Elvis Andrus

by Bravesin07 on May 22, 2009 10:20 PM EDT Comment 24 comments

What do you guys think of his start so far this year. Do you people here think he can become an all star within the next 3 years? Andrus has cut down his K-Rate and has hit for much more power this year so far. 4 HR 4 Triples and a handfull of doubles is pretty good for someone who has 119 AB's. The only Knock is that he has walked only 6 times all year and only has 6 steals.

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Three Years?

I thought the timetable would be more like three weeks.

by rwperu34 on May 22, 2009 10:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's hard...

not to see this as a Texas mirage. Today’s HR was the first away from Arlington, and before today he had a .933 OPS at home vs. .553 at home. Obviously, he’s better than he’s been the road and worse than he’s looked at home. The contact’s nice, but I don’t see legitimate double-digit home run power just yet. The defense has been legitimately outstanding, though. With the bat, I think he’s always going to be more attractive in fantasy than real life because of his ballpark.

If he’s going to make the all-star game, it will be as an Omar Vizquel-level elite defensive talent who’s capable offensively. That has a lot of value, but I don’t think the offensive surge is “real” in the sense that we should be talking about him as a potential offensive force.

by slamcactus on May 22, 2009 10:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ha

That’s supposed to read.933 OPS at home vs. .553 on the road.

by slamcactus on May 22, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong

Today’s HR was the first away from Arlington

He hit one in Oakland.

Go Rangers...don't suck...

by Kinslerhomer on May 22, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whups...

I was looking at the wrong column. You’re right. Doesn’t change much of anything about my analysis, but I’ll admit when I’m wrong on a detail.

by slamcactus on May 23, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Tonight’s HR in Houston was in another offensive park for RH hitters, but if you saw it, it was LONG gone. He has the power to hit a decent number of homers.

by Daniel Plainview on May 23, 2009 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep

that was out in any park.

i dont’ get the idea that where he’s hit his homers matters that much.

by scooter on May 23, 2009 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who cares how many HRs he hits?

That’s hardly the most important part of his game. He’s been a smart hitter, not trying to do too much. We expected him to have a flashy glove, but he’s also been pretty steady on routine plays. Right now Andrus has a wOBA of .355, who expected that, even in the short term? He’s on pace to be between a 2.5-3 win player as a 20-yr. old rookie.

I don’t care about his fantasy stats, he’s helping the Rangers win ballgames.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 23, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this

by daveh33 on May 23, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on May 24, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

20

Your point is well taken, but this is a 20 year old holding his own at the Major League level and excelling defensively. I don’t see how someone can be anything other than bullish on Adrus’ future.

by GuyinNY on May 23, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm...

definitely bullish. He’s far exceeded my expectations. I think he’s a borderline star even if he never surpasses .270/.320/.400, which he’s definitely capable of sustaining. I just don’t think his offensive ceiling is all that high. Age is only a proxy for upside when it’s coupled with projectability. Andrus’s frame doesn’t lead to a whole bunch of projectability, and bulking up to add HR and gap power is the last thing Rangers fans should want to see out of him, because that jeopardizes his defensive value.

Andrus is a great looking young player. All I’m saying is that I think his path to stardom will (and should) resemble Omar Vizquel’s much more closely than Hanley Ramirez.

by slamcactus on May 23, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So wait....

it seems to me that you equate homeruns to being valuable offensively. Sure, they are valuable… but a player doesn’t have to hit HRs to be an offensive force.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on May 23, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I...

don’t know where on earth you read that HR’s are the only thing that makes a hitter valuable into my post, Box.

Andrus isn’t a walk machine and doesn’t have great power. His offensive value is going to lie in hitting a lot of singles and placing enough balls in the gap that he’ll have a good number of extra base hits. Right now, his slugging’s buoyed by 4 triples, which would project to 17 over a full season. In the last 30 years there’s been exactly 1 player who’s hit 17 or more triples more than once: Jose Reyes. He might have Reyes’ extremely rare skill set, but the odds are against it.

Andrus has wildly exceeded my expectations. The question posed by the thread was whether or not he’ll be an all-star. I think he’s definitely capable of being one, and my only caution is that I don’t think he stands to become a big-time offensive threat. A valuable bat in the lineup perhaps, but he’ll never be a middle of the order run producer or a high-OBP leadoff guy.

If he can hit .300/.340/.440 or somewhere thereabout, he’s a 5-win player. That’s a damn good player, and about a 4.5-5-win player at short.

by slamcactus on May 24, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comparison

Hey slam, are you ready to admit that he was/is a better prospect that Alcides Escobar.

by wolviex18 on May 23, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right...

That’s just about the stupidest calling someone out move I’ve ever heard. Going into the year, Escobar had a better range of skills. He’s had a slow start and Andrus has had a great one, but coming into the year I stand by my belief that Escobar had the better chance.

Question: if you draw to the inside straight and catch your river card once, does that make it a good strategy? Results-based analysis in inherently unpredictable fields is just dumb. There isn’t a single person who plays this game who doesn’t get things wrong.

For the record, I made the case for Escobar over Andrus before the BP and BA books/lists came out. The rankers’ opinions of the two players went like this:

Jim Callis: Escobar #27, Andrus not ranked in top-50.
Will Lingo: Escobar #5, Andrus #32
John Manuel: Escobar #20, Andrus #37
Kevin Goldstein: Escobar #51, Andrus #73.

I guess everyone’s an idiot, then?

If you draw to the inside straight once and get your card, does that make it a good strategy in your world?

by slamcactus on May 24, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ha.

Shows what I get for writing hastily at the end of a long day of studying. I meant to delete the second inside straight analogy.

by slamcactus on May 24, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everyone is not an idiot

There were plenty of members on this site that argued Andrus was better
Also, maybe the above post came off harsher than I meant it to. Itintended it more as a playful calling out.

by wolviex18 on May 24, 2009 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But to answer your question:

On May 19, 5 days ago, Andrus was hitting .266/.304/.394 (for an OPS of .698). 2 days later a couple of 1-hit games raised his .OPS to .729. The next day, a 4-5 game raised his season line to .292/.331/.458 (a .789 OPS, for those of us who don’t care to add).

Andrus has wildly exceeded my expectations by holding his own this early, but let’s refrain from making huge statements about the development of prospects when we’re still at the point where a guy can still raise his OPS by almost 100 points in 5 days, and by 60 points in a single game.

Also, he plays in Texas, and his road OPS still hasn’t crested .600 even after last night’s home run, so no, I’m not quite ready to say he’s an all-star just yet. Check back at the end of the year.

by slamcactus on May 24, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs