2009 Amateur Draft Mock #6 Round One
Now that I'm back, it's time to get back to the draft coverage. Here is my latest mock:
1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - The only question is how quickly he'll sign and for how much money. Previously: #1.
2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, OF, North Carolina - I think this is really starting to become a sure thing. Ackley's a legit hitter with the growing ability to man center field. If his arm holds up, there's nothing holding him back from becoming a star player. Previously: #2.
3. San Diego - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - Jason Churchill says the Padres like Donavan Tate, Grant Green, Kyle Gibson, and Crow. Crow's starting to heat up with another nice outing, and I think he pitches himself into this spot. Previously: #4.
4. Pittsburgh - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO) - The bonus demands and commitment don't scare teams away when your performance is top-notch. Turner's pushed himself into the top ten, and this pick makes good sense. Previously: #28.
5. Baltimore - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - Despite a mediocre performance last weekend, White's still one of the best options in the draft. Baltimore's done well with its recent college picks, and White's got legitimate upside. Previously: #8.
6. San Francisco - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Matzek's still the best prep lefty, and I think the Giants will be picking between him and Zack Wheeler. Matzek's done well enough to keep his spot above Wheeler, making him the pick. Previously: #5.
7. Atlanta - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - Wheeler has continued his stretch of dominance, probably solidifying a top ten spot. If he's available to the Braves, I think there's no way he lasts to the eighth spot. Previously: #7.
8. Cincinnati - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints - Scheppers and Crow are considered unknown wildcards in terms of draft stock in this draft. I don't think either gets past the tenth pick, and Scheppers is probably a favorite of the Reds. Previously: #3.
9. Detroit - Grant Green, SS, USC - Another Churchill tidbit says that teams don't expect Green to last past the Tigers. Yes, they're in need of middle infield help both in the Majors and on the farm, but I just wonder how much money he'll need. Previously: #15.
10. Washington - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - In a bit of a surprise, Kyle Gibson slid to the tenth slot in my mock this week. I don't think the Nationals would choose Chad Jenkins or others over Gibson, and they'll spend the money. Previously: #6.
11. Colorado - Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State - Leake is just too dominant and has too much to offer to a team for him to drop into the second half of the first round. His offspeed stuff is as good as anyone in the entire class, making him an early pick. Previously: #11.
12. Kansas City - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX) - Still a top prospect, Purke will fall if the teams that prefer prep arms have better options on the board at their pick. That's the case in this week's mock, meaning his bonus demands and talent level make his draft stock vulnerable. Previously: #9.
13. Oakland - Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State - He keeps hitting and drawing walks, and his athleticism is impressive. All in all, he's the most well-rounded college outfielder, perhaps more than Ackely due to the arm strength issue. Good fit here. Previously: #10.
14. Texas - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX) - Miller's another case, like Purke, that will fall if better options fall to prep-heavy scouting teams. He's got monster arm strength, but will be a project of a sort. Enter the new style Texas Rangers. Previously: #12.
15. Cleveland - Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA) - I was wondering which way the Indians would go, having gone for a JUCO and NAIA product over the last two years, and I figured that they'll go for a hitter of some sort. Stassi's underrated by some, but not in terms of draft value. Previously: #16.
16. Arizona - Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb - This would be a tremendous pick for the Diamondbacks, who hope to load up on talent with their extra picks in this year's draft. Brothers has good arm strength, but mixed results might move him down this far. Previously: #13.
17. Arizona - Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College - A slight reach, this might make some sense for the budget-conscious Diamondbacks. Sanchez is still the best college catcher, and they are generally drafted higher than their pure talent deserves. Previously: #43.
18. Florida - Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA) - Mier is clearly the best prep shortstop, and the Marlins are clearly favoring prep players. I'm not sure if they want a pitcher or hitter, but Mier would be an interesting slot fit. Previously: #18.
19. St. Louis - James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky - Paxton's choice of Scott Boras is still questionable, but the pure talent is not. He's on the young side of college draft-eligibles, and his arm isn't as worn, so he's still a first round pick. Previously: #19.
20. Toronto - Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford - I do think one college reliever will slip into the first round, and that will probably be Stanford's Storen. He's got plus command with plus stuff, and that will lead to a quick ascent to the bigs. Previously: #37.
21. Houston - Donavan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - While a number of teams are shying away from Tate for various reasons including his hit tool, signing bonus demands, and his love of the sport, the Astros sure do love their athletes. The question is whether they'll pay his asking price. Previously: #14.
22. Minnesota - Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ) - Even though they've gone with two prep outfielders for their last two top picks, I'm sure Trout's still on the Twins' list. He's got the tools to be another plus defender and hitter in their system. Previously: #20.
23. Chicago (AL) - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - Oliver's still a college lefty with upside, and that's all it takes for the White Sox to pick someone. He might need more time to get through the minors than your typical college pick. Previously: #17.
24. Los Angeles (AL) - Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL) - With a good bat, but questionable defensive capabilities, Borchering will be the type of player that forms the measuring stick of this draft class. He's likely a first round pick in almost any scenario. Previously: #22.
25. Los Angeles (AL) - Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC) - The Angels would be thrilled to get the best prep third baseman in Borchering and someone who's battling to be the best prep catcher in Myers. Who knows if he'll stay behind the plate, but the bat should play. Previously: #21.
26. Milwaukee - Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State - I've seen enough about Jenkins to think he's a legitimate first round option for teams. He's performed better than his teammate Kyle Heckathorn, and I think Jenkins' command makes him more attractive to most teams. Previously: #51.
27. Seattle - Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana - I've been thinking that the Mariners might pair Dustin Ackley with a prep pitcher, but I don't know if the options here are better than Arnett. I think the Mariners will with the best pitcher available here. Previously: #34.
28. Boston - Garrett Gould, RHP, Maize HS (KS) - Gould's snuck up lists gradually, finally exploding recently. I think he's pitched his way into first round consideration, and the success of Casey Kelly only encourages the Red Sox to think prep. Previously: NR.
29. New York (AL) - Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State - I still think Heckathorn's pure stuff is as good as anyone not named Strasburg. Someone like the Yankees, who value that quality, will take a chance on Heckathorn, who will be one of the risker college picks. Previously: #38.
30. Tampa Bay - Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK) - James still plays somewhere in the first round, and I think the Rays would be thrilled to get one of the top prep lefties this far down. Previously: #25.
31. Chicago (NL) - Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU - All this time I've been thinking the Cubs will pick a pitcher. However, if an athletic college outfielder like Mitchell is available here, I wonder what the Cubs choose to do. Previously: #24.
32. Colorado - Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia - You may be thinking that the Rockies have enough of these types of hitters, but Poythress' bat is a legit first round monster. I like his chances in the pros. Previously: #23.
The usual disclaimer: writeups on draft status going into the draft were a mixture of BA and PG unless otherwise noted. Go to their sites for draft coverage. They're awesome.
What do you think?
5 recs |
39 comments
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Comments
I am curious to see what Astro's fan think there
budget is. With the teams rigidness with the slotting system I am worried that Tate won’t be a logical pick for them at 21. Ia m curious on how far you think Tate could fall if he does not go to Hou. Is there any possibility he makes it to the Supp round? Or even to Bos/NYY?
Tate
He could definitely fall to a larger market team. If he really does want $5-6 million to sign, there’s a legitimate shot he falls out of the first round altogether. I’m getting a bad feeling that he ends up at UNC come August.
Blue Jays
Too much of an overdraft for Storen. I believe they go prep this year. If Trout’s on the board, I think they take him, with visions of a Snider-like ascent.
by ofsticksandbats on May 19, 2009 5:21 PM EDT reply actions
This happens every year...
The past 2 or 3 drafts there have been built-up talks of the Jays being heavily considering a relief pitcher in the first round. None of the times has it actually ended up happening. While we are big on converting relievers into starts I really doubt we take Storen that high. We’ve also been scouting Chad James and Garrett Gould.
Storen's the type of reliever that every team with a second half pick is considering.
Like I said, plus command and plus stuff make a reliever a legitimate target. Storen’s got a great combo that should make him a shutdown reliever in the bigs. Teams wary of overpaying for free agent relievers know the value draft picks can bring.
Schep over White
Thinking O’s will draft Schep over White. White seems like a guy who does not pitch to his ability except in those “big” games. Small sample but that is how I feel.
It's about personal preference.
Scheppers’ injury history makes him a more risky pick. That outweighs what small advantage he has in terms of pure stuff. People dwell on White’s weaknesses without realizing how good he has been.
If Poythress slides to 32...
I’d be really surprised. His bat is too legit.
Poythress...
…has been struggling lately and has thus been slipping.
There's a number of scenarios that have him falling that far.
This is just one. In a year where there are a huge number of players that could be first rounders, someone like Poythress that only brings value on one side of the diamond, with his bat, are likely to lose traction. He also hasn’t been performing quite as well as he did at the beginning of the year. Sam Dyson of South Carolina owned him on Thursday. Teams notice matchups like that.
Wow this week's
Has by far been the biggest shakeup….
One I think will go even higher P – Mike Leake
one I think will go lower P – James Paxton
it is weird to Imagine OF Tate, OF Mitchell and 1B Poythress all going within the last few picks of the first round.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 19, 2009 6:55 PM EDT reply actions
Garrett Gould
Andy, could you give a brief scouting report on Garrett Gould please? I hadn’t seen his named mentioned before. Thanks.
X
Big kid at 6’4’’, 200 lbs. In other words, he’s of prototypical starting pitching size, and he’s a very good athlete. He’s reportedly ramped up his fastball into the 91-94 mph range this spring, which is up from last year. His big plus is a huge power curve, which is far advanced for a prep. He’s also had some experience with a changeup, which is a plus. A negative is the effort in his delivery, meaning he’s probably somewhere in the range of a Madison Younginer on some teams’ boards, those who think he’ll be a reliever in the long-term. However, his athleticism probably makes him able to repeat his mechanics better than most 6’4’’ max-effort guys. That’s more of an educated guess than a fact. He’s also got a bit less mileage on his arm than some overworked prep kids from programs in warmer states. Good package, but whoever drafts him is banking on big upside and a fairly lengthy development timetable.
by Andy Seiler on May 19, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Where do you see the following prepsters falling
Hobgood?
Richard Shaffer?
Slade Heathcott?
Matt Davidson?
the rangers have 44 in the sup are any of those guys around then?
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
X
Hobgood: Early supplemental
Shaffer: Fifth Round is my best guess at this point
Heathcott: Second
Davidson: Early supplemental
Hobgood and Davidson are two guys that can easily go in the first round to teams who like their upside. Heathcott’s just outside the elite level of prep prospects. Shaffer’s problems are geared around getting results on the field instead of batting practice.
by Andy Seiler on May 19, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You’ve got Skaggs falling out of the first round! Is that a function of his stock falling or the stock of other guys rising?
Both.
He’s had an ankle injury, meaning he’s not out there keeping pace with the top preps. The draft is all about momentum, and he fell at the wrong time. The fact that it isn’t an arm injury means he’ll do just fine. It’s just bad luck. At the ESPN Draft Blog, a scout mentioned that Skaggs is about equal to Matt Hobgood in his estimation, and he’s better than Mychal Givens. That puts him right on the cusp of the first round, but just out of it in my scenario here.
By the way, click my links for the ESPN Draft Blog. They need good counting stats to keep it open past this draft season, and we want that source of information to keep going.
by Andy Seiler on May 19, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Wheeler
Is Wheeler now a legit 10-15 overall pick or would this be a slight overdraft? I had previously heard him going in late first round although I know BA said his stock was rising. I just have a hard time believing the A’s would pass on one of the premium prep pitchers if one were to fall to them. I would like to have Wheeler in the A’s system, especially with him being a local boy but it feels a bit like the Weeks pick last year where maybe he went a few picks too soon.
Tim Wheeler
I assume that’s the Wheeler you’re talking about. I’d say there’s a good chance that’s not an overdraft by much at all come June. He’s one of the few players in this class that have done nothing but impress. He’s got tools plus good polish and I’d take him over a Donavan Tate.
by Andy Seiler on May 20, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Am I the only one calling "BS" on the Nats?
Rizzo did acknowledge that if the player the Nationals liked at No. 10 wasn’t considered a consensus top-10 talent, they could use that leverage to cut a deal below MLB’s bonus recommendation. But he reiterated that ability and not signability would drive the decision as to whom to select.
So the Nats MIGHT like a non-top 10 guy and want to pay him less than slot but honestly we’re doing it to save money…
Anyone interested in buying the Brooklyn Bridge?
No I thought that as well
Basically “We will pick the best player on the board, even if no one else thinks it is the best player on the board”
I think this solidifies the likelihood of the Nats going cheaper with the 10th pick, rather than dispelling it. It may mean taking a guy who will sign for slot there but if Scheppers, Turner or Purke were still there and looking for over the slot bonuses I think there is next to no chance the Nats take them even if they are the BPA.
Why?
Bet each team’s Top 30 is very different. Remember when the Brewers selecting #7 drafted Matt LaPorta and everyone thought it was a huge overdraft? The Nats could have someone in mind at #10 that other clubs have have in the twentys.
I'm sure they do
And I’m equally sure they plan on paying said someone as such.
I’m fully expecting the guy to be right in line with what the Nats like in prospects as well . . .toolsy and raw. Brett Jackson seems as good a guess as any. Kentrail Davis would be an interesting choice despite being represented by Boras . . .would he sign for No. 10 slot money? Just how cheap will the Nats go at No. 10 in order to make the idea of drafting for signability worth it?
Personally, if I was making the choice for the Nats and signability were a concern, I think I’d take a long look at Jiovanni Mier. I like him a lot and I wouldn’t feel bad at all if I could draft him at No. 10 and sign him underslot.
Pirates
I know they opened up the coffers and gave Pedro Alvarez a large signing bonus in the range of six million dollars, But I just do not see that front office a similiar contract to pitcher coming out of high school. Turner slides to Baltimore or San Fransisco if this scenario plays out. And they take Gibson or even overdraft Mike Leake.
The new regime seems intent not to skimp on the draft.
They gave Alvarez the big bonus and also went over the slot a number of times in later rounds. I think if they think Turner is the BPA then they would spend the money to sign him. This is an organisation that is still haunted by the Wieters/Moskas and Bullington decisions.
I am with you all the way to #15..
I am with you all the way to #15. He is just too small. I say if they are going catcher they go Myers or Joseph. Big time projectability.
And, if you want a Bailey...
and, if you want a Bailey just pick Bailey.
I don’t see the Indians going with a catcher if guys like Brothers and Paxton are still on the board.
I don’t see the Indians going with a Catcher with a dearth of catchers in our farm system
by world dictator on May 29, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Jacob Turner
Andy — What’s the main reason behind Turner shooting up the charts past the other hs pitchers? Solely the velocity jump? A combination of that and some other things? I know he’s always been fairly highly rated, but the buzz has really gotten loud lately.
Number of reasons.
The velocity jump is nice and all, but the emergence of a consistent curveball and consistent command make him very desirable. He’s got the body scouts dream on in terms of projection, so that helps. He’s just answered all the questions scouts have had, and most of the other guys have had at least occasional setbacks. Turner’s come on strong without any hiccups to speak of.
Cubs and Jared Mitchell
My feeling on this draft is that it’ll be closer to the 2007 draft than the 2008, and as such, I could see a positional player be popped in the first round. I think the first round pick will still loosely be BPA, and Mitchell does feel like a possible BPA pick as well. I wonder what type of power potential Mitchell has, though, as that’s one thing that’s really lacking in the system. That said, he certainly feels like a possible Wilken OF pick, and has solid athletic potential. I’d be fine with this pick.

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