MOD: Orioles
by crawdaddy on May 18, 2009 1:17 PM EDT
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Stotle (Nick James) and I (Jon Shepherd) run the site Camden Depot.
Our selections will be 1:5, 2:5, and 3:5. At the moment we are considering these players for the 5 slot in the first:
Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, UNC
Alex White, RHP, UNC
Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capastrano HS (CA)
Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth (Indy)
Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)
Tanner Scheppers, St. Paul (Indy)
Feel free to advise.
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Scheppers
I think Scheppers is potentially a very solid pick there. As I have mentioned elsewhere, what concerns me about him is his shoulder. I do not believe the specific injury was ever mentioned publicly and I don’t know what the current state of that shoulder is. He has a solid fastball and uses a plus breaking ball. With a poor shoulder, it might minimize the effectiveness of that breaking ball as he may need to throw it less to prevent stress on his shoulder. If everything is sound, he would be a nice pick as he is a top talent and he should sign very reasonably and early in the process. We could then use the saved money on overslotting players later on.
Top of the Head 1-7
Hi all. Happy to be discussing the O’s draft at MinorLeagueBall.com!
We’re just getting into full swing with our reports, but I was up in Boston this past week/weekend for the UNC/BC series. White pitched on a cold and rainy day, showing a good sinker, low-90s fastball velocity (he touched 94 and 96) and a fringy breaking ball that didn’t have much going for it. The UNC relief arms were as expected and Ackley feasted on some beat-up BC pitching but was a bit too passive at times (for my taste).
In addition to the names above listed by Jon, we’ll be considering:
Shelby Miller
Donovan Tate
Kyle Gibson
Jacob Turner
Zach Wheeler
Our Top 10 right now is still in great flux as we look over notes from the games we’ve scouted and continue to examine video — LOOSELY I’m sitting around here (we haven’t sat down to do a joint board yet):
1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Tyler Matzek
3. Donovan Tate
4. Grant Green
5. Alex White
6. Dustin Ackley
7. Kyle Gibson
8. Aaron Crow
9. Zach Wheeler
10. Matthew Purke
Looking forward to discussing these players and many more over the next three weeks!
by Stotle on May 18, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm a bit surprised....
…to see Tate and Green so high on your board – the consensus has been that both are dropping, while Ackley has been a big riser.
I like seeing Matzek at the top of the O’s board though. The more I see of him, the more he appears to be the best fit for the Orioles here.
Matzek/White
Whichever one is on the board.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Keep an eye on Gibson
I think the O’s go offense this year. And Green and Tate are the front runners (given the fact that Jack Z and the Mariners are probably going to take Ackley).
Im willing to bet the top 4 picks will be 1) Strasburg, 2) Ackley, 3) Crow, 4) Green, 5) Tate
I personally think that Gibson is not too far from MLB ready (2 years of MiLB ball at most) and would love to see the O’s take him.
I think Gibson has a short path and that he is quite projectable. So, from above . . . are you thinking the Orioles will take Tate? I’m not sure we would devote that much money to a high school outfielder with our current set out there. I’d think it would be a possibility if he was not trying to break the bank on his bonus.
Kyle Gibson
has been rated as high as the second best player in the draft.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on May 19, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Gibson...
To me is not what you are looking for with a top 5 pick unless you are looking for the safe pick. To me a top 5 pick means you are getting a high ceiling talent with a good shot at them reaching that ceiling. Gibson as is to me is a major league starter, but not much better than a mid rotation starter. I am looking for TOR starters at 1:5, someone like Crow, Turner, Scheppers, Purke, or Matzek. Gibson is probably one of the closest to ML ready. If we take a HS arm I would be between Turner and Matzek, but for me this changes almost daily.
Solid #2 starter
I wouldnt necessarily call Gibson safe. He has 2 plus pitches, one plus plus, plus command and a pretty good change up.
I would pass on Scheppers because of the injury history, and maybe even on Crow given the contract questions. That would leave Purke or Matzek. Turner is solid, but Crow is better (and safer).
If Matzek falls to them, its a no brainer.
I personally really like Gibson and would love to see the O’s take him, but I just think they are going to go after offense.
Crow
You still think there are contract questions on Crow? It seems to me he will be rather eager to sign. Losing another year is not going to help him secure more money as it will be delaying free agency. Plus, an event of injury would hurt him next year.
Good point
If I’m a GM, I steer clear of problem children though. How far was he and the Nats apart last year? It was a pretty small number. Do you think he signs for slot?
I think he signs for slot and does it fairly quickly. I think what happened last year was as much his fault if not more so . . . the Nationals fault. I think waiting a year hurt him and he cannot afford to sit out another year. That would surely cost him a year of free agency. So . . . I’m not sure I would call him a problem. Nats front office was a wreck.
It was a small number, but it was equally the Nats fault. They stopped negotiating with him. He may even have said he would take the Nats offer, but the Nats declined….somethign along those lines. But Crow will easily sign this year and would start at A+…..IM pretty sure any college pitcher we draft will go to A+. It would be nice if he could go there, dominate and be promoted to Bowie before the end of the year. If Matusz would have done that last year, we would be talking about a mid-late season call up for him this year.
Well . . . I don’t think the Orioles would have let Matusz pitch enough for that to have happened last year. Crow, on the other hand, has not pitched much this season and it would greatly benefit him to sign early and get started.
He didn't make a good faith effort to sign
He talked to the Nats FO right after he was picked, and then didn’t respond to them until the week of the deadline.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2008/08/more_than_3700_words_from_jim.html
I dont know if that warrant them to just ignore the offer they come up with. This to me would have come down to the big picture, which is making your ball club better rather than worry about a stupid pride issue, which IMO was what it was about…..Atleast it didnt go down like the Alvarez situation….. That was ridiculous and last time I checked he had been stinking it up. He apparently hasnt had a good year since his sophomore year and is making some people question whether he is a bust. I personally think he is going to break out soon, but I would be pretty upset right now if I was a Pirates fan……
Ostensibly, my guy at 1:5 at this moment is Scheppers. I feel he simply has the best stuff (non-Strasburg division) in this year’s class – plus fastball, plus slider, great frame. The fact that he should be an easy sign (around slot) just sweetens the deal – hopefully, it will allow the Orioles to re-invest in the 5-15 range, where there is some intriguing talent.
That said, however, one guy who is REALLY impressing me of late is Mike Leake. Despite his smaller stature and a lack of projection, he already boasts a plus fastball, plus changeup, and fringe-to-average curve and slider. Combined with low-90s velocity (touching 93-94 when necessary), a loose, live arm, and absolutely plus-PLUS command of his arsenal (better than Strasburg, in my opinion), that sounds like TOR upside to me. I’m really sold – and perhaps unduly biased – on the great changeup, though. This is usually the last weapon to develop, and one of the biggest hurdles between A-ball and the upper minors / Major League success. Is Leake too much of a stretch at 1:5?
Stotle: Green over Ackley still? Not to rekindle an old OH debate, but buh?!? I think it’s a moot point anyway, as I’m all but certain Ackley goes #2 both here and in the real draft :D
Regarding Mike Leake
Leake was the most fun to watch of all the players I’ve seen this year. His fastball had great life and USC couldn’t square-up at all. His secondary stuff is solid and, as you point out, his command is great. Coach Murphy does nothing but gush about the kid, and he’s been very good pretty much forever. I think he’s a bit of a stretch, but to be fair his skill set would usually land him in the mid- to late-1st, and even the supplemental. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up going in the top 10, and that’s high praise for his pitchability, makeup, etc.
If you haven’t seen it, here is the video I took from the game I attended:
Mike Leake Bullpen
Oops, I forgot his bullpen session (here): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY7bo6s9Xsc
Though I’m still finalizing our report, I guess I can go on the record and say that over the course of the 6-8 times I’ve seen Ackley play I have been impressed but not blown away. He truly excels at getting the bat to the ball — I have no doubt he has plus-plus hit tool upside. But I’ve seen his power mostly against slightly lesser pitching and I’m just not sold on the power coming. He’s also a little passive at times, which works if you’re Adam Dunn and hitting homeruns at a solid pace. If you’re letting hittable pitches go (and striking out) in key situations while mixing in singles and doubles, it’s less useful (though obviously that is nitpicking a bit).
Further, to me, Ackley’s questions in CF are as large as Green’s at SS. Note – I’m admittedly higher on Green defensively than almost anyone I’ve seen or read this year, so I understand I’m the outlier there. But should Ackley need to move to a corner or back to 1B, I just don’t like the bat enough there.
I see Green’s flaws as correctable. While my power rating would be down slightly from when we issued our report, I still think he has 50/55 potential.
I agree Ackley will likely go to SEA, and they’ll likely be very happy with a safe bet to be good ML value. For me, I think there are slightly better upside picks with not much more risk. I go that route with the confidence that I’m getting great value the rest of the way through the draft, as well. In other words, everything isn’t hinging on my first pick. If that makes sense……?
by Stotle on May 19, 2009 2:12 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Unless Ackley
is available at 5, and the chances of that are .17%. I don’t believe that the Orioles plan on deviating from the franchise’s philosophy under Andy to grow arms and buy bats. taking that into consideration I believe it will come down to the trio of Crowe/White/Gibson. Heading into the 2nd round and sticking with the pitcher theme,Tanner Scheppers would be an extremely high risk high reward pick here. He shoulder has been labeled as “healed” and sitting at 92-94 with his fastball and touching 97-98. Then after that arms and toolsy players kinda in the mold of Hoes and Avery.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
What is going on with Crow and Scheppers? Its been over a week since they last pitched. Or maybe they have pitched again and it just isnt being reported. Anyone have any idea? Does anyone have a good site to use to keep up with their progress? The American association website is worthless, according to it they havent pitched bu 1 game each
Local papers?
It looks like Crow on Wednesday.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Yeah.
It seems the current flow has Crow being mentioned the guy they are looking at. There has just been so much movement lately and, to some extent, one wonders how much of it is from the team and how much of it is one writer seeing what another one does and having it snowball.
Writers who don't actually see prospects
Most definitely piggyback off each other, as do regular posters on blogs/forums.
If Jim Callis goes to a SoCal – ASU game and sees flaws in Green’s footwork, the rumors begin to spread and suddenly Grant Green may not be a top ten pick because he doesn’t have the arm to stick at SS.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Right . . . it is rather impossible to see everyone, but it seems a number of guys do not even take the effort. It is like Grant Green. I think it was Kieth Law who questioned Green’s range . . . then everyone went against Green. At Camden Depot, we saw nothing wrong with Green’s range. We do not think he is going to be a gold glover, but we thought he looked fine. A few days back now, Jim Callis says he will be a borderline gold glover. Weirdness.
thoughts
As much as I agree with the concept of not drafting for need in baseball, the Orioles are completely bereft of talent at SS, and a college SS like Green could rise quickly and be the starting SS in little time. Assuming he is still there at 5 I don’t see why you don’t take him.
All this assuming of course that he sticks at SS.
I'm confused
Does BAL have outstanding options at 1B or 2B or 3B? I have no problem with considering position, but other than C, CF and RF, its not like the orioles have such a surplus of longterm talent at any position
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by OldProspects on May 26, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
But my point is that the Orioles don’t have an especial need at SS rather than those other positions. In other words, BPA and need is for them almost identical
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 27, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he was arguing my point that I would take Green because the lack of talent in the organization at SS. I didn’t say that we were loaded at any other position either, simply that we needed a SS and there should be a good one available at 5 that I think I would take. Obviously if Ackley fell I would take him in a heartbeat, but I put that as unrealistic, and I dont see another infield bat with top half of the first round talent.
That said, as Ive spent some time looking at tape of Green I think his CCL numbers may have left me biased and I would consider Scheppers. Davidson is another guy I like, but I think he’s a reach at that spot. Especially because Ive seen him projected to possibly drop.
I have no problem with the Orioles taking Grant Green
if they think he’s the best player available. If they think a pitcher is the best player available, they might as well take him, because they need pitchers as much as they do a starting SS
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 31, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Ackley, Crow, Matzek
Those are my top 3. But I could switch Matzek with Turner or Wheeler easy enough.
Sorry for the delay..
We’ll have more info on Ackley, White, Gibson and Purke up shortly. Let us know if there are other names you think BAL should target that we are missing. Thanks!
I’m imagining Strasburg isn’t mentioned because we know that other teams will take him. Are there any other players that receive that designation?
It would be just lovely if Dustin Ackley fell to us. He’d be my first choice of the guys listed.
Umm… there seems to be a lot of support for High School pitchers. I must say I can’t understand that, these guys fail at incredible rates. Adam Loewen is pretty much the expectation of a high school arm drafted this early, and with such a high pick, we can do so much better.
Grant Green wouldn’t be a bad choice. His position and defense really help.
It’s a little sad to see a draft with such a dearth of top notch position players. Seems like Ackley, Tate and Green are our only options, and Tate just doesn’t make a lot of sense for reasons already stated.
I like Kyle Gibson the best of the college pitchers… but I don’t have much reason for preferring him to Aaron Crow.
I guess my board would look like
1) Strasbrurg
2) Ackley
3) Gibson
4) Crow
5) Green
but 3-5 are pretty close and Alex White is nice too, but I think Gibson is just better than White, with more Ks and fewer BBs.
Actually . . . no.
High school pitchers do not fail at incredible rates. They certainly seem less successful than college southpaw pitchers, but not considerably less successful than right handed college pitchers. One of the strengths of selecting a good, somewhat polished high school pitcher is that you get to control their development.
The Os will pick the best player at the time
None of that drafting for needs. MacPhail has said he’ll develop arms and trade for bats. If Green has indeed fallen off, a pitcher will be drafted, my guess Scheppers or Crow.
The Os need to get back to their tradition of pitching and defense, and continuing to take pitchers high in the draft will rectify that issue. Look at the Big 3 right now, they’re all 1-5 round guys. Not to mention that Tillman was a high school drafted pitcher.
Shelby Miller
Apparently the O’s have been watching him, I think he will be the pick if Ackley is indeed gone.
New Scouting Reports
Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, UNC
Alex White, RHP, UNC
Zack Wheeler, East Paulding HS (GA)
Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona St.
Sean Black, RHP, Seton Hall
by crawdaddy on May 27, 2009 8:17 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Current Top 15
So, with the new reports we’ve listed our top 10 board with the guys under consideration for 1:5 selection. Here is where we stand, as well as the next 5. Keep in mind, this will jumble around a bit due to some signing demands which are slowly trickling out (look for Tate to drop on our board out of the first round and into 2:5 or 3:5 consideration):
1. Strasburg
2. Matzek
3. Tate
4. Green
5. White
6. Ackley
7. Wheeler, Zack
8. Crow
9. Miller
10. Gibson
11. Davidson
12. Scheppers
13. Turner
14. Purke
15. Leake
Let us know if there is anyone specific you’d like some info on. The next five reports will be:
Miller
Crow
Strasburg (yawn, right?)
Tate
Gibson
followed by:
Davidson
Scheppers
Turner
Purke
Boxberger
provided we’re still good on time, we’ll take an up close look at some more, including some candidates for 2:5 and 3:5. We’ll also get out some Quick Hits which cover five or so players at a time with a quick look at what we see in our scouting review.
Keep the convo coming!
by Stotle on May 27, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Revised Schedule
Just finished reports on:
Davidson
Turner
Purke
Krol
Next up:
Gibson
Scheppers
Crow
Miller
Tate
I believe that will cover all the bases for 1:5 targets.
Looking ahead to 2:5, we have some HSers in mind, generally. 3:5 and 4:5 back to college (most likely bats), and 5:5 – 10:5 just best available, including some signability fliers.
Early next week
I’ll post a comment with links to all the available reports — should make referencing/discussing the players easier once we start whittling down to our top 10 targets for each slot in this mock.
Don't like Wheeler at 5
Your 2nd and 3rd picks are fine, but of all the guys there at 5 I just don’t like Wheeler.
There is something in his delivery that scares the crap out of me. He get his elbow in a position that I worry that he will put too much pressure on it and blow it out.
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