Spec time: Who're the Pads getting for Peavy

by mckeeno on May 21, 2009 10:43 AM EDT Comment 44 comments

According to SI, the Padres have agreed to trade Jake Peavy to the White Sox:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/05/21/peavy.trade/index.html

The question is, who're the Pads getting back?

Beckham, Jordan Danks, Dan Hudson & Dexter Carter can't be traded yet. Poreda looks like a shoo-in. Brandon Allen maybe, but they already have Blanks there. Maybe Tyler Flowers? Chris Getz? What package do you think would be fair? Pads could use a lot, but Sox don't look like they have much to give, unless they deal one their own SP like Gavin Floyd.

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Dye

What about Dye going to SD? The ChiSox have been rumored to want to deal him and the Pads can always use more power.

by RandyKutcherHair on May 21, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that makes no sense

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

Why would a rebuilding team want a 35 year old OFer in return for one of their few trading chips?

by jar75 on May 21, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And why would the Sox trade a basher in the middle of their lineup if they're trying to win this year?

That’s a half-baked idea all the way around.

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd guess

Poreda, Flowers, Allen, and another lower level prospect or two.

Though that package doesn’t blow me away by any means.

Maybe a guy like Floyd is in the deal? He’s struggled this year and his peripherals aren’t great, but he’s a young/cheaper arm the Pads could plug in to replace Peavy. Floyd/Poreda/Flowers isn’t too bad.

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

a guy on HQ

says he has heard… getz, poreda, lillibridge and richard..
my question is..if peavy got trade why hold onto adrian gonzalez? ortiz could be done.. The Pads could flip adrian gonzalez to the red sox and slid Blanks into first base. Padres could probably get a nice package for Ortiz.. Possibly a bowden/buccholz and others

by krgrecw on May 21, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If true

That is a STEAL for the White Sox.

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Gotta see Beckman as a PTBNL for this to be decent.

Beckman, Poreda, has to be a starting place right?

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on May 21, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4191562

According this ESPN report, Beckham is NOT one of the players in the deal.

by AKinn15 on May 21, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

I can’t believe no one else would be able to top that. I guess teams are reluctant to deal their top pitching prospects.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 21, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lillibridge

Forgot about him. He’d make sense for SD

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on May 21, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess as a throw-in he makes a bit of sense

But Lillibridge isn’t very good.

If true, this trade is Poreda (a good but not elite prospect) and three completely unremarkable talents who are eminently replaceable.

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beckham, Danks, Hudson, and Carter

Could be PTBNL

by AKinn15 on May 21, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I though they couldn't deal Beckham yet

He would have to be a PTBNL, no?

If he’s included, it’s no longer a steal. Though I still think the Pads could’ve done better than that package.

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They can't

But if they include him as a PTBNL, then they would just wait to announce who the player was until the deadline for not being able to trade recently drafted players has passed (I think it is in June, but I could be wrong)

by AKinn15 on May 21, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could see

Poreda headlining it along with Lillibridge, someone like Broadway or another blocked AAA/AAAA arm and maybe Carter.

by The Gottfather on May 21, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What about Viciedo?

Too expensive? Not eligible?

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on May 21, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The latter

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

will peavy accept?

it will be interesting to see if peavy is willing to go tot he al and especially a hitters park like us cellular. i suppose that he is already signed long term; but his numbers will take a hit in the al.
poreda has to be included for sure. i don’t see the chisox moving either viciedo or g.beckham in this deal.

by RandyKutcherHair on May 21, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Beckham and Viciedo aren't in it

But unless the Sox include a few other legit prospects like Allen and Flowers, and maybe Broadway, I have no idea how that makes San Diego make the deal.

It’s May. They couldn’t see if someone with a better farm couldn’t top that offer?

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gammons

Just said on ESPN that Beckham isn’t part of the deal.

by DirtySox on May 21, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what a waste then...

right?

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on May 21, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My fake guess

Lars Anderson, Bucholtz, and Ryan Kalish for Adrian Gonzo

Done Deal

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on May 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why the f#@* would they do that?

Go Rangers...don't suck...

by Kinslerhomer on May 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was kidding

I had an LOL in there, must have LOL’d in my head..

They wouldn’t

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on May 21, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Red Sox have learned that it’s smarter to hold onto their guys and then just fill them in, they wouldn’t deal a big package for Gonzalez. Their scouting and development system is so good that it doesn’t make sense to trade three of their top five or six young guys.

by Setterlund on May 21, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the Peavy front, I’ve heard that it’s Poreda and Richard along with two others and that it’s a pitching-heavy deal. I’d guess that it’s maybe one of Getz or Lillibridge and a low-level pitcher.

by Setterlund on May 21, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reports are that there are no position players being sent to San Diego

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ge-peavy052109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

by jibs on May 21, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My guess is

Poreda, Richard, Broadway and Dexter Carter. That would be an awful deal for the Pads.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 21, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff Marquez has been pretty bad this year....

but seems like he’d be a nice fit in Petco, no?

by alskor on May 21, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind the offseason rumors

I see a lot of people saying that the White Sox are getting a steal, which may be the case, but from the Padres perspective, keep in mind that the cost of Peavy wasn’t reported to be that high this past offseason. The Cubs deal, iirc, didn’t involve Vitters. The Braves weren’t budging on any top talent. A deal involving Poreda might actually top any of the deals they got this past offseason, in terms of upside. A lot will depend on who the other pieces are (I’m not so big on Clayton Richard personally).

That said, I look at this deal and wonder, why not wait from the Padres perspective? They might be able to generate a bigger market later. Is the risk of a Peavy injury that great to not wait? Of course, sometimes the simple answer is the right one, and maybe the Padres ownership ordered the move.

by toonsterwu on May 21, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Peavy's value

Has definitely been deflated by his trade demands. Really he can only be dealt to 5-6 teams, and a couple of those – St. Louis and Houston – don’t have the prospects required to make a reasonable deal.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 21, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stl

They have Daryl Jones, though the Pads don’t really need another corner OF and there are doubts whether Jones can play CF defensively thanks to a suspect arm.

by guru4u on May 21, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

side note, Padres OF's at AA have really struggled

Hunter, I can see him bouncing back somewhat. I thought Kulbacki’s numbers would come down – didn’t expect this. Was there an injury?

by toonsterwu on May 21, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Injury

Kulbacki has just come back from injury and has only had a few ABs

by SoCal760 on May 21, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah

his k/bb looks solid as well.

by toonsterwu on May 21, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very good point

People keep clamoring about this proposed deal being so horrible for the Padres, but the reality of the situation is that Peavy’s no-trade leverage changes the scope of what they can expect to receive in a trade. If the Padres don’t want to pay his salary for the next 3 years, this very well could be the best type of offer that they would receive for Peavy.

by jibs on May 21, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All it takes is one team getting desperate

And I repeat, it’s only May.

Why not wait at least till July?

by nivarsity on May 21, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

white sox?

I’m not a Sox fan, but my guess is that Kenny Williams wants to make a play now to see if they can turn it around, and if not, sell, sell, sell. If the package isn’t that costly (and really, after Poreda, there isn’t that much pitching, so 4 arms from that system is iffy), then it makes some sense for them.

As for the Padres (I’m assuming you are referring to the w. sox getting desperate, but maybe not), I’d guess that they are fearful of either a Peavy injury or that the trade was ordered from the top.

by toonsterwu on May 21, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Cardinals definitely have the chips

to make a similar deal, assuming the White Sox aren’t offering any top positional assets.

That said, Peavy’s demands certainly plays a role. Sounds like he may say no to this, though.

by toonsterwu on May 21, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Braves Package

I don’t know, I think I’d rather have Escobar than Aaron Poreda.

by jar75 on May 21, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I forget what the rest of the package was to be honest

and have to wait and see on the White Sox offer, but certainly, a case could be made to prioritize pitching. Personally, I’m very lukewarm on Poreda (see a mid-rotation guy in a positive scenario) but maybe they like him a lot, which I can find reasons for.

by toonsterwu on May 21, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I looked it up...

“Under terms of the deal discussed by the Braves and Padres, San Diego would receive shortstop Yunel Escobar, Class A outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, one of two starting pitchers — Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes — and either reliever Blaine Boyer or one of two minor-league left-handers (one of which is believed to be Jeff Locke).”

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270335/11665079

I like Escobar and Locke, and I’d rather have that deal than the names being floated around currently.

by jar75 on May 21, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs