MOD Mariners, Week Two
by AndrewZStebbins on May 20, 2009 7:48 PM EDT
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PrintWelcome to Week Two of my Mariners' draft blog, where I bring you my thoughts and ask for yours. This past weekend I traveled to several games along the eastern seaboard, where I watched the final series' for a lot of teams not making the NCAA tournament. Also, as the high school baseball season winds down across many parts of the country we're getting last looks at a lot of guys who will wind up being high on our draft board. Later this week my staff and I will be meeting with our crosscheckers to form a rough sketch of how we think the first round might play out. But this is hard, because I'll admit we aren't even sure about our first pick here in Seattle. We should have this settled by the time June comes around, barring injury. At that time I'll be able to drop a hint or two, if you'd like.
To all my area scouts reading this, please continue to tell us about players you've seen this year before time runs out. The draft is quickly approaching! Obviously, this is one of our favorite times of the year. Make your hard work count and keep the suggestions coming!
This week I'd like to talk to you about draft stock. It doesn't exist. Not at all. "Stock" is a term invented by media after a much hyped player fails to live up to the publication's expectations. It is not a term we in baseball use. We know who has the tools, and those tools don't disappear without an injury. Players get outplayed and players make improvements in their game but a player's draft stock never rises or falls. I think that's important for fans to understand.
Next week I'll be back with another update and tell you about how our draft board is shaping up. Without giving too much away, of course ;)
You can continue to vote on our poll on last week's MOD post.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/5/13/874667/mod-mariners
And as always, I'll answer any questions you might have in the comments.
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I could see the M's picking a HS prospect over a college prospect with the 27th pick
With the #2 pick already, they could take a bit of a bigger risk with the 27th or 33rd pick in order to get a chance at a higher reward.
Zduriencik/Blengino...
have never been overly concerned with labels. Their draft strategy in Milwaukee was all over the board. Prince Fielder was a serious break of the mold as an overweight HS 1B taken in the top third of the first round, and LaPorta was a totally out of left field pick. Milwaukee’s drafts tended to zero in on guys the scouting squad liked, and they drafted those guys regardless of their projected draft position if they didn’t think they’d be available later. All signs point to this draft being pitching-rich and hitting poor, particularly in the 1S-3rd rounds. I am confident that the Mariners will take who their scouts believe is the best pick available with all of their picks, and I’m confident that a couple of their high-round picks will be pitchers given the strengths in this year’s draft. Beyond that, there’s absolutely no way to predict how they’ll go.
Also...
I still really like Brett Jackson, and wouldn’t hesitate to snap him up at 33, even though some mock drafts have him going lower. I think he’s a Drew Stubbs-type draft prospect, and their Junior years actually look eerily similar. Like Stubbs, Jackson has one of the best all-around tools packages in D1 baseball but has a merely good and not great statistical profile. He k’s a little too much, plays very nice D and has solid pop, with some projecting him for more. Unlike Stubbs, Jackson bats lefty. He also isn’t quite as physical.
Drew Stubbs might not overly excite people, but when guys like this pan out, they become true impact talents. There’s inherent risk involved in drafting toolsy college players who’ve yet to live up to their full potential, but in a draft short on college bats it’s hard to overlook the upside of a guy who could hit .280/.350/.480 in the majors while playing above average center field defense or great corner outfield defense. In the 1S round, I don’t see very many other players with that kind of upside.
slamcactus
Just a reminder, this isn’t a mock based on rumor, but based on who we believe are the talents that matchup with the picks. I’m not concerned with signability. And like you said, we will take the best available player.
by AndrewZStebbins on May 21, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh i know.
I was responding to the post that says “I could see them going with a hs player…” which sounded like prediction, and not MOD discussion. There’s literally no way to know what Zduriencik and Blengino will do, including considering the profile of guys they like to draft.
I stand by Brett Jackson though. I think he’ll be a steal in the supplemental round.
We will take the player who we think we be the better major leaguer, regardless of age or experience.
by AndrewZStebbins on May 21, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Sleepers?
Who are some guys who aren’t getting a lot of media time but are worthy of a top 3 round selection?
by AndrewZStebbins on May 21, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
I like...
what I’m hearing about Puerto Rican outfielder Edwin Gomez. He’s a lanky switch-hitter who scouts think can stick in center. He has power from both sides of the plate, but more from the left side, which suits the Mariners’ needs well.
From a need-based perspective, toolsy outfielders aren’t really the organization’s top priority, but for a 3rd-4th round selection I really like this kid.
Keep an eye on 2B/SS Derek McCallum
Lefty hitter, 6-0", 190 lbs, plays second base. John Sickels already mentioned his name, but he’s a good sleeper pick in the later rounds. Not much of note prior to 2009: .340/.379/.444 in his Freshman year, .291/.352/.398 in his Sophmore year, but he’s exploded in his Junior year.
As of May 21st, he’s batting .397/.472/.714. As a former shortstop, his range and glove play really well at second base. In his first two years in the Big 10 McCallum amassed 16 doubles, 3 triples and a meager 5 HRs. In 2009 alone, McCallum already has 12 doubles, 3 triples, and 15 HRs. He’s second in the league in BA and first in SLG%.
Really good pick to help bolster what is basically non-existent depth in Seattle’s MI. Not too much info on the guy, but here are some links that are some good reads:
http://www.thedailygopher.com/2009/4/23/850039/derek-mccallum-hats-off-to-thee
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