Fantasy: How Bad is David Ortiz?
by The Congo Hammer on May 20, 2009 12:23 PM EDT
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PrintI thought it was brilliant to pick him up in all three of my leagues, since I picked him up rather late and he was coming off a bad season. I didn't need him to hit 45-50 HR, but I'd be fine with a .300 30 HR season. But what the hell is happening? He has no HR and doesn't appear able to hit even in batting practice!
Well my question now as an Ortiz owner, do you sell now and still get something, albeit greatly reduced, for him, or am I better off just holding on and hoping he can turn it around? The two best offers I've gotten for him in my AL-only league (many teams say they don't want him at all) are Ortiz and DelCarmen for Crisp and Floyd (I can replace him rather easily) and Ortiz and DelCarmen for Ken Griffey Jr. and my choice of Brian Tallet or B.J. Ryan.
It pains me that his stock has fallen so far so fast, and I worry that I'll look like a moron if he comes back to form and puts up great numbers for someone else, but at the same time I'd feel stupid to not get something for him if he'll just keep putting up zeroes til he gets replaced in the lineup and is worthless. What do you guys think of him and his performance for the rest of the year?
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I don't advise holding him
If that’s the absolute best you can do then Crisp and Floyd is the best offer.
I’m in the group that thinks Ortiz is pretty much done though.
pains me to say so...
but i’d sell low on him. hope i’m wrong.
I think he's done..
I’m wondering if he and Hafner aren’t proving that even if guys weren’t hardcore PED users, they may have been taking them to help recover from injury. Now they are no longer able to use them for fear they are the next Manny, so they are going to take longer to recover, if they even can recover.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
do you really think he did steroids?
I mean he did offer to do a blood test and has called for the MLB cracking down on steroids. It could be an age-old defense mechanism, but perhaps is he just fat and his body is breaking down due to natural causes?
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on May 20, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions
first tater
i’d like to point out that he took the weekend off to work out the mechanical kinks in his swing and according to magadan, he’s all better…. and he hit his first HR
no problem, glad you enjoyed it
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on May 21, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok So what if the one team is now offering Griffey and Ziegler instead. Should I take that?
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on May 21, 2009 12:32 AM EDT reply actions
No!
Griffey is eminently replaceable. Ziegler is damaged goods and his manager has made some very negative comments… something like “we’re back to where we were before Devine went down” w/ regards to the Closers spot, and some very positive comments about Bailey.
Look… dont get cute. Ortiz has waaaaayyy more upside than these guys. He looks like he’s turning it around. Youd be crazy to have waited this long only to trade him now.’
Lets look at what ZiPs has for his Rest of Season projection after accounting for what he’s done to this date into his true talent level:
.272/.382/.518, 22 HRs, 69 R, 77 RBI
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=745&position=DH
That projection does not account for his HR today, either. It was from yesterday essentially. Start of the season through yesterday. That is a really good player, with good power, plus plus patience and one who bats 3rd in a very potent lineup. Why would you bail on that?
Whether he turns it around or not, youre trading in a lottery ticket for two pretty marginal guys. Keep that lottery ticket… especially now that it seems like he could, indeed turn it around!
And I would add:
-Ortiz’s bat speed has not slowed at all. This was one of many myths about his slump.
-Ortiz is in better shape than any of the last three years.
-Dave Magadan claimed he fixed a mechanical problem in his swing during his mini vacation… unfortunately, the first outing back was against a lefty who was a tough angle for Papi. Not exactly a great slump buster matchup.
-Ortiz hit his HR tonight off a hard throwing lefthander – another great sign.
-Ortiz hit a moonshot tonight! Absolutely crushed the ball.
-He also hit another long ball to Center that came off the Monster.
Basically, this entire thing was mental, IMHO
Ortiz is a nut job who always talks about his wrists and his feel. He’s a real “feel” hitter. Which is why when he gets going he goes on crazy runs. He was embarrassed and broken by his slow start and it got to him so he was taking whimpy swings and basically trying not to strike out. He really looked like a guy who was trying like hell not to strike out more than get a hit or HR.
Since the mini vacation his big, fierce cuts are back. He even said tonight:
What did you do differently today?
Swing like a man, not like a little (expletive). (Laugh)
How much were you pressing while waiting for that homer?
I wasn’t really worried about homers as much as I was worried about getting my swing back because I know when my swing is right there, homers are going to come, regardless. My pressing was from missing pitches that I normally hit or sometimes putting a good swing on it and still missing it. That’s crazy. It gets you thinking and puts you in a situation where you’ll be like, what do I have to do? I’ve tried it all. I was about to hit right-handed.
Did you feel different in your next trips to the plate?
Oh yeah. I feel like I got all my confidence back. Let me tell you. I look out there like a real hitter, not like the punch and judy I have been for the first 40 games.
Look, I realize player’s comments and a dollar wont even buy you a cup of coffee anymore… but Im telling you, he was swinging like a little b**** before and he looks different now. Im SURE he’s in a decline phase of his career, but he was sooo good, even with the wrist last year, that he had a real long way to decline. It wasnt going to happen all at once.
thanks for the info
My itchy trigger finger when it comes to unloading struggling players is my fantasy achilles’ heel. I’ll wait a few days but I’ll probably keep Ortiz. Good timing Papi!
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on May 21, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
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