MOD: Padres
by pffriberg on May 13, 2009 9:50 PM EDT
19 comments
Padres MOD
As you know, John’s Mock Draft is 3 rounds. In those three rounds, the Padres, uncharacteristically, only have 3 picks: 3, 52, and 83.
Obviously Stephen Strasburg will go #1 overall to the Washington Nationals. While it’s less obvious, the consensus is that UNC outfielder, Dustin Ackley, will go number 2 to the Seattle Mariners. Personally, I’m hoping Tanner Scheppers or Aaron Crow or someone emerges as a “wow” candidate and slides into that #2 slot and Ackley is available for the Padres at #3.
However, chances are, the Mariners will take Ackley and if that happens there are a lot of apples to compare to oranges, bananas, and grapes… Do you like polished collegiate arms? Alex White or Kyle Gibson might be your guy… Do you like unbridled velocity? Here’s Tanner Scheppers. How about a high-upside high school hurler? Door 3 has righties Zach Wheeler and Shelby Miller and lefties Tyler Matzek and Matt Purke. Do you like 5-tool high school outfielders? Let me introduce you to Donovan Tate. You could make a case for any of those and few others in the top 5… Unfortunately, for virtually every one of those, you can also make a case that they do not belong in the top 10. Let the debate begin!
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Ackley or Tate
The Padres haven’t struck gold with a pitcher in the 1st since Andy Benes. I don’t want the Padres to put top three money into a pitcher with all the bad luck they’ve had with the knife (Schmidt, Carrillo, Stauffer). As much as I like Blanks, Kulbacki and Decker, this organization could use more high ceiling position players.
Kulbacki and Decker have all their value in their bats. It would be nice to finally have a high-ceiling hitter that can contribute in a positive way on the defensive side.
Ackley is no doubt the number-one target with Todd Helton-type hitting skills, but I would be more than pleased if Tate is the alternative. His tool set is tailor made for PETCO. This organization desperately needs a flashy, all-around star that brings people to the park. Tate is the slam dunk choice if Ackley is gone.
by sdbaseballfan on May 13, 2009 10:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BPA
The sad state of the SD Padres, and noting their lack of recent impact draft successes and a new ownership group lead me to believe that the Padres will go with the BPA, and that, in my opinion, is Donovan Tate. Hugeupside, plays a premium position, and if he deosn’t sign, well, no big thing, because the Padres are at least 3 years away from contending anyhow.
Dustin Ackley is a guy who really should be the #2 pick to SEA, and really, upside is tantamount for the organization, as they need rto start a cycle of positive news for their fans, and Tate is the guy.
Secondarily, and no less important, is the recent development of Kyle Blanks in LF. With their other CF prospects(Venable, Hunter, Huffman), being less than plus defenders, it becomes apparent that a plus defender like Tate will cover up for the corners deficiencies, at least defensively.
by thomasps3 on May 13, 2009 10:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree with your reasoning...
…but I don’t completely agree with your preface… “lack of recent impact draft successes…”
Decker should be top 100 guy next year, Darnell could be too… Latos is legit. Now as for luck, having Carrillo, Antonelli, and Schmidt all get hurt isn’t good… but I think they’ve drafted better than their reputation deserves.
Huffman isn’t a CF, he’s a LF – Hunter and Venable are better than their reputation defensively. There’s actually never been questions about Hunter’s D – it’s just BA and scouts wondered when he was drafted if he would out-grow his athleticism and lose the ability to play CF.
Now, I do agree that they should take BPA but is Tate that guy? There are pretty significant questions about his contact-ability…
by pffriberg on May 13, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I should clarify "impact"
The word impact to me is refelcted in the last five years 1st round choices:
Allan Dykstra - Ummm, AG anyone? And he had his signing bonus reduced because of physical issues
Nick Schmidt – Not true #1 stuff, better profiles as a middle rotation starter
Matt Antonelli – What the heck happened?
Cesar Carrillo and Cesar Ramos – Carrilo injured, Ramos organizational depth at this point
These premium picks should have been the foundation for a team who has budgetary constraints at the free agent level. Instead, what I see is a few guys who were overdrafts at worst and fringy type MLB players. No front of the rotation types. No one outstanding player. Not one.
That to me is what I call impact.
Tate is the most explosive player in this draft, and answers the question as to who will man the OF for the next decade in Padreland….in my opinion.
by thomasps3 on May 13, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong...
I LOVE Tate’s athleticism and upside, I just worry when (about a hitter) the concern is the bat.
And that’s what I was getting at in my opening statement, “Unfortunately, for virtually every one of those, you can also make a case that they do not belong in the top 10.”
I would argue that Dykstra’s power potential is “impact…”
Antonelli is playing again – he reached AA in his first full season of pro ball. Yes, he struggled in AAA and he just now back playing again but let’s not close the door on him just yet.
Carrillo (as a draft pick) cannot be argued against. He was MONEY in college and threw 95-6 on his 4-seamer. He’s essentially back to that point in terms of velocity but he isn’t pitching like he did when the Padres drafted him. Ramos – I agree.
Schmidt, I wanted Main – EVERYONE (except the Tigers) passed on Porcello – so let’s not go there – but now Main isn’t pitching well either… Yes he’s a #3 (at best) but that’s not a terrible selection at 21.
These premium picks should have been the foundation for a team who has budgetary constraints at the free agent level.
ABSOLUTELY AGREE!!!
Instead, what I see is a few guys who were overdrafts at worst and fringy type MLB players. No front of the rotation types. No one outstanding player. Not one.
Ummm… I disagree pretty strongly… Decker (1st sup.) is talked about by BA as a top 100 guy. He’s a legit impact RF. I still believe strongly in Cedric Hunter (3rd) as an above-average CF. Kulbacki (1st sup) can rake! He may be LF instead of RF but dude can hit. We drafted Andrew Cumberland (1st sup.) and he’s one of the top athletes in the system. He won’t hit for premium power (prob barely average power) but if he can stay healthy and progress he’s a legit SS w/ a solid bat – he was one of the best SS in that draft. Our 1st selections have each had issues (injuries, etc.) but I think inaccurate to say we have not drafted outstanding players…
Again, I’m not knocking Tate as a potential pick – I just think the system has a lot better players (more hitters than pitchers) than people say.
by pffriberg on May 14, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You forget international sigings
It is apparent from the past couple of years that the Padres are more inclined to take a high end college player in the first round, high school players in the Supplemental to 3rd round range. They are also adding a lot of potential athletic, high end talent internationally. Last year they signed:
Padres: RHP Adys Portillo, Venezuela (age 16) – $2 million bonus
Padres: OF Luis Domoromo, Venzuela (age 16) – $1.25 million bonus
Padres: SS Alvaro Aristy, Dominican Republic (age 16) – $1 million bonus
Padres: IF/OF Corey Adamson, Australia (age 16) – $500,000 bonus
This talent with the exception of Portillo who was ranked as the 100th best prospect by Kevin Goldstein has yet to really matriculate into organizational rankings, etc.
by SoCal760 on May 14, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very true...
…and actually I thought of those (and you could go back further and talk about Simon Castro, Pedro Martinez, Stephen Osuna, Edinson Rincon, Yefri Carvajal, and others) but he specifically used the verb “drafted” so I didn’t mention the international signees.
by pffriberg on May 14, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don’t be so sure about my team, especially when we haven’t even decided!
by AndrewZStebbins on May 13, 2009 10:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here are the guys I'm considering at #3
(listed alphabetically)
Dustin Ackley, OF, UNC
Aaron Crow, RHP, Independent baseball
Kyle Gibson, RHP, U. Missouri
Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano HS, California
Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS, Texas
Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS, Texas
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Independent baseball
Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, Georgia
Zach Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS, Georgia
Alex White, RHP, UNC
Click on the player to get the MLB.com scouting report on the player.
Additionally, you can look at Baseball America’s Draft Tracker (free) to see other top prospects.
If there’s someone I’m forgetting let me know and let me know why…
by pffriberg on May 14, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No Grant Green?
According to KLaw:
San Diego likes Grant Green, but Tate and Gibson are in their mix and they may be warming on Crow.
In an effort to contradict the subject of the post, Tower’s has been on record saying they went heavy after hitting last year as the strength of the draft this year is the pitching. Also it seems that given Tower’s apparent frustration in the lack of high end arms in the system they may be more inclined to take on a player like a Zach Wheeler, Tanner Schneppers, or Aaron Crow that are more on the stuff end of the spectrum as opposed to pitchability.
by SoCal760 on May 14, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're not predicting what the Padres will do...
We’re doing what we think they SHOULD do if we were in charge and had that 3rd pick.
Additionally, regarding the hitter/pitcher argument, this needs to be required reading for the MOD: Padres group.
I’m not really considering Green anymore since he’s dropping like a rock (on account of his hitting/power regressing)…
by pffriberg on May 14, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1 more thing...
As much as I want a top SS in the system, I don’t want to reach to get one.
However, if you disagree please – by all means – give me a good argument why Green should be considered over the guys I have listed.
by pffriberg on May 14, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA has their Mock Draft 1.0 up
…it’s a subscirber thing, so I won’t divuldge much, but they have us taking Grant Green. As of right now, I don’t think we’re going that way.
by pffriberg on May 14, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would draft...
Tate and hope a shortstop like Ryan Jackson falls to them in the second. Tate would bring star potential, being compared to players like Carlos Beltran. He would take a little while to get to the majors, but could bat anywhere in the line up once he gets to the majors.
by joegonzo on May 14, 2009 7:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm....
Not to say no, but no… Ryan Jackson = Beemer Weams and we already have that player. Now if Jackson is available in the 3rd round, maybe. I think there’s legit talent (col. pitchers, high school bats, etc.) in the 2nd.
I could go for Tate – he definitely has top 3 talent, but he’s also fairly high “bust” risk.
by pffriberg on May 14, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another name
I’d like to add Jacob Turner to the list of guys that we’re talking about. I read somewhere that he was touching 98 in his last outing.
by Paul R. on May 20, 2009 8:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jonathon Mayo's Mock
I hope that this is not the direction that we go.
by Paul R. on May 21, 2009 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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