MOD Mariners
by AndrewZStebbins on May 13, 2009 8:23 PM EDT
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PrintThere is Stephen Strasburg. And there is everyone else.
There are the Washington Nationals. And then there are baseball's 29 other teams.
The Seattle Mariners essentially kick things off, selecting Second Overall from a group of everyone except San Diego State's righty phenom Strasburg. Scouts consider this year to be a "down year" in terms of the depth of talent at the top but in the Mariners' front office we aren't complaining...sure, Strasburg would be nice, but if you don't laugh at our pick we won't laugh at yours. There is a lot of uncertainty this year and it starts when the M's are on the clock.
Besides pick #2, Seattle holds picks 27, 33, 51, and 82 (that's as high as we're going in this excersise).
As scouting director, I can't get out to see ALL of the best players in the country, so please, send me your recommendations as to how I should continue to stockpile talent in our farm system. In the end, the decision is mine, but take pride in knowing you did your part to make the Seattle Mariners a winner.
Be sure to vote in the poll...and I'll keep you updated as to what we're thinking here at HQ.
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JACK Z
Here are my thoughts.
We have a system that has a lot of high risk high reward type players. I think that we really need to get some players into our system that are a little less raw and show some more polish. We really have a lack of depth from the left side of the mound and while we have some live arms from the right side they are all still relative far from the Majors. In the outfield we do have some good high upside guys but once again most of it is far away or in the case of our top prospect heading into the year (Halman) have really struggled. On the infield most of our guys profile as corner guys down the road and once again there is nobody really all that close to breaking in with the big club.
Our new General Manager Jack Zduriencik built the Milwaukee system up from a laughing stock of the league by drafting college bats like Braun, Gamel and LaPorta. It is our job with these five picks in the top 100 to restock this system with players we strongly believe will be success once they leave college or high school. We want guys with good make up, show a fair level of advancement at there position or a solid feel for pitching.
At number 2, I’m personally looking at Ackley I think he makes the most sense at this point for our organization. We can watch him closely from now until the draft and see how much cf he plays. Once he’s in the system we can start him there and move him if he can’t stick. The bat is the best in the draft and he can get the the majors quickly.
Number 27, I really think we should be looking at a pitcher at this point. Mike Minor, Tyler Skaggs, and Jacob Turner look like possibilities here.
Number 33, as with our pick before we should be taking the BPA. AT this point in the draft would a guy like Luke Bailey be worth a shot if he’s still on the board? Is he signable and do we feel we have the time to be able to wait for him to recover from the injury to his elbow? What about a Kendal Volz, Brooks Raley, or Kentrail Davis here?
Number 51, Looking at this point in the draft guys like DJ LeMahieu, Jason Kipnis, Josh Phegley, Angelo Songco, Robbie Shields and Brad Boxberger might be availabe still and would fit what we are looking for what do you think?
Number 82, At this point if we don’t feel we’ve taken a chance with anybody maybe we could look at taking a guy that has dropped unexpectedly? Or is there any specific names that pop out here that may still be on the board?
BPA
With new management I’m bringing my plan to Seattle to select the best player available, everypick, according to scouts like you. I agree, it could be Ackley, and a lot can change right now so I won’t tip my hand (yet) as to who I’m learning toward, but it will be the best player available – like you were saying.
Very good suggestions for each pick and your take on our farm system is realistic and honest, but my philosophy is if the best player is a shortstop and the organization doesn’t neccesarily have a need at the position I’m still going for the shortstop. I’m glad you’ve come aboard. Welcome.
Also, thanks to everyone for voting in the poll. You’re doing your part. These things count. And please, suggest players here in the comments section. That will give me the opportunity to get a last look before the big day. I’ll be back with a big update early next week, but will be available here in the comments.
by AndrewZStebbins on May 14, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
27
I don’t think Turner falls this far unless he’s asking for an absurd number, and if so does Seattle really meet his price? Recent trend says Lincoln/Armstrong/Yamaguchi? are not willing to let managment go above slot (’07/Miller, ’09/Melville).
I think you could probably get Minor with the 33, but I agree that we should consider a lefty at either 27 or 33. There’s a good number of them, hopefully (doubtfully) one of Brothers, Paxton, Oliver falls. They all have plus stuff and I’d take any of those 3 at 27 in a heartbeat.
Paul5418
We’re going to pick the best available player with our 27th selection, and we certainly have plenty of both college and high school lefties on our draft board. Also, we’re prepared to negotiate with a player and his advisor/agent starting on draft day…rumors before the draft that surface in the media will not scare us off. (Also, remember, this isn’t exactly what I think the Mariners WILL do, but what they “should do,” it would only be because of coincidence that our picks are identical…and anyway, besides the first round who hears what a team plans on doing with their picks?)
I’m on a roadtrip right now (can’t say where ;)) watching a bunch of games…I’ll update when I return on Tuesday.
by AndrewZStebbins on May 16, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Ackely, then pitching
I agree with Bouncer that it would be nice to get a few more polished guys in the system. The M’s have plenty of upside boom/bust guys.
Ackley is the clear choice at #2 for me. Even though the M’s OF is one of their strengths (both in the majors and the minors), his combination of a very good ceiling, a very high floor, and polish make him an easy pick for me. Hopefully he develops into Edgar Martinez’s bat (probably with a little less power) with good CF defense.
With the pitching depth this year, I also like the idea of taking the best pitcher available at #27. I guess you could say BPA, but I honestly believe it will probably be a pitcher at this point. And usually at this point in the draft the players available are close enough in talent level that BPA is more personal preference than anything. Impossible to tell exactly how things will shake out, but it would be nice if one of the hard throwing lefties like Brothers, Oliver, Paxton, James, or Skaggs. I prefer a lefty to a righty here just because I think there will still be good righties available at the later picks, but the lefties will dwindle more quickly. Not a ton of position players I like here unless someone like Poythress or Mier falls.
I still think there will be good value in pitchers at #33. Lefties might be thinning out, but plenty of righties might still be around. Might also be a good time to take one of the top catching prospects since this is another deep area. Barely worth mentioning the names here since it is so speculative, but I tend to think the overdrafts will be in the thin positions (SS, OF, 1B/3B) and the good values will be where the draft is deep (SP and C).
Brian Pearl at #51? Local guy, late riser up draft boards. Really the only name worth throwing out, things are really too jumbled.
If the budget allows it, I really like the idea of grabbing a guy that has dropped lately because of an injury. Maybe a Luke Bailey (depending on signability) or Rice’s Ryan Berry (who was getting 1st round buzz earlier in the spring). Look at someone who was going to go a few rounds earlier, pay the guy, then hope for the best. Need talent and this is a good way to find it. Bet the Pirates are wishing they had signed Scheppers last year, and I’m thinking of a similar risk with this pick (albeit a bit later and at this point there isn’t someone quite comparable to Scheppers last year).
Honestly, it wouldn’t shock me to see the M’s take Ackely, then all pitchers with the next picks with so much depth.
Mymrbig
We’ll see. Look for an update tomorrow or Wednesday. What a great weekend of baseball.
by AndrewZStebbins on May 18, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
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