Adam Jones is SICK!!!
by bravitos5122 on May 12, 2009 11:54 PM EDT
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I thought he had a Mike Cameron ceiling, no shame in that. Yeah, its early but he obviously is a superstar in the making. Glad I acquired him in a keeper league for Elijah Dukes! lol.
Another opportunity to lol @ Bill Bavasi. Chris Tillman threw 6 shutout innings tonight striking out 10.
A Markakis/Jones/Reimold outfield has a chance to be the best OF in baseball even if Reimold is just average. And I think he is going to be good.
Will Jones surpass Sizemore as the best young CFer in baseball?
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I don't think so
Grady Sizemore is a guy you can build a team around, I think at best Adam Jones will be a guy who is an excellent asset.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 12, 2009 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure
With the skill growth Jones has shown this year, I think it’s entirely possible.
by Fanon on May 13, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Grady Sizemore is the threshold for the type of guy you want to build a team around...
then theres only like what? 7 of those guys in baseball, max?
by alskor on May 13, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not the threshold
It’s just I wouldn’t commit to building a team around Adam Jones. Considering his BABIP is .415, his success may level off. I love Adam Jones, it’s just that he’s not a franchise player. There is more than 7 guys who’d I’d build a team around taking youth into account, I’ll list some here:
(In no order)
1. Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. David Wright
4. Jose Reyes
5. Tim Lincecum
6. Johan Santana
7. B.J. Upton
8. Miguel cabrera
9. Ryan Braun
10. Evan Longoria
11. Dustin pedroia
12. Nick Markakis
13. Chase Utley
and a bunch of guys on the fence that I’d build around over Jones in a second:
1. Cole Hamels
2. Chad Billingsley
3. Felix Hernandez
4. C.C. Sabathia
5. Carl Crawford
6. Matt Kemp (ideal version of Jones’ development)
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Brian McCann/Geo Soto/russ Martin/Joe Mauer
9. Matt Wieters (if he lives to his hype)
10. Joey Votto
etc., etc., etc. I think you get my point.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 13, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Mets have 4 guys you can build a team around but can’t win their division. :)
by wobatus on May 13, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Omar Minaya thinks baseball teams are built like basketball teams
Five on five, the Mets would be amazing. Too bad that’s not how the sport is played.
by aap212 on May 15, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ian Kinsler?
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on May 13, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree Jones ain't Sizemore and Im not convinced Jones will be a superstar by any means
but I think a Granderson type player is possible… perhaps even likely… and you did list Granderson as a guy you would build around.
by alskor on May 13, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
SHOCKED to see Longoria that low.
He’d be top 4 on my list… and if we’re taking into account years of control and contract he would be #1.
by alskor on May 13, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Quentin?
where is the love
by kershaw_equals_stud on May 13, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Justin Upton
he’s already better than BJ and 4 years younger
by ScottAZ on May 13, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who cares?
If you feel a franchise can be built around him? You just named 2 Orioles that you feel a franchise can be built around…
by cowboy4eva on May 13, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahem +1
Mauer/Morneau? Can’t build a team aroung a 2x batting champ and former MVP but you can around B.J. Upton?
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on May 13, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morneau?
-1
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on May 13, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agree with you
I would include Morneau in the upper tier 1b along with Pujols, Texeira, Berkman, Howard, but not in the top tier of all players in the game.
by ScottAZ on May 14, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently...
defense doesn’t matter at all. Even with his great bat, UZR/WAR has Braun as no more than a 4-win player at any point in his career. Adam Jones is a plus defensive center fielder with 30hr power. His ceiling is higher than that of Braun, Crawford,Kemp, and Votto by a longshot. If he can settle in around .280/.360/.480, he’s a 5-win player. Any more than that, and he’s a legitimate franchise player. There were only 23 5 WAR position players last year, and the list of guys who can do it year in, year out is much smaller. Jones is still only 23, and he’s busting out this year. He’s definitely a potential franchise player, who contributes to run production with a plus bat, and run prevention with a plus glove at a premium position.
by slamcactus on May 13, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BP chat from a few weeks ago
doughk (DC): Would you rather have Markakis or Jones for the next 6 years?
Joe Sheehan: "If I get to consider contracts, Markakis, since he’s signed already to a deal I like. If it’s just on performance…it’s harder to say. Jones’ upside is actually higher because he plays CF well and has more growth potential. If he continues his improvement in pitch recognition, the sky is the limit.
This is a really tough question, and I may be overrating Jones by making it one. I’m going to say Markakis for the certainty, but it’s awfully close."
by drwmsu1 on May 13, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
GUYS!!!
These aren’t all the players I’d build around, just some I plucked off the top of my head in a couple minutes. Obviously I missed some (as you’ve proven) but the point I was trying to make is that Adam Jones is not going to surpass Grady Sizemore at the best young CF.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 13, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point...
that others are making is that he’s got a lot higher upside than a lot of the players you listed on a very short list of guys you’d build around. Jones is better than Carl Crawford with the bat and the glove. He’s not as good as Braun with the bat, but he laps him 3 times over with the glove, and the positional difference gives him a much higher upside. He’s better in the field than Kemp, younger, and has more power, both presently and in terms of long-term potential. He’s a similar player to Granderson right now, with the biggest differences being that he’s more durable and 5 years younger. He’s got a similar offensive ceiling to Votto, and he’ll knock in those runs while playing CF, which gives him a much higher upside.
He may lose the title of best young CF in baseball to Sizemore, and maybe even to Upton depending on how he bounces back from a rough start this year, but Adam Jones has the potential to be one of the 15 most valuable hitters alive for the next decade. He’s absolutely a potential franchise player.
by slamcactus on May 13, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Possibly
But although his contact skills are great, I don’t see him putting up great OBP numbers due to some poor plate discipline skills (although they are improving this year, so if this improvement becomes permanent that I could revoke my statement). His skills make him an excellent players, all-star, and stud defensive player, but not a Grady Sizemore (who has racked up 199 BB in the last 2 years might I had, versus the 39 BB Jones has in 236 career games).
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 13, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amazingly...
despite what the sanctimonious (and incorrect) sabermetric truisms of the late 90’s/early ’00’s used to say, a player’s overall value is not directly tied to his ability to take a walk. A walk is worth a little less than a single and considerably more than an out in the scheme of overall run expectancy, but a player’s walk rate through his age-23 season really shouldn’t be informative of his overall value unless it’s a MAJOR red flag. It really isn’t in Jones’ case.
Next, the threshhold you’re using to say that Jones isn’t a franchise player, “not as good as Grady Sizemore,” can be 100% true without having any bearing on whether or not Jones is a potential franchise player. Sizemore’s been worth between 5.3 and 7.5 wins above replacement each of the last 4 years. It’s entirely possible to be both worse than Grady Sizemore and a franchise player.
Again, if Jones hits around .290/.360/.480 with his glove in center field he’s a 5-win player. In any given year there are about 20-25 of those in the major leagues. In any given stretch of 5+ years, there are about 10-15 guys who can put up that total several years in a row. That’s a low projection of Adam Jones’ ceiling. He very well may cool off from this hot start and fail to ever reach that ceiling, but on the other hand, he may end up being even better.
If that’s not a potential franchise player, I don’t know what is.
by slamcactus on May 14, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I think my view is that Jones will never reach that ceiling, if he puts up 5-6 win seasons for multiple years, he will by all means be a franchise player; I just really don’t think it will happen. I’m guessing he’ll put up a couple of those years, but not too many times.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on May 14, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hitting between
Roberts and Markakis is a great spot to be and he is taking advantage. If he can sustain the improvement in his BB rate/plate discipline, I think he has a great chance to keep his average .300+ and hit between 20-25 HR this year. He can be Matt Kemp of the AL, with a touch more power and a tad less speed.
by smoooooth on May 13, 2009 1:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That curveball or slider he out tonight was sick
that was just sick, sick nasty. The kid has mad defensive skills, he took away a ton of bases and made several outs that not many OF would have made against the Rangers.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on May 13, 2009 1:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Considering there are 30 teams
And you only named 13 guys you would consider building around, I think he fits in that group. Meaning if a fantasy draft was held today among all MLB teams with all players in the pool, he would be in that 1st round taken.
Yeah, he is playing above his head. But the guy is 23! Some of the guys you mentioned werent this good at 23. I think a .300 25 25 with GG is possible. How many guys can do that at 23?
by bravitos5122 on May 13, 2009 1:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If he can bring his defense back....
…to where it was last season (when he was a +17 win player in the field according to Fangraphs) while keeping up his improvement at the plate, he can be one of the very best in the league.
by James F on May 13, 2009 1:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
in the rained out 2 game set at Camden Yards
against the Minnesota Twins, Adam Jones’ defense was spetacular
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 13, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+17 wins?
I think you meant runs.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 13, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really do Like Adam Jones
He really impresses me with his defense, actually to see in person was quite sick
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 13, 2009 2:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
shandler ...
said in his 2009 projections that jones was a year from breaking out. he wrote something like, “break out in 2009? not yet.” i guess he was off a year :-) i love this guy. but i’ve never seen anyone who had earbuds in ALL THE TIME. there are times when i just don’t need to listen to music. i just hope jones doesn’t get pulled over because it’s illegal to drive with earbuds in your ears (at least it is in florida).
by psugator on May 13, 2009 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"Another opportunity to lol @ Bill Bavasi"
Yeah, Erik Bedard’s numbers this year really make it a real knee-slapper. /sarcasm
by slurve on May 13, 2009 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the major problem with the trade was timing...
He got rooked, too, dont get me wrong. The biggest mistake was thinking his team was a contender based on the previous year’s W/L record and ignoring their pyth and 3rd order wins. That offense was a joke. An Absolute joke… and the only one who didnt see it was Bavasi.
If Bedard got them a championship… or even to the ALCS… sure, then it becomes a more lopsided version of Hanley for Beckett (more lopsided talent wise and more lopsided years of control given up). Thing is, there was like a 1% chance of that happening… because the Mariners were not a very good team.
by alskor on May 13, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
It’s not that it was a totally awful deal talent-wise, it was just a really awful trade for the Mariners.
by Fanon on May 13, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
its pretty close to a totally awful deal talent-wise. Especially when you consider 6 years of Jones and Tillman and 4? years of Sherrill. Also, I still really like Tony Butler’s arm… not given up on him. That versus 2 expensive (arb) years of Bedard. Not a smart move.
Tolerable if its a put you over the top move… well, almost tolerable. Still a bad trade but understandable… because pitchers like Eric Bedard dont grow on trees. Theyre impossible to get. So if it puts you over the top… I can understand it.
If youre doing it to save your job… well, there’s a special level of baseball hell reserved for those people.
by alskor on May 13, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IF...
You’re going to win a championship with Erik Bedard or seriously contend. If not it doesn’t matter how good he is, especially if he’s gone after 2 seasons.
by cowboy4eva on May 13, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely
And if you’ve got a contending thing going on maybe you extend him. When all he does is help you tread water in the basement you’re not going to resign him, and you shouldn’t. If the Red Sox or Rays made that trade today with strictly minor league talent, it would look pretty decent. They’d be giving up a ton, but if it put them over the top, and they signed him long-term, it could be fine. Instead it was one of the worst in awhile. Timing and circumstance are almost as important as talent in baseball trades.
by Fanon on May 13, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah... so... that was my point
Read three posts above.
by alskor on May 13, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best Center Fielder in the AL East
there are alot of quility players roaming center field in the east and I believe Adam is quickly establishing himself as the cream of the crop. I know his numbers are inflated over the first month +, he showed signs of this breakout toward the end of 08’. He patrols center extremely well, and hitting in the 2 hole of that potent top of the line-up sure does lend it’s self to continued success. And about Riemold,Jones, Nick outfield don’t forget Montanez th triple crown winner in the International in 08’.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on May 13, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Am I crazy
for still thinking BJ > AJ?
Obviously their respective starts to the season affect their short term value but BJ Upton is still Godly.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on May 13, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would take Upton, definitely
and Im apparently higher on Adam “Don’t Call Me Pacman” Jones than most, if this thread is any indication.
by alskor on May 13, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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