VD's 1st 'natinal' MOD
by variablesdont on May 15, 2009 1:36 PM EDT
58 comments
okay, so, this is unprecedented. the nationals have two of the top 10 picks in this year's draft (including the first overall), plus a new stadium from which to draw revenue, and an unchallenged talent at the top of the board, who is being described as the best pitching prospect of the decade.
firstly, our picks:1, 10, 50, 81
i've got a history doing these mockdrafts. up until about the 3rd round of last year's mock, i've mostly selected guys that i'd designated beforehand as my targets. that meant that instead of selecting kasey kiker in the supplemental round of the 2006 iteration, i went with max sapp.
for instance, last year, drafting for the phillies, i started off the draft with 5 straight college pitchers (ross, stewart, putnam, lindblom, green), 3 of them being relievers. i'm pretty satisfied with how that looks right now, but at the time, it was pretty damn ballsy. that's kinda how i like to do it
my board right now looks like this:
#2: strasborg
#1: unnamed draft prospect who boxkutter could probably tell you, but i'd cut off his manram if he did
in the next mod, i'll expand on my disinterest in comrade strasborg, and i'll maybe open up about my massive mancrush on that other guy who i think is a better bet.
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Youre going to get skewered if you dont take Strasburg.
by alskor on May 15, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i can make a pretty good case for the guy i want at #1
i’ve got an excellent feel for him, and he really is awesome at what he does.
i make a point of visiting this page every so often, just to remind myself how broken pitcher progression is.
a guy like edwin jackson can look like a stud at age 19, and then proceed to shit the bed for a half decade, only to reemerge better than ever at age 24. a guy like wandy rodriguez can be average for his whole minor league career, and then break out at age 28 and become one of the best LHPers in baseball.
i’ve been around for a while, and for the last 5 years i’ve been focusing on finding guys like wandy rodriguez and edwin jackson, but also ricky romero and shaun marcum, and rob tejeda and gavin floyd. i’ve advanced this to the point that i’ve actually come around to the opinion that finding and developing good young pitching is so easy that it doesn’t make any sense to pay top dollar for any one of them.
i’ll admit that i do have a blind spot with guys like strasborg. i looked at clayton kershaw, and tim lincecum, and felix hernandez and phil hughes, and i didn’t bat an eye. i see tommy hanson and i know he’s a great pitcher, but at the same time, it does nothing for me. i mean, what does it matter to say a great pitcher is great; it’s a wasted breath. i get that same feeling with strasborg, and it’s not one that i like.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on May 15, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what does this mean?
“i see tommy hanson and i know he’s a great pitcher, but at the same time, it does nothing for me. i mean, what does it matter to say a great pitcher is great; it’s a wasted breath. i get that same feeling with strasborg, and it’s not one that i like.”
your writing isn’t at all clear (or maybe by reading skills are the issue). but, anyway, sounds like you don’t want a great pitcher like Hanson (or Lincecum) and that’s the reason you won’t be selecting Strasburg. I doubt that’s your point, though….but what is your point?
by scooter on May 15, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buying for the moment the argument that Strasburg isn't as good of a prospect as your guy
Why won’t you tell us who he is? You have the #1 pick – why should it be a secret? Unless you think that there’s a chance that the other guy will be available with the #10 pick, in which case shouldn’t you wait and find out, considering how high of a price tag you could get by picking Strasburg and dealing him in a year?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 15, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really pay much attention to the mock drafts
And I don’t totally understand everybody’s motivation for participating, but people seem to take this pretty seriously. A lot of people seem to be putting a lot of time into this and if not taking Strasburg is going to make things go all wonky, you sort of owe it to them to take him.
Like I said, I’m on the outside looking in with only mild interest, but I’ve always understood this to be something where people tried to behave as the expected their teams to behave. The Nationals are going to take Strasburg and picking someone else would be excessively contrarian.
I might have misunderstood the goals of the project though. Taking someone else would make things interesting I guess.
by OldDutchPots on May 15, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
It's just an opportunity for the poster to make the draft be about himself...
rather than participating in it for what it is meant to be. Yawn.
by PissedMick on May 15, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
Glad somebody had the sense to say it.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on May 15, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Think He's Mistaken
I don’t want Strasborg either. However I am a fan of Strasburg.
A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.
a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
by cwhitman412 on May 15, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
First Mock GM Firing
Can a mock GM be fired, if so, let’s fire this guy. Not take Strasburg, cause I can find Gavin Floyd, awesome. Nothing says top of the rotation starter like Edwin Jackson.
by SoCal760 on May 15, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nonsense
vd can grab Dustin Ackley or another really good bat if he can find cheap pitching from other teams. If someone could pull off a rotation of Floyd/Jackson/Rodriguez/Romero/Marcum, that guy’s got a cheap, good rotation full of upside that cost him pennies on the dollar. Meanwhile, those high draft picks can be used for bats… lots and lots of really good, really cheap bats.
Totally a legitimate strategy- take advantage of what people overvalue. Now, if it was me, I’d draft Strasburg and flip him for a package of those underrated guys as a PTBNL.
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 15, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't take advantage of what people overvalue...
by avoiding what most people value in the first place. What you are talking about is something completely different than what VD is doing. There’s no “advantage” to be made in skipping over Strasburg.
by PissedMick on May 15, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Poor choice of words then
But there is an advantage to be had if you believe there is a better prospect than Strasburg out there. Better is, of course, a subjective term, but if VD believes better exists, more power to him to select that player.
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 16, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
VD doesn’t believe “better exists”. He says so in his first sentence, when he calls Strasburg “an unchallenged talent at the top of the board”. Of course, he can’t spell Strasburg’s name, but that’s what he meant, it would seem.
It seems pretty clear that he’s pulling this shit as an attention grab. He very clearly went out of his way to take the Nationals in order to make waves regarding Strasburg. He conceded that “there’s not a great 2nd option available” after John asked him to take Strasburg, and then proceeded to admit that he really just wanted to run an experiment of what the draft would look like with Strasburg at #2… Essentially hijacking the mock draft for a subject that he could have just as easily made into a FanPost. And make no mistake, this site could use some quality content-based fanposts, so it would have been a valuable contribution.
You also have to realize that this draft is actual coverage for a good portion of outside readers. John’s mock draft is usually only from Rounds 1 and 1S, and this is a free, 3-round mock draft that proves a good alternative to subscriber-based options like BA and PG (again, for the outside reader). How much credibility will our mock lose right off the bat if Strasburg isn’t #1? Think about it- I am 100% positive that this annual mock draft brings traffic to the site. You’re not just hurting the other drafters, you’re hurting John and the site, too.
So, no, not “more power to him”. He’s making a sad grab for attention- for the next couple weeks, he’ll play up this “alternate player” angle, and then at the last second take Strasburg because he knows that a.) he’s the true best and most likely pick for Washington and b.) he will be devoured by the community, John, and outside readers if he doesn’t.
by RedSoxFaithful on May 16, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
No to your no
1. VD called Strasburg an “unchallenged talent”, but odds are that was sarcasm. Note how he calls someone else a better bet, and mentions that he’s going to expand on why Strasburg is less than advertised.
2. Who cares if he’s pulling this as an attention grab? Seattle grabs Strasburg at #2 and everyone walks out happy. Not only that, but maybe he’ll present a viable criticism of Strasburg. It is possible he isn’t Baseball Jesus, and it should be interesting to see someone make that case in full.
3. Jacking the draft? VD specifically said he was not going to in the comments. John did ask him to select Strasburg, but VD is still the scouting director. Don’t you think if John had a problem, he would have removed him? Also, isn’t it remotely possible that people coming in to read this mock will be intrigued enough to actually read why VD didn’t select Strasburg?
Look, I don’t agree with his decision. I think it would be pants-on-head retarded to pass up Strasburg. That being said, I’m interested in why VD is so anti-Strasburg. If he wants to use this as an outlet by which to do so, that’s fine by me. Besides, I have this sneaking feeling that VD is going after the guy I really want with #9 (probably to prove a point as well, but hey, it hurts me a bunch too).
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 16, 2009 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, there is
but that’s not all of what this is about.
i legitimately think there’s another player in this draft whose value rivals strasburg (and it’s not dustin ackley), but even so, there’s more to it than that.
strasburg unquestionably has the most upside of any player in this draft, and maybe even any player in the last 10 drafts, but in this case, i think there’s a legitimate barrier in his way that could keep him from reaching his upside.
i’ll try to get this down more succinctly than i did in emailing john. basically, i view strasburg to be a show horse. he gets a lot of Ks, but in doing so, he wastes a lot of pitches. the pitcher to which i’d compare him is rich harden. by that, i mean that he’ll rack up tons of Ks, but be terribly inefficient in doing it. he’ll have a ton of games where his line is awesome, 5.2 IP, 2 H, 10 Ks, but if he’s that prolific in striking batters out, those Ks will come at the expense of IP, and that is not what i view WAS’s need to be.
and that’s not the only concern i have. i think his transition from a 7 day collegiate routine to a 5 day professional routine will be especially difficult because of his tremendous velocity. at SDSU, he’s only throwing competitively every friday, but come april of next year, he’s gonna be in a completely new situation. it’s pretty much a given that strasburg’s gonna dominate wherever he starts, but going from there, i see a lot of potential for problems. if he’s still throwing 102 come june of next year, well, that’s a lot of stress to be putting on his arm over a 5 month season, with him taking the bump every 5th day for a minor league affiliate. and if he’s not throwing 102, then WAS’s not getting what they paid for.
and if he is throwing 102, and he is throwing it for the ML team, then that’s 6 months of stress to be putting his arm at age 22 at a time when he’s making a pretty damn big adjustment against pretty damn awesome competition.
i guess i just think there’s a lot of moving parts for him to get it right.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on May 16, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mmm hmm...
A. What is the correlation between pitcher velocity and arm trouble? James found that velocity and K/9 were strongly correlated with a pitcher’s longevity.
B. If you were going to imagine a better pitcher than Strasburg, what would he do? Strike fewer people out? Not throw so hard? If you thought this was a good philosophy, couldn’t you take the guy with the best tools imaginable and tell him to pitch like a better version of Roy Halladay? There’s no reason you can’t tell Strasburg to take a little off the fastball (for what purpose, I don’t know—his control can’t possibly get much better) or pitch to contact more.
C. If this isn’t just about bringing attention to yourself, why do you title your MOD thread differently than everyone else? No one but you has their name in the title. This is something a lot bigger than you. Don’t screw it up because you think people will find your contrarian stance so interesting. They won’t. Write a fanpost about how you’re smarter than everyone else on this, and take Strasburg.
by PissedMick on May 16, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
His control
could get a little better.
It is pretty damn good, but it isn’t perfect either.
He will get in ruts of overthrowing the FB and miss a little bit
by nms on May 17, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's walking 1.7 guys per 9
and his K:BB is almost 10:1—I’d be interested in seeing how much better Strasburg’s control can possibly get.
by PissedMick on May 18, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then take the guy you like at #10
Because if the guy you are talking about is not Ackley then he’s going to be there at #10 – unless you are talking about Grant Green in which case you should not be a GM… because there is no way to can say Green is a comparable value to Strasburg.
The Nats have the money to go above slot at #10. They’ve gone above slot at various points in the draft where it has made sense
by SLK on May 16, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you're not making any relative sense.
Yes, Strasburg’s results will take a bump moving from college to the pros. So will the production of literally every other player in the draft, save for maybe Crow and Scheppers. If you think that a college (or HS, for that matter) player’s velocity will drop moving to the pros, great, I’m sure you could make a very strong argument for that. But doesn’t Strasburg have a better starting velocity to drop from? He could lose a couple MPH, and still be high-90s, while most other pitchers will lose the couple MPH and wind up in the low-90s. You don’t seem to be thinking relatively in this aspect, and you’re docking Strasburg for points that apply to literally all HS/College pitchers.
Has Strasburg showed any inefficiency so far? You seem to think that his K/9 will be very strong in the pros, but his P/PA will rise dramatically. Why? Do you really think that Nats are going to screw with his style of pitching in terms of attacking hitters? I can see a small rise in P/PA, but not enough to bring him under 6 IP/GS. It’s a little weird, because it’s almost like you’re predicting Strasburg to kick ass, but in a worst-case scenario “I’m kicking ass” way. I don’t know what basis you have for that argument.
Again, this is actually producing some decent conversation, and some of the best we’ve had from this community in a while- it just would have been better as a fanpost, not as a hijacking of the mock draft for your own personal views.
by RedSoxFaithful on May 16, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also, couple more things
I’m going to directly quote parts of your message here and reply to them, because I noticed a few things rereading it.
and if he’s not throwing 102, then WAS’s not getting what they paid for.
No, Washington isn’t paying for him to throw 102, nor do I think they would realistically expect that. They’re paying for the game’s best pitching prospect since Mark Prior, and they’re paying for a guy to be a successful pitcher. It has nothing to do with how hard he’s throwing, and if he has to lose a couple MPH in order to be as successful as he can be, then that’s what the Nats will want him to do.
and if he is throwing 102, and he is throwing it for the ML team, then that’s 6 months of stress to be putting his arm at age 22 at a time when he’s making a pretty damn big adjustment against pretty damn awesome competition.
i guess i just think there’s a lot of moving parts for him to get it right.
For him to get it right this year. You forgot the “this year” on that sentence. Look, you’re proving my point with this part. You’re shitting on Strasburg because he might not be able to handle the shift to the majors right out of college, and he might lose a little velocity because of it? Seriously? Just the fact that we are even discussing the probability of Strasburg impacting Washington in 2009 speaks volumes about who you should select. Would any other player from this draft (even including your mystery pick) be able to handle the jump from HS or college or Indy ball to the majors, without losing any velocity or without struggling to make any adjustments? Come on, man. It’s just an asinine argument.
by RedSoxFaithful on May 16, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joke?
I want to believe this statement is a joke. But, I can tell from the tone its not. So, here is what I’ve got from your statements to date.
Because of your worry about starters, or Strasburg in particular, you are not picking a starter. Considering there are at least 8 starters (HS and college) considered for the top 10, you are eliminating most viable options. Other candidates being Green, Ackley and Tate (I believe off the top), and you’ve said its not Ackley. Therefore, I have no idea who you could possibly be taking #1 overall that is a position player and not Ackley.
As to value, you don’t think that people would LOVE to have Harden? He dominates a game for 5-7 innings depending on the day. Harden is STILL one of the top pitchers in the game, despite his low IP propsensity.
As to the transition, that’s the same transition for every starter coming from college ball since… well…ever. There is no difference between Strasburg and any other starter making the transition. If Strasburg could “only” throw 98 in starts on 5 days rest, who would be complaining? The highest average FB velocity is over 95 (see fangraphs). If he’s gunning at 98 mph all the time, no one will complain.
If you come up with someone and come up with an argument, that is acceptable. But to merely stir up controversy by having some “mystery” guy, you are doing a disservice to the whole point of the draft. Really, its no better than Scott Boras’ “mystery bidder”. If you have a guy, you have an argument, people will respond and you can make an informed choice. If you just pick a guy just to be difficult and “surprising”, you shouldn’t be doing this mock draft.
by thudean on May 17, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg
What I find most annoying about this guy is that he continues to type “Strasborg” every single time, and this has continued for at least 3 days. Everyone who responds to him types it correctly, and a few people have even mentioned his misspelling explicitly. I think at this point it is clear that we are either dealing with a child or a douche.
by mkvallely on May 16, 2009 4:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I Think
He’s just thinking of the wrong guy the whole time. Strasburg is the #1 pick and Strasborg is #2.
A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.
a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
by cwhitman412 on May 16, 2009 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
close
this is a borg:
in calling him strasborg, i’m only rubbing off a point that he ain’t all human.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on May 16, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has a valid point
The best for the Nats is just draft Strasburg with the 1st pick because he is by far the best talent and then go to the 10 pick and again draft the BPA. But the truth is if they get Strasburg they probably don’t have money for a good player at #10, taking a lesser talent. Now, if they go the VD route and draft Ackley at #1 and then draft the BPA at #10 probably they can grab more talent than picking Strasburg and a 2nd round talent at #10, plus they save some money because they will be picking 1st every round. They just take Strasburg money and spread all over the draft.
by LCT on May 16, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
take this guy's words with a grain of salt
not sure why anyone on this board is taking this variables guy seriously. he posted drunken messages on this board immediately after the phils won the world series, cursing those (like myself) who said anything critical of his team. he’s completely full of himself and doing this simply because he wants other people to pay attention to him (maybe he’s lacking something in his personal life?)
by psugator on May 16, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
what a joke
and this site had started to get much better in terms of the quality of users.
by jelder09 on May 16, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
VD's been here for years
Like 3… I remember reading his stuff when I lurked here in high school.
by demondeaconsbaseball on May 17, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
There seems to be a lot of heated arguments on this post, I’d just like to say what I see. Although the Nationals would be silly to overlook Strasburg, VD has been able to made a pretty good argument for reasons to take somebody else. He also has been able to make a good counter-argument for pretty much all of the claims made against him, so I don’t think he is a made member of this site, it’s provided me with a pretty interesting read and he voiced something that has been playing in the back of my head after hearing the ridiculous asking price of Strasburg.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 17, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
he is talking about Alex White : )
by joegonzo on May 16, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Son of a bitch!
I was just nearing the end of a long post, and I accidentally navigated away from this page. I hate laptops sometimes.
Anyways, as VD mentioned, I do know the identity of his “mystery player”. But out of respect, I will not disclose who it is.
With that said though, both sides are right. For the benefit of the site, Strasburg should be taken #1 to add realism. But at the same time, VD and others have a point when they say that maybe Strasburg isn’t the best pick for the Nats. I have been posting for months stating that I do not think that SS is the easy pick for the Nationals. They have two Top 10 picks, as well as another 40 players or so they will have to sign from this draft. I think we can all agree that SS is going to get the largest contract ever given to a Rule IV draftee. Not taking SS #1 allows the Nationals to go above slot for the rest of the draft. This increases their chances of getting multiple worthwhile players this year. But, if they do draft and sign SS, they will likely have to go cheap the rest of the draft. That puts all their eggs in the Strasburg handbasket. Not the smartest move to make. As far as I know, the team isn’t exactly selling out their new stadium, so they don’t have that extra revenue right now. Taking Strasburg should help though. But will it be enough?
The point that VD is making is that he views Strasburg as a Harden like player. Maybe a lot of time spent on the DL because of injuries (and many do think SS has a higher injury risk than others because of his greater velocity and questionable mechanics). But let’s say that he can start 32 games a year, if he is comparable to Harden, let’s give him the 6IP average per start (being generous). And let’s give him a nice 3.00 ERA. But let’s say this Mystery Player (and it is a top talent projected to go in the first round this year) can average 7 innings per start at a 3.50 ERA. That’s a 32 inning difference. That is 32 innings you don’t have to have an RP in there. That is 32 innings of RP work you can use to get other starters out of the game before they blow up. That’s only a 16 run difference over the course of 32 starts. One run every other start. But out of the Mystery Player, you get an extra inning per start. Not a bad trade off…. but also the Mystery Player is going to cost just a fraction of what SS will, which will allow you to draft other, better players for the rest of the draft.
I have been in a keeper sim league with VD for about three years now. He scouts players differently from the norm and has different preferences. He is still a young kid, but he has a good head on his shoulders and definitely has the ability to think outside the box. I could never run a team the same way he does, but it’s been effective in our keeper league. He sees things in players that most of us don’t see until it’s obvious. I mean, do you know anyone else who would have signed or drafted Jason Motte 15 months ago in your sim/fantasy leagues? VD did. And then was wise enough to see his falsely high value this off-season and trade him off. VD is definitely not talking of taking someone other than Strasburg just to get attention. He just has a different way of scouting players. We all may not like it (he knows I am much more traditional when it comes to scouting players) but it’s not half-assed, it’s not uninformed, and it’s not just to ruffle feathers.
Just like in poker, if everyone is playing loose, the best way to make money is to play tight. If everyone is playing tight, the best way to make money is to play loose. Going against the grain is sometimes the best way to play. History has shown that those most outrageous thinkers were often the best ones. Of course, many more went down in flames, and not in the history books lol.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on May 18, 2009 3:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So we should trust VD because he drafted Jason Motte in a fantasy league in 2008?
Got it.
by RedSoxFaithful on May 18, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Way to...
take a post that was a few hundred words long and condense it into one small idea. But if that makes it easier for you, then yes. Trust him because he signed Motte (I never said he drafted him, I left it open…) many months before anyone ever heard of him. If you need to make things as simple as you can to understand them, then do it.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on May 18, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, sorry. Actual reply below.
I just hate anecdotes that have literally nothing to do with the conversation at hand.
by RedSoxFaithful on May 18, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh
before anyone in YOUR league knew about him. Don’t assume that he wasn’t on anyone else’s radar.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 18, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is true
i’d heard about motte first on this message board. i’m sure you could go back and find that specific reference, but i don’t think that’ll change anything.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on May 18, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, fine, that's probably not fair
You did make a couple legitimate points, I just still don’t understand where you (meaning VD) are pulling the numbers from.
First of all, there is some evidence to suggest that the Nats have some room to play with. They’ve been saving and allocating money for Strasburg for well over a year now, and I’ve heard a few people say that they’ll have no problem going at or over slot in subsequent picks. So they might not be able to do it with #10, and they’ll have to settle with a Poythress type… What’s wrong with that? They can still go overslot throughout the draft, and I suspect that they plan to.
Second of all, where is the data to suggest that Strasburg will magically drop his IP/GS to 6? Like I said, if you’re worried about an IP/GS drop, you’re worried about it for all amateur pitchers- not just Strasburg. Who’s to say that Mystery Player is not going to be affected by a IP/GS drop? Who’s to say that Mystery Player is going to put up that 3.50 ERA at the MLB level? The mere thought that any of us can accurately project any player from this draft at the MLB level is ludicrous, but it’s certainly easiest to do with Strasburg.
You’re just making
by RedSoxFaithful on May 18, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The numbers...
I am guessing that VD is guessing, just like the rest of us are. He said he expects SS to get about 5.2IP a start, that’s where I got my 6 from. Easier to do the math that way. VD is just saying what more than one person here has stated before. Because Strasburg has faced less than stellar college competition so far, advanced hitters won’t be as intimidated by him. Therefor they won’t be so tentative in the box. They won’t swing at everything that looks even near the strike zone and Strasburg will go deeper into count. The theory is that with SS’s high K totals, he will have a higher pitch count earlier in games and won’t be able to last as long, especially when he has to pitch every fifth day and not every seventh.
I fully think the Nats should take Strasburg though. With all the reasons I stated above, I would still take him if I were in their shoes. If only because the PR hit they would take would be disastrous. I am a Seattle fan though, so I would absolutely love it if they let SS fall to #2. I would love to see a F-Her/Stras 1-2 for years. I am still pissed that they won those couple games the last week of last season to pull ahead of Washington in the standings. I hate to see a team lose games on purpose to get a better draft selection. But two or three games at the end of the season when your team already sucks doesn’t make much of a difference. Of course, with our current regime, they would just make Strasburg a frigging RP anyways lol.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on May 18, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Don’t you think that the Nat’s coaches and/or Steven himself will figure that out and make their own adjustments and throw more strikes? Why do you assume he won’t? Personally, I think he’ll do even better in the pros since he’ll be able to break bats and induce weak contact. This will result in lower pitch counts.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 18, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers Don't Make Sense?
Even with these numbers being purely assumptions, I don’t see the logic behind them. I don’t understand the projection that Strasburg is all of a sudden going to run up huge pitch counts and be out of games early. To me, that sounds speculatory at best and presumes that Strasburg cannot learn to adjust to MLB hitters.
To lay out my understanding of the argument: 1) SS is a high K pitcher; 2) To get such K’s, he’ll throw more pitches in MLB; 3) He won’t go as deep into games
If that is the numerical argument, its… well… seems off. The first question you ask about a pitcher is what is his stuff. Does SS have a ++ fastball? Yes. Does SS have a wipeout slider? Yes. So its not as if his stuff does not look like it will translate and its smoke and mirorrs. He likely will not be as dominant as he is in college, but who would expect him to be? If you are expecting the SS of college to be EXACTLY the SS in the pros, that is not misjudging the prospect, but overreaching in ones own expectations.
What should you expect? Although there is some worries about injury (I think overblown, but that’s another argument unto itself), he likely will hover around 200 IP. If he strikes out 210-220, that would be wonderful and is an ace material. So, even a moderate drop in his current K rate still comes up with something extremely special and rare.
As to level of competition, we probably can agree that to date SS may not have been truly challenged. Do you really think though, that once challenged, he won’t learn to adapt? In college, he knows he dominates people, so he goes for the strikeout. It is more likely than not that he will not have the same K rate, but will be focused on making weak contact. Therefore, a regression of K rate is not necessarily a bad thing, but a good thing in that he’s learning how to pitch rather than to overpower inferior hitters.
Lastly, from a non-numbers perspective, you cannot take the hype out of the equation. When someone is built up to be the best college pitcher, possibly ever, you HAVE to take him. Even if you think someone is better, its a no win situation. In my opinion, there is no one better, but even if there arguable is, you are going to have to try and prove it. Making unsupportable arguments about translation of statistics won’t cut it. You’d either have to have (1) a real good mechanics expert say that SS will get hurt [if this person is wrong, he will never work again]; or (2) have a real good argument as to how saving money on SS is necessary to overdraft later. But even then, penny pinching will not go over well.
Boxkutter – the mere fact that you think it would be great if Strasburg falls to #2 for your Mariners means that despite VD’s person, you know that SS should be going #1. You obviously are not nearly as excited about whoever is VD’s mystery man. While I cannot speak to VD’s talent evaluation, SS is likely #1 from a talent perspective (which VD, you can prove me wrong when you tell me who it is), and SS is definitely #1 from an organizational standpoint.
by thudean on May 18, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What the hell is the point of the MOD
If you don’t just say who are thinking of picking?
by aCone419 on May 18, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Especially because its not just his pick - he is supposed to get input from everyone else
I don’t want to go into how much VD pisses me off on a regular basis with this stuff. And I respect Boxcutter’s, therefore the “defense” of him as well. But VD is really an arrogant douche. And I really mean that.
i’ve been around for a while, and for the last 5 years i’ve been focusing on finding guys like wandy rodriguez and edwin jackson, but also ricky romero and shaun marcum, and rob tejeda and gavin floyd. i’ve advanced this to the point that i’ve actually come around to the opinion that finding and developing good young pitching is so easy that it doesn’t make any sense to pay top dollar for any one of them.
Case and point..
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on May 18, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i want to see my guy pitch again
after that i’ll make a preliminary decision between him and strasburg, and then i’ll post a second MOD announcing it.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on May 18, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
just hold on
so you think there is a pitcher who has better stuff than Strasburg right now? There’s being afraid of injury risk, but you are feeding into your own prejudices here. There’s no real indication Strasburg has been abused any more than any other pitcher going into the draft, and actually a lot of talk that he has been handled well by Tony Gywnn at San Diego State. Yes he pitches in the high 90s at times, cracking 100, but there’s no indication he’s doing it to show off or excessively extending himself to do that.
I’m for unconventional, but this line of reasoning borders on irrational.
by SLK on May 20, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i guess you're happy
now that you’ve had 51+ posts. from now on let’s play things straight and not act like a complete asshole. you’ve wasted the time of everyone on this board. and if you were in my league i’d block your ass. grow up dude (and lay off the alcohol)
by psugator on May 18, 2009 10:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
look, it's okay
you were a piece of shit then for scraping up 40 year old fables after a team had just won a world fucking championship.
and what do you know, you’re still a piece of shit, calling out someone on a fucking message board for having an opinion different from your own.
what do you want, a cookie?
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on May 18, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd agree with psugator's sentiment, but for different reasons.
You haven’t actually responded to any of the legitimate arguments, you haven’t come up with any legitimate arguments yourself, and the only posts you keep making are to brag about the fact that you have an unknown mystery player. It’s coming off as incredibly immature and attention-grabbing, but then, you probably already know that.
So, yes, I’m calling you out because you have an opinion different from mine, but moreso because you can’t and refuse to defend it, and are using it as an attention-grabbing device.
by RedSoxFaithful on May 19, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry this is pathetic
I am seriously considering to start the fanpost petition to get you removed as the Nats MOD. This has nothing to do with the scope nor spirit of this exercise and everything to do with stroking your ego.
No one cares if you think you are smarter than everyone else or that you crave the attention. The entire idea behind this is to mimic how the parent organization would run their draft. This is not your little kingdom to do as you see fit.
Just because you think this is the right decision, and everyone nationally and more importantly here on this site (which is the point of this exercise) disagrees with you, does not mean that you should get to do what you want anyways.
by laxtonto on May 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Seconded
it seems you, having done Philly before, are not a follower of the Nats and have made several statements indicating your lack of knowledge on their ability/inability to have the resources to sign #1 and #10 (indications are now they will go with BPA at 10, and not a “signability” pick).
Would rather John picked somebody with a modicum of experience in following the Nats than the quickest typing clown with an agenda.
by VladiHondo on May 20, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bravo
Just flagged your post and I suggest everyone else do the same. Maybe with enough flags John will replace him with someone else.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 21, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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