Thinking about Shadow Twins Draft

by John Sickels on May 22, 2009 10:15 PM EDT

The Shadow Draft and the Shadow Twins farm system serves two purposes for me: 1) have fun; 2) provide a focus for research, particularly the draft. With that in mind, I'm starting to think about who I want to look at in the draft for my Shadow Twins farm system.

Looking at the condition of the system, I note that I've taken high school players in the first round in each of the last three drafts (Lars Anderson, 2006; Nevin Griffith, 2007; Brett Lawrie, 2008). Griffith (an overdraft in any event) blew out his elbow last year,and I could use some additional power arms in the system. I drafted Lawrie as an outfielder, but could use some depth there, too.

The Twins pick 22nd overall, then a supplemental first round pick at 46th. Given the high schoolers I've taken lately, I'd like to consider a college pick this time at the top, preferably a hitter. I'd love it if Tim Wheeler out of Sacramento State was available, but I imagine he will be gone by 22nd. given the paucity of college hitters this year.

LSU's Jared Mitchell could be there at 22nd, and I would strongly consider him despite his relative rawness. A.J. Pollock would be another possibility. College pitchers possibly available at 22nd of interest would be Oklahoma State's Andrew Oliver, Indiana's Eric Arnett, Drew Storen of Stanford, Sam Dyson of South Carolina, and Kyle Heckathorn and Chad Jenkins of Kennesaw State.

Some good high schoolers will still be there, too, but I haven't focused on them enough yet to have firm opinions.

Other personal favorites include Arizona State OF Jason Kipnis (sandwich target), Alex Wilson RHP of Texas A&M, and USC RHP Robert Stock. Middle round possibilities I like would include Minnesota 2B Derek McCallum, LSU OF Blake Dean, Ball State OF Jeremy Hazelbaker, and South Carolina OF Deangelo Mack.

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I've been wondering if Stock is signable.

Being so young, he could come back next year, still be normal age and have a college degree. He could also hugely increase his stock as a catcher if he wants to keep hitting. His pitching could also improve. All those things together make me wonder if he’s going to require a huge bonus to sign.

And I’m big on Chad Jenkins at #22. I’m starting to be convinced Dyson and Heckathorn are relievers, and Arnett’s impressive, but I like Jenkins over him personally.

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by Andy Seiler on May 22, 2009 10:37 PM EDT reply actions

Stock

Wouldn’t he lose a lot of leverage by being a Senior, even if it is as a 20 year old? Unless he moves himself into the upper tier of the first round, I can’t imagine the money being much different. So the question is, do you think he can improve his stock enough to be mentioned along with Harvey, Loux, Workman, Blair, Ranaudo, et al.?

by Jeff Reese on May 22, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions

So the question is, do you think he can improve his stock enough to be mentioned along with Harvey, Loux, Workman, Blair, Ranaudo, et al.?

Absolutely. The kid’s got first-round talent without a doubt. He just hasn’t put it all together yet. He doesn’t even turn 20 until November 21, so we’re seeing production of 5-4, 2.90 ERA, 86/39 K/BB ratio in 77.2 innings at the age of a typical freshman. That’s about the command I’d expect of a freshman, but not the strikeouts and .223 BAA. That’s quite amazing, experience or not. If he does want to hit, and he thinks he can be a Major League catcher (and I can’t comment on his personal wishes), then he could easily come back and make more money just from a pitching standpoint, using that as his fallback. He doesn’t have a lot of mileage on his arm, so when he’s eligible again as a 20 year old next year, assuming he goes back to school, he could be a relatively high-upside first round college player. He’d have a little less leverage, but he could hold out, play Indy ball, and still be just 21 in the 2011 draft. Crazy.

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by Andy Seiler on May 23, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions

John, I think you're right

In both you’re Shadow Twins system and in real life I think a college bat of some sort is needed. Especially for the real life-Twins a college player would be real nice….

but 3B Bobby Borchering, OF Mike Trout, SS Jiovani Mier are a few prep offensive players that I really like quite a bit

Drafting a prep player may very well be the Way You, and The Twins will have to go @ # 22.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 23, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions