Strasburg against the Field
by OldProspects on May 17, 2009 11:31 PM EDT
43 comments
So, VariablesDont has started a mini-uproar by arguing that there is a better prospect than Strasburg in the draft. Ignoring for the moment whether he's right or not about their being a single prospect who's better than Strasburg, if you had to bet who would be the best player to come from the 2009 draft, and your choices were either Stephen Strasburg or all of the other players, who would you choose?
Personally, though I suspect that Strasburg has the best chance to be a star, and even a superstar, I'd guess that there is more than a 50% chance that one of the other players drafted will out-play him, either because of the essential uncertainty that faces pitchers, or that that faces all prospects, no matter their position. In other words, I don't mind VariablesDont's theoretical argument. Where I disagree with him is that if you gave me the choice between Strasburg and any single prospect (which he effectively has, with the first pick), I'd go Strasburg. What are your thoughts?
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shouldn't even be close
Strasburg is one player. There are so many things that would have to go absolutely perfect for him, especially as a pitcher, to be more valuable than every other member of this class that the odds are mind boggling. Strasburg is an elite talent, but the field is far too large to bet against.
by loop on May 18, 2009 1:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll play both sides
I would take strasburg over the field assuming health.
so in a perfect world if every prospect had a healthy career, id take strasburg over the field.
by hotshotschamp on May 18, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seems like you're asking two different questions...
One question is: Who will be better Strasburg or anyone else drafted? The answer there is pretty clear as loop mentions. Given baseball’s history, the odds are against Strasburg being better than everyone else.
The other question is: Is Strasburg better than any other single person in the draft? That answer is also kinda obvious, Strasburg is clearly the best single player in the draft.
So if I was picking #1 then I’d take Strasburg.
If I was picking #1, and someone wanted to offer me the chance to trade Strasburg for the right to claim the best performer from the rest of the draft, then I’d take that.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on May 18, 2009 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
But I just wanted to clarify the point that is, as you note, obvious, that though VD is un-wise to bet on any particular player not named Stephen Strasburg, he could be right
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by OldProspects on May 18, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right...
Strasburg has the best chance of being the best, so if VD picks any one player other than Strasburg, then odds are he’ll be wrong. Otherwise that player would be drafted first over Strasburg.
But the odds are greater that Strasburg won’t be the best player drafted, than they are that he will be.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on May 18, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
So it’s mis-guided, but not necessarily wrong. In a few months or years, we could very well look significantly more foolish than he does now
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by OldProspects on May 18, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
obviously
i mean, what’s your point? if i guy bets the rent on the Reds to win the World Series this year, he’s not necessarily wrong. he’s dumb, but not necessarily wrong.
but no one has ever claimed that it’s a 100% certainty that Strasburg will be the best player in the draft. this is baseball and these are prospects, there’s no such thing as certainty — that’s the fun. that doesn’t make it’s not silly to pick the Reds to win it all just as it’d be silly to pick someone other than Strasburg 1st overall.
by scooter on May 18, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely
I just wanted to temper the criticism of him
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by OldProspects on May 18, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm still missing the point...
Not sure why I keep posting, I guess I’m just curious…
So did VD suggest the Nats pick someone other than Strasburg #1? If he did, then I would say that’s pretty foolish (although I’d be curious to hear who he’d take and the rationale).
The hypothetical doesn’t have any real world application, but is interesting. The fact that the best prospect coming into the draft has little chance of being the best player selected, even if they are unanimously selected as the best player available.
It seems he made the more theoretical point, not suggesting the nats pick someone else and so why would he be criticized?
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on May 18, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, there wasn't very much of a point
VD made a post suggesting that the Nationals pick somebody else (who he refuses to name) instead of Strasburg. He was criticized by many people (including myself). While reading the thread, I was struck, though, by the point that even though we all agree (except for him) that Strasburg is the best prospect, we’re also all agreed that there is a pretty good shot that Strasburg will end up not being the best major leaguer. This isn’t a very innovative point, but it interested me.
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by OldProspects on May 18, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand...
and the whole reason why I kept posting to this thread is because it is interesting to consider that Strasburg will be outdone by the field. It just seems strange.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on May 19, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, of course he might end up being the best player
But it’s by no means certain. The best parallel might be to Joe Mauer and Mark Prior. There also, Mark Prior was the best single prospect, but ultimately the Twins got more for their pick than did the Cubs. I just wanted to insert a note of restraint into this discussion – not the most original thing, but I thought it might be useful
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by OldProspects on May 19, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He absolutely deserves to get criticised
I think you are missing the point. Of course Strasburg might not be the best player in the draft. It is even likely that he won’t be the best player in the draft, but he has a much better chance than anyone else in the draft to be the best player in the draft. Lets say for arguments sake his alternative choice is Alex White. What do you think the spread would be if the poll was who will be the best player out of the 2009 draft – Alex White or Anybody else? It certainly wouldn’t be a 40/60 split. Yes Strasburg might not be the best player but predicting who will be is an almost impossible task.
Extreme examples but who thought that Roger Clemens would be the best player in the 1983 draft, Piazza in 1988, Pujols in 1999 or even Chase Utley in 2000? On the flip side the consensus thought A-Rod and Griffey Jr to be the top talents in a number of years and that has proven to be correct. You have to play the odds
by DeJay on May 19, 2009 6:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
And if you note, I said that I was one of the ones who were criticizing him. My point was to temper the criticism. I’m not saying anything too dramatic here. In case it wasn’t clear the half-dozen other times I said it, I would also pick Strasburg with the #1 pick because I think he has the best chance to be the best player.
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by OldProspects on May 19, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you said you would take Strasburg
You also presented the alternative point of view which I was arguing against.
Another thing to note is that the Nats would be castigated by their own fans if they didn’t take Strasburg. Not a reason to make a wrong decision but it might stop them shying away from passing on him, especially in their current state.
by DeJay on May 19, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Process v. Results
The Prior v. Mauer comp doesn’t really hold. Both players were legit #1 guys, most people just liked Prior better. You won’t find much criticism of the Twins in that draft. This draft has an obvious #1, and the only reason not to take him would be if a team had no faith in college pitching (the least successful player type in the draft).
VD (awful choice of intials, btw) would also probably be getting a little less flack if had given any account of why he didn’t have Strasburg #1. As it stands, everyone and there mom agrees that Strasburg is the best bet, except for VD who is being deliberately obfuscatory.
by aCone419 on May 19, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More
Take an analogy from Hold ’Em: The best hand to be dealt is Ace-Ace, but there is still a pretty decent chance that one of the other hands at the table will beat you, especially if there is large number of players. However, without any information from the future (or card counting), you would be a complete idiot to trade that hand for Jack-Ten off-suit or something, even if that hand ends winning the pot.
by aCone419 on May 19, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-A
That’s actually a great analogy. Everyone agrees there’s no better hand to have to start, yet the more people that are in the pot, the lesser the chances A-A holds up.
by guru4u on May 19, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And extending the analogy a bit
AA holds up more often when there are fewer hands out there, so you raise to eliminate the random flushes and straights that come with hands like 4d2d and 86o.
This isn’t a direct parallel with the MLB draft, but by almost universal acclaim this draft class seems to be held in not very high regard. (Or else I’m mistaking the gulf between #1 and everyone else for a weak draft class overall.) But if indeed there are fewer premier, stud prospects out there and the class as a whole isn’t very strong, then there’s also more chance Strasburg will emerge as the greatest 2009 draftee, though he still likely wouldn’t be favored against the field.
by Flynn Blake on May 19, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many 1:1's have been the best of their drafts? Less than a half dozen?
Obviously, there are guys like Chipper Jones and A-Rod who were. Obviously, the consensus is that Strasburg is abnormally removed from the pack in his status as 1:1. And obviously, none of this should stop a team from taking the best player. Drafting David Wright over Mark Prior would absolutely not have made sense at the time, even though Wright has turned out a tad better.
by aap212 on May 18, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
common
a tad?
:)
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 18, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, a tad
As in, slightly less than the difference between the outcome of drafting Matt Harrington and Chase Utley the year before. Small margins here, Metty. :)
by aap212 on May 18, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mauer
He wasn’t a consensus number 1, but he is the best player from that draft.
by jahs34 on May 18, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes but...
I went with Prior because he’s the best recent analogy for Strasburg, and if it weren’t for his asking price or the Twins having the top pick, he would have been 1:1. The Twins happened to make a great decision, but it’s one probably only they would have made.
by aap212 on May 18, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Can’t believe this poll is even close.
Looking back at the last 44 years of the draft’s history, only 3 players-Griffey (87), Chipper (90) and A-Rod (93)- who were drafted #1 overall where the possible best players in the entire year’s draft. Notice that none of them were pitchers.
- overall pitchers
1973 David Clyde (bust)
1976 Floyd Bannister (solid big leaguer)
1981 Mike Moore (average big leaguer)
1983 Tim Belcher (below average big leaguer)
1988 Andy Benes (average big leaguer)
1989 Ben McDonald (average big leaguer)
1991 Brien Taylor (bust)
1994 Paul Wilson (bust)
1996 Kris Benson (average big leaguer)
1997 Matt Anderson (bust)
2002 Bryan Bullington (bust)
2006 Luke Hochevar (average big leaguer)
2007 David Price (over-hyped?)
This does not even include the most hyped college pitcher in the draft era prior to Strausberg- Mark Prior (bust), who went #2 overall to the Cubs in 2001.
Give me the field…. all-day, every-day!
"In 1962 I was named Minor League Player of the Year. It was my second season in the Bigs." - Mr. Baseball, Bob Uecker
by prince of power on May 18, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think its because the question is confusing...
The question he asks at the end of the summary was Strasburg against any single prospect, which doesn’t seem to be what he leads the poll question with or what the poll question seems to be asking, which is who will be better Strasburg or anybody else, and obviously odds are that one of anybody else will be better.
Poster formerly known as artie
by beastball on May 18, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
that is how i interpreted the question.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on May 18, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Easy there
I think calling David Price over-hyped already is a little insane. The guy made the majors and starred in the playoffs his first full year in pro ball. And while your premise is correct, comparing Strasburg to guys like Bullington and Anderson, who were ridiculous picks, or Hochevar, who was a strange pick in a weak/odd draft class isn’t quite a fair analogy. Taylor, Wilson, and McDonald are more useful for demonstrating the many things that can go wrong for any given elite pitching prospect. But at least the Nats will probably keep Dallas Green away from Strasburg.
by aap212 on May 18, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question
is the probablity one someone being overhyped the same as the probablity that they are underhyped, all else equal?
by son.of.sourman on May 18, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...
With respect to everyone else drafted #1, the current belief is that Strasburg is on a Griffey/A-Rod level as a prospect as opposed to a Hochevar or Bullington. Obviously the #1 pick each year isn’t on equal standing in terms of ability. While there is risk with every pick (and more-so with pitchers), Griffey and A-Rod both had the same hype Strasburg is getting now and both easily lived up to it…Strasburg who has been talked about for some 2 years now is near that level.
by metafour on May 19, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, don't forget
Todd Van Poppel was the most hyped High School pitcher EVER (#14 overall in 1990) and he also turned out to be a bust.
"In 1962 I was named Minor League Player of the Year. It was my second season in the Bigs." - Mr. Baseball, Bob Uecker
by prince of power on May 18, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He was a lock to be the next Nolan Ryan if I remember correctly
"Forget it Donny, you're out of your element"-Walter Sobchak
by icanplaythird on May 18, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was a bust
but he wasn’t helped by the major league contract he signed. His command clearly needed working on, even in the lower minors, but the A’s were forced to promote him agressively even though it was obvious he was not ready.
by DeJay on May 19, 2009 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
too bad
you can’t draft the field.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOOLOLOLOLOLOL
by son.of.sourman on May 18, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
-1
Actually, -2. For LOLing at yourself and +1ing yourself too.
by Flynn Blake on May 18, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Price
I put a question mark after my David Price (over hyped?) comment, mainly because I feel he will become a good-great pitcher, but the prospect community has put quite a lot of #1 pitcher in baseball type hype on him. The question mark just means that he has proved very little at the MLB level so far in his short career.
I am very high on Strausberg, but feel that the hype machine is starting to get into unreachable status for him a.k.a. “The greatest pitcher ever drafted…”
I personally feel that he is similar to a college pitching prospect like Justin Verlander (grants with a few more mph on his fastball).
"In 1962 I was named Minor League Player of the Year. It was my second season in the Bigs." - Mr. Baseball, Bob Uecker
by prince of power on May 18, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg
If you could take either Strasburg or every single other player you would obviously take the field. However since it is only 1 v 1 you have to take Strasburg. I would still take Strasburg if it was 1 v 2 or even 1 v 3.
by DeJay on May 19, 2009 6:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
now THAT is actually interesting
it’s obvious that Strasburg is #1 in the field.
it’s obvious that you’d take the field over Strasburg.
I’m not sure why either is being debated.
but at what point would you not take Strasburg (or not take the field)?
would you take Strasburg over every player taken after the first ten picks? every player taken after the first round? I saw the numbers on how few players make it to the pros who aren’t 1st rounders, and it’s not many. I’d have to look at those specifically, as I forget the details, but all players taken after round 1 is where I’d begin to think that Strasburg might have a chance to be the better pick.
by scooter on May 20, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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