They Were Number One: Top College Pitchers, 1989-2004

by John Sickels on May 21, 2009 7:33 PM EDT

Here are the Top College Pitchers drafted (and signed) in the first round, 1989 through 2004. Players who did not sign are not included.

1989: Ben McDonald, RHP, Louisiana State (Orioles, 1^st overall): 78-70 (.527), 3.91 ERA, 115 ERA+, 1291 innings.

1990: Alex Fernandez, RHP, Miami-Dade South CC (White Sox, 4^th overall): 107-87 (.552), 3.74 ERA, 115 ERA+, 1760 innings.

1991: Joey Hamilton, RHP, Georgia Southern (Padres, 8^th overall): 74-73 (.503), 4.44 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1341 innings.

1992: Paul Shuey, RHP, North Carolina (Indians, 2^nd overall): 45-28 (.616), 23 saves, 3.87 ERA, 119 ERA+, 530 innings.

1993: Darren Dreifort, RHP, Wichita State (Dodgers, 2^nd overall): 48-60 (.444), 4.36 ERA, 95 ERA+, 873 innings.

1994: Paul Wilson, RHP, Florida State (Mets, 1^st overall) 40-58 (.408), 4.86 ERA, 88 ERA+, 942 innings.

1995: Jonathan Johnson, RHP, Florida State (Rangers, 7^th overall) 2-4 (.333), 6.63 ERA, 69 ERA+, 77 innings.

1996: Kris Benson, RHP, Clemson (Pirates, 1^st overall): 69-74 (.483), 4.38 ERA, 101 ERA+, 1222 innings.

1997: Matt Anderson, RHP, Rice (Tigers, 1^st overall): 15-7 (.682), 26 saves, 5.19 ERA, 88 ERA+, 257 innings.

1998: Mark Mulder, LHP, Michigan State (Athletics, 2^nd overall): 103-60 (.632), 4.18 ERA, 106 ERA+, 1314 innings.

1999: Kyle Snyder, RHP, North Carolina (Royals, 7^th overall): 8-17 (.320), 5.57 ERA, 85 ERA+, 238 innings.

2000: Adam Johnson, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (Twins, 2^nd overall): 1-3 (.250), 10.25 ERA, 45 ERA+, 26 innings.

2001: Mark Prior, RHP, Southern Cal (Cubs, 2^nd overall): 42-29 (.592), 3.51 ERA, 123 ERA+, 657 innings.

2002: Bryan Bullington, RHP, Ball State (Pirates, 1^st overall): 0-5 (.000), 5.08 ERA, 87 ERA+, 39 innings.

2003: Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Wake Forest (Tigers, 3^rd overall): Never made the majors, posted 6.55 ERA in 249 minor league innings.

2004: Justin Verlander, RHP, Old Dominion (Tigers, 2^nd overall): 50-36 (.581), 4.10 ERA, 111 ERA+, 656 innings.

Of this group, I think the three who had the most Strasburg-like hype were McDonald, Wilson, and Prior, all regarded, when drafted, as among the best college pitchers in history. Dreifort, Benson, Mulder, and Verlander were also very highly-regarded, if not quite at the same level as the others.

The only two-year college player on this list, Alex Fernandez, is a special case. He had pitched brilliantly as a freshman for the Miami Hurricanes, but transferred to the CC level for his sophomore year in order to re-enter the draft and cash in early. Interestingly, Fernandez also pitched the most innings of this group thus far.

Paul Shuey never became the monster closer people expected, but he has been a decent reliever. Matt Anderson, the other big-name expected closer on this list, was terrible due to command problems.

The high rate of injury casualties is apparent.

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Comments

what's surprising to me

is how little the ERA+ difference is between Mulder, a perceived ace, and Benson, a perceived #3 pitcher.

Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo

by playingwithfire on May 22, 2009 1:03 AM EDT reply actions

mulder

had a 3.87 before he got hurt in 2006

by TheBigOne on May 22, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions

avoid ACC pitchers

It looks top college pitchers seldom live up to their hype. One reason behind that is their arms were abused. One might notice that pitchers from ACC perform worse as a group. As a traditionally deep conference, the competetion is so intense throughout the season that more mileage accrues on the arms than say in Summit league. Also based on this better-competetion environment, (un)fortunately stats from ACC would get more recognition from talent-evaluators and their pitchers have a better chance go top than small league guys.

Alex Fernandez pitching the most innings, as John mentioned, support the abused-arms story from the opposite side.

by mlif on May 22, 2009 1:24 AM EDT reply actions

Pitchers

So it seems, the best strategy why drafting College or High School hurlers, is to pick the one you think is the best out of the available bunch. And then pray to god that they don’t get hurt.

How painfully simple its all turning out to be.

by CoolCat23 on May 22, 2009 1:29 AM EDT reply actions

Thank you very much for doing this....

….I really appreciate your responsiveness to suggestions.

Interesting that only one lefty has gone of the board first in the time period.

by James F on May 22, 2009 2:01 AM EDT reply actions

Verlander

is shaping up to be the best of this group and one that is living up to the expectations correct me if i am wrong?

by High Heater on May 22, 2009 3:31 AM EDT reply actions

Fernandez

Alex Fernandez was a really good pitcher, he just burned out early:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Alex-Fernandez-1.shtml

by Fanon on May 22, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Its crazy how that Ben McDonald is looked upon as a flop, but looking at his career numbers, and by remembering his stints in Baltimore, he really wasnt bad at all. A real promising career down the tubes…..

by QBsIllest1 on May 23, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

matt anderson

he was really starting to come around when he pull a muscle under his armpit and ruined his career. when they finally made him the closer in ‘01, he doubled his K/BB ratio, and i think would’ve continued to improve had he not been injured, so to write him off as “control problems” is a bit off.

Rooting for the Yankees is like going to a casino and rooting for the house.

by djshelto on May 26, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions