MOD Blue Jays
by GoJays7 on May 13, 2009 11:35 AM EDT
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PrintThe Blue Jays have five picks through the first three rounds. They pick at 20, 37, 68, 99 and 104.
I think it is becoming pretty clear that the strength of this draft is pitching and a good arm from either the college or prep ranks should be available at 20.
I hope this will be a good place for draft discussion as it relates to the Blue Jays in real life and this mock draft. Hopefully we'll see some of the names that have participated in previous years.
If anybody wants to volunteer to be the Deputy Scouting Director then the job is yours, just post in this thread.
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Initial Thoughts
I’m a believer in going the BPA route. As mentioned earlier, I think there’s a good chance that’ll be an arm in the first round. Here are some guys who I think are interesting and might be available at 20 or 37 (in no concrete order at this point).
For 20:
Mike Leake, RHP Arizona State
James Paxton, LHP Kentucky
Andrew Oliver, LHP Oklahoma State
Bobby Borchering, 3B Florida HS
Shelby Miller, RHP Texas HS
Jacob Turner, RHP Missouri HS
Matt Hobgood, RHP California HS
Chad James, LHP Oklahoma HS
For 37
Kyle Heckathorn, RHP Kennesaw State
Alex Wilson, RHP Texas A&M
Matt Davidson, 3B California HS
Drew Storen, RHP Stanford (hopefully the Jays could transition him to being a starter)
Everett Williams, OF Texas HS
Jeff Malm, 1B Nevada HS
Help
I’m happy to help out sort through names and priorities until the 4th or so, when I’ll be unavailable. Definitely a BPA guy myself. I don’t think Leake lasts until the Jays pick, nor S. Miller. I want to hear more about the demands of Turner. I haven’t heard anything about Hopgood that makes him stick out for me. I’m not too keen on Oliver, either.
Paxton could be a great pick. So, too, could James. I would also definitely keep an eye on Mike Trout for the first pick.
For 37, I don’t think Heckathorn is around and from what I’ve read, Matt Davidson is not as good as his numbers (mostly sub-par competition. I think Storen could be a great fit. Wilson might even an overdraft at that slot. I think Brooks Raley might be a great fit in that area as well
by ofsticksandbats on May 13, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
Good To See You
I thought you’d be around quickly.
I do agree with a lot of your thoughts on player availability but at this point I just listed names with some chance of being available that I liked, but as we get closer to the draft I think the realistic options will be pared down as quite a few players will obviously not drop to positions where we could draft them.
I don’t LOVE any of the HS pitchers in the draft but I do think most of the ones that have first round grades attached to them are intriguing. You could probably even include Skaggs on that list for 20 but he’s probably the one I’m least interested in.
On Matt Hobgood, I’m not a huge fan but I have read some very glowing comments on him of late. If you want to check them out for yourself see this scouting report. Another article from PG can be found here. Additionally, in BA’s Draft Podcast from May 1st they mentioned that some teams have Hobgood (along with Matzek, Purke, Wheeler, Miller, Turner and I think Younginer though that last one may have been Skaggs or James) among their top 20 players. While he’s not at the top of my list I think he should be considered.
It’ll be interesting to see if Turner ends up making it to UNC. I think that’s a story we’ll have to follow almost up until right before the draft.
I like Oliver as a good velocity lefty with some control but he obviously hasn’t set the world on fire this year (and thus why he would be available at 20). At this point it’s probably pretty marginal for me between him and some of the other HS pitchers. I like Paxton a lot but signing with Boras might be a concern depending on how we play the signability portion of this mock. Still, at 20 I think he’d be a very nice pick if available.
As for Trout, I’m not a real huge fan at this point as while I’m a BPA guy I think the Jays have a lot of similar players (CFers with speed – Eric Eiland and Kenny Wilson) and unless I heard some rave reviews about the bat that pushed him ahead of other candidates at 20 I’d probably elect to go elsewhere with that pick.
I’ve liked Heckathorn for a long time but I agree the odds are not great he’ll be there at 37. If he isn’t I like Alex Wilson a lot. I think he’s been underrated by some sources this year after being put into the BP due to some poor performances earlier in the year but on the whole his component numbers are outstanding and the scouting reports (mid 90s heat and good secondary stuff) are there to match. I don’t think the Jays will be able to get him at 68 and I really do think there’s a good chance he’s the best guy available at 37.
Matt Davidson has some tools but I’m not incredibly into him either, which is the reason for the separation between him and Borchering (who I like a lot). I like what I’m hearing about Storen and if he continues to perform well and sentiment grows that he could transition to starting as a pro then I think he could rise to the top of the list of contenders for this pick. I’m not really looking at Brooks Raley right now, as I just don’t believe he has enough stuff to go after early in the draft.
Just wanted to add some other guys that I like are Mychal Givens, SS Florida HS, Robert Stock, RHP USC, Brooks Pounders, RHP California HS, and Jake Barrett, RHP Arizona HS. These are names that I’d like to target in rounds 2 and 3 right now, though so far away from the draft it is impossible to predict where the stock of each of these players will be.
Eiland
Do you have any idea where he is right now?
by ofsticksandbats on May 13, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
He's in the instructional league
A bit too much depth at the lower ranks I think. By depth, I mean young players who haven’t panned out. I’d like to see Eiland get more playing time though.
AWmusic - mp3 blog on independent music..
Hey
Hey, I’m here…..not sure if I have anything new to add as of right now.
Agreed
Definitely an interesting mock as it emphasizes the difference in player valuations for this draft. If it broke like that I’d probably prefer Oliver, Brothers, Borchering or James to Trout but we’ll have to see how it goes.
Trout
I’ve been reading rumours he may go as high as 1-10 to the Nationals as he’s signable.
by ofsticksandbats on May 16, 2009 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Signability Pick
Yeah, there has been speculation that he could go that high but that would more likely be because the Nats could get a deal on him there (below slot deal) which is something they’ll be looking for in any player they select at 10 considering how much money they’re going to be investing in Strasburg (most likely). I did see somewhere (I think somebody mentioned it to me over on the scout.com boards, possibly metafour) that the Tigers might also be considering Trout at 9 so there is definitely a lot of helium to his stock but I don’t know if he’s really going to go that high and on any first round pick I’d like to be very confident in the bat if they’re a hitter and right now I’m not that sold on Trout’s bat. His hitting tools seem to be lagging behind his arm, speed, and defense.
Availability
He may no longer be around
by ofsticksandbats on May 15, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
LHP Josh Turley (Texas HS)
Option for one of our later picks. Fringe-average fastball but outstanding secondary stuff and pitchability, has dominated competition:
BA from August 8th:
Josh Turley, lhp, Texas HS, Texarkana, TexasTurley is a 6-foot, 170-pound lefthander with a fastball that sitsbetween 84 and 85 mph. However, this is the second time I have seenTurley pitch, and it’s the second time that he has absolutely dominatedthe nation’s top high school hitters. The first time I saw him was atUSA Baseball’s Tournament of Stars in June where he pitched fiveperfect innings, striking out 10. At the Area Code Games on Tuesday,Turley pitched two innings, striking out five of the six batters thathe faced. Even more impressive, Turley threw only 19 total pitches inthose five strikeout at-bats. He struck out the side in the firstinning, throwing nine total pitches. Turley complements his fastballwith a very good curveball, changeup and slider—commanding all fourpitches well.
PG’s Report:
JoshTurley is a 2009 LHP/OF with a 6’1’’, 175 lb. frame from Texarkana, TXwho attends Texas. Turley has an athletic build and uses a Hi 3.4 armangle on the mound. He has an easy motion and his fastball sat in themid 80’s this outing. His arm works well and he has good balancedmechanics. He has an outstanding change up with fade which looked likehis best pitch and it is a doozy. He completes his three pitch mix withan excellent 72 mph curveball. He shows great pitchability and is avery effective finesse type LHP. He also is good in the outfield withgood arm strength. He has good bat speed at the plate and solid hittingtools. He is a very good student.
MaxPreps 08/09 Stats:
7-1 (10 appeareances…7 GS?)
54 IP
0.65 ERA
101 K
14 BB
23 H
(also hitting .538 with 4 HR, 8 2B, 2 3B)
Not sure how accurate those stats are, thats what I deciphered from MaxPreps which lists the pitching stats a bit oddly.
Stats from Baylor’s Website (his college signing):
Stats:
- 2008: 8-1, 1.03 ERA, 72.0 IP, 121 K
- Career: 25-5, 1.24 ERA, 160.0 IP, 75 H, 330 K, 15 BB
• 2008 USA Baseball 18-Under Team Trials participant
- Stats: 2 APP, 0-0, 6.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
velo?
mid 80’s is decidely less than fringe-average. That’s well below average. Does he project an extra 5mph?
by ofsticksandbats on May 19, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
While he sounds intriguing I don’t think his stock is high enough that he should be considered in the top three rounds. As I mentioned on the scout.com message boards I think he should probably go to school and prove that he can dominate a higher level with his stuff or hopefully improve his velocity by a couple of ticks.
We’ll see how high he goes on draft day, but this kid just reminds me of someone like Tim Collins. He’s dominated at show case events and to be dominating hitters that badly with that velocity he must have either some ridiculous off-speed stuff, pin-point command, or a combination of both. Theres been no recent reports on his velocity save for the really early BA/PG reports, but if he can add even a few ticks on the fastball he can make some noise as a LHP with his off-speed stuff and command.
Collins comp
Collins has decent velocity – peaking around 90-91 IIRC. If he is a changeup guy, they often do well at lower levels (can’t get much lower than HS and still have stats, eh?).
I say let him add those ticks in college
by ofsticksandbats on May 19, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The comparison to Collins was that both could obviously pitch but aren’t/didn’t get much of a chance because they were written off for things that make people drop pitchers immediately (height, velocity). Collins dominated HS but couldn’t even get a decent scholarship offer because of his height, now this kid has obviously surpassed what Collins did as he’s actually gotten recognition into top show case events, Team USA type stuff, etc. but the point remains that no matter what he does he’s going to be written off as a prospect. You get caught up in drafting guys who can throw hard but cant even hit the strike zone or throw a decent offspeed pitch, in this case you’ve got a kid who has dominated a strong baseball state (Texas) as well as top kids around the country using what appears to be an advanced set of pitchability and/or secondary pitches for someone his age. Even if he only hits 88mph he can play if his secondary stuff develops into two possible plus pitches…just look at Scott Downs. Obviously I’d need to see how his velocity has progressed since he’s put on like 20lbs since the showcase circuit where he threw 85mph.
The point
That’s just it – does he project for more velocity? Some guys are already physically mature at age 17/18 and, as such, do not project for additional velocity. Other guys look like they will continue to grow, and under the right conditions, grow stronger, thereby bumping their velocity up. If, with that additional 20 lbs., Turley has also got his fastball up to around 88mph or so, then he could definitely be a worthwhile prospect.
But you have to remember that lacking height and lacking velocity are two very different things.
by ofsticksandbats on May 20, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Late (Re) Helium
KG yesterday had the Jays taking Mike Minor. A few weeks ago, I would have been totally against that selection, but among his comments was that there has also been speculation that he could go top-10 and he pointed out that Minor has rebounded from a down period marvelously. On the season, he’s pitched 99 innings. Allowed 95 hits and 31 walks, with 103 Ks. 2 CGs shows he could go deep. I don;t know of any injury history. And he came up huge the other day in the SEC tourney against LSU – here’s the link to the box score: http://vucommodores.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2008-2009/vu56.html.
I might be able to be convinced to go on board with that selection.
by ofsticksandbats on May 22, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions
Minor
Jonathan Mayo currently has Minor going 3rd overall to the Padres. BA mentioned in their first mock that this was a possibility and also said he could go to the A’s but ultimately didn’t include Minor in their first round mock.
I’m not a huge Minor fan, but I think he’s a pretty good bet to make the majors. I think there are some similarities between Minor and former Jays draftee Zach Jackson. However, Minor probably has the ability the throw a little harder and he performed better in his freshman and sophomore years than Jackson did, though Jackson was better than Minor in his junior season. I would prefer a higher upside player but I can understand the rationale for grabbing Minor.
Updates
Helium and lead have affected many – any changes to the Jays draft board?
by ofsticksandbats on May 29, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions
Current Board
I think my current board (updated from what I posted on the scout.com message boards), leaving out players that have virtually not shot of reaching the Jays, looks something like this for pick 20 (BA rank in parenthesis):
20:
10. Matthew Purke
16. Bobby Borchering
20. Chad Jenkins
18. Eric Arnett
19. Everett Williams
25. Garrett Gould
24. Chad James
28. Kyle Heckathorn
37. James Paxton
21. Andy Oliver
22. Mike Trout
37:
38. Sam Dyson
35. Mike Minor
36. Drew Storen
42. Matt Davidson
41. Zach Von Rosenberg
40. Matt Hobgood
52. Alex Wilson
68:
59. Jeff Malm
63. Kent Matthes
64. Angelo Songco
67. David Renfroe
77. Josh Phegley
68. Dane Williams
71. Jake Marisnick
99/104:
88. Eric Smith
91. Jeff Kobernus
96. Luke Bailey
101. David Nick
102. Ashur Tolliver
106. Jake Barrett
98. Billy Hamilton
95. JR Murphy
126. Jerry Sullivan
118. Robert Stock
117. Jake Eliopoulos (Canadian Kid)
Check out this thread on the scout.com forums for more of the draft discussion Metafour and I have been holding along with some other posters.
Groups
Of the first group, I like James, Trout and Paxton – but you may be surprised at others who fall to this point.
In the second grouping Storen and Von Rosenberg stick out. I really don;t like Davidson.
3rd group – big believer in Renfroe (signability issues?). Marisnick is also exciting. Malm very interesting as well. Songco and Phegley make me think of lesser versions of David Cooper – pretty much all of their value is tied up in the bat tool.
4th group – Stock, Eliopoulos – haven’t heard as much lately on the other guys, though Kobernus has some recent helium
Good luck
by ofsticksandbats on Jun 6, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
I’ve felt a bit of movement in those groups of late. I’m coming around on Trout after reading PG’s really glowing report on him. Hobgood is another guy with helium that I’ve come around on and I think should be considered in the same group with James and Gould.
I really like Von Rosenberg as well. If we go HS arm with the first pick then I probably wouldn’t do it again with 37 just to control the riskiness of the class, but if we take a HS bat or college arm at 37 I’d be very interested in getting Von Rosenberg. I think Storen will probably go before 37 but it’s possible a guy like Paxton or Oliver will be there and would be a very appealing pick.
I have pretty similar thoughts with regards to the other two groups of players.
Availability
I will be around for most of the first round, but will be off to a bachelor party around 2
by ofsticksandbats on Jun 6, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions
Consensus Board
Do you want to try and come up with a consensus board? At least for the first pick? Here’s what I’m currently thinking
Matthew Purke
Bobby Borchering
Chad Jenkins
Eric Arnett
Everett Williams
Mike Trout
Garrett Gould
Chad James
Matt Hobgood
Kyle Heckathorn
James Paxton
Andy Oliver
I’d be OK with moving Trout ahead of Williams if you guys feel they should be ranked like that and I don’t have a strong order of preference when it comes to the three HS arms.
Blah, heres my initial board for picks. I’m not going to do one for the first pick as quite frankly I have no idea how to rank that group and it’tl depend on how the draft actually plays out…if we’re going past Scheppers/Purke I’d probably have Borchering highest on that board, then the HS pitchers and center fielders in some order that I cant determine.
#37:
LHP Skaggs (if he falls this far, must pick IMO)
OF Mitchell
OF Washington
RHP Storen
IF Davidson
RHP Von Rosenburg
OF Heathcott
#68:
SS Franklin
C Bailey
LHP Bashore
1B Malm
IF/RHP Renfroe
OF Matthes
OF Grichuk
#99/#104:
LHP/OF Raley
IF Dominguez
RHP Berglund
C JR Murphy
RHP Jake Barrett
I’ll have more for the last two picks as the draft rolls around…
Washington
He’ll almost certainly be there at 37, or at least I think so. What makes you so sold on him that high?
Order
Well if it comes to the HS pitchers we should try and get them in some sort of order.
My inclination is to go Gould, James, Hobgood but I think an argument could be made to have them in any order. Hobgood throws the hardest but has no projectability and doesn’t have great control at this point. James throws a tick slower but is a lefty and has strong secondary stuff, but also spotty control at this point. Gould has the least velocity of the trio at this point, though it’s still good for a projectable HS arm, but his curve may be the strongest in the HS class and I think he has the best control of the three.
The HS OFers are very close to the pitchers in my estimation and I don’t really have a problem moving the pitchers ahead. I think Williams then Trout is the right order as Williams has consistently received praise as being near the top of the class in present hitting ability, whereas Trout has been a little further behind (though he does have very strong tools).
Any Thoughts?
Any thoughts with our pick fast approaching?
James or Gibson
If Gibson makes it here – jump on him
James has more athleticism than the other HS pitchers, which, for me – is key
I have reservations about Williams as I don’t think he even played this year – his league had their season cancelled by H1N1
There goes James
I really, really don’t like Davidson
update about Gibson
Kevin Goldstein tweetered that he has a stress-fracture – I say draft him, let him recuperate over the summer and we have a great arm for next year!
Gibson
He has a stress fracture in his arm. What do you think? I’m leaning towards passing.
Williams played. They only had two weeks cancelled.
Gibson
I really, really like a healthy Gibson. Obviously the question is health. I don’t have Twitter so I don’t know if there were any more details, such as the severity of the break and the likelihood and timeline of recovery, but if it being a stress fracture isn’t a huge concern then I’d be happy to select him at 20.
Gibson
Stress fracture is not generally a serious break – surgery shouln’t be required.
Could be great value
Gibson
Yeah, I really liked Gibson coming into the year. I was hoping that something would happen that would make him available to the Jays and I guess an injury was really the only thing that was going to be able to do it. If Gibson gets back right then I think he’s a talent on par with Crow, Scheppers, and Leake.
I forget where I read it
(Maybe BA) – but Gibson was written up as definitely the second best college arm in the pool
BA
Yeah, BA had him #4 on their top 200 list behind Strasburg, Ackley, and Tate. I do think Crowe and Scheppers are competitive with him and Leake should also be considered in the mix as his present stuff and pitchability is similar to Gibson’s, though Gibson has a whole ton of projectability left that could improve his standing in comparison to Leake. Anyway, I’m happy with the pick and would probably be OK with the Jays taking him in real life as long as the medical report is solid and they’re confident he’ll come back.
I don’t really think there is a good looking hitter to pick at #37 unless somebody drops out of the first. So it’s probably going to be a college or HS pitcher.
I like Storen, Paxton, Dyson, Oliver, and Von Rosenberg probably in that order.
List
Want to put up your current possibilities list for the supplemental pick?
Well Metafour had this list for 37
LHP Skaggs (if he falls this far, must pick IMO)
OF Mitchell
OF Washington
RHP Storen
IF Davidson
RHP Von Rosenburg
OF Heathcott
And I previously posted:
38. Sam Dyson
35. Mike Minor
36. Drew Storen
42. Matt Davidson
41. Zach Von Rosenberg
40. Matt Hobgood
52. Alex Wilson
With Minor, Storen, Hobgood and Davidson gone Metafour’s list seems to have more possibilities.
As I see it now players unpicked include
Everett Williams
Garrett Gould (like him a lot too)
Tyler Skaggs
Kyle Heckathorn (I like him quite a bit)
Sam Dyson
Zach Von Rosenberg
Slade Heathcott (tools but questionable makeup and health issues)
Brody Colvin
Jared Mitchell (strikes out too much for me)
LeVon Washington
Rich Poythress
Brett Jackson
Have to run
I like Skaggs, Von Rosenberg, Gould, Dyson and Jackson
Williams is off the board
Skaggs
looks like it would be great for us – one college arm, one prep
So Far
I think this has gone really well for the Jays so far. I’m not a Skaggs lover by any means but this far down in the draft it seemed like very good value (though I would’ve preferred Gould who we just missed on).
From a balance perspective I’d like to get a bat at the next pick but we’ll see who drops as I didn’t expect Gibson or Skaggs to be available.
Washington
I’m not really a fan but he’d fit in with Kenny Wilson and Eric Eiland for sure. Also, as a Boras client I don’t know what his signability is.
Ford the second round
James Paxton
Zach Von Rosenberg
Jeff Malm
Slade Heathcott (tools but questionable makeup and health issues)
LeVon Washington
Nick Franklin
Brody Colvin
Tommy Joseph
Matt Bashore
Todd Glaesman
Chris Dwyer
Kent Matthes
Angelo Songo
Keyvius Sampson
Kentrail Davis
Victor Black
Aaron Miller
Randal Grichuk
Jake Marisnick
Dane Williams
Yeah
You’re probably right in that assumption and with this draft probably already being expensive (as we’ve taken players that have slid down and might still ask for the money they thought they get if drafted higher) we should probably be looking at a guy that’ll be pretty close to slot.
Paxton, Joseph
My bad, I guess I slipped on those two. Just scratch them off the list I guess.
Done
Draft is done, here’s how it worked out:
20. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
37. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, California HS
68. Jeff Malm, 1B, Nevada HS
99. Justin Marks, LHP, Louisville
104. Max Walla, OF, New Mexico HS
I think it’s a strong draft. Its success will probably depend on Gibson being healthy, but with the news that it’s just a stress fracture in his right forearm and that it’ll only take 6-8 weeks to heal the outlook doesn’t look so bad in that regard. If Gibson is healthy I think he’s a top 10 and maybe a top 5 talent in this draft and position directly behind Strasburg in the second tier of college/indy ball pitchers. The two HS bats are supposed to be bat first guys. Malm is tied for the all-time hits record for HS and Walla is compared to Jaff Decker, a player I loved for last year’s draft and who is killing it in the minors for the Pads now. I don’t love Skaggs but at 37 he is good value and a very high upside player. If he really grows into his frame and adds some velocity he could be a very good pitcher for the Jays. Finally, Justin Marks was a safer pick that really fits what the Jays look for. He’s a lefty with pretty good stuff who commands it well and has an strong track record.
Great job!
I would be very excited if the Jays pulled off that crop. Very intrigued by Malm. I heard the Walla/Decker comps, but only for body-type – still – great name! Marks can be this year’s Liebel type. Gibson and Skaggs are awesome value at these picks
by ofsticksandbats on Jun 7, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
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