MOD: Royals
by RoyalsRetro on May 14, 2009 10:08 AM EDT
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PrintFor the first time since 2004, we will not have a top five pick. We've also moved from a "build for the future" philosophy to a "win now, or at least very soon" philosophy. We will have just two picks due to the Juan Cruz signing (unless someone signs Mark Grudzielanek in the next few weeks!). We have the 12th and 91st picks overall.
David Glass has shown that money is not really an object when it comes to the draft (thanks for the revenue sharing money!) And with no second round pick, we can probably pay over slot with our first and third round picks.
Our organization is filled with young high-upside arms in the low minors. After Hos and Moose, we are pretty barren when it comes to hitters in the organization. Our upper minors are fairly bare as well.
So there is an argument to be made that perhaps this draft should focus on more polished players that are closer to MLB-ready. The organization is particularly weak in the outfield and middle infield. On the other hand, this appears to be an deep draft for high school pitchers and catchers.
Thoughts? Should we go for best player available or begin to fill organizational needs? High upside high school kids or more polished college players?
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Always best player available
I have a short list of guys I’m monitoring here. The list changes every few days though.
Grant Green (he seriously might fall this far)
Jiovanni Mier
Matt Davidson
Bobby Borchering
Max Stassi
Tommy Joseph
Wil Myers
Chad James
Mike Leake
Honestly, Mier, James, and Myers are the three that I’ve been really intrigued by lately.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
Guys I have been keeping an eye on
P Mike Leake – seems like a polished, close to MLB ready, lower upside guy
P Brooks Raley – terrific college numbers at A&M
P Matt Hobgood – solid build, seems to have a rising stock, can hit mid 90s with a good curve
P Jacob Turner – great upside, local kid, great fluid delivery, signability issues
P Rex Brothers – really like his velocity, could be a project though
OF Angelo Songco – love his pop, decent speed
There seems to be a good crop of catchers, but I’m not a big fan of drafting catchers high. But I could be swayed, especially if there’s a good value in such a deep draft for catchers.
You’ll probably have to educate me on guys like Davidson, Joseph, Myers and James, I’m not as familiar with them. Jiovinni Mier is a very intriguing player – can he stick at shortstop?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 14, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Go best available
if Green falls that far take him. Very doubtful though, otherwise go Jacob Turner in the 1st. Catcher looks really deep and should be able to land a nice catcher in the 3rd round.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Why would you want Green?
The Royals already have Moustakas who will have to play third, as well, and he is far better hitter.
by byronlhsdrmr on May 14, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a chance
He might just be able to stick at shortstop as a bat-first kind of guy. If he can do that, he’s a very valuable guy because you KNOW he will hit. That would make him something like Renteria in a good year or Stephen Drew.
It would carry some risk because if he can’t stick at short, he isn’t that great a prospect, more on the line of a second rounder.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
Many think that Green can stay at SS
Who knows if Moustakas can even stay at 3b. This team needs to take the best available player and if Green is available at 12 then he is that. A case of draftitis dropping him to the Royals would be very nice. He raked in the Cape and is deserving of a Top 10 pick, at 12 it’s a no brainer.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I don't think you are wrong with that
9 Errors (yes I know errors bad indicator) in 30 games isn’t too hot at the hot corner. I hate to say it but Keith Law might be right about his defense.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I like Green, too
He’s a had a down JR. year, but hitting well on the Cape with wood bats is a good sign
Agreed
If he falls to us at #12, I think we’d have to strongly consider him at the very least.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Give and take
You’ll have to catch me up on Songco. I haven’t seen him mentioned this high.
Turner will be gone, probably in this draft. Definitely in the real one. He’s a signability risk, but he’ll go top 10 and somebody will pay out for him.
Davidson and Borchard are similar prospects. Big power potential HS corner infielders.
Joseph is another one of those HS catchers, comparable to Stassi, only take away some of the bat and add in a bunch of defense. Myers is a guy who has another very good bat, has played all over the place but will probably end up at catcher where he has very good tools.
I like James a little more than I like Hobgood. I like James as a guy who could get overlooked because he doesn’t have the high 90’s stuff. He’s a lefty who sits in the 93-94 range and is really polished for a HS arm. I really like him a lot.
The reason Mier is considered a mid first round talent is because he’s a B/B+ bat and an A glove.
I’ve always liked Green a lot. He has too much of a track record of hitting to simply fail. What makes me nervous is the thought that HE could have to move to third or center, which would make him a significantly worse prospect.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
re: Joseph
Sorry. Mistake. Joseph is similar to Stassi defensively in that he’s good with a strong arm, has a lot of power potential. I like Myers and Stassi a little more than Joseph.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
Songco is probably a reach at #12
But his stock is rising.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Kevin Slowey version 2.0
And if you’re curious whether I meant that as a compliment or as a criticism, the right answer is both.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
slowey
as it is, he’s a fine #3 starter for just about any team. from what I have read Leake has some ground ball tendencies, which is exactly the opposite of Slowey. so if he’s Slowey – the HR problem………that’s a damn good pitcher.
i think this is the pick 100% unless something happens. or if he’s not there at 12, but i think he will be.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Washington/Colorado
I could see Leake going #10 to Washington and them getting 40% of a rotation with 2 picks
or
- to Colorado who has favored college players and where Leake’s ground balls could be useful.
Agreed
I like Leake a lot. From what I’ve heard he could be in a MLB rotation by 2010.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I like Leake. I like Slowey
I shadow drafted Slowey and he’s become a very solid pitcher.
The problem with drafting a Slowey type at this point is that if his stuff or his command slips even a little bit, he’s Carlos Silva flavored dead meat.
Still, note that he is on my short list at this point.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
His upside is obviously limited compared to the HS guys
Considering the state of our organization with a bunch of high upside arms in the low minors, a few guys like Cortes, Rosa and Gutierrez in the high minors, and a MLB rotation full of guys under control for the next few years like Meche, Greinke, Davies and Hochevar, do we need to go with a solid, MLB ready, low upside guy like Leake? Or can we gamble on a higher upside arm that might be available?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think the team always needs to go with
upside and talent. Look at the Rays, they’ve been loading up with talent year in and year out and now could have too many good players with guys like Desmond Jennings/David Price on their way up soon. That is a great problem to have and allows for so much more flexibility longterm as opposed to attacking for small runs.
I think GMDM and Glass need to take the exact same approach this year as they did last. Spend, spend and spend for more talent. It’s cheaper than FA and longterm will pay more dividents IF the FO has the talent evaluators that many think they have.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I don't think the current org assets have anything to do with it
I think it comes down to preferences. Organizations that are inclined to err on the side of quick rising polished guys would go Leake in an instant. Ones that value upside are likely to go with one of the HS arms or one of the HS catchers. If you would have presented this to me a few years ago, I would have sided with Leake. I’ve undergone a bit of a re-evaluation recently so I really am on the fence.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
haven't seen much love for the HS pitchers:
Wheeler, Turner, Miller, Matzek and Purke—at least one of those 5 guys will be available and I like them all. They won’t be ready for awhile but they all have good upside.
I guess I figured
They’d all be gone unless teams were scared off by Turner not signing. I really like Wheeler and Miller.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
let's figure this up
Definitely gone by the time we pick: Strausburg, Ackley, White, Gibson
Probably gone: Tate, Wheeler, Turner, one out of Scheppers/Crow
that leaves: one out of Scheppers/Crow, Leake, Matzek, Miller, Purke, Green
I think 12th is a good spot to be at b/c there is a drop off after 14 or 15 in my mind. Somebody (at least in the real draft) will slide a la Smoak/ Heyward
Out of that
I think Maztek is gone.
If it’s Purke, I don’t know if I would go there. I like his profile, but there’s something in his mechanics that look weird to me and is enough to scare me off.
BTW, Gibson is from my wife’s home town about 25 minutes east of Indy.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
6M on Hosmer
Smoak banked about 3.5M last year in the 11th slot so really no pick can expect a whole lot more than 4M at the 12th pick this year could they?
I can’t imagine how Turner or anyone could pass on 4M. Would the Royals pay that much at that slot?
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
It depends
If it is Turner or Tate, I would bet money they would pay out.
The rub is that I see a lot of teams in front of the R’s (Detroit, Balt, Colorado, SF) that wouldn’t see that as a game breaker either so I don’t know if Turner slides that far.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
Any thoughts on the 91st pick?
Obviously hard to project who might be available, but if you want to throw out some names with a short scouting report, that would be lovely.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I got nothing
Way too early.
My hope is that the R’s take a signability risk and buy the guy out of college, kind of like what they did last year or like various other teams have done (Florida, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland with Galloway, Grossman, and Fedroff). But I have no clue who that is yet.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
I could see Phegley falling to 91 but I would prefer a High upside signability problem in the 3rd round since the pick is protected.
Brian Morgado is a LHP from Tennessee that has been touching 97 mph since the move to the pen according to BA. He doesn’t fit the profile above.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Maybe a stretch
But I’d like to gamble on Scheppers at 12. His pure stuff is as good as anyone not named Strasburg, and he’d be close to helping. Obvious health concern, but if there wasn’t he might go as high as #2.
With the #12 KC needs to go with the deepest position - pitcher
I’d really like to see KC go with one of the top HS like Matzek, Miller, Turner, Wheeler or Purke.
Think college guys will go fast – Strasburg, Ackley, Green, Gibson, Crow and White.
PLEASE DON’T BUY INTO SCHEPPERS – KC can’t afford the risk. Think that Tate will go in top 10. Leake is an interesting college guy but I haven’t been impressed with the Royals college picks over the years even though I know Dayton is at the helm now.
For the 91st pick – go with the best player available especially OF and middle infielders. Another player I’d like to see KC gamble with is Luke Bailey, the GA catcher who is having TJ surgery. He’s a first round talent and has the ability to be really good.
Other draft strategy I want to see KC continue is risk at least one signability pick on a top talent – see Tim Melville or Jason Esposito. It is worth the risk and KC can afford it with lower draft position and not having a second round pick.
Like the strategy of going with as many HS pitchers as possible. Duffy, Montgomery, Lamb, Melville will be exciting pitchers down the road.
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