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2009 Amateur Draft Mock #5 Round One

One of the very tricky parts of mock drafting is the question of signability, more specifically how much a given team might budget for their first pick and how that plays into their future picks.  Whereas most mock drafts try to make a guess as to how a GM or scouting director makes a decision as far as talent and draft history, I try to include where a player might rise or fall due to their price tag.  That makes it infinitely more difficult, so you'll notice how my mock might differ from that of others, even those of experts.  They have the insider info, I don't, but I'm hoping that my mock draft is more realistic in this area than the others.

With that extra opening paragraph aside, here's the fifth installation of my weekly mock draft, with round one starting it off:

 

1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - Yeah, when you throw a no-hitter with your future team's front office in the audience, you're pretty much a rock star.  I hear Lastings Milledge already hates him.  Previously: #1.
2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, OF, North Carolina - The time has come to take off the first baseman tag from Ackley.  He played a full nine innings in center field this weekend, all in a single game, and his arm held up fine.  Add that to the fact that he's a .400 hitter in the ACC and you have yourself a solid #2 pick.  Previously: #2.
3. San Diego - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints - This is a fluid pick, and I reserve the right to change it tomorrow morning when I see how Scheppers does tonight.  He's slated to go another 75 pitches or so from what I read last time, so I should know more by tomorrow morning.  Power pitcher in San Diego.  Match found.  Previously: #11.
4. Pittsburgh - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - Same goes for this pick.  I reserve the right to change my mind.  I think the general audience has underestimated just how good Crow is.  He was the top college pitcher taken in a strong class last year, just one without a Strasburg.  Don't hold that against him.  Previously: #6.
5. Baltimore - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Although the battle for first prep pitcher taken is far from done, there's quite a few things working in Matzek's favor.  In a year with a lot of uncertainty, he offers good upside while being more advanced than your normal prep arm.  Baltimore could add him to the stack of pitching and young hitting.  Previously: #8.
6. San Francisco - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - Gibson's usage is really starting to worry me.  It was about the same point a year ago when I started wondering if teammate Aaron Crow's arm would hold out long enough to get him a first round slot.  However, Gibson's command is still the best, and he's a safe, solid pick.  Previously: #5.
7. Atlanta - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - This is one of the few picks this week that I don't have to take a look at my mock draft spreadsheet.  I just know his name fits here if he's available.  Good upside, above-average prep polish, local product.  Check, check, check.  Previously: #7.
8. Cincinnati - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - While his teammate took a step forward this weekend, Alex White was busy getting relatively beaten up by a helpfull NC State squad.  Not a good outing at a pivotal time for White.  I'd suspect there were a number of scouts present, hoping to see a Strasburg-like outing from him.  Crushing blow.  Previously: #3.
9. Detroit - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX) - Even with all the questions about his lack of lower body use in his delivery, I'm hearing way too many good things about Purke to ignore him.  He's probably a top ten guy now, and Detroit would be lucky to have him.  He's also a slot sign.  Previously: #12.
10. Washington - Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State - And this week's lucky winner is Tim Wheeler.  I think he's surpassed Jared Mitchell quite easily with another impressive weekend, and it's time to start thinking of Wheeler as a legit prospect for this bargain slot of signability.  Previously: #28.
11. Colorado - Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State - This guy just won't go away.  Leake continues to utterly dominate the Pac 10, and while it's not the strongest of conferences, you have to take notice.  He's making some noise, and I'd be surprised if he lasted past Cleveland at #15.  Previously: #13.
12. Kansas City - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX) - I think the Royals would be terrified of picking the wrong guy here, if these players were on the board, but going with the high upside arm here makes plenty of sense after a couple of years with hitters.  Miller's where Zack Greinke was as a prep.  Previously: #14.
13. Oakland - Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb - I expect some heat over this one, but I still see Oakland going with a solid college arm in this draft.  The options are just too good, and the alternatives are just too risky.  At least Brothers has good upside.  Previously: #15.
14. Texas - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - I, like most talent evaluators out there, believe Tate has done too little to convince teams he's good enough for a top ten slot.  However, the Rangers have fallen in love with toolsy outfielders of late, and Tate would be a good pick for a team with a solid system.  Previously: #4.
15. Cleveland - Grant Green, SS, USC - For some reason, I don't see Green getting past Cleveland here at #15, but he could continue to hit his way south.  The phrase I'd use to describe Green right now is sinking brick, but he could rebound.  It's just too expensive of a mistake to draft a light-hitting shortstop with questionable hands.  Previously: #9.
16. Arizona - Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA) - I'm getting the feeling that Stassi has benefitted more from Luke Bailey's injury than I first realized.  His untangibles have always been graded up, as seen here.  He'll be the first catcher off the board.  Previously: #25.
17. Arizona - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - Oliver picked a good time to start waking up, and I think he's pretty firmly in the top twenty or so picks.  I wonder about his price tag, but then I figure that he hasn't had a good enough year to hold out, and there will be a worry about him regressing next and losing upwards of $1 million.  Previously: #19.
18. Florida - Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA) - Another prep player I've underestimated is Jiovanni Mier, whose ability to stick at shortstop is a huge plus in this draft market.  He's signable, a big plus for the Marlins, and he'd be a nice combination with last year's pick Kyle Skipworth.  Previously: #27.
19. St. Louis - James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky - Well, I started to think about what Paxton's signing on with Scott Boras meant, and then I figured Boras was signing Paxton with a vision for the future.  I don't think it affects his price tag too much this year, and there's always a short supply of hard-throwing lefties.  Oliver and Paxton are interchangable in a few ways.  Previously: #20.
20. Toronto - Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ) - With their favorite Canadian Paxton off the board, and questionable options available, I expect Toronto to go for athleticism.  Trout's a perfect pick for a team with patience, and having a center fielder locked up long-term breeds that patience.  Previously: #24.
21. Houston - Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy - Yes, I know the Astros took a catcher in the first round last year.  However, Myers' ability to stick at catcher is a little questionable, and his athleticism and bat make him the obvious option here.  Previously: #30.
22. Minnesota - Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL) - I've actually seen a few references to Borchering as if he's already a first baseman, which could hurt his stock a little.  However, he's still got the bat, and he's signable to the Twins here.  Previously: #22.
23. Chicago (AL) - Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia - He's still got the bat, but a lot of the teams drafting above here have either established first basemen or ones in their system.  If things pan out this way, though, the White Sox would be happy to have him.  Previously: #16.
24. Los Angeles (AL) - Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU - Even though the Angels have money, they'll still be on a budget, and they have tons of picks.  Mitchell's a solid pick here, and even though the Angels don't have the history, I think they go with a college bat somewhere in their first five picks.  Previously: #10.
25. Los Angeles (AL) - Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK) - Alright, I jumped him a little too much last week, but James is still a first rounder.  The Angels would jump on board with James if he was available here.  I have no doubt about that.  Previously: #17.
26. Milwaukee - Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA) - Still hanging on to that first round status, Skaggs will go to a team that values size and a long-term pitching program.  Skaggs could pay serious dividends for teams here, and he's also a signable prep.  Previously: #21.
27. Seattle - Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS (CA) - Hobgood's another guy I probably jumped a little too high this week, but he still deserves more attention than he normally gets.  He's quietly placed himself solidly into first round consideration, and some team will get more from him than expected.  Previously: #18.
28. Boston - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO) - Turner's the main reason I put my opening paragraph in today, as he's much better than the 28th best prospect in this year's draft.  He's just scary as far as signability goes.  He's Matt Harvey circa 2007.  Great arm though.  Previously: #29.
29. New York (AL) - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC) - I see the Yankees once again going with a big arm in the draft this year, and they'll have a big enough budget and better sensibility to make sure they sign this one.  Younginer may be a bullpen arm in the long-run, but that arm is too good to pass up.  Previously: #26.
30. Tampa Bay - Tommy Joseph, C, Horizon HS (AZ) - While some disagree with me, I think Joseph has firmly planted himself as the third best catching prospect.  I still do think the Rays go with a catcher at some point, mainly due to the fact that they have better bats than a lot of their up the middle counterparts.  Previously: #39.
31. Chicago (NL) - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt - Minor also chose an opportune time to wake up, as I'd already slid him back to the supplemental first round in my mind before he pitched this weekend.  He's a solid, unspectacular arm, that could be hyped up for more in a big market.  Previously: #23.
32. Colorado - AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame - I still think this makes too much sense, especially for a team on a budget with two first round picks and a supplemental first rounder two picks later.  Pollock is athletic and signable, and his bat actually works.  Previously: #32.

 

The usual disclaimer: writeups on draft status going into the draft were a mixture of BA and PG unless otherwise noted.  Go to their sites for draft coverage.  They're awesome.

I said all I needed to say in my opening paragraph.  What do you think?

6 recs  |  Comment 42 comments |

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Appreciate These

Definitely a fan of your mock drafts and the constant revisions and updates, but do you really see the White Sox taking a 1B/DH type? Their system is sorely lacking in pitching and many of the highly regarded prospects are potentially 1B/DH players. (Flowers, Viciedo, Allen etc) I’m certainly no expert, just curious about the reasoning.

Thanks, and keep up the good work!

by DirtySox on May 11, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

It's always about best player available.

And Poythress is just that. They’re not big gamblers generally, and Poythress’ bat is rated pretty highly. I see what you’re saying, but the other options available there just aren’t as good.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

A's--College pitcher over Tate

You really think the A’s would take a college pitcher over a toolsy guy like Donovan Tate? Personally, I would think that Tate having the high upside and the dearth of projectible bats in the farm system would cause the A’s to lean toward the high school outfielder. But that’s just personal preference (i.e. what I would want to happen).

by nobodyinparticular on May 11, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Tate's falling like a rock.

And I also don’t see the A’s paying his price tag. I think he’ll want $4-5 million to sign, maybe as low as $3 million. Unless the A’s want to burn up the vast majority of their budget there, that’s not going to happen.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm...

not sure Green has fallen quite that far. He’s had a disappointing season to be sure, but scouts still love him, and he’s impressed a lot with wood bats already. Only time will tell, but I still think he’ll end up in the top-10.

by slamcactus on May 11, 2009 4:15 PM EDT reply actions  

scouts still love him

I’m hearing quite the opposite at this point. Scouts are dreamers, but they were dreaming that Green’s nice summer would result in showing more power with the bat, and he’s done the opposite. In addition, while they used to dream about him becoming a nice shortstop, the vast majority think he’ll eventually moved. He’s dropped so much it’s hard to tell where he stands.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

An an ESPN draft blog quote from today.

A scout said:

I don’t think three weeks of good defense tells me Green is a shortstop. If he hasn’t shown that yet, he’s run out of time.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

And a BA draft tracker quote:
We’ve stuck by him as the No. 2 guy behind Strasburg for a long time, but it’s becoming more and more clear that a little case of “draftitis” has Green sliding down boards late in the year.

Link.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lemmings

Seems pretty “en vogue” to hate on Green right now. Kid’s hitting .380 in a pitchers’ league with his home park being a pitcher’s park. Sure, the power has been disappointing, but he’s been every bit the player Tulo was in college.

If Green does fall past the top 10, some team will get quite the steal. I wouldn’t say that in a lot of other years, but this draft class is ultra-weak. Given the available talent, he should go in the top 7.

by guru4u on May 12, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's the thing...

Green’s hitting .395/.451/.568 in Pac 10 play, 91 plate appearances. Made 4 errors in 21 games. 3 for 6 stealing bases. 15 strikeouts, 8 walks, 1 of them intentional. Hasn’t homered yet. I’m failing to see where the pluses are in terms of production.

As for scouting reports, they’ve been pretty negative this year. He just seems to be the opposite kind of player from what everyone expected him to be. Having a great summer raises expectations, and he hasn’t met them.

All in all, he’s not a top talent, just a good talent.

by Andy Seiler on May 12, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

My projection..

for Grant Green is that he goes #5 to Baltimore. His scouting reports still grade out very highly, and Baltimore’s in a good place to engage in some roster-shaping if they’re on the fence about who the BPA is. The organization has an incredible young core of Weiters, Jones, Markakis, Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta, and have multi-year solutions at every position on the diamond but SS. I’m all about BPA in general, but I think Green fits too perfectly for the Orioles to pass up. This is assuming that the scouts who loved him pre-season haven’t completely jumped off the ship, but everything I’ve read from BA suggests that this is the case.

by slamcactus on May 11, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Changes

I am intrigued by the changes, particularly those reflecting the falling stock of Green and Tate. What do you know about why Tate has fallen?
I would love for the Jays to draft Trout, but am also curious about reports (from a commenter here) that LaCava was seen scouting Chad James. Is the Jays’ unwillingness to draft HS pitchers in the past so strongly impressed as to make that possibility a “believe it after it happens, maybe” scenario?
Again – thanks for your efforts in this.

by ofsticksandbats on May 11, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions  

X

As for Tate, the questions will his hit tool have continued to be unanswered long enough that the concern is becoming genuine. Before, it could be written off on his lack of focus on baseball. Now, it’s just something that continues to stick. He’s just not a top hitting prospect. Talent’s there, skills are not.

As for the Jays, yeah, I’d need to see them draft a high school arm that high to believe they’d do it. They love their athletic position players, and by no means is this an overdraft for Trout. So when putting the two side by side, I think they choose Trout quite easily. Teams have to do their due diligence of course, so that’s probably why they’ve been seen scouting James. He’ll probably be on the board for them at that point, or maybe would have gone off just a few picks before. It’s good to see all your options in person.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Correction

the questions with* his hit tool

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is the Jays’ unwillingness to draft HS pitchers in the past

FWIW, klaw said in his chat that this year is the most they have scouted HS pitchers since JP has been the GM

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
Scout to KG: On Sandoval: "Man, that fat [expletive]-er can hit."

by knockoutking on May 14, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Steven Strasburg

I agree that Strasburg will be selected #1 but here’s the question. Where will he start his pro career? Rookie ball, A-ball, majors???? Hmm

by brayncincy on May 11, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions  

All depends on the signing date.

Those that think he’ll sign quickly to get his pro career started quickly are far too optimistic. I see late July as the most optimistic possibility. In that case, he probably gets a relief cameo or two in high-A, preparing for a AA start to 2010.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Boras Paxton

Andy,

I read this "One talent evaluator has Aaron Crow and James Paxton in front of UNC’s Alex White. “White’s command isn’t there, and the lack of a consistent breaking ball concerns me.” from Jason Churchill ESPN.

Whats his chances of creeping into the Top 10?

by sizzler on May 11, 2009 5:52 PM EDT reply actions  

None.

Paxton’s not a top ten guy. I think that evaluator was saying that White’s not deserving of a top ten spot.

However, there’s always that 1% chance something crazy happens.

by Andy Seiler on May 11, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scheppers went 4.0 innings allowing five runs on five hits while walking two and striking out five.

http://www.saintsbaseball.com/news/saintsnews/index.html?article_id=953

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on May 12, 2009 1:05 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah.

And Crow was better. Man, this is confusing.

by Andy Seiler on May 12, 2009 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Madison Younginer

I know he’s expressed a strong commitment to school, and you mentioned that the Yankees have a big enough budget to get him signed.

Do you have any sense about how much money it would take to sign him? If he’s taken in the last third of the first round, is he a big threat to go to school unless he’s given top 10 money? Top 15?

by AstroAndy on May 12, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions  

He'll sign for probably somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million.

That’s just a guess. Anywhere above slot for that spot will probably get it done.

by Andy Seiler on May 12, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just wanted to express my thanks

Really enjoy reading these. Keep em up!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions  

California players

Crosschecker ranked Tim Wheeler as 4th in California. Storen is third. Grant Green is second and Strasburg is first, obviously.

by bigfatfan on May 12, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Gibson

People worried about David Price’s usage in college too and he turned out ok.

I personally feel that the usage he is getting right now can be compared to what he would get in the lower levels of minor league ball. Once drafted I think he is a year to 1.5 years from MLB time in a rotation.

I think Orioles go offense as do the Giants, Gibson could fall to the Reds.

by backtocali on May 13, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Pitching this year

I understand that most people think this draft is relatively weak, and it certainly is in terms of the hitting prospects. What about the pitching prospects? Is this an unusually strong year (past Strasburg, say?). It definitely seems stronger than 2008, but what about in relation to 2007 (Price, Porcello, Parker, etc)?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on May 14, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe crosschecker has 21 of the first round picks as pitchers. They just posted their new first round. So they must think that the pitching talent is there.

by bigfatfan on May 14, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks, but...

I appreciate all the detail and rundown.

But there’s no way the A’s will take Brothers there. There’s been a slow, subtle shift inside management and a realization that they need to invest in higher upside players. They will not make the safe pick there. They won’t take a college pitcher. Not with that clump of position players coming in at 14-16 still on the board.

by DavidS on May 14, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Dustin Ackley

I have followed him throughout his college career, even though I hate UNC. He comes with some pretty good company of guys that I have studied closely, Lincecum, Longoria, LaPorta, and Smoak. I find he’s deserving of being even a #1 pick, he just happens to have the luck of being in Stras’ draft.

Get Peavy already! I want my #44 jersey!

by Cub Style on May 17, 2009 9:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Not so sure about that

There’s still a question of whether he can play CF. If he can, he’d be worthy of the #1 pick in most years. I just don’t think he’ll hit for enough power to be an All-Star 1B. His route running in CF is still very sharp, but it is painfully obvious that his arm has still not yet fully healed.

by guru4u on May 19, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

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