swing. He’s like a Fat, Slow, no defensive value version of Juan Pierre.

"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."

by strums on May 26, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe he just needs a change in scenery?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
Scout to KG: On Sandoval: "Man, that fat [expletive]-er can hit."

by knockoutking on May 26, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He does

The Twins are crazy and Gardenhire sucks.

Remember Ortiz on the Twins? He still shakes his head at it – they tried to get him to focus on being an opposite field hitter. Stupid.

by alskor on May 26, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ortiz blossomed in Boston because of the massive stance change

Not because he was trying to hit the ball the other way before….

Also having Manny Ramirez showing him how to use PEDs helps
something the Twins don’t know anything about.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 26, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or...

Ortiz had an OPS+ of 120 his last year in Minnesota. He was in the process of blossoming. The Twins just let him go because they were too busy focusing on what he couldn’t do (play defense) rather than what he could do.

by aap212 on May 26, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has repeatedly said they tried to change his swing and stopped him from pulling the ball

Maybe he just learned how to win in Boston. That’s something the Twins dont seem to know anything about.

by alskor on May 26, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did Manny fail a test I didn't hear about?

by PissedMick on May 26, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i saw a guy with an authentic Francoeur jersey at an Omaha Royals game of all places. that’s gotta be a tad embarrassing to wear. :o

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on May 26, 2009 12:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

Actually really fitting when you think about it…

by hybrid on May 26, 2009 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey!

i think i know where your going with this, and I don’t like it! there’s going to be some serious ass whoopage of that happens.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on May 26, 2009 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

both would be prototypical number 2 hitters if they didn't strike out so much...

now, they’re just mediocre #7 hitters.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 26, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sadly similar paths

Before the season, when I was expressing pessimism about Young on this site, I used Francoeur as a comp, and suggested that despite the physical gifts he once demonstrated, the atrophying skills left his best case scenario as something like Jose Guillen. I still stand by that. Guillen was another raw talent who was kept in the majors prematurely, and took a while and a couple of moves to do anything. Sadly, I think even that might be a touch optimistic now. What’s frightening with Young is that his ISO in the majors has been miniscule, and this year he’s lost much of his ability to make contact, which is all that was keeping him afloat before. Throw in the bad left field defense and it’s pretty hard to be optimistic about the future. Unlike Young, at least Francoeur could probably still get a job selling jeans.

by aap212 on May 26, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs