Update and Discussion
by John Sickels on May 14, 2009 10:36 PM EDT
Email
PrintI am completely buried with work right now and am kind of burned out, which is not a good combination. You don't need me burned out with the draft approaching, so I need to take Friday and maybe Saturday as off-days. I will still be around to monitor things, so don't run amuck, but I need to set up a discussion for you until I get my ducks in a row.
By the way, there is a VERY subtle non-baseball reference in that last sentence. I didn't actually write it that way conciously, but I see it now. Do you?
Anyway, here is the question.
Would you rather have Stephen Strasburg or Zack Greinke for the next ten years? My first answer was "Greinke", since he has already done something in the majors. But if Strasburg really IS "the best prospect of the draft era" as some sources are now calling him, shouldn't that make him the choice? Just how confident should we be in him?
142 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Zack Grienke is already 25 and will be approaching his decline sooner than Strasburg will. I think Strasburg projects to have the type of minor league career that tim Lincecum did, which for the purposes of this survey, make him available for MLB use for nearly 8 years.
I love what Greinke does but 8 years of Strasburg is better than 5 years of Greinke at a good level and then 5 average years if that.
Yes, and Strasburg is 5 years younger than him
Since a pitcher should start his decline by his early 30s, a few of those 10 years would be in Greinke’s post-prime years. For Strasburg, the decade ends right as he should be expected to start losing it.
Doesn’t mean Strasburg is the right choice, but I see nothing wrong with backtocali’s first statement.
by thejd44 on May 15, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I do
I think people are too quick to assume that Strasburg will jump right in and be great. Felix Hernandez was the best pitching prospect of the last twenty years, yet he’s been slow to turn that great potential into actually greatness, and he was amazing in the minors. Against professionals. Strasburg has great stuff, but his great performance has only been against amateurs, and not even the best of the best amongst amateurs, either.
Sure, Greinke might start to decline in his early thirties, but that’s quite a ways off. Pointing out Greinke’s imminent decline highlights the way in which so many people are assuming Strasburg is ready to be an ace right now. Maybe he is, but I don’t think you can really assume that.
Personally, I find it doubtful that Greinke’s decline years during those next ten years are going to be much, if any, worse than Strasburg’s maturation years.
by Fanon on May 15, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Comparing....
Felix Hernandez and Strasburg really isn’t fair. Hernandez was younger, less polished, and more imature than Strasburg is. Also, Hernandez doesn’t compare when you look at stuff. Strasburg has 4 potential plus pitches with average to above average control of every one of them. He will get hitters out just because he has the best stuff they will probably ever see.
have you seen Strasburg pitch?
I sure haven’t
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're overlooking Felix's stuff
While Strasburg may have a tick more velocity on his fastball (though Felix’s has averaged 95 for his career, with good movement), Felix has a curve and slider that have both been called plus pitches, and I think his changeup is pretty good as well. I’ve never heard of Strasburg having 4 potential plus pitches, only a great fastball, a nasty slurve, and a change with good potential.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
I agree
There’s a lot of “OMG, he throws 103!” with little consideration of everything else.
Also, what starter has ever thrown this hard? None that I can think of. The fact that Strasburg got himself into shape relatively late means a bit less mileage on his arm, but also means that we don’t know that his arm is going to hold up. Honestly, I’m not willing to bet that he’s some freak of nature, and think he’s more than likely a huge injury risk.
Seen him twice
He does NOT have 4 plus pitches. He pretty much threw only fastballs and slurves, with a couple changeups I would call BP fastballs.
His breaking ball completely overmatches college hitters, and he uses it aggressively to get ahead, pitching backwards most of the time. His fastball command is poor, but in combination with the breaking ball, leaves hitters guessing and flailing. He ran a lot of deeps counts both times I saw him.
Remember, the kids he facing have prob never seen 100mph heat, and a lot of them looked like they were going up to the plate just trying not to K. Im not so sure he can dominate professional hitters yet, at least not with any consistency.
I absolutely adore Felix
but his fastball command is terrible, his changeup has disappeared, he stubbornly refuses to throw his offspeed stuff and his velocity is down. He’s still a good pitcher but if he ever wants to come close to fulfilling his potential he needs to make adjustments.
by Aaron Campeau on May 16, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Whats not to say that Greinke could adapt and pitch well into his thirties much the way Maddox or Smoltz have? If decline is centered around a decrees in velocity and bite on breaking pitches, then wouldn’t Greike’s uncanny “feel” for pitching come into play? The guy flat out knows how to pitch, and if he can maintain solid location I think he can be a good to great pitcher for the entirety of the ten year span.
If anything, assuming that Greinke is due for a sharp decilne is just as uncertain as predicting immediate success for Strasburg.
by BigBadBossman on May 15, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you made up meaning to what the guy said
I have no problem with your argument. I have a problem with your argument as a retort to what backtocali actually said.
by thejd44 on May 15, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think so
The decline premise assumes that Strasburg will jump right into the majors and be an ace.
not necessarily
I am not saying he will jump right in, but I am making a leap when I believe that he could be MLB ready by mid season 2010, or even opening day 2011. If this is the case, and his stuff holds to form, definitely makes you think he is the better long term value over Greinke.
How do you figure?
A) I don’t know how you assume that Greinke declines starting at 30. 30 isn’t really a cutoff for age-related decline.
B) His stuff isn’t the issue, his pitchability is. Considering that the level of competition he’s face has been less than excellent, I don’t know why people are assuming his stuff will carry him. Look, anyone who follows prospects knows that you can have the best stuff in the world but if you don’t know how to pitch it’s not going to get you that far. I don’t know why there’s this assumption that Strasburg is the exception to the rule. As I pointed out above, I think Felix was a more polished prospect when he broke into the majors than Stras is right now, and it’s taken him some time to realize his potential (as he still hasn’t realized it fully).
+1, Grienke is unstable
While I think Grienke has been amazing, his track record of mental illness makes him unreliable for the next decade. You never know if his “issues” could return to haunt him again so I would take Strasburg in a heartbeat! Only time will tell.
by Patriotreign3 on May 15, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty doubtful
Greinke’s mental illness seems to correlate directly with his having been thrown into the bigs at a very young age with extremely high expectations. He didn’t enjoy the game anymore because it had become a job for him. Things had snowballed. I don’t think you can really call him unstable.
by Fanon on May 15, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
-1
Wow, how prejudicial can you get? I guess we can’t be surprised, considering society’s attitude toward mental illness, but who hasn’t burned out or needed a break at some point in their young careers? And those aren’t people with monumental expectations on their shoulders, either.
by Flynn Blake on May 15, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
I found that post a little offensive, personally.
by Fanon on May 16, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
i restrained myself from e-unleashing. pisses me off.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on May 16, 2009 6:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Mental Illness?
You say it like the guy is Schizophrenic. He was a young man who got overwhelmed by the situation he was in and began questioning his career choice. That happens to a lot of people at that age, but when you happen to be a pro athlete people suddenly label you a nutcase because of it.
Now, if your argument had been that he almost left baseball for good once, he may decide to retire again, due to change in heart. I’d have no problem with that. And that may well be true, and could be a legitimate concern. But just because a guy had second thoughts about doing a job you may dream about doesn’t make him crazy, just different from you.
"5 average years if that"
Are you trying to say that a 31-year old Greinke will struggle to be a league-average pitcher? Because if so I think that’s pretty ridiculous.
by Brendan Scolari on May 16, 2009 6:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Duck Amuck
Without question one of the high-water marks of American culture of the past hundred years.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
Shocking..
Results so far, I would have thought it would be closer to 60-40 with everyone buying the Strasburg hype. Maybe a more balanced battle would be either price or strasburg, both considered the best at what they do (price being the best lefty prospect that comes to mind, and strasburg the best righty)
Greinke, for sure
Strasburg hasn’t pitched professionally and really doesn’t have enough of a body of work or large enough workload to know what his body is capable of. He’s going to be great, but who knows. Greinke is past the injury nexus and hasn’t had any health problems outside of the mental ones which he’s whipped.
No brainer.
Give me Greinke.
There are plenty of other young arms I’d take over Strasburg too. Porcello, Hanson, Bumgarner, and Feliz just to name a few.
Tommy Hanson 4 ROY
I'm a Ranger homer
And I wouldn’t take Feliz over Strasburg.
Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert
as a braves fan...
i can say that this above statement is borderline retarded. Feliz’s secondary stuff is mediocre, at best. his fastball hits 96-98 consistently, but until he learns movement on it and a better arsenal of secondary stuff, he’ll be pretty average in the majors.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 18, 2009 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Greinke
He’s proven he can hold up to a major league workload.
with the attrition...
rate of pitchers being as high as it is, i’ll take the guy who’s shown that he can weather a 30 odd starts and close to 200 innings a year…
i just realized i’ve restated what fanon said… but whatever
by gorilla_baller on May 15, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions
I wish
That this blog had existed during the ’01 draft so I could see what everybody had to say about Prior.
and...
what is your point? Is it that we should discount Strasburg because he is an awesome college pitcher like Prior? It isn’t like Prior was all hype and then sucked. His 2003 was by far better than anything Greinke has accomplished so far in a full season. But seriously, I would like to know what your point is.
Kris Benson?
awesome college number.
I think Strasburg is good, but come on, how delusional do you have to be to ask what he’s asking?
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 7:10 AM EDT up reply actions
You can...
never compare Kris Benson to Strasburg. Benson’s stuff doesn’t even come close and the only reason he never did anything is because of injury which could happen to both these guys.
Greinke is out of the injury annex
Stras isn’t.
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Is the injury annex the same as the injury nexus?
At what point are pitchers past this injury marker? Did Bonderman ever get past the injury nexus?
Disagree
Historically, anyone who’s pitched an entire season in an MLB rotation before the age of 23 has had some kind of arm injury. Once you get to age 23 and later, the injury rate is far lower. Bonderman pitched three full MLB seasons (162+ IP, anyway) before he turned 23. That would not bode well for his future, at least as far as remaining injury free.
by Flynn Blake on May 16, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
While you're largely correct
Anyone? And they usually suffer the injury either before or right around 23. The guys who make it through can usually stay healthy.
I think "historically" is enough of a qualifier
meaning “most” or “virtually all,” but I haven’t made a study of it. A guy pointed it out to me in the late ’80s, going back to guys in the ’60s like Gullett, Nolan, Simpson, etc., but it is certainly worthy of study. Guys back then tended to have much larger workloads, however, so maybe mgmt has learned to moderate those somewhat.
O Hai
While I realize that Maddux is very much an exception to almost every rule, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddugr01.shtml will show you that he never had an arm injury. Others: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seaveto01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fellebo01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml
While I realize these are all great, great pitchers, I think it bears noting that you’ll really only see pitchers with the potential to become great logging serious service time at or before the age of 23. Pitching is inherently violent, and it makes no sense to refrain from maximizing the ability of a young starter (within reason) in the hope of getting a few extra years out of him when he’s older.
I’m not arguing in favor of having 20 year olds throw 300 IP, but I think it’s foolhardy to neglect to utilize a 22 year old for more than 162 IP because of his age. There’s so much more to consider, including (but not limited ot) body type, athleticism, mechanics, and in some cases, genetics. The best approach to handling a young pitcher is to let the pitcher’s own development lead his “development” course. If a pitcher is physically and emotionally major league ready, then let him play.
P.S. This is similar to pitch count. If you don’t let a pitcher go past 100 pitches, you’ll never find out who the true horses are, and it seems as though the rest will break down anyway. Why not try and find the pitchers who really can excel and go the distance. I’m eagerly anticipating the results of Nolan Ryan’s great experiment in Texas.
Yes and no
Four great pitchers doesn’t negate the oceans of prospects who’ve burned out or been discarded after taxing MLB seasons in their very early 20s. In addition, I’d say I’m much more worried about 20-YOs throwing serious MLB innings than 22-YOs, though I’m not crazy about the latter. But of your list, the jury is still out on Sabathia (though a serious injury at this point would certainly seem unlikely), and Feller missed three full seasons and 3/4 of a fourth from ages 23-26 after four monstrous workloads from ages 19-22. It’s safe to say his career would have taken a different shape without that respite, though we’ll never know whether it would have meant another 80 wins or much more wear and tear (and either resulting arm woes or an earlier retirement) later. Since Feller is still kicking and quite feisty and active at age 89, it’s likely that he’s just a unique warhorse type. Seaver and Maddux had their first full-season workloads at age 22, so they were almost out of the nexus, and your point about 22 year olds being able to handle slightly larger workloads than 20 year olds is correct, I’m sure.
Great point about only star-quality pitchers debuting before age 23. I hadn’t tied it to that same maxim working for hitters largely because lots of solid pitchers mature later (discovering new pitches or getting adequate coaching or leaving college later or whatever). Dazzy Vance was a Hall of Famer who didn’t get a serious MLB look until he was 31, and you’ll likely never hear of a story like that happening again, but in the past it wasn’t that unusual. But you won’t be heard of early unless you’re potentially great — makes sense.
The ideal “development” course that Guy speaks of, to me, would mean a mix of this age-23 calendar and the Verduccl effect, not allowing guys to exceed their previous season’s innings by more than 30. I think that combination would go a long way toward preventing serious injuries, but in an age where you have players cost-controlled early in their careers and allow them to become free agents later, this stuff is often going to go out the window if you have a chance to win it all now (like with the Phillies and Hamel), future be damned.
by Flynn Blake on May 17, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Hrm...
I will agree about Feller’s very unusual career path being a disqualifying factor, but Rapid Robert was also hurling massive IP totals in his teens. In general, I don’t think we’re all that far off from each other. I would rather not have a 20 year old go throw a full season in the big leagues, but if he really, really appears ready for it then I think that asset has to be utilized.
Using your assets is particularly true in the case of a pennant race, as alluded to further down in the thread re. Mark Prior. I don’t fault the Phillies for working Cole Hamels last season, as they won a world championship and it’s not as though they severely abused Hamels in the process. The Marlins rode Josh Beckett when he was 23 years old and they got a ring for it(I realize Beckett hadn’t been overworked that season). I’m certain if you asked the pitchers themselves, they would be very much in favor of taking those risks again. This isn’t the only factor (much as no patient can be trusted to make his own diagnosis and only a fool has himself as a lawyer), but it is worth noting. I would much, much rather test my ace for a real chance at a ring than wonder what might have been.
Incidentally, I do think there’s something to “building up” an arm when a pitcher is young, and I think protecting a young arm is a part of it, but so is steadily building that arm up.
Beckett and Hamels
It’s interesting that you mention both of those guys as they missed significant amounts of time early in their careers (and during the injury nexus) with miscellaneous injury woes, though nothing structural in the elbow or shoulder (blisters for Beckett, broken hand in a bar fight for Hamels). That’s a lot of wear and tear saved.
by Flynn Blake on May 19, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
What is the injury nexus?
The only nexus I remember is from a Star Trek TNG movie.
If Prior had taken 2004 completely off due to mental issues, then pitched 122 innings split between bullpen/starting, and then 202 innings in 2005, would he have past the injury nexus?
Yes.
23 or so? Taking that year off might have been good for his arm, ultimately, as if he’d been in the majors and pitching well they probably would’ve had him throw 200 for no good reason. As it is, he’s had a nice, gentle development curve, somewhat similar to Johan’s, which generally bodes well for health going forward.
Injury nexus
See my post a few above this one.
by Flynn Blake on May 16, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Greinke's workload
What exactly is everyone’s criteria for a pitcher “proving he can handle a full season workload?” Pitching under 200 innings twice, then flaking out and missing an entire season, and then pitching 122 innings then 202 innings? Does that really prove anything? I love Greinke, but why does anyone assume that he will definitely be able to pitch entire baseball seasons consistently over the next 10 years?
You can't be serious.
While Greinke’s work load may not be ideal and may not show definitively that he is a “workhorse,” it far surpasses that of Stasburgs.
Simply put: faith in Greinke is already justifiable. Faith in Strasburg is speculative.
by BigBadBossman on May 15, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, simple math says
That Greinke’s workload the last 2 years is 324 more innings than Strasburg has pitched in the bigs.
Ok
So the criteria for a pitcher “proving he can handle a full season workload” is to have pitched more than Strasburg?
Point being
Greinke has proven himself in the bigs. Strasburg has not.
None, really
But in 2006 he pitched just 6 innings.
Greinke
Let’s just look at the obvious, everyone realize that the uncertainty of Strasbugh going foward is a lot higher than Grienke (no pro exp, mech, havn’t faced that many truely good hitters in college etc..) but even if everything pans out. how much better can he possibly be than What Greinke is doing so far? He’s upside is basically Grienke 09 (which is basically the uppermost upside of anyone who’s not a obvious inner circle HOF candidate), the question is how long either could sustain it.
Greinke
I really don’t see much of a difference in pure stuff either. Greinke has the velocity and he has the secondary pitches. SS may win a few cy youngs for all I know but Greinke is no fluke and I don’t see why he can’t continue what he has done so far.
Things Both has proven
Zack Greinke
-Can overcome mental illness(not saying that it won’t come back, it’s unlikely but he’s already overcome that once)
-Can throw 180 innings no problem year in and year out, he doesn’t have the track record yet, but I don’t think he has had a physical injury where he missed time(knock on wood), I wouldn’t think 200ip every year is out of reach
-Can put up a 3.50ERA and 1.30WHIP in the AL Central over a full year of starting.
Stephen Strasburg
-Can throw about 100 innings a year
-Can absolutely dominate….Mountain West conference hitting, I think he’s a great prospect, but I don’t think he can post nearly the number if he plays in the Big 12.
Strasburg is still the better prospect, but let’s remember that Kyle Gibson has pitched at Texas, vs A&M, vs Oklahoma, @Baylor, @KSU(and beat the then 9-0 AJ Morris), vs. Tech, @Nebraska and vs. Kansas
I really want to see who Strasburg has pitched against.
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 7:07 AM EDT reply actions
ok, I took a look
Strasburg has faced exactly 1 ranked opponent this year, #16 TCU, twice. 8ip 3er one start and 7ip 2er the other. Certainly good, but not Nintendo numbers.
Off the Gibson list, I know Texas was probably ranked, A&M was preseason #1, Baylor was close to being ranked if not, KSU was #22 when we played him(#12 now?), Kansas is ranked now.
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions
LOL
Nice try knob jockey. You left out the Nintendo numbers. First start against TCU, 8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 14 K. How the hell is that insanely good?
Second start, 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 14 K for a grand total of 15 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 28 K.
Thanks for showing your complete and utter bias against Strasburg.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 16, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
5 ER in 15 Innings
That’s not exactly Nintendo numbers.
I haven’t looked at all the lineups he has faced this year, but I’d be curious to see how many batters he has faced in his college career that will actually make it past AA in their careers. My guess is the count will be less than 10.
Strasburg is a great prospect, but we still have no idea what a good hitter will do against him. I think he’ll have an adjustment period once he starts climbing the ladder.
Well
What I said is that he left out the Nintendo numbers. All the 5 ER tells me is that he was probably unlucky. There were only 9 baserunners in those 15 IP.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 17, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely true
But it is curious that his unluckiness cropped up against the one ranked team he’s faced.
Or more likely, it cropped up because he's still got a college baseball team fielding the ball behind him.
Tools Whore
well wouldn't that come up in the
h/9 instead of er?
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 18, 2009 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I believe it did.
Strasburg allowed 17 balls to enter play in two said games and 7 of them went for hits. That’s a .411 average on balls that contact was made. He struck out 62% of the hitters in those two games. One can roughly assume that his defense probably isn’t that good.
Tools Whore
Ducks...
John – are you a closet hockey fan?
by ofsticksandbats on May 15, 2009 8:01 AM EDT reply actions
Greinke without a doubt
Strasburg is still unproven, sure he’s lights out against college hitters…but I am pretty certain he’s gone up against lesser talent (no offense to those guys). Until Strasburg faces higher competition in PRO ball, I won’t be 100% convinced he’ll be anything but hype and tons of talented potential.
now, am I impressed by his numbers, and youtube videos? sure, but there’s been flame outs with his type of talent too.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Greinke
I know Strassy will command a huge contract but I don’t know whether it will top Greinke’s 38/4 contract. Greinke is looking for a big payday in 4 years and at that point, who knows?
Greinke is a proven commodity and he definitely has an edge right now but there is a good chance that Strassy will come in and dominate right away. Pretty close IMO.
really?
Really? That’s interesting.
I have been boycotting ESPN since 2005 so I didnt’ know that.
by John Sickels on May 15, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I think
It’s because they foolishly let John go, and my understanding is that the circumstances were less than amiable.
Could be that there's exactly one baseball writer there with integrity and credibility
And it’s not Keith Law.
by thejd44 on May 15, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
PEDs
a friend of mine calls Greinke’s “happy pills” performance enchancing drugs. …as bad as I hate to say it, he may not be wrong.
by richieabernathy on May 15, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions
wow wow
let’s not call every drug that helps people a PED. What’s next? Insulin? Sorry Morrow, you may die, but that’s helping your performance?
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
He means
that the insulin Morrow takes for his diabetes is a performance enhancer because it allows him to pitch while not in a coma
by smoooooth on May 15, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah
it’s nonsense, but I wanted to hear everybody’s thoughts on it. My friend is “that guy”. Interesting that he survived the “injury nexus” but his main physical setback—and time on the DL—was a mental setback. By the way, I’m not sure we talk enough about the emotional aspects of handling fame and money along with the pressure and stress of honing your skills to perform at the highest level and expectation. We simply call it good or bad “makeup” and move it, but it’s obviously a lot more complex than that.
by richieabernathy on May 15, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
speaking of
How many people will consider Strasburg a failure if he is closer to Brad Penny than Bob Gibson? Hell at this point, I would imagine many would be disappointed if he is “only” a John Lackey type.
by richieabernathy on May 15, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Human nature is a hard thing to understand
I was reading this article the other day on the NY Times about a study they did with Harvard class of 30 something, JFK was in that study for a while(before he was president), basically some of the brightest minds at the time, and they kept tracks on the guys and it’s really surprising how bad some of them turned out.
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't tease like that without link
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
here it is
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/12/opinion/12brooks.html
and in more detail
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200906/happiness
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Legacies?
Wouldn’t a lot of those guys have been there because daddy went there and granddaddy before him, etc.? And thus be no better than your average Joe outside the size of their wallets?
that could be true
But let’s be honest here, most wealthier, more well off family tends to educate their kids better academically and mentally. Not saying it is always or even 95% of the case, just saying on average I would think that rich people have overwhelmingly better odd at developing successful offspring than somebody living below the poverty line.
Mourning Guy Carbonneau...
Royals obscure player to watch in ST: Lenny DiNardo
by playingwithfire on May 15, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
not just success
money is directly linked to healthcare, lifespan, education, etc. oh, and pulling beautiful women. but y’all already knew all that.
by richieabernathy on May 15, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
If their kids work for it
Leaving kids with a ton of money has a historically high failure rate — lots of kids with trust funds who are unmotivated, heroin addicts, spoiled. Very sad.
by Flynn Blake on May 16, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
In my experience
From knowing a fair number of said types, this is the case.
Oops
Need to learn the reply button better.
by BigBadBossman on May 15, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
No but it's still a legitimate question.
Pat Burrell is going to get a cortisone shot today to relieve inflammation in his back. Should that be allowed? It’s a drug, injected, that could potentially have adverse side affects over time, which helps you heal more quickly. Where do you draw the line on PED’s. No one asks these questions.
hGH helps you heal more quickly. The jury is still out on it’s ability to create muscle growth or not, most new studies suggest not. How is this that much different from cortisone or any number of other pain killers that are given so that players can continue to play.
Tools Whore
well
One is to resolve an injury to get back to your “normal” state, the other is to enhance you beyond your normal state.
And people do indeed ask these questions all the time.
That's not entirely true
Steroids help you return from injury more quickly. A lot of the guys busted for having HGH mailed to them were plagued by injuries.
I agree with Tyler that people don’t really ask these questions. And when they do they make excuses.
well
If people don’t ask these questions, I wonder why I read this stuff all the time. In any event, perhaps steroids do. They are also banned. I am not saying “keep them outta the hall” or getting on a soap box.
Look at it this way. There are eyeglasses. Contact lenses. Laser surgery to fix vision issues. Carrot juice. Then there would be super bionic eyeballs enabling you to see the spin on a slider in an instant. Oh well, Ted Williams already could. :)
grienke
I always try to go with the sure thing.
by kershaw_equals_stud on May 15, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions
I'd vote Greinke but...
…he is no sure thing. His BBRef comps include Ben Sheets, Jose Rosado, Tom Glavine and Jeff Weaver.
I do think it significantly more likely that Greinke will throw 220 very good innings in 2012 than Strasburg.
I love Stras
but it’s not even close GREINKE easily
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
bah, ESPN
I’ve boycotted them since…hmm. although I do occasionally catch their “highlights” :). I just do it with the mute button. Too bad I don’t remember which channel FS highlights is on…
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
+1
He’s now just beginning to show just how good he truly is. He’s been doing this for over a year now.
Besides, Strasburg will be playing for the Nats and right now, that’s not a good thing. Hopefully, he can be a part of turning that system around.
2009; John Lester becomes an ace?
Mwuaahahaha Dynasty
How about both?
I am in a brand new 12-team dynasty (100% turnover – no more drafts ever) keeper league where I got Greinke with the last pick in the 7th round.
The kicker? I purposely picked last to retain #1 waiver for Mr. Strasburg.
And also – he was just added to CBS database so you keepr leaguers get your claims in.
CHRISTMAS IN MAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We lock college players
Since my money league does a straight minor league draft all newly drafted players are locked until the following offseason. Its not fair to make the pickup of elite prospects contingent on CBS’s arbitrary addition of them into the playoff pool.
That said, you best believe Im picking up extra 1st rounders next year in every deal I make this year.
Minor League Draft
We decided against yearly minor league drafts, and would just subject ourselves to waiver priority for all new player additions.
Kind of messy, but it was agreed upon before the season started.
Everyone knew getting Strasburg would mean having the #1 priority.
another great start for ZacKKKKKK
7-6-1-2-6 against the O’s
His ERA shot up to 0.60.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Absolutely no doubt in my mind
I’m taking Grienke. He’s already a stud, whereas Strasburg could take a year or so to get there. Plus, passing on a 25 year old ace for someone who has never pitched professionally just doesn’t seem right, no matter how electric his stuff is. There’s just much more risk involved in Strasburg.
by Brendan Scolari on May 16, 2009 6:47 AM EDT reply actions
One Thing
Nobody has mentioned yet is the difference in bats both pitchers face. How much better do metal bats make lesser players? I think it’s remarkable that Strasburg has given up only 54 hits in over 94 IP.
Human nature is so predictable. Anytime a hot new prospect comes along, first comes the hype, soon followed by the inevitable backlash of people trying to prove how smart they are by being contrarian. I’m sure in a year or two, Bryce Harper will be picked apart and dissected in a similar fashion.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 16, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions
I love Strasburg
I just don’t buy into the hype that he’ll be an ace immediately, and I don’t think that he’s such a freak of nature that he can be the hardest throwing starter ever without getting hurt, which is what he looks like right now.
Greinke
You simply cannot perform at a higher level than Zach Greinke is, and he has everything you could ask for in a starting pitcher. An ace in the hand is worth two in the bush leagues.
Stras has very questionable mechanics
His mechanics are very similar to Anthony Reyes and Mark Prior.
More in-depth analysis: http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/StephenStrasburg.html
Greinke has fairly sound mechanics.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
We've had this argument before, but there is literally no way you can know
if a pitchers mechanics will cause an injury. And I haven’t heard one single reputable source say that an inverted W is an issue. Dr. James Andrews doesn’t have a problem with it, scouts don’t have a problem with his mechanics, one internet “guru” says it’s an issue and people run with it. The same internet guru said Justin Duchscherer had great mechanic and wasn’t an injury risk until he got hurt. Then when he got hurt proclaimed this:
I would like to point out (as I always seem to do) that I can’t control the fact that 99.9% of pitchers in the major leagues throw at least one breaking ball with a supinated grip. Due to this, they’ll all have inflamed elbows and eventually will suffer elbow damage – regardless of how their mechanics grade out otherwise.
Which is to say, just like the rest of us, he can’t predict injuries. So why he’s trying confuses me.
Tools Whore
The inverted W
seems to lead to other problems though. Like short arming or long arming. And bad mechanics do lead to control problems along with reduced effectiveness.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
Sure mechanical issues can cause command problems. I'll give you that,
but he doesn’t have that, so his mechanics aren’t an issue.
Tools Whore
I'm just saying that they can be...
in the long run. He could develop injury problems or lose effectiveness. Like you said it’s not a guarantee, it’s not like the Nationals shouldn’t take him #1.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
Not So Fast
Being a Cub fan you should know there were other contributing factors to Prior’s shredded shoulder. You conveniently forget about that collision he had running the bases. Until then, he had no arm troubles at all. Then of course, there were the insane pitch counts Dusty ran up on him in meaningless games at the end of the regular season. This has all been hashed and re-hashed endlessly both here and on BCB. My point is that we just don’t know why precisely Prior’s arm disintegrated and to just blame it on the dreaded inverted W is just plain silly.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 18, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
>:[
Those games WEREN’T meaningless. I’ve gone on ad nauseum on this site about Prior’s use in August and September of 2003, but the upshot is that the Cubs were in a very tight pennant race and Prior was carrying that rotation and a burned out bullpen. Baker was handed the best pitcher in baseball and told this pitcher had flawless mechanics that would more than likely prevent injury. Said pitcher gets BETTER down the stretch (in particular, after his downtime due to injury.) What was Baker, in his first year in Chicago after taking the Giants to the World Series, supposed to do?
IIRC, Carroll says that according to Andrews, it was really the collision which brought about Prior’s end and not the pitch counts or the mechanics. My guess is that it was some combination of the collision, coming back too quickly (without realize the damage hadn’t fully healed), and just plain poor genetics. Some arms aren’t meant to last.
Oh and Dr. James Andrews....
Is someone I don’t trust anymore. I trusted him too much with Mark Prior. He’s in the Tom House club.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
Yeah, you definitally shouldn't trust the literally the only person in the world
doing research on what cause injuries on pitchers.
Tools Whore
When I say the only person, what I mean is the only person with the
facilities to do it with any effectiveness.
Tools Whore
I meant I just don't trust him completely
Definitely not saying that he’s not a credible source but I have my three favorites of Chris O’Leary, Dick Mills, and Dr. Mike Marshall.
Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!
Obviously, this is a minor league site.
Here, people tend to go extra gaga over tools and 103 miles per hour (!!!!!) and projection and potential. That’s all fine.
But no matter how much of a “sure thing” Strasburg is, pitching in the Draft traditionally fails. A lot. Now, with two already-plus pitches, I imagine he could be a closer right now for a MLB team. But that would put him miles and miles behind Greinke in value to his team.
Greinke is 25. Sure, he won’t be a dominant ace when 2017 rolls around, but I’d wager he’ll be a 3-starter at the absolute worst. He isn’t just some incredible stuff hotshot. He spent all spring working on just his changeup, practically, throwing it countless times in ST games just to get a “good feel” for it. That gives him 4 plus pitches.
He ain’t going away in the next 10 years, folks, barring injury. Which, again, is in his favor, as Strasburg is still in the injury nexus. He’s much more likely to get hurt, particularly with his mechanics (from what I’ve read, I’m no mechanics expert or anything).
Greinke, Greinke, a million times Greinke. Now, obviously, Strasburg could be better than Greinke. That’s possible. He is posting ludicrous numbers in college, albeit against severely limited competition. But the chances are much, much, much higher that Greinke is better over the next 10 years.
Duck Amuck
Recently visited the Chuck Jones gallery in San Diego… ridiculously priced, but what agreat way to spend an hour browsing around like it’s a museum piece.
If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
