Premature Rankings Talk: Josh Vitters is a top ______ prospect.
by slamcactus on May 23, 2009 5:50 PM EDT
31 comments
Josh Vitters is the most fascinating story in the minors for me this year. In a normal year, a teenager showing any kind of pop in the Midwest League is enough to put him on the radar and peg him for a huge breakout the following year. Recently, we've seen guys like Carlos Santana, Brandon Wood and Adam Jones enjoy huge seasons following very modest returns in the MWL. We've also seen good but not great power numbers put a good deal of prospects on the top-100 radar for projectability alone.
A lot of top-25 talents have come through the MWL in the past few years, including Moustakas, Travis Snider, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton, and Colby Rasmus, all of whom were teenagers when they were in the league. Vitters' current .ISO of .250 is better than every single player just named.
Obviously, there's a very good chance Vitters doesn't end the season with a .250 ISO. Also obviously, Vitters never, ever takes a walk, which is a problem none of the above-mentioned players had in their tour of the league. He also has a contact rate far superior to what most of the players in the above group did when they were in the MWL. Given his results, he hasn't needed to work on patience, and his coaches have said they don't want to stress the importance of taking walks for a guy who can maintain light-tower power while still making plus contact.
Given all of that, where do you guys think he ranks? I'm asking about a general impression of the tier he's in rather than a specific comparison between Vitters and other prospects.
Discuss.
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Personally...
I’m putting him in the 16-30 range. Players can learn to take a walk, and if the Cubs are smart they’ll start stressing the importance of plate discipline sooner rather than later. On the other hand, the combination of plus contact and light-tower power is incredibly rare. I was tempted to put him in the 6-15 range, but I think that’s a little over-zealous. I want to see him transition to high A before we start talking about him as one of the few elite prospects in the game.
by slamcactus on May 23, 2009 5:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Believe it or not
Taking a walk is excurtiatingly hard to teach
Thats why the Oakland A’s dont (or at least didnt) like to raise hitters unless they’ve demonstrated some good plate discipline at the college level.
Also I think he’s a borderline between 16-30 and 30-50. I’d honestly put him at 30 exactly, at least until I see him at high-A
by METSMETSMETS on May 23, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd...
really like to see some data on walks not being a skill that’s possible to acquire. The general sabremetric truism is that players gain patience with age, but that came out of a different era of baseball number manipulation. About 7-8 years ago BP ran a couple of studies saying BB% in the minor leagues isn’t predictive of BB% moving forward, but it’s not something I’ve seen recent data on.
I guarantee you, however, that there are a lot more players who have learned to walk in the minors without coming in possessing it as an innate skill than there are 19-year-olds who can combine plus contact with a .250 isolated power in the Midwest League.
Generally, it’s tough to knock a guy batting north of .350 who’s combining plus contact with almost unheard of power for someone his age in his league. Right now, Vitters has absolutely no incentive to take more pitches, because he’s hitting everything, and hitting it hard.
by slamcactus on May 23, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On walks
There’s an entire Moneyball piece on it, which is why I referenced the A’s
The A’s centered their entire minor league coaching system around teaching walks.
Yet, homegrown guys like Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada were uneffected, and walked the least on the team while guys like Scott Hatteberg and Dave Justice, who already walked a great amount, were the most beneficial to have
This is also why they preferred proven, college hitters who could walk over raw HS players.
And honestly, Josh Vitters will not be hitting .350 for the rest his career, probably not even by the end of this year. So being able to take a pitch is pretty important. Even Wieters, who hit .350 for an entire season, was able to keep a 10% BB rate. Plus, his power isn’t “unheard of.” Dude’s had 9 HR in 150 ABs, which is phenominal, but could just be the result of some hot streak, just like his .417 BABIP.
In addition, the guy’s 19 years old in the Midwestern League, not, I don’t know, 20 in the International League. He still has about 3 or 4 promotions to go before he’s the real deal. And do you think his 23/3 K/BB rates will make it much past A+? To me, Robinson Cano is his upside at this point. Don’t get caught up by his flashy hot streak. I think he could be the #28-32 prospect in the game right now, so I don’t think he’s crap. But don’t underwhelm his lack of discipline.
by METSMETSMETS on May 23, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
Wieters had 3 years of college ball under his belt . . .Vitters is in his first real campaign of full-season baseball. Clearly the first guy was going to be more advanced skill-wise.
And yes, you’re right, he’s not going to hit .350 over the remainder of his pro career. But it doesn’t change the fact that this guy looks like a potential 70+ contact bat with 65-70 power.
by mrkupe on May 23, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moneyball...
stretched truths and edited selectively to tell a good story. It was a long feature story, not an analytical study. Using that book as evidence of anything at this point is like quoting TINSTAAPP as gospel truth.
I don’t think Vitters’ current BB/K will allow him to become a star. I do think that his scouting profile suggests that he’s more than capable of learning a skill when he starts facing a tougher level of competition. He walked a lot more often than he is now last year in the NWL, though still not often enough. As he’s challenged, I fully expect him to start taking more pitches. Walking in the minor leagues isn’t a prerequisite to becoming a great major leaguer. Robinson Cano is only his ceiling if you go into it believing that he’ll never, ever make any attempt to improve his approach, and the only growth he’s got left to his game is in filling out and adding power. That’s foolish.
by slamcactus on May 24, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
honestly I think that his general lack of plate judgement goes beyond walks. He’ll begin to wave at pitches and make crummy contact.
And also last year he walked 3.5% of the time and now its 2.8%. These are thoroughly crappy numbers, and obviously means that he has trouble with the strike zone. While this may not matter in A ball, as he progresses levels it may be a major setback.
by METSMETSMETS on May 24, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the scouting reports
don’t suggest that. Again, I’m not saying he will or won’t, but the scouting reports suggest a kid with a very solid knowledge of the strike zone.
To that extent, we’ll get a better grasp of how good Vitters is when he gets to Daytona. There’s a slim chance, imo, the Cubs opt to keep him at Peoria all year and jump him to Tennessee (did that with Eric Patterson a few years back, and Brandon Guyer this past year), but my gut feeling (and common sense, imo, due to the age) says he’ll see Daytona.
by toonsterwu on May 24, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Walks
It has been my experience that you need to be able to take a walk as you advance. It is VERY rare for a prospect to show an increase in this area unless they were rushed and/or were very young for their level of competition. I was never a huge believer in Brandon Wood or Delmon Young due to their lack of drawing walks. Jose Reyes is someone who has been able increase his walk rate dramatically, but I don’t like the chances of a power hitter making such an adjustment.
by slurve on May 25, 2009 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wood?
Wood never had a real problem drawing walks . . .he drew 46 in 478 ABs at age 19, 48 in 536 ABs at age 20, 54 in 453 ABs at age 21, and 45 each in the last two years (437 and 395 ABs respectively). Kevin Youkilis he is not, but those are solid figures for a kid moving up a level each year.
His problem is that his swing has always made him look like he’s playing golf rather than baseball.
by mrkupe on May 25, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would need to think about it a bit more to be sure
But 16-30, probably closer to 16 than 30, sounds right. He’s a second-year pro which does put his performance in a slightly different context than the other guys you mentioned, but given the age range we’re talking about the scouting reports tend to be significantly more important than the numbers anyways.
His ability to make contact is awesome. We’ll have to see about the power production . . .not sure if he’s a true slugger in the making or if he’s got 25 HR power with plenty of doubles and just working his competition at the moment. Plate discipline isn’t really something you complain about when the kid is hitting this well, but he needs a promotion to face pitchers who are going to make him work. I’ll admit that I’m a bit worried about the organization he’s in . . .whether it’s coaching or bad luck, Cubs prospects tend to be awful when it comes to strike zone judgment. They’re also not all that hot when it comes to developing their players defensively, which would be the only other possible flaw I can see with Vitters (projects okay at 3B right now, maybe a 1B/corner OF in a few years).
This is all nitpicking though. He’s going to be a very nice player one way or the other.
by mrkupe on May 23, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's...
a second year pro, true, but he was only 17 in his draft year and he’s lost time due to injury, so I don’t think it’s out of line to talk about him in the context of the other 19 year olds who’ve come through the MWL recently.
by slamcactus on May 23, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be interested in the thoughts of the people that voted 6-15.
Just for fun, at the beginning of the season CHONE projected 175 players to be average or better with the bat (taking PF and league into context) over 150 games. Only one of those players had a BB% of 4.50 or lower (Howie Kendrick). None of the players with 7.00% (there were only 17 or 9.7%) or lower were over 8 runs better than average (the only 2 that were over 6 were Cano and Crawford). Now I’m not saying Vitters can’t improve his 2% BB% but damn that leaves a lot to be desired, and a lot of improvement is going to be needed. But hell he is killing the ball lately which is fun to see.
by bigboy1234 on May 23, 2009 6:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As a Cubs fan
(fully acknowledging my biases)
I had mixed thoughts/some doubts about Vitters entering the year and understood why he was a fringe top 50 (not all lists had him as a top 50, iirc). My main concern was power – the Howie Kendrick with a bit more power had me a bit concerned. His recent hot streak has helped allay some fears on the power. The walk rate is certainly disappointing, but it’s worth noting the low K rate and that the scouting reports suggest he has excellent plate coverage/awareness. This isn’t a kid, by most accounts, that doesn’t understand the zone. He understand it but the pitching just hasn’t been good enough to challenge him.
As of now, I think he’s 16-30. I can understand a case for slightly below. I’m hard pressed to buy a case of higher, but that’s me. While he has some overall things to fine tune, I’d like to see him Daytona soon to see how he responds to pitching there. Jovan Rosa has been manning 3rd more since Marquez Smith was bumped up, but Rosa is an average defender at 3rd, at best, and he’s been struggling this year. He can go play first on a fairly regular basis, IMO, as Keedy doesn’t excite me too much, and Keedy can handle some LF if needed.
by toonsterwu on May 23, 2009 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bleah
His mom must be a hacker to have voted 14 times. I’m glad to see some optimistic Cubs’ fans here. Of more interest to me are the two snerts who voted him out of the top 100.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 25, 2009 7:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And just to add insult to injury.
Christian Vitters, Josh’s brother who no one ever really considered a legitimate prospect, is raking in the California league with a line of .333/.348/.824.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on May 23, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Previewing the Top Prospects going into 2010
Jason Heyward
Justin Smoak
Madison Bumgarner
Tim Alderson
Buster Posey
Neftali Feliz
Jarrod Parker
Brett Wallace
These guys are already elite, IMO (Tommy Hanson will undoubtedly get MLB time)
by METSMETSMETS on May 23, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd...
add Carlos Santana and Desmond Jennings to that list. I rate both above Wallace, and if I was building a system, I’d take Santana before Alderson, too. I consider Santana and Posey basically a wash for best catching prospect in the minors not named Wieters.
by slamcactus on May 23, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhmm
Michael Stanton? I have him top 5
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by cwhitman412 on May 23, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly up there no doubt
But in terms of hitters i really think I’d take the afformentioned above him at this point
by METSMETSMETS on May 24, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have Jennings above Stanton,
He’s a more all-around player, though he doesn’t have the 40 homer power of Stanton (if that actually does transition to higher leagues and against better pitching). Frankly, Jennings reminds me of a pre-steroids Barry Bonds. It appears as the game comes so easy to him. Remember, Jennings was being highly touted until last season injury plagued debacle.
Then again, this rating is only if he is completely back and shows resilience from injury.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on May 24, 2009 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Besides Wieters, I think Stanton is at the top of the list of hitters and one of the top 4-5 prospects altogether. Great tools and athleticism, huge power that plays, very young with the intelligence and work ethic to constantly improve . . .what more do you need?
by mrkupe on May 24, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As far as hitters go.
Jennings & Stanton both should be considered. Heyward is a little high, Smoak is definitely top-10, Posey too, Wallace is borderline. Fernando Martinez would also be on the list. Pedro Alvarez? Hosmer had the hype if he gets it together? Moustakas the same?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 24, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts
Having seen Vitters in person, read reports from scouts and coaches, and mulled over his performance thus far, I think 16-30 is the way to go.
Vitters’ power is legitimate. The guy’s been crushing some HRs this season. His swing generates line drives, but he does a very good job of putting the ball in the air with loft and authority. Plus, the guy’s body still has some room to fill out. I can see him as a 35-40 HR guy in his prime if he keeps this up.
Vitters’ defensive questions are settling down. He needs more time at 3B and more coaching, but I think with enough reps and work, he’ll be fine at 3B. I don’t think he’ll be a gold glover, but I think he could be an above average defensive 3B if he worked hard enough at it.
Vitters’ plate discipline is where things get interesting. He hasn’t walked very much. However, he hasn’t struck out very much, either. Vitters’ single best quality is his swing. It’s fast and compact. He gets the bat through the zone with incredible speed; it’s not a long and loopy swing like you tend to see with power hitters. Moreover, he has very good pitch recognition. The guy can identify bad pitches in the zone and make pitchers pay for them. From what I’ve seen and heard, it is rare to see him unnecessarily expand his zone or extend his swing. Since he’s in the MWL, he’s not facing many pitchers who are even halfway decent. In other words, he’s likely to see bad pitches in the zone. Rather than let them go by and work long pitch counts, he’s aggressive and jumps all over those pitches. His current profile is not that of a hacker, though.
Now, granted, he easily could end up being a guy who gets too aggressive and pays for it as he advances. However, I don’t think his patience is going to be as much of an issue as he advances. He’s got a good enough handle on the strike zone to at least become average when it comes to drawing walks.
by Outshined_One on May 24, 2009 1:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Riding a hot streak
Vitters is a very good prospect. But before anyone suggests he’s better than Moustakas/Snider/Bruce/Maybin/Upton/ Rasmus based on numbers let’s allow the season to play out more. He’s riding a hot streak right now with 6 of his 9 home runs coming in the last 10 games. Four of those dingers against the team with by far the worst pitching staff in the league (5.56ERA).
It is exciting that he’s flashing the power without excessive strikeouts. That’s reasonable evidence that his swing is compact which will continue to help him as he rises levels.
by fourthandeye on May 24, 2009 8:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Now...
7 of his 10 home runs have come in his last 11 games, and 3 of them have not come against the team with the worst ERA in the league. In fact, 2 of them came against West Michigan, whose team ERA is under 3 (by far the best in the league). Today’s HR came off a pitcher who’d only given up 1 all year to-date, who sported a 3.34 ERA coming into the game. While ERA is a pretty poor way to judge pitchers, I’ll go with it for now. The ERAs of Vitters’ other victims during his hot streak: 5.56, 3.14, 2.98, 6.61, 7.07, and 3.68. That’s 3 duds and 4 guys who are holding their own or even excelling in the MWL.
by slamcactus on May 24, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vitters over Mous
Saw Vitters at Beloit twice a week ago. Best series a player has had in this league for years. I didn’t see him swing and miss once. The contact was hard on everything and he made a couple nice plays at 3rd, nothing great. The thing I look at defensively is how they look playing their position. Does he look bored or does it seem like he’s taking as much pride in the field as he does at the plate? Had a beer and dog with a Twins scout I know back in Rochester who emphasized that Vitters should have gone 2nd to the Royals two years ago and that they might regret that pick more than passing on Wieters which I personally doubt. I can’t say there is any 3b I would rather in my system than him though. Pedro and others included.
by gpellet41 on May 25, 2009 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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